Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Transcription

1 Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios December 13, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Bulls & Bears 1 Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3. Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. 3 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. & Over 3. AAII Sentiment Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 6 Bulls & Bears 7 Bull & Bears (-wa) 8-9 December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

3 Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS Bulls & Bears 3 Ratio Bull/Bear Ratio* Ratio Nov 8.13 Dec. Dec Percentage Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Nov Dec Dec Percentage Correction Camp Correction Nov 8.6 Dec.7 Dec Source: Investors Intelligence. 1 1 Page 1 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

4 Bull/Bear Ratio Over Figure. S&P INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence Figure 3. DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

5 Bull/Bear Ratio Under Figure. S&P INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence Figure. DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 3 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

6 Figure 6. Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. & Over 3. S&P % FROM -DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Figure 7. S&P % FROM -DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

7 1 Figure 8. AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS AAII Sentiment 1 7 AAII Bull Ratio* 7 1/ AAII Bull/Bear Ratio 3 1 1/ Latest Readings Bulls Bears Nov Dec Bulls Bears * AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). 1/ Page / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

8 .. 3. Figure 9. Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Bull/Bear Ratio (-week average) Consumer Confidence Expectations Index Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board Figure 1. BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX Bull/Bear Ratio (-week average) Consumer Comfort Index Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg. Page 6 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

9 Bulls & Bears Figure 11. S&P FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO 3 S&P Forward P/E* (18.) Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (.1) 3 1/ * Average weekly price divided by -week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 199, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Investors Intelligence. 7 Figure 1. S&P FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 3 6 S&P Forward P/E* (18.) Weekly Consumer Comfort Index** (.3) 1/ 1/ * Average weekly price divided by -week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Index plus 1. Source: Standard & Poor s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Bloomberg. Page 7 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

10 Bull & Bears (-wa). Figure 13. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS.... Bull/Bear Ratio week moving average (3.3) Source: Investors Intelligence... 9 Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS + CORRECTION CAMP (percent) week moving average (8.6) Source: Investors Intelligence. Page 8 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

11 7 Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS (percent) Bull & Bears (-wa) week moving average (17.) Source: Investors Intelligence. 1 8 Figure 16. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS + CORRECTION) / BEARS 8 6 -week moving average (.8) Source: Investors Intelligence. Page 9 / December 13, 17 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.

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