Economic Outlook. School Board Meeting April 26, 2016

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1 Economic Outlook School Board Meeting April 26, 2016

2 Global Economy 2

3 Global Economy International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global economic growth outlook to 3.2% Decrease of 0.2% from outlook issued in January 2016 Only marginally above what IMF previously considered a technical recession globally (3%). World economy is increasingly at risk of stalling Chinese slowdown Weak commodity prices Rich countries still struggling to escape legacies of the financial crisis Source: Wall Street Journal, April 12,

4 United States Economy 4

5 US Economy US Economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.4% for the full year of Economic growth continues to be fueled by consumer spending while investment and net exports continue to drag. Fed s March meeting economic growth expanding at a moderate pace despite global economic and financial developments of recent months. Source: PFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Review March

Oil staged a rebound in March, climbing to over $40 a barrel.

6 US Economy Inflation continued on a gradual path towards Fed s target of 2%. Wage growth also continued to modestly improve, rising 2.3% yearover-year in March. Oil staged a rebound in March, climbing to over $40 a barrel. Consumer confidence improved in March as employment opportunities remained abundant and equity prices rebounded. Source: PFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Review March

5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 13-Month 5.4 U.S. Unemployment 5.2 Rates 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.

7 Month 5.4 U.S. Unemployment 5.2 Rates Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: United States Dept. of Labor 7

8 Volusia Demographics and Economic Trends 8

9 State of Florida U6 Annual Average Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rates - Florida and Volusia County Volusia County U3 Unemployment Rate By Quarter Source: Q VC Economic Development, February 5,

10 Volusia County continues to grow. In 2015 Volusia s population was 506,494 and is projected to go to 521,743 by the year Average household size has remained consistent at Volusia County Economy Income Median Household income $42,109 $50,261 Average Household income $57,069 $64,866 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. ESRI Forecast Published and updated by: Volusia County Division of Economic Development 10

11 POPULATION GROWTH BY AGE GROUP 80,000 70, ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2015 and Published and updated by Volusia County Division of Economic Development 11

12 Volusia County Schools is the No. 1 Employer in Volusia County Per Department of Economic Opportunity Local Area Unemployment Statistics, here are the top Volusia Employers as of November 2015: Business/Organization Number of Employees Volusia County Schools 7,742 Halifax Health 4,294 Florida Hospital all Divisions 4,040 Volusia County Government 3,333 Publix Supermarkets, Inc. 3,241 State of Florida 2,758 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 1,875 Daytona State College 1,711 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University 1,483 U.S.Government 1,216 Total Employees 31,693 Publication: VC Data Report, February

13 Daytona Speedway s Four Hundred Million Dollar Renovation ECONOMIC GROWTH JetBlue s Non-Stop Flights, Daytona Beach to JFK Embry Riddle Aeronautical begins site work for New Aerospace Research Park 13

14 Local Economy is picking up. Residential permit activity is up significantly in Value of Permits $ Million 140 Residential Permits by Quarters Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Residential Permits $41-61 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Source: Fourth Quarter 2015 Economic Update dated February 5, Cities and County permit offices reporting new construction activity 14

15 Summary Volusia continues to grow in many respects and outpace the national economy. The Florida Education Finance Plan (FEFP) for next fiscal year. School taxable value increased Reduction in required local effort Increased funding per student is 0.66% funding per student = $6, funding per student = $6, Increase funding per student = $

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The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth