Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate
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1 Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate September 7, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson djohnson@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Federal Funds Rate Futures 1 Federal Funds Rate -3 Yield Curve Federal Funds Rate 5 1-Year Treasury Yield -7 September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
3 Figure 1. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES (percent) 1-month (.5) -month (.3) 3-month (.17) nearby (.1) Federal Funds Rate Futures 9/ Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange... Figure. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: FEDFUNDFUT Error: Invaid equation element ; or missing series :51: Page 1 / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
4 5..5 Figure 3. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent) Federal Funds Rate / Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (ASSUMING 5bps QUARTERLY HIKES) (percent) Page / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
5 Figure 5. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & MONETARY POLICY CYCLE (percent, weekly) Federal Funds Rate / Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denote monetary tightening periods. 1 Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & BUSINESS CYCLE (percent, weekly) / Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page 3 / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
6 Figure 7. Yield Curve US YIELD CURVE* & MONETARY POLICY CYCLE (basis points) / * 1-year Treasury yield less federal funds rate. Monthly through 197, then weekly. Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denote monetary tightening periods. Figure. US YIELD CURVE* & BUSINESS CYCLE (basis points) / * 1-year Treasury yield less federal funds rate. Monthly through 197, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board. Page / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
7 1 1 Figure 9. FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE (percent, weekly) Federal Funds Rate / Figure 1. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & FINANCIAL CRISES (percent, weekly) 197 Penn Central 197 Franklin National 19 Continental Illinois 199 S&L Crisis 199 Mexican Peso 1997 Pacific Rim Crisis 1 WTC Attack Dot.com Crash 7 Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Brexit LTCM/Russian Default Crisis Silver Bubble 19 Drysdale Securities & Mexico Default /9 Page 5 / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
8 1 1 1 Figure YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD & CRISES (percent, monthly) 197 Penn Central 197 Franklin National 1-Year Treasury Yield 19 Continental Illinois 199 S&L Crisis 199 Mexican Peso 1997 Pacific Rim Crisis 1 WTC Attack 7 Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Brexit LTCM/Russian Default Crisis Silver Bubble 19 Drysdale Securities & Mexico Default Aug Figure 1. REAL BOND YIELD & NOMINAL FEDERAL FUNDS RATE Real 1-Year Treasury Yield* (.9) Nominal Federal Funds Rate (1.91) Aug Aug * US Treasury 1-year bond yield minus median forecast of year-over-year CPI inflation rate over the next 1 years using Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters data (monthly series interpolated from quarterly data starting as two quarters per year during Q-1979 until Q-1991 when the data continue with four quarters a year). Source: Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Page / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
9 Figure 13. OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES (percent) 1-Year Treasury Yield Official Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate Target (1.) ECB Deposit Facility Rate (-.) BOJ Overnight Rate (-.5) 9/7 9/7 / Source: Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank and Haver Analytics. - Page 7 / September 7, 1 / Market Briefing: Federal Funds Rate www.
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