2010 Regional Economic Outlook

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "2010 Regional Economic Outlook"

Jasper Nelson
6 years ago
Views:

1 2010 Regional Economic Outlook Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Department of Economics College of Social and Behavioral Sciences Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis

2 Chinese Calendar vs. Proposed U.S. Calendar Chinese Calendar 2009, Year of the Ox 2010, Year of the Tiger U.S. Calendar 2009, Year of Ox Poo 2010, Year of the Marginally Unhappy Tax Payer

3 Annual Growth County Population Growth, /09 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% OFM Kootenai Spokane 7 Border Counties Source: U.S. Census, WA OFM, and author s calculations.

4 City Population Growth in 2008 and 2009 Dalton Gardens 0.3% Spirit Lake Hayden Coeur d'alene 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% Census 2008 Rathdrum 3.3% Post Falls 4.2% Millwood -0.3% Spokane 0.5% Spokane Valley 0.6% Medical Lake Deer Park Cheney 0.7% 3.1% 3.6% OFM 2009 Liberty Lake 4.2% Airway Heights 5.2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Annual Growth Source: U.S. Census, WA OFM, and author s calculations.

5 Regional Unemployment Rates, % Benewah, Shoshone, Stevens, Pend Oreille: 13% to 15% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% E 3% 7 Border Counties Spokane + Kootenai U.S. Source: BLS and author s calculations.

6 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Initial Unemployment Claims, Spokane + Kootenai 12-Month MA 4 Border Counties (WA) 12-Month MA 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2, Source: WA LMEA and ID Employment Security (Kathryn Tacke).

7 Diffusion Index Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Diffusion Index of Initial Unemployment Claims for 18 Central and Eastern WA Counties, Month MA for 18 Counties Source: WA LMEA and author s calculations.

8 Annual Growth Non-Farm Employment Growth, % 4% 3.7% Falls Outside of Low Range of 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast Range SPK + KOOT 3% 2% 1.8% 2.4% High 3.0% 1.1% 1% 0.3% 0% -1% -2% -0.4% E Point 0.5% -3% -4% -3.8% -3.0% Low -1.0% -5% U.S. Spokane + Kootenai Source: BLS and author s calculations.

9 Jan-Aug, Employment Growth by Sector, Jan-Aug % 0% -0.2% Total Non-Farm Goods Producing Private Service Producing Government 0.4% -2% -2.0% -2.5% -1.6% -4% -3.3% -6% -5.9% -8% -10% -10.2% -12% Spokane Kootenai Source: BLS and author s calculations.

10 Real Annual Growth Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth, % 3% 2.8% 2.4% Falls Outside Low Range of 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast Range SPK + KOOT 2% 2.0% 1.6% High 1.0% 1% 0% -1% -2% E -0.9% -1.4% Point 0.0% -3% -4% -3.1% -3.0% Low -1.0% U.S. Spokane + Kootenai Source: BEA, BLS, and author s calculations.

11 Real Annual Growth Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth, % 5% 4.8% SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment, Veterans, Income Maintenance. 4% 4.0% 3.4% 3% 2% 1% 2.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0% -1% % -3% -2.6% -2.0% Earnings Dividends, Interest, Rent Transfer Payments Source: BEA, BLS, and author s calculations.

Annual Growth Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, 2006 2010 15% Falls Outside of Low 2010 Forecast 10% 10% 8% Range of 2009 Forecast Range SPK ROC 7% 5% 4% High 5.

12 Annual Growth Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, % Falls Outside of Low 2010 Forecast 10% 10% 8% Range of 2009 Forecast Range SPK ROC 7% 5% 4% High 5.5% 5.5% 0% -5% -10% E -2% -5% -6% Point 1.5% 1.5% -15% -13% Low -2.5% -2.5% Spokane City Rest of County Source: WA DOR and author s calculations.

13 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Total Residential Units Permitted Residential Building Permits, Month MA of Total Residential Units Permitted Kootenai Spokane Source: U.S. Census and author s calculations.

14 Annual Growth Nominal Existing Home Price Growth, % 2010 Forecast 15% 17% 16% Falls in Low Range of 2009 Forecast Range SPK KOOT 10% 9% High 0% 7% 7% 5% 0% 3% 2% 2% 1% E Point -6% -3% -5% -3% -3% -5% -5% Low -12% -13% -10% U.S. Spokane Kootenai Source: BLS, FHFA, and author s calculations.

15 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 AIA Billings Index, Jan Sept AIA Billings Index AIA Sector Billings Index U.S. Billings West Billings 25 Institutional Firms Commercial/Industrial Firms Source: AIA.

16 % of Non-Current Loans to Total Loans Regional Non-Current Loans, 4Q Q % 6.3% 6% 5% 4.4% 5.1% 4% 3.6% 4.4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2009 Quarter Spokane + Kootenai Banks U.S. Spokane + Kootenai CU Source: FDIC, NCUA, and author s calculations.

17 Real Annual Growth Real Deposit Growth, June 2000 June % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Spokane + Kootenai U.S. Source: FDIC and author s calculations.

18 Q 2002 = 100 Regional Hart Index to 3Q Hart Index S&P 500 Source:

Regional Company Market Values, 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 Financials Industrials Retail and Services Company % Change AmericanWest Bancorp.

19 Regional Company Market Values, 3Q Q 2009 Financials Industrials Retail and Services Company % Change AmericanWest Bancorp. -60% Idaho Independent Bank -60% Intermountain Community Bank -62% Northwest Bancorp. -57% Sterling Financial -86% Avista -5% Coeur d Alene Mines +83% Hecla Mining +36% Itron -22% Key Tronic +4% Potlatch -38% Ambassadors Group -3% Coldwater Creek +42% NightHawk Radiology -7% Red Lion Hotels -29% Source:

20 Millions of Dollars Revenues of 5 Regional Hospitals, 1Q Q 2009 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $- Source: Mark Wagner.

21 Thousands of Non-Farm Payroll Employees Multiplier Impacts and the Road to Recovery E Year, Spokane + Kootenai Source: BLS and author s calculations.

22 The Employment Multiplier Concept Total Employment Impact 1 + ½ + ½ = 2 workers Impact Multiplier = 2 Mechanic s Shop: ½ Time Additional Mechanic Construction Firm: Additional Full-Time Dump Truck Operator Doctor s Office: ½ Time Additional Nurse

23 Multipliers of Hard Hit Industries in Spokane County These Sectors account for 60% of Payroll Job Losses Sector Job Losses Since 2007 (payroll employ.) Estimated 2007 Multiplier Estimated Employment Impact Const., Log., Mining Finance and Insurance -2, , ,540 Retail -2, ,990 Moral: How quickly regional employment recovers will depend, in part, on the sectors that recover first and the size of their impact multipliers. Source: WA ESD, IMPLAN model, Dr. David Bunting, and author s calculations.

24 Forecast Summary In 2010: Income and Employment growth will be less than 1%. Taxable sales growth will be in the 1.5% to 3% range. Existing home price growth will be zero or slightly negative. Regional banking sector will continue with conservative lending practices due to continued problem loans, regulatory pressure, and political uncertainty. Regional recovery will depend, in part, on which sectors recover first and their employment multipliers. Exporting industries and healthcare will probably be bright spots.

Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. College of Business and Pubic Administration Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis

Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. College of Business and Pubic Administration Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis 2011 Regional Economic Outlook Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. gforsyth@ewu.edu College of Business and Pubic Administration Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis Old Economy vs. New Economy Sweet