23 February 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. IMF updates assessment and forecasts for Australia

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "23 February 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. IMF updates assessment and forecasts for Australia"

Transcription

1 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 23 February 2018 This week the IMF updated its assessment of Australia s economy. It noted Australia has been relatively successful in adjusting to the end of the mining investment boom, but as in other advanced economies, average growth in recent years has been slower than pre-gfc levels. The IMF forecasts Australian real GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019, supported by public infrastructure investment and strong non-mining business investment. The IMF anticipates increased public infrastructure spending will provide a welcome lift to productivity and longerterm growth but advises this should be supported by sustained structural policy efforts in promoting innovation and competition, upgrading labor force skills, reducing gender gaps, and advancing broad tax reform. With inflation remaining below the Reserve Bank of Australia s (RBA) target band of 2-3% and the unemployment rate not yet indicating full employment, the IMF recommends that monetary policy should remain accommodative (that is, interest rates should remain low) until demand and inflation are stronger. This assessment is very close to that of the RBA, which has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% since August ABS wages data released this week suggest a gradual pickup in wages may already have commenced. National wage growth (as measured by the ABS Wage Price Index) accelerated to its fastest rate in two years at 2.1% p.a. This pickup was largely driven by new enterprise bargaining agreements in the public sector however. In contrast, private sector wage growth remains near historical lows at 1.9% p.a. With the unemployment rate at 5.5% nationally and relatively high underemployment, ongoing spare capacity in the labour market is likely to keep private sector wage growth slow by historical standards for some time yet, albeit not as slow as the wage growth experienced in 2016 and IMF updates assessment and forecasts for Australia The IMF says Australia s economy is accelerating in 2018 due to an improving global economy, recent strong employment growth and higher infrastructure spending. After relatively slow growth in real GDP in 2016 and 2017, the IMF is forecasting faster growth in 2018 at 2.9% p.a. and 3.1% p.a. in 2019, before gradually falling back towards 2.6% p.a. in 2023 (see chart 1). The deceleration in Australian GDP after 2019 is due to the IMF lowering its estimate of Australia s potential output or potential growth rate (that is, what can be produced in our economy when it is operating at full employment) due to expectations for lower net migration and lower rates of capital accumulation after 2019, reflecting adjustments to the end of the mining boom. 1

2 The IMF notes that in 2018 and 2019, the key risks to Australian growth are likely to come from global forces (financial, geopolitical or other trends) interacting with the Australian economy, rather than from problems within Australia s local economy itself. Chart 1: IMF forecasts for Australian real GDP, % p.a. Source: IMF, February 2018 Note: e = estimate, p = projection With regard to national economic policy, the IMF recommends that Australia implements a broad tax reform package to increase productivity and reduce inequality. This tax package would entail lowering taxes on income from mobile factors of production (capital and labor) and increasing reliance on taxes on immobile factors of production (land) and indirect taxes on consumption, undertaken in a revenue-neutral way. Wage growth accelerates modestly in Q The ABS Wage Price Index 1 for the December quarter (Q4) of 2017 grew by 0.6% q/q and 2.1% p.a. This is slightly faster than 2.0% p.a. in Q and the record lows experienced in late 2016 and early 2017 of 1.9% p.a. (see chart 2). Wage growth in Q continued to be strongest in the public sector and in services industries dominated by the public sector (such as healthcare, public administration and education), driven by a handful of new public sector enterprise agreements. Public sector wages increased by 0.6% q/q and 2.4% p.a. largely because of strong public-sector health care (0.9% q/q) and education (0.8% q/q) increases. Private sector wage growth remains more subdued at 0.5% q/q for the fourth consecutive quarter and 1.9% p.a. Wage growth appears to have lifted from its slowest point in this cycle, but ongoing spare capacity in the labour market (unemployment of 5.5% plus underemployment of 8.4%) is likely to keep 1 For total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses. 2

