RP Data HY09 Results Presentation

Transcription

1 RP Data HY09 Results Presentation

2 HY09 Highlights Strong Revenue Growth Strong Subscriber and ARPU Growth Further Expansion of Valuation Services Other Highlights HY revenue up 14% to $24.8m Growth in transaction and subscription services Avg. monthly subscribers up 0.4% to 8,740 Avg. monthly spend up 2% to $332 VRS revenue up 123% to $3.3m Established Risk solutions group Resilience to major downturn 5 Major product enhancements and new Revenue ($m) Avg. Subs / ARPU VRS Revenue ($m) Repackage solutions for new segments , , Operating cost reductions HY08 HY09 FY08 Avg Subs HY09 ARPU HY08 HY09 2

3 Financial Performance Revenue Growth from Information Services and Valuation and Risk Solutions EBITDA margin negatively impacted by Increased payments to valuers Overheads ahead of revenue Technology migration $m FY07 FY08 HY08 HY09 Revenue Growth % 19% 46% 49% (14%) EBITDA Growth % 30% 25% 30% (8%) NPAT impacted by increased Interest and Depreciation and Amortisation expenses due to acquisition funding and technology investments EBITDA margin is expected to recover during the second half EBIT Growth % 35% 23% -% (27%) NPAT Growth % 125% 83% (33%) EBITDA margin % 52% 44% 44% 36% EBIT margin % 39% 33% 33% 21% 1. Post one off expense of $0.6m and write back of $1.3m Source: RP Data 3

4 Segment Overview Property Information Services Business Services Valuation Services Subscription Services Property Data, Cityscope On The Market Real estate software Property Indices Portfolio valuations Transaction-Based Services Consumer Reports Information brokerage Software training CPD training AVMs Desktop Valuations (EVRs) Custom Data solutions HY09 Revenue ($m) $20.0m up 6.4% $1.4m down 4.0% $3.3m up 122.8% HY09 Revenue by Model HY09 Revenue by Geography HY09 Revenue by Product Type Transaction 26% New Zealand 8% Valuation Services 12% Business Services 15% Property Information Services 73% Subscription 74% Australia 92% Revenue model split in line with FY08 New Zealand UP from 6% in FY08 Valuation Services UP from 10% FY08 4

5 Subscribers / ARPU Continued growth in average subscribers and ARPU Subscriber growth (excl. Commercial) of 0.4% from FY08 ARPU growth of 2% from FY08 12, , Subscribers 10,000 9,000 8, ,718 8,705 9, ARPU ($) 7,000 8, ,000 FY07 FY08 HY Avg. Subs (residential) Avg. Subs (commercial) Avg. ARPU 5

6 Relative Performance RP Data has displayed resilience, achieving subscriber, ARPU and revenue growth despite the challenging property market conditions The deterioration of Australia s property market over CY08 has seen the closure of a number of agents and mortgage brokers Key RP Data KPIs ARPU Average Subscribers Listings/sales ratio Applications/loans Subscribers (000s) FY08 Avg. Subs (resid.) Avg. ARPU 11.9 RP Data KPIs HY09 Avg. Subs (com.) Real Estate Agents 12.0 (5%) FY FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 HY09 Note: *FY09 estimate based on franchise sample Source: IBISWorld Report ARPU ($) (9%) (3%) (3%) Brisbane (3%) National Adelaide Melbourne Canberra Sydney Perth (1%) (1%) 3% (10%) (5%) -% 5% Source: RP Data, Rismark Hedonics Property Transactions (000s) National Dwelling Values Property Transactions (monthly) Source: ABS, RP Data (30%) pcp 6

7 Opportunities Subscription Services RP Data s core property information service is still under penetrated across subscriber categories 12,000 10,000 Property Information Subscribers 8,000 6,000 4,000 70% Addressable Market Subs RP Data Subs 2,000 - Real Estate Agents 16% Other Related Property Segments * Other category includes developers, valuers, mortgage finance brokers, institutions, and government Source: IBISWorld, Sensis, RP Data estimates 7

8 Opportunities Valuation Services RP Data currently generates 60,000 valuation reports for mortgage finance market p.a. equating to only c. 7% of the addressable market Major banks have an estimated market share of 90% of the mortgage market, up from c.65% previously Despite the decline in mortgage approvals, significant opportunity still exists as market is nascent Cross - selling opportunities exist for lenders using RP Data s valuation services (e.g. risk mitigation tools) Annual Mortgage Approvals Valuations Market Share RP Data Valuations 7% Mortgage's (m) FY07 FY08 FY09e Note: Includes mortgage originations and refinancing Addressable Market 93% 8

9 Organisation Restructure Clear go to market divisions focused on customer engagement Integrated Product Management team Integrated Data acquisition teams Pooled Technology teams Benefits Deeper focussed customer engagement Divisions have core focus and Increased accountability Increased capability and expandability of existing team Scalable model for growth 9

10 Go to Market Model Data Technology Product Sales & Marketing Customers Research Consumers Data Acquisition and Quality Product IT Platform and Infrastructure Product Development Valuation & Risk Solutions Information Services Myrpdata.com Professionals Corporate Government IT Systems, Support & Maintenance Finance & Admin Corporate 10

11 Summary Core focus remains the same Maintain market share in core real estate segment and grow related segments Strategically grow with major banking customers Introduction of new packages and products to meet market demand Leverage structure and reorganisation to keep costs low and return EBITDA margin Technology migration continues for another 12 months Margin improvement to be driven by lower cost base, focus on profitable segments, relevant product development 11

