Economic Indicator Movement Status (Favorable/Unfavorable)

Transcription

1 Economic Indicator Movement Status (Favorable/Unfavorable) Monthly Unemployment Rate Weekly Job Advertisements Monthly Online Job Advertisements Monthly Domestic Building Activity Monthly Non-Domestic Building Activity Quarterly Median House Prices Quarterly ABN Registrations Key Points: The unemployment rate for the Barwon Western District in May 21 was 5.4% (an increase of.7 percentage points compared to the previous month). During May 21 an average of 152 regional job advertisements were advertised each week in the Geelong Advertiser (a decrease of 7.9% on the previous month). During May 21 there were 486 new regional job advertisements added to the Seek website (an increase of 3.4% on the previous month). A total of 22 domestic new building permits were issued in the City of Greater Geelong in April 21 (a decrease of 18.2% on the previous month). A total of 63 non-domestic building permits were issued in the City of Greater Geelong in April 21 (an increase of 37.% on the previous month). The median house price in the City of Greater Geelong increased to $354, in the March 21 quarter (an increase of 4.1% on the previous quarter). A total of 854 new ABNs were registered in the City of Greater Geelong during the March 21 quarter (an increase of 65.5% on the previous quarter). Consumer Confidence: The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7% in June, from 18. in May to 11.9 in June. (No update since previous report) Business Confidence: Business confidence fell for the third month in a row in May (down 8 points) to +5 index points, which is now below its long-term average of +7 index points. (No update since previous report)

2 Monthly Unemployment Rate - Australian Bureau of Statistics The unemployment rate for the Barwon Western District in May 21 was 5.4%, an increase of.7 percentage points on the previous month and a decrease of.3pts compared to May 29. The May unemployment rate for the Barwon Western District was.1 percentage points lower than the Victorian unemployment rate (5.5%) and.2pts higher than the unemployment rate for Australia (5.2%). A twelve month average of the unemployment rate to May 21 for the Barwon Western District was 5.3%,.3pts lower than that of both Victoria (5.6%) and Australia (5.6%). Barwon Western District Victoria Australia Unemployment Rate Points Unemployment Rate Points Unemployment Rate Points Latest Month (May 21) 5.4% 5.5% 5.2% Previous Month (April 21) 4.7% +.7pts 5.6% -.1pts 5.4% -.2pts Same Month Last Year (May 29) 12 Month Average (to May 21) 5.7% -.3pts 6.% -.5pts 5.8% -.6pts 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5 Year Trend Line Analysis (May 5 - May 1) -1.4pts +.3pts Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics * Change in percentage points is based on differences between the latest month and earlier figures as specified. Monthly Unemployment Rate May 25 May 21 (%) Barwon Western District Victoria M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

3 Job Advertisements Barwon Region On average, 152 regional job vacancies were advertised each week in the Geelong Advertiser during May 21. This represents a decrease of 7.9% on the average for April 21 yet an increase of 2.7% on the figure for May 29. A total of 486 new regional job vacancies were advertised online at Seek in May 21, an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous month and an increase of 26.6% on May 29. Geelong Advertiser Seek Limited Average Weekly Job Ads New Monthly Job Ads** Latest Month (May 21) % Previous Month (April 21) % Same Month Last Year (May 29) % % YEARLY AVERAGES 12 Month Average (29) % 12 Month Average (28) % 12 Month Average (25) % - - Source: Geelong Advertiser Career One Saturday employment section & Seek Limited * change is based on differences between the latest month and earlier figures as specified. ** Relates to monthly job ad volume for the area Geelong as specified by the employer. Job Advertisements, Barwon Region, May 25 May 21 Number 8 Ave.Weekly Job Ads (Geelong Advertiser) New Monthly Job Ads (seek.com.au May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Source: Geelong Advertiser Career One Saturday employment section & Seek Limited Includes vacancies for all paid full-time, part-time and casual positions in the Barwon Region. The spike in job ads in June 26 is due to recruitment for a new call centre.

4 Domestic Building Activity City of Greater Geelong Number and Value of Domestic New Building Permits A total of 22 domestic new building permits were issued in the City of Greater Geelong in April 21, a decrease of 18.2% on the previous month and an increase of 17.6% compared to April 29. The value of domestic new building permits in April 21 was $41.7m, a decrease of 16.1% on the previous month and an increase of 38.1% on the value of permits in April 29. Number of Permits Value of Permits MONTHLY TOTALS Latest Month (April 21) 22 $41.7m -18.2% Previous Month (March 21) 269 $49.7m -16.1% Same Month Last Year (Apr 29) % $3.2m +38.1% ANNUAL TOTALS 29 2,35 $364.2m -.5% 28 2,317 $329.3m +1.6% 25 1, % $284.3m +28.1% Source: Building Commission * change is based on differences between the latest month and earlier figures as specified. Number and Value of Domestic Permits - New Buildings 3 6 No. of Permits Value of Permits ($m) 25 5 Number of Permits Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Value of Permits ($m) 1 Source: Building Commission