3 wage growth slow by historical standards for some time yet. Weak inflation is also holding down wage growth, with core and headline inflation both stable at 1.9% p.a. for most of This ongoing weakness in background inflation means that average wages are still growing in real terms across the public sector and across most large private-sector industries (see charts 2 and 3). Chart 2: CPI (headline and core) and WPI (public and private sector), % p.a. Source: ABS, CPI and Wage Price Index, Dec 2017 Across Australia s industries, private sector wage growth ranged from 1.4% p.a. in mining to 2.6% p.a. in healthcare. Private sector wage growth remained stronger than core inflation for half of the industries and including many of the largest employing industries (see chart 3). Private sector wage growth was strongest in healthcare (+2.6% p.a.), followed by arts & recreation (2.5% p.a.), other services (2.4% p.a.) and manufacturing (2.3% p.a.). Private sector wage growth was weakest in mining (+1.4% p.a.), transport & warehousing (1.6% p.a.), retail (1.6% p.a.) and rental & real estate services (+1.6% p.a.). 3

4 Chart 3: Private sector wage growth by industry (original data), Q Source: ABS, Wage Price Index, Dec 2017 Across the states, wage growth was strongest in Victoria (2.4% p.a.), with Victorian public-sector wages increasing by 0.9% q/q and 3.1% over the year, followed by Tasmania (2.2% p.a.) and Queensland (2.2% p.a.). Public sector wage rises were also relatively stronger in Queensland. Wages in Western Australia (1.5% p.a.) and the Northern Territory (1.1% p.a.) are growing more slowly than the other states due to the prevalence of mining jobs in those states, since mining wages are now growing more slowly than in other industries (albeit off a significantly higher base wage) and as the labour market in those states continues to adjust to the post-mining boom period. Chart 4: State and Territories wage growth, % p.a. Source: ABS, Wage Price Index, Dec

5 Average weekly earnings accelerate in second half of 2017 In dollar terms, the ABS estimates that nominal Full-time Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE, which is measured differently to the WPI and is published only twice per year 2 ) for full-time workers increased to $1, in November 2017, up 2.4% from a year earlier. Across industries, private sector employees in the mining industry remain the highest paid on average even though their average pay had fallen from recent boom-time peaks (chart 5). All industries experienced increases in nominal AWOTE over the six months to November AWOTE in IT, media and telecommunications has overtaken AWOTE in finance & insurance and professional services. As a group, industries that provide household services (hospitality, retail trade, healthcare and education) tend to have lower AWOTE than industries that provide business services or industrial goods and services (chart 5). Chart 5: Nominal full-time AWOTE by industry, to Nov 2017 Source: ABS, Average Weekly Earnings, November The AWOTE for full-time adult employees is generally considered the most stable earnings data due to the exclusion of overtime, part-time and junior employees. The WPI and AWOTE data are not comparable and are used for different purposes. Earnings data measures average weekly earnings of employees at a point in time as opposed to the WPI, which measures hourly wage inflation for a basket of jobs. 5

6 Across the states and territories, the highest full-time AWOTE is in the ACT at $ , where there is a high proportion of public sector workers. This is followed by Western Australia at $1, and the Northern Territory at $1,647.90, reflecting a higher proportion of the labour force that is in mining. Tasmania, at $1,356.20, has the lowest AWOTE for full-time workers across the country. Chart 6: Nominal full-time AWOTE by state and territory, Nov 2017 Source: ABS, Average Weekly Earnings, November 2017 More detail on wage growth across states and industries is available in Ai Group s Economics Factsheet: Wage Price Index (WPI) December quarter (Q4) Free online here. Short-term visitor arrivals rise in 2017 This week, the ABS reported short-term movements (for periods of less than 12 months) in and out of Australia by visitors and residents in December Short-term visitor arrivals rose by 5.8% p.a. to 751,400 arrivals in December 2017, to a record high of million visitor arrivals during For short-term visitor arrivals, the top five source countries in 2017 were: China (1,383,600 arrivals, 15.6% of all short-term arrivals and up 13.2% p.a., trend); New Zealand (1,355,600 arrivals, 15.3% of all short-term arrivals and up 1.3% p.a. trend); USA (784,100 arrivals, 8.9% of all short-term arrivals and up 9.2% p.a. trend); UK (724,000 arrivals, 8.2% of all short-term arrivals and down 1.6% p.a. trend); and Singapore (442,400 arrivals, 5.0% of all short-term arrivals and up 2.8% p.a. trend). Also notable was large growth in short-term visitors from India, with visitor arrivals from India 6

7 increasing by 15.6% in China and India s growing middle class are attracted to Australia s clean and unique environment, large retail centres, vibrant cities, fresh food and produce and warm weather. Most of these short-term visitor arrivals are for holiday purposes. Family visits are also increasing (see chart 7). The 2016 census identifies 1.2 million people of Chinese ancestry and 0.6 million of Indian ancestry that call Australia home. Significant numbers of students from these two countries also reside in Australia for short or long-term stays (depending on their course of study). These two factors are likely to be influencing the number of family and friends attracted to Australia for short-term visits. Among Australian residents 885,600 Australian residents returned from a short-term stay overseas in December 2017, up 3.2% from one year earlier. For Australian residents returning from short-term stays overseas, the top five destinations in 2017 were (in order) New Zealand, Indonesia (primarily Bali), USA, UK and Thailand. Chart 7: Short term (under 12 months) visitor arrivals by purpose Source: ABS overseas arrivals and departures, December

8 This week s data and events, 19 February 23 February 2018 Day Date Data / event Data period Current release Mon 19 Feb ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures Dec (M) arrivals -1.7% m/m departures -1.6% m/m Tue 20 Feb RBA Minutes and Cash Rate Decision Feb (M) - ABS Counts of Australian Businesses (A) 2.24 million businesses actively trading in Australia, +3.1% p.a. Wed 21 Feb ABS Wage Price Index Dec (Q) 0.6% q/q, 2.1% p.a. ABS Construction Work Done Dec (Q) -19.4% q/q, +4.6% p.a. Thu 22 Feb ABS Average Weekly Earnings Nov (H) 2.3% p.a. (trend) Fri 23 Feb ABS Energy Account (A) Energy supply +6% p.a. M = monthly. Q = quarterly. H = half-yearly. A = annual. B= bi-annual. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Next week s data and events, 26 February 2 March 2018 Day Date Data/event Data period due for release Previous release Mon 26 Feb ABS Characteristics of Employment Aug 2017 (A) Aug 2016 (A) Wed 28 Feb RBA Financial Aggregates Jan (M) Dec (M): total credit +4.8% p.a. Thu 1 Mar Ai Group Australian PMI Feb (M) Jan (M): 58.2 points ABS Private New Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Dec (Q) Sep (Q): +1.0% q/q, +2.3% p.a. RBA Index of Commodity Prices Feb (M) Jan (M): +7.1% in SDR terms M = monthly. Q = quarterly. H = half-yearly. A = annual. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. 8

9 Australian economy: latest full-year growth rates and government forecasts Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 RBA SoMP (Feb 2018) actual actual f f f f GDP, % change p.a., year end f Unemployment rate, %, year end Inflation (CPI), % change p.a., year end Treasury MYEFO (Dec 2017) actual actual f f p GDP, % change p.a., year average Household consumption, % p.a., year average Dwelling investment, % p.a., year average Business investment, % p.a., year average p Employment growth, % p.a., year end Unemployment rate, %, year end Terms of trade, % change p.a., year end Inflation (CPI), % change p.a., year end Wages (WPI), % change p.a., year end f = forecast. p = projection. Sources: ABS various data; RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), latest quarter; Australian Treasury, MYEFO (Dec 2017). Australian economy: latest indicators Economy FX and commodity prices (Friday morning) RBA official cash rate, % Feb (M) AUD/USD exchange rate US$ Real GDP, % change p.a. Sep (Q) 2.8% Oil price (WTI light crude, USD/BBL) US$62.66 Headline CPI, % change p.a. Dec (Q) 1.9% Gold price (USD/OZ) US$1, Unemployment rate, % trend Jan (M) 5.5% - Copper price (USD/tonne, LME spot) US$7,002.0 Australian Industry Group monthly performance of industry indexes Australian PMI Jan (M) 58.2 Australian PSI Jan (M) 54.9 Australian PCI Jan (M) 54.3 M = monthly. Q = quarterly. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Arrows represent direction of movement relative to last week for prices, and last observation for growth rates and indexes. Sources: ABS various data; Ai Group; Australian Financial Review market prices (as of Thu); London Metals Exchange market prices (as of Fri). Ai Group Economics and Research Team Julie Toth Chief Economist (03) David Richardson Senior Economist (02) Colleen Dowling Senior Research Analyst (03) Andrew Bridger Economist (03) Molly Knox Research Assistant (03) economics@aigroup.com.au 9

16 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

16 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 16 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Australia s labour market continues to expand strongly in 2018. Jobs growth seems to be stronger than had been anticipated by the RBA, Government and financial

More information

9 March 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Services and construction stay on track in February

9 March 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Services and construction stay on track in February AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 March 2018 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate on hold at a record low of 1.50%, where it has been since August 2016. The accompanying statement

More information

20 April 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. IMF upgrades forecasts for Australian economic growth

20 April 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. IMF upgrades forecasts for Australian economic growth 20 April 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS This week the RBA reiterated its view that there is no case for a near-term adjustment in the cash rate but that eventually it is likely that the next move

More information

Inflation remains below RBA target band at 1.9% p.a. in Q1 2018

Inflation remains below RBA target band at 1.9% p.a. in Q1 2018 27 April 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Australia s consumer price index (CPI) held steady at 1.9% p.a. in the March quarter (Q1) of 2018, remaining below the RBA target band of 2 to 3% over the

More information

20 July 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

20 July 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 20 July 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS This week the RBA reiterated its view that there is no case for a near-term change in the cash rate. Eventually the next move in the cash rate would more likely

More information

9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 November 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50%. The RBA expects inflation and wages to accelerate gradually from

More information

Inflation reaches the lower end of RBA target band at 2.1% p.a. in Q2 2018

Inflation reaches the lower end of RBA target band at 2.1% p.a. in Q2 2018 27 July 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Australia s consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 2.1% p.a. in the June quarter of 2018 (Q2), reaching the lower end of the RBA s target band of 2 to 3%

More information

28 October 2016 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Inflation remains weak in the Q3 2016

28 October 2016 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Inflation remains weak in the Q3 2016 28 October 2016 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS This week s ABS inflation data (CPI) for the September quarter (Q3) showed headline inflation picking up to 1.3% p.a. (from 1.0% p.a.). Fruit and electricity

More information

Australian Economy April Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group

Australian Economy April Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group Australian Economy April 2018 Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group No recession in 26 years (since 1991) but we re still quite slow and fragile. Real GDP grew by only 2.4% in Q4 of 2017

More information

CPA Australia Management accounting conference Australian economy Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group. aigroup.com.

CPA Australia Management accounting conference Australian economy Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group. aigroup.com. CPA Australia Management accounting conference 2016 Australian economy 2016-17 Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group Events & opportunities for Australian business in 2016-17: Global and

More information

Business priorities for the Federal Budget April 2018

Business priorities for the Federal Budget April 2018 Business priorities for the 2018-19 Federal Budget April 2018 Reducing Australia s high company tax burden is the highest priority for businesses in the 2018-19 Federal Budget, according to Ai Group s

More information

Wages and prices at a glance. Wage Price Index (WPI) September - 0.7% 3.6%

Wages and prices at a glance. Wage Price Index (WPI) September - 0.7% 3.6% Wages Report Issue 1, November 2011 In late 2010 and early this year, employer groups began to claim that Australia was on the verge of an unsustainable wages breakout, with real wages rising faster than

More information

AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY DATA SUMMARY

AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY DATA SUMMARY ECONOMICS & MARKETS RESEARCH Australian industry data summary December 9 / of AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY DATA SUMMARY DECEMBER 9 DATA FOR THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER 9 Australia s economy grew by.% in Q 9 (.% p.a.),

More information

National Accounts - GDP A Game Changer?

National Accounts - GDP A Game Changer? Wednesday, March 1 National Accounts - GDP A Game r? GDP growth was stronger than expected, rising by.% in the December quarter. Moreover, September s quarterly growth was revised upwards from.9% to 1.1%.

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States January 2018 Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends January 2018 Released

More information

NATIONAL CEO SURVEY Business Prospects for 2019 Leadership needed as economy softens

NATIONAL CEO SURVEY Business Prospects for 2019 Leadership needed as economy softens The Australian Industry Group NATIONAL CEO SURVEY Business Prospects for 2019 Leadership needed as economy softens January 2019 Business prospects JANUARY 2019 The Australian Industry Group ABOUT Ai GROUP

More information

Services sector: slow start to 2019 as sales drop

Services sector: slow start to 2019 as sales drop January 2019 Media Contact: Tony Melville, Australian Industry Group. 0419 190 347 Services sector: slow start to 2019 as sales drop The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE GDP Q 1 Another decent outcome NAB Group Economics 5 September 1 Bottom line: GDP recorded another solid outcome in Q (+.9% q/q and +3.% y/y). Growth was again supported by domestic

More information

Victorian Economic Outlook

Victorian Economic Outlook Wednesday, August 1 Victorian Economic Outlook Summary The Victorian economy has performed well over the past couple of years. The combination of low interest rates and a still-low Australian dollar has

