Consumer Confidence Survey

Transcription

1 Consumer Confidence The May 2017 round of the Consumer Confidence (CCS) 1 conducted by the Reserve Bank in six metropolitan cities - Bengaluru; Chennai; Hyderabad; Kolkata; Mumbai; and New Delhi - obtained 4,881 responses on households perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income and spending. Highlights: I. The Current Situation Index (CSI) 2 recovered from the pessimistic zone in May 2017, pulled up by improved sentiments on the economic situation, price situation and households income. II. The Future Expectations Index (FEI) also rose by 1.7 percentage points over its March 2017 level on an improved outlook on all parameters, barring a marginal decline in spending (Chart 1) Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Indices Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Current Situation Index Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Future Expectations Index Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17 III. Households current perceptions on the economic situation improved slightly in May 2017, though net responses ed in the negative zone for the second consecutive round. Respondents outlook on the future economic situation was, however, more optimistic (Table 1). 1 The survey results are based on the views of the respondents only. 2 CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = Average of s. 1 5 Pa ge

2 IV. Households current perceptions on their income level witnessed a gradual recovery from the low touched in December Their outlook on income also witnessed a turnaround after a deterioration in the previous two rounds (Table 2). Main Variables Summary based on One year ahead Expectations compared with current compared with 1-year ago situation Mar-17 May-17 Change Mar-17 May-17 Change Economic Situation Income Spending Employment Price Level Consumer Confidence Index Positive Sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round Positive Sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round Negative Sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round Negative Sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round V. Respondents largely maintained optimism on overall spending (Table 3), with sentiments on non-essential spending improving (Table 5). VI. VII. Current perceptions on employment ed pessimistic, although a marginal improvement over the March 2017 responses is discernible (Table 6). The assessment of/ outlook on the current/future price situation showed improvement in the May 2017 round, reversing the pessimism observed in the March 2017 round (Table 8). ***** 2 5 Pa ge

3 Improved Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on Economic Situation Same Worsened improve worsen Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Income Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Pa ge

4 Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending-Essential Items Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending-Non-Essential Items Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Improved Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment Same Worsened improve worsen Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Pa ge

5 Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* Dec Mar June Sept Nov Dec Mar May *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has d/price will. ***** 5 5 Pa ge