US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Transcription

1 US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators December 1, 213 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 ECRI 4 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index US Unemployment Claims 6-7 US Petroleum Usage 8 US Electricity Output 9-1 US Railcar Loadings US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 1 US Business Credit 16 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17 US Commercial Paper 18 US Liquid Assets 19-2 US Profits Cycle Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 24 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 2 December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

3 Key Global Indicators 6 6 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Volume of World Exports (2=, sa) 12/9 Sep * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (CPB). 6 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 21 6 Sep 19 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) 12/9 17 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Page 1 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

4 14 13 Figure 3. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* Global Boom Bust Barometer / * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 4. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER COMPONENTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel) / * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

5 1 Figure. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS US Leading Indicators / ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) 11 9 Oct 9 7 Conference Board LEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 6. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 11/ ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Oct Conference Board CEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 4 Page 3 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

6 -2 Figure 7. ECRI-WLI & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) ECRI Spread* ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) /9 11/ Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * High yield corporate less 1-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 8. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P S&P ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 12/ Page 4 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

7 Figure 9. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Source: Citigroup. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Based on US Dollar / Figure 1. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 12/ Based on G1 Currencies Source: Citigroup. -1 Page / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

8 Figure 11. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) US Unemployment Claims Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 11/ Figure 12. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 11/ Page 6 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

9 11 1 Figure 13. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa) US Unemployment Claims Continuing Continuing + Extended* / / * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 14. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing Continuing + Extended Nov 11/16 11/ * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

10 22 Figure 1. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (USAGE) (million barrels per day, 2-week ma, sa) US Petroleum Usage Total / * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Source: US Department of Energy. 3.2 Figure 16. US MOTOR GASOLINE SUPPLIED vs. MILES TRAVELED Sep / Gasoline Supplied (million barrels per day, 2-wa) Vehicle Miles Traveled (trillion miles, 12-month sum) Source: US Department of Energy. 7. Page 8 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

11 8 78 Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 2-week moving average) US Electricity Output / * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q3 2 11/ Electric Utility Output (2-week moving average) Real GDP * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

12 US Electricity Output Figure 19. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (2-week moving average) 11/3 Oct Electricity Output (GW hours) Total Manufacturing Production * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute Figure 2. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (2-week moving average) Q3 11/ Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 1 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

13 US Railcar Loadings 6 Figure 21. RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) Total 6 11/ * Car loads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor s. 4 Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 3 Car Loads / /3 2 2 Intermodal Source: Atlantic Systems. 1 Page 11 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

14 3 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES US Railcar Loadings /3 1 1 Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) Sales (million units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and Federal Reserve. 1 7 Figure 24. RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) 11/3 1 8 Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems. 2 Page 12 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

15 US Railcar Loadings Figure 2. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) Coal Nonmetallic Minerals /3 11/ Chemicals & Petroleum Products 11/3 Pulp & Paper Products / Waste & Scrap Materials Metals & Products /3 11/ Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. Page 13 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

16 US Railcar Loadings 23 Figure 26. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL CONTAINERS 11/ Oct Trucking Index (2=, sa) 1 13 Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, 26-wa) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems Figure 27. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) / Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 2 Page 14 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

17 US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits Figure 28. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) Oct / Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (12-month sum) * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics. 4 4 Figure 29. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) /6 Oct Deposits (26-day sum) Receipts (12-month sum) Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

18 Figure 3. US Business Credit SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 11/27 C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Sep Figure 31. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) 11/ NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12/ Page 16 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

19 Figure 32. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Mortgage Applications: New Purchase Index (4-week average, sa) New Plus Existing Single Family Home Sales (million units, saar) Source: Mortgage Bankers of America. MBA Mortgage Applications Survey Oct 11/ Figure MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa) / Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Page 17 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

20 US Commercial Paper 24 Figure 34. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) Total Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) 12/ / Asset Backed Total Financial Nonfinancial 12/ / / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 18 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

21 US Liquid Assets Figure 3. LIQUID ASSETS* (billion dollars, sa, ratio scale) 11/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 36. LIQUID ASSETS* As a percent of Wilshire S&P Market Cap Nov 11/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal. Page 19 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

22 Figure 37. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) US Liquid Assets Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** /2 11/ * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 38. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) Held By: Retail* Institutions** 11/ /2.6.4 * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

23 US Profits Cycle Figure 39. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS Forward Earnings* 12/ US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=) Oct * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. 12 Figure 4. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) Oct 12/ 2-4 Forward Earnings* -2-8 US Coincident Economic Indicators * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. Page 21 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

24 US Profits Cycle Figure 41. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS Forward Earnings* (weekly) 12/ Oct Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 42. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) Oct 12/ * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 22 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

25 2 1 Figure 43. US Profits Cycle S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Oct 12/ Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 44. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) / -2 S&P Forward Earnings* - Aggregate Hours * 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 23 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

26 18 Figure 4. Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX US Boom Bust Barometer* 11/ Consumer Comfort Index (index plus ) / * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. 2 Figure 46. YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P INDEX / YRI Fundamental Stock Market Indicator* S&P Index * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 24 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

27 Figure 47. GASOLINE PRICES (dollars per gallon) Gasoline Prices & Rig Count /27 12/9 National average pump price (weekly) Futures price (daily)* * Nearby contract. Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics Figure 48. BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT (units) Total US Gas Oil 12/ / / Source: Baker Hughes Inc. 2 Page 2 / December 1, 213 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators www.

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