US Economic Indicators: Leading & Coincident Indicators
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1 US Economic Indicators: Leading & Coincident Indicators February 1, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Leading & Coincident Indicators 1 Lagging Indicators 2 Coincident Indicators 3 Coincident & Leading Indicators 4 Components of Leading Economic Indicators 5 Components of Coincident Economic Indictors 6 Resource Utilization & Corporate Profit Margin 7-9 February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
3 Figure 1. Leading & Coincident Indicators LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2016=, sa, ratio scale) LEI CEI Figure 2. RATIO LEADING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Page 1 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
4 Figure 3. LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2016=), ratio scale Lagging Indicators Figure 4. RATIO LAGGING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Page 2 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
5 Coincident Indicators Figure 5. COINCIDENT INDICATORS (2010=, sa ratio scale) Numbers above time line reflect number of months of expansion. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
6 15 Figure 6. Coincident & Leading Indicators REAL GDP & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) CEI (2.1) Real GDP (2.5) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board Figure 7. REAL GDP & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) Q LEI (5.7) Real GDP (2.5) Page 4 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
7 Figure 9. Components of Leading Economic Indicators COMPONENTS OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average Workweek (hours, sa) Building Permits (million units, saar) Jobless Claims (thousands, sa) Average of Conference Board & University of Michigan Expectations Indexes (normalized index) Consumer Goods Orders (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) S&P 500 Composite Price Index ( =10, nsa) ISM New Orders Index (50+=increasing, sa) Jan Leading Credit Index (normalized index, percent) Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) Interest Rate Spread (basis points, nsa) Page 5 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
8 Figure 10. Components of Coincident Economic Indictors COMPONENTS OF COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (ratio scale) Payroll Employment (millions, sa) Nov Oct Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments (trillion 2005 dollars, saar) Oct Manufacturing & Trade Sales (billion 2005 dollars) Nov Industrial Production 2012=, sa Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve Board. Page 6 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
9 Resource Utilization & Corporate Profit Margin Figure 11. LEI/CEI vs. RESOURCE UTILIZATION RATE LEI/CEI Resource Utilization Rate* * Average of all industries capacity utilization rate and employment rate, i.e., percentage of labor force that is employed. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, and Conference Board. 12 Figure 12. CORPORATE PROFITS MARGIN IN GDP* & LEI/CEI (after-tax profits as a percent of nominal GDP) Q Profit Margin*.9 2 LEI/CEI * After-tax profits reported to IRS (excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Conference Board. Page 7 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
10 Resource Utilization & Corporate Profit Margin Figure 13. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1/ ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Conference Board LEI (2010=) Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 14. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1/ Conference Board LEI (2010=) right scale 120 YRI Weekly Leading Index* (1992=, 4-wa) left scale * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 8 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
11 Resource Utilization & Corporate Profit Margin Figure 15. YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX YRI Weekly Leading Index* ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) / * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Figure 16. COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2016=, sa, ratio scale) 1984 Continental Illinois 19 S&L Crisis 1994 Mexican Peso 1997 Pacific Rim /11 Attacks 2007 Subprime Meltdown 1970 Penn Central 1974 Franklin National 2000 Tech Bubble 2008 Lehman & AIG 1987 Black Monday 1998 Russia & LTCM Silver Bubble 1982 Drysdale & Mexico Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Page 9 / February 1, 2018 / Leading & Coincident Indicators www.
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