More information

Ai GROUP SUBMISSION. Fair Work Commission. Annual Wage Review

Ai GROUP SUBMISSION. Fair Work Commission. Annual Wage Review Ai GROUP SUBMISSION Fair Work Commission Annual Wage Review 2015-2016 30 March 2016 About Australian Industry Group The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) is a peak industry association in Australia

More information

Attachment 7.4 Wage price index (WPI) and Consumer price index (CPI) forecasts Access Arrangement Information

Attachment 7.4 Wage price index (WPI) and Consumer price index (CPI) forecasts Access Arrangement Information Attachment 7.4 Wage price index (WPI) and Consumer price index (CPI) forecasts Access Arrangement Information 2 October 2017 Access Arrangement Information (AAI) for the period 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2022

More information

Employment Outlook for. Administration and Support Services

Employment Outlook for. Administration and Support Services Employment Outlook for Administration and Support Services Contents INTRODUCTION... 3 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH... 4 EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS... 6 VACANCY TRENDS... 9 WORKFORCE AGEING... 11 EMPLOYMENT BY GENDER AND

More information

Victorian Economic Outlook

Victorian Economic Outlook Thursday, November 1 Victorian Economic Outlook Summary The Victorian economy has been through difficult conditions over the past few years. GSP grew by.% in 11-1, easing from growth of.7% in 1-11, and

More information

June Summary. Business investment weighs on growth. 1Q15 GDP Growth. Components of GDP

June Summary. Business investment weighs on growth. 1Q15 GDP Growth. Components of GDP Mar 95 Jul 96 Nov 97 Mar 99 Jul 00 Nov 01 Mar 03 Jul 04 Nov 05 Mar 07 Jul 08 Nov 09 GDP Australian 1Q15: GDP: An Export XXX Story June 2015 June 2015 Summary Business investment weighs on growth GDP grew

More information

Wages and prices at a glance. Wage Price Index (WPI) June - 1.0% 3.7% Full-time average weekly ordinary time earnings (AWOTE) May $1, % 3.

Wages and prices at a glance. Wage Price Index (WPI) June - 1.0% 3.7% Full-time average weekly ordinary time earnings (AWOTE) May $1, % 3. Wages Report Issue 4, September 2012 Public sector budget cuts are making themselves felt in the pay packets of workers across the country, with public sector workers seeing the lowest rate of wages growth

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy March 2018 Released on 22 March 2018 Outlook for Australia 1 Economic Activity

More information

Economic Indicator Movement Status (Favorable/Unfavorable)

Economic Indicator Movement Status (Favorable/Unfavorable) Economic Indicator Movement Status (Favorable/Unfavorable) Monthly Unemployment Rate Weekly Job Advertisements Monthly Online Job Advertisements Monthly Domestic Building Activity Monthly Non-Domestic

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

The Western Australia State 1.7%

The Western Australia State 1.7% Western Australia Economic Profile September 2017 THE ECONOMY Real gross state product (% change) Western Australia s gross state 1 product (GSP) of $239.7 billion in 9.1% 2015-16 was 14.5% of Australia

More information

WA State Economy and State Budget

WA State Economy and State Budget WA State Economy and State Budget 2018-19 Government measures for business and industry The Western Australian State Budget for 2018-19 was handed down by the Treasurer, Ben Wyatt, on 10 th May 2018. The

More information

ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW

ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW 2013-14 28 March 2014 Contents Section 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Title Page Introduction 3 Current Australian economic conditions 4 Australian economic

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States October 2018 Released at 11AM on 25 October 2018 Economic Activity in the

More information

Are Financial Markets Signalling Recession? August 2018

Are Financial Markets Signalling Recession? August 2018 Are Financial Markets Signalling Recession? August 2018 Executive Summary The flattening of the US yield curve has led some to forecast a US recession (with an inverted curve seen as an accurate recession

More information

Business Trends Report

Business Trends Report Business Trends Report June 2014 Introduction The Bankwest Business Trends Report tracks working trends for people that run a business either as an employer or as an own account worker. The report looks

More information

Services activity bounces in November

Services activity bounces in November November 2018 Media Contact: Tony Melville, Australian Industry Group. 0419 190 347 Services activity bounces in November The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian

More information

National Accounts - GDP Beauty is Only Skin Deep

National Accounts - GDP Beauty is Only Skin Deep Wednesday, 3 rd June 215 National Accounts - GDP Beauty is Only Skin Deep GDP expanded by.9% in the March quarter, above consensus expectations. While this outcome appears solid, the detail suggests a

More information

Consensus Forecasts. Real GDP Growth. Growth outlook still solid, says NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Annual average % change

Consensus Forecasts. Real GDP Growth. Growth outlook still solid, says NZIER Consensus Forecasts. Annual average % change NZ Institute of Economic Research (Inc) Media release March Consensus Forecasts Growth outlook still solid, says NZIER Consensus Forecasts The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth forecasts have

More information

Outlook for Bond and Swap Yields. Besa Deda Chief Economist, St.George Banking Group 12 October 2017

Outlook for Bond and Swap Yields. Besa Deda Chief Economist, St.George Banking Group 12 October 2017 1 Outlook for Bond and Swap Yields Besa Deda Chief Economist, St.George Banking Group 12 October 2017 Australian Cash Rate Outlook 2 20 15 10 5 Where Will the Cash Rate Be at the End of Jun 2018? Reuters

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: September 2015 Released: October Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: September 2015 Released: October Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: September 2015 Released: October 2015 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual

More information

The Big Picture. Long-Term Trends in Global Infrastructure Investment and Commodity Prices. Warren Hogan. Chief Economist.

The Big Picture. Long-Term Trends in Global Infrastructure Investment and Commodity Prices. Warren Hogan. Chief Economist. The Big Picture Long-Term Trends in Global Infrastructure Investment and Commodity Prices Warren Hogan Chief Economist May 212 Outline Global Infrastructure Spending Trends Catching up for the industrialised

More information

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JUNE 2018

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JUNE 2018 EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:3AM AEST, 1 JULY 218 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JUNE 218 CONFIDENCE AND CONDITIONS HOLD STEADY NAB Australian Economics There was little change in headline business conditions and

More information

Queensland Economic Update

Queensland Economic Update Queensland Economic Update March 2017 www.cciq.com.au Chamber of Commerce & Industry Queensland Conditions across Queensland appear to be improving despite poor jobs data. State final demand has started

More information

OUTLOOK WESTERN AUSTRALIA S TURNING POINT ABOUT OUTLOOK

OUTLOOK WESTERN AUSTRALIA S TURNING POINT ABOUT OUTLOOK OUTLOOK February 2018 I Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia (Inc) WESTERN AUSTRALIA S TURNING POINT ABOUT OUTLOOK Outlook is CCIWA s biannual analysis of the Western Australian economy.

More information

Investing in Perth. Understanding the drivers of the property market in Western Australia

Investing in Perth. Understanding the drivers of the property market in Western Australia Investing in Perth Understanding the drivers of the property market in Western Australia 01 Investing in Perth Perth shares a business time zone with 60% of the world Investing in Perth Perth s Property

More information

Services sector slows down as year ends

Services sector slows down as year ends December 2018 Media Contact: Tony Melville, Australian Industry Group. 0419 190 347 Services sector slows down as year ends The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian

More information

Victoria University. David Gruen Australian Treasury 23 February Is the resources boom an example of Dutch

Victoria University. David Gruen Australian Treasury 23 February Is the resources boom an example of Dutch The resources boom and structural change in the Australian economy Victoria University David Gruen Australian Treasury February Outline The resources boom Structural change in the Australian traded sector

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast October 6, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

Quarterly Labour Market Report. February 2015

Quarterly Labour Market Report. February 2015 Quarterly Labour Market Report February 2015 MB13090_1228 March 2015 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Hikina Whakatutuki - Lifting to make successful MBIE develops and delivers policy,

More information

Employment Outlook for. Public Administration and Safety

Employment Outlook for. Public Administration and Safety Employment Outlook for Contents INTRODUCTION... 3 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH... 4 EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS... 5 VACANCY TRENDS... 8 WORKFORCE AGEING... 11 EMPLOYMENT BY GENDER AND FULL-TIME/PART-TIME... 13 HOURS WORKED...