12 Appendix

13 US Housing Values Values down 20% and volumes down 60% Unemployment approaching 8% Falling rates but very tight finance restrictions Paired sales volumes 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volumes Case Schiller House Price Index Case Schiller House Price Index Nov-87 Nov-88 Nov-89 Nov-90 Nov-91 Source: RP Data, Case Shiller Home Price Indices Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Month Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 13

14 National Dwelling Prices (quarterly) Dwelling values appear to be stabilizing at the macro level. 1.1% fall in dwelling values over December quarter. Values are 2.6% lower than same period last year 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Rolling quarterly change Source: RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index 14

15 Change in Dwelling Values (annual) Australian mainland capitals (CY08) A relatively soft landing for most capitals Perth remains only capital to experience a material decline in property values Darwin and Adelaide stand out as top performers -2.6% National Darwin 10.7% Adelaide 2.8% Melbourne Canberra -1.2% -1.3% -2.8% -2.9% Brisbane Sydney -8.8% Perth -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Source: RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index 15

16 Change in Dwelling Values (annual) Top end feeling the pain Melbourne example Melbourne s top decile has a median price of $917,000 15% lower than same period last year At the other end of the spectrum, houses priced under $300k have seen a small amount of price gain. Annual change in stratified median - Melbourne % 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% 20-30% 10-20% 0-10% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index 16

17 Volume of sales Combined capital cities excl. Hobart (houses & units) 39.8% decline on volumes compared to same period last year Volumes 36.7% below the 10 year average 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Ten year average Monthly sales volume 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Monthly sales volume) Source: RP Data Dec-98 Apr-99 Aug-99 Dec-99 Apr-00 Aug-00 Dec-00 Apr-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Period Dwelling sale volumes Dec quarter -08 variance 3 months ending December ,847 3 months ending December , % 10 year average 78, % 17

18 National rents and yields Rents up by 12% OR $40/week nationally over last year Average gross rental yield now averaging 4.7% across houses and units (compared to 4.2% same time last year) Average rental rate - dwellings $420 $400 $380 $360 $340 $320 $300 $280 $260 Avg rental rate - all dwellings Avg gross yield - Houses Avg gross yield - Units 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Avg gross rental yield Source: RP Data, RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index

19 Residential Listings New listings to the market have been controlled Total stock on market is higher than last year Number of listings 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Number of new listings - rolling monthly average New advertised listings 15 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 07 Number of listings 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Number of listings - rolling monthly average Week Total advertised listings 15 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 07 Source: RP Data, ABS Week

20 First home buyers return to the market First home buyers in Australia now account for just over 25% of all owner occupier finance commitments A vast improvement from 2 years ago when FHB s accounted for around 17% First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier finance commitments 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Dec-1998 Apr-1999 Aug-1999 Dec-1999 Apr-2000 Aug-2000 Dec-2000 Apr-2001 Aug-2001 Dec-2001 Apr-2002 Aug-2002 Dec-2002 Apr-2003 Aug-2003 Dec-2003 Apr-2004 Aug-2004 Dec-2004 Apr-2005 Aug-2005 Dec-2005 Apr-2006 Aug-2006 Dec-2006 Apr-2007 Aug-2007 Dec-2007 Apr-2008 Aug-2008 Dec-2008 Source: RP Data, ABS

21 First home buyers return to the market The percentage of first home buyers is up across all states and territories FHB s are most active in NT, NSW and WA FHB s are least active in ACT % of first home buyers (as a proportion of all owner occupier finance commitments) Australian Capital Territory 16.7% 24.1% Northern Territory 16.8% 27.4% Tasmania 14.9% 23.4% Western Australia 17.6% 26.7% South Australia 13.6% 22.4% Queensland 18.5% 24.4% Victoria 20.9% 25.2% New South Wales 18.7% 26.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: RP Data, ABS

22 Consumer confidence Confidence remains well below 100 points suggesting that pessimists well and truly outweigh optimists A boost in buyers unlikely until we see a considerable lift in consumer sentiment Australian Consumer Sentiment Index Six month moving average Dec-74 Dec-75 Dec-76 Dec-77 Dec-78 Dec-79 Dec-80 Dec-81 Dec-82 Dec-83 Dec-84 Dec-85 Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec Consumer Sentiment Index. Source: RP Data, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Month 22

23 Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Index Volume of sales Consumer Sentiment Oct-1991 Apr-1992 Oct-1992 Apr-1993 Oct-1993 Apr-1994 Oct-1994 Apr-1995 Oct-1995 Apr-1996 Oct-1996 Apr-1997 Oct-1997 Apr-1998 Oct-1998 Apr-1999 Oct-1999 Apr-2000 Oct-2000 Apr-2001 Oct-2001 Apr-2002 Oct-2002 Apr-2003 Oct-2003 Apr-2004 Oct-2004 Apr-2005 Oct-2005 Apr-2006 Oct-2006 Apr-2007 Oct-2007 Apr-2008 Oct-2008 Australian Consumer Sentiment Index Six month moving average Dec-74 Dec-75 Dec-76 Dec-77 Dec-78 Dec-79 Dec-80 Dec-81 Dec-82 Dec-83 Dec-84 Dec-85 Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume of sales Consumer Sentiment Index. Source: RP Data, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Month 23

24 Property Market Outlook Likely to be further price minor falls during first half of 2009 mostly due to ongoing declines in higher priced properties. The build up of stock on the market will slowly by absorbed as vendors are now more realistic and buyers are becoming more active. A return to price growth will not become evident until market activity improves substantially, which in turn is dependent on a substantial boost in consumer confidence. A recovery in the lower priced segments of the market is already underway and first home buyers are gathering momentum. Investors have remained mostly inactive, however yields are improving and more houses are approaching a cash flow positive scenario. We are likely to see investment pick up during 2009, with many investors targeting the same stock as first home buyers. Still a buyers market: plenty of opportunities 24