5 Non-Domestic Building Activity City of Greater Geelong Number and Value of Non-Domestic Building Permits A total of 63 non-domestic building permits were issued in the City of Greater Geelong in April 21, an increase of 37.% on the previous month and an increase of 26.% compared to April 29. The value of non-domestic building permits was $3.7m in April 21, an increase of 8.5% on the previous month and an increase of 338.6% on the figure for April 29. Number of Permits Value of Permits MONTHLY TOTALS Latest Month (April 21) 63 $3.7m +37.% Previous Month (March 21) 46 $28.3m +8.5% Same Month Last Year (Apr 29) % $7.m % ANNUAL TOTALS $3.7m -5.4% $35.5m -14.2% % $21.m +49.6% Source: Building Commission * change is based on differences between the latest month and earlier figures as specified. Number and Value of Non-Domestic Building Permits 9 8 No. of Permits Value of Permits ($m) Number of Permits Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Value of Permits ($m) 2 Source: Building Commission

6 Median House Prices City of Greater Geelong The median house price in the City of Greater Geelong increased to $354, in the March 21 quarter, an increase of 4.1% on the previous quarter and an increase of 12.4% on the March 29 quarter. Median House Price QUARTERLY FIGURES Latest Quarter (March 21) Previous Quarter (Dec 29) $354,p $34,r +4.1% Same Quarter Last Year (March 29) $315, +12.4% ANNUAL FIGURES 29p $328, $319, +3.% 27 $31, +6.% Source: Real Estate Institute of Victoria * change is based on differences between the latest month and earlier figures as specified. p - preliminary r revised Quarterly Median House Prices $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Quarter Source: Real Estate Institute of Victoria

7 New ABN Registrations City of Greater Geelong A total of 854 new ABNs were registered in the City of Greater Geelong during the March 21 quarter, an increase of 65.5% on the previous quarter. The largest increases were experienced in the following industries: Personal & Other Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Administrative & Support Services. A total of 2,962 new ABNs were registered in the year to the March 21 quarter, a decrease of 5.2% compared to the year to the December 29 quarter. Quarterly Year to Industry Latest (Mar 21) Previous (Dec 29) Trend Mar 21 Dec 29 Trend Accommodation & Food Services Administrative & Support Services Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Arts & Recreation Services Construction Education & Training Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services = 4 3 Financial & Insurance Services Health Care & Social Assistance Information Media & Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining Personal & Other Services ,48 1,357 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Public Administration & Safety Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services Retail Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing Wholesale Trade Totals % 2,962 3, % Source: Department of Innovation, Industry & Regional Development, Small Business Victoria. * ABN registrations are defined as an active and registered ABN (not cancelled or refused) and excludes trusts and super funds. This data is not intended to be an exact count of the number of businesses in the municipality but an indication of the type of industries in the area and the rates of growth for each. Note: Graph to be added as more time series data available.

8 Consumer Sentiment Index June 21 The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7% in June from 18. in May to 11.9 in June. (An Index over 1 indicates that optimists outweigh pessimists) Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented, Following the 7% fall in May, the cumulative 12.3% fall in the Index over the last two months represents the largest two month fall since March 28. At that time the Reserve Bank had raised rates on two consecutive occasions pushing the variable mortgage rate to 9.35% and the global financial crisis was deepening. We expect that the fall in May was largely due to the Reserve Bank's decision to raise rates for the third consecutive month this year. With the Bank leaving rates on hold in June, the decline in sentiment this month may not be due to rates. Instead it seems to reflect a mixture of concerns about deteriorating conditions abroad, financial market turmoil and uncertainty around the Government's proposed Resource Super Profits Tax." Reasons for concerns with the global economy can be best exemplified by the 6.2% fall in the share market and the 7½c fall in the AUD since the last survey both following substantial declines over the previous month. The Reserve Bank Board next meets on July 6. Clearly we are not changing our view that rates will remain on hold following that meeting. The next significant meeting will be on August 3. At that meeting the Board will have received an update on inflation. We know that with limited spare capacity in labour and housing markets, inflation pressures are building. The Bank is also forecasting above trend growth in both 211 and 212. However this survey does highlight the impact of financial market turmoil on the confidence of households. If this turmoil persists over the next two months, the Board will have a very difficult decision if the new inflation data points to further rising inflation pressures, Mr Evans said. Source: Westpac Banking Corporation Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index. Business Confidence May 21 Business confidence fell for the third month in a row (down 8 points) to +5 index points, which is now below its long term average of +7 index points. Confidence fell sharply in mining (presumably partly due in response to the announcement of the resource super profits tax), wholesale and manufacturing. The tourism-exposed recreation & personal services and transport sectors declined further (although the $A declined, financial market instability may have been a concern). Despite this months fall, confidence was strongest in manufacturing followed by finance, business and property services. Confidence was weakest in transport, recreation & personal services and wholesale. Confidence levels across industry sectors are now much more uniform than in the recent past. (An Index above zero indicates that optimists outweigh pessimists) Source: National Australia Bank Monthly Survey and Economic outlook

9 Prepared By: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT - CITY OF GREATER GEELONG 2ND FLOOR, 131 MYERS STREET PO BOX 14 GEELONG 322 AUSTRALIA TELEPHONE FACSIMILE ecoinfo@geelongcity.vic.gov.au