More information

WA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Friday, 22 June 2012

WA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Friday, 22 June 2012 WA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Friday, 22 June 12 Summary: Western Australia has been an engine of growth for the Australian economy over the past few years. State final demand grew at an annual pace of 1.% in the

More information

State of the States October 2016 State & territory economic performance report. Executive Summary

State of the States October 2016 State & territory economic performance report. Executive Summary State of the States October 2016 State & territory economic performance report. Executive Summary NSW, VICTORIA AND ACT LEAD How are Australia s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec

More information

VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 QUARTERLY UPDATE 15 JUNE 2017 PREPARED FOR THE MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF VICTORIA STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Senior

More information

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY APRIL 2018 BUSINESS CONDITIONS AT RECORD LEVELS

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY APRIL 2018 BUSINESS CONDITIONS AT RECORD LEVELS EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:3AM AEST, 7 MAY 218 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY APRIL 218 BUSINESS CONDITIONS AT RECORD LEVELS NAB Australian Economics There was a significant improvement in business conditions in

More information

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JANUARY 2018 FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF BUSINESS STRENGTH

NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JANUARY 2018 FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF BUSINESS STRENGTH EMBARGOED UNTIL: :3AM AEDT, 3 FEBRUARY 28 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JANUARY 28 FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF BUSINESS STRENGTH NAB Australian Economics Strong trend business conditions provide further confirmation

More information

VICTORIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

VICTORIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK VICTORIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Wednesday, May 1 Prior to 11, Victoria had been one of the country s strong State performers. A key factor underpinning Victoria s success story has been firm population growth

More information

ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW May Ai Group Post-Budget Submission to the Fair Work Commission

ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW May Ai Group Post-Budget Submission to the Fair Work Commission ANNUAL WAGE REVIEW 2013-14 16 May 2014 Introduction On 28 March 2014, the Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) filed its main submission for the Annual Wage Review 2013-14 and we filed a Reply Submission

More information

The global economy and the Fiji dollar

The global economy and the Fiji dollar The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:

More information

NAB QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY 2018 Q2 FAVOURABLE BUSINESS CONDITIONS PERSIST

NAB QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY 2018 Q2 FAVOURABLE BUSINESS CONDITIONS PERSIST EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:3AM AEST, 19 JULY 218 NAB QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY 218 Q2 FAVOURABLE BUSINESS CONDITIONS PERSIST NAB Australian Economics After strengthening to historically high levels in Q1, business

More information

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2015-16 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 2.8 percent

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Households and Household Saving

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Households and Household Saving MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Households and Household Saving November 2018 Released at 11am on 22 November 2018 Housing and households Consumption

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth

More information

Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook

Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Greg Noonan Head of Business Markets Queensland & Agribusiness 5 June 2015 Australian economy and financial markets continue to be impacted by a large number of

More information

AUGUST 2017 CONTENTS. Key points:

AUGUST 2017 CONTENTS. Key points: EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11.3AM TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 217 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY AUGUST 217 Key points: Table 1: Key monthly business statistics * All data seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. Cost

More information

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:30AM AEDT, 30 JANUARY 2018 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:30AM AEDT, 30 JANUARY 2018 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:3AM AEDT, 3 JANUARY 18 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY THE STATE OF PLAY ACCORDING TO BUSINESS - DECEMBER 17 NAB Australian Economics The NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate a strong business

More information

Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3%

Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% 12 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2018 Industrial Production Index Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% IPI meets market estimates. Malaysia s industrial production expands by 3%yoy

More information

Queensland Economic Update

Queensland Economic Update Queensland Economic Update January 2017 www.cciq.com.au Chamber of Commerce & Industry Queensland A further drop in the official unemployment rate, combined with nation leading retail trade figures and

More information

Quarterly Economic Monitor

Quarterly Economic Monitor Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year

More information

Economic Outlook. Wednesday, 23 August The Australian and Global Economic Outlook:

Economic Outlook. Wednesday, 23 August The Australian and Global Economic Outlook: Economic Outlook Wednesday, 23 August 2017 Wednesday, 23 August 2017 The Australian and Global Economic Outlook: Australia s economy has enjoyed 25 ½ years of economic growth without a recession. It is

More information

Julie Toth. Advanced Manufacturing: Beyond the production line. Chief Economist Australian Industry Group. Connect with

Julie Toth. Advanced Manufacturing: Beyond the production line. Chief Economist Australian Industry Group. Connect with Connect with us: @ceda_news Advanced Manufacturing: Beyond the production line Follow the conversation: #Manufacturing P R E S E N T A T I O N B Y Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group S

More information

WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY

WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY July 31, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

More information

UK Economic Outlook July 2018

UK Economic Outlook July 2018 www.pwc.co.uk/economics UK Economic Outlook July 2018 Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic prospects UK housing market outlook Impact of AI and related technologies on jobs in the UK UK Economic

More information

The Australian Economy and Financial Markets. Chart Pack February 2017

The Australian Economy and Financial Markets. Chart Pack February 2017 The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack February 7 The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Contents Graphs World Economy Australian GDP Growth and Inflation Household Sector Business

More information

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD February 19, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Last week, Global stock markets witnessed one of their best weeks in almost six years after two consecutive weeks in the red. The last week rally was mainly

More information

GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted

GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted NZ Economy - Overview 1 GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted Leading indicators suggest a near-term annual GDP growth rate around a robust 3.-3.% YoY level Current supportive

More information

PPI Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture

PPI Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture 30 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW February 2018 Producer Price Index Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture Producer prices continued to fall for two consecutive months.

More information

> Macro Investment Outlook

> Macro Investment Outlook > Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

Federal Budget : This Time It s Personal. May 2018

Federal Budget : This Time It s Personal. May 2018 Federal Budget 2018-19: This Time It s Personal May 2018 Executive Summary The Federal Government and the nation s fiscal position have become the beneficiaries of an unexpected windfall primarily in the

More information

The Outlook for the Australian Residential Sector Presentation to Buildex

The Outlook for the Australian Residential Sector Presentation to Buildex The Outlook for the Australian Residential Sector Presentation to Buildex Andrew Harvey HIA Senior Economist October 2010 Presentation Outline The economic backdrop global economy domestic economic outlook

More information

Economic Update. 15 Oct 2015

Economic Update. 15 Oct 2015 Economic Update 15 Oct 2015 Welcome: Our Presenters Warren Hogan, Chief Economist, Ai Group Julie Toth, Chief Economist, Ai Group Tony Melville, Head of Communications, Ai Group Housekeeping Questions

More information

SA Economic Outlook. Tuesday, 23 December State Report SA

SA Economic Outlook. Tuesday, 23 December State Report SA Tuesday, 2 December 2014 SA Economic Outlook Summary The South Australian economy has been through challenging times in recent years. Unfortunately, good news has remained scarce and economic growth has

More information

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research

More information

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE Business and government led growth NAB Group Economics December 17 Bottom line: Moderate growth momentum in Q3, mainly led by business and government investment. Households are

More information

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY August 06, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in almost a decade. Raising the interest rate is suggesting that inflation continues

More information

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by

More information

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting

More information

JUNE 2017 QUARTERLY MARKET COMMENTARY

JUNE 2017 QUARTERLY MARKET COMMENTARY JUNE 2017 QUARTERLY MARKET COMMENTARY Market Commentary Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in the June quarter The Australian seasonally adjusted unemployment

More information

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted June 11, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted central bank to act accordingly. The Central Bank of Turky and The Reserve Bank of

More information

NATIONAL CEO SURVEY JANUARY Business prospects in 2018 Can 2018 be a stellar year? The Australian Industry Group

NATIONAL CEO SURVEY JANUARY Business prospects in 2018 Can 2018 be a stellar year? The Australian Industry Group NATIONAL CEO SURVEY Business prospects in 2018 Can 2018 be a stellar year? JANUARY 2018 The Australian Industry Group 1 ABOUT AiGROUP The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) is a peak employer association

More information

Consumer Price Index Inflation Still Soft

Consumer Price Index Inflation Still Soft Wednesday, 25 January 2017 Consumer Price Index Inflation Still Soft Inflation remained weak in the December quarter. Headline inflation rose by 0.5% in the December quarter, which was in line with our

More information

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y

More information

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2014-15 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong slowed to 1.8 percent

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: July 2016 Released: August Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: July 2016 Released: August Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: July 2016 Released: August 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w

More information

March June Summary. A sharp improvement in nominal growth. Components of GDP. 4Q16 GDP Growth

March June Summary. A sharp improvement in nominal growth. Components of GDP. 4Q16 GDP Growth GDP Australian 4Q16: GDP: A return XXX to growth June 2015 March 2017 Summary The economy returned decisively to growth in the final quarter of 2016, recording 1.1% growth q-q. This was boosted by household

More information

HKU announces 2014 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2014 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release October 8, 2014 HKU announces 2014 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong Economic Outlook The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the

More information