Australian Business Expectations Survey

Transcription

1 Australian Business Expectations Survey Dun & Bradstreet Q FINAL RESULTS RELEASED 4 APRIL 2017

2 Index SECTORS HEDGE THEIR BETS DESPITE POSITIVE OUTLOOK Expectations for Profits continue to rise, hitting a two-year high for Q Dun & Bradstreet s March Business Expectations Survey shows Actual results for Sales and Capital Investment are also trending higher. An additional question regarding the company tax rate drew mixed results across sectors and locations. According to Dun & Bradstreet Economic Adviser Stephen Koukoulas, The Business Expectations Index held at a solid level, with a broadly optimistic take on the economy. The business sector is indicating that expectations for the June quarter remain buoyant, although some soft spots remain in the overall positive outlook. Dun & Bradstreet s Business Expectations Index, the average of the survey s measures of sales, profits, employment and capital investment expectations, rose to 20.3 points for the June quarter of 2017, up 7.6 percent from 18.9 points from the March quarter 2017 and up 60.2 percent from 12.7 points in the previous corresponding period. The final Q result is 11.2 points above the 10-year average of 9.1 points. The index is currently at its highest point since the December quarter of 2015, when it reached 21.8 points Business Expectations Index 20.3 pts pts Business Expectations Index Business Actuals Index The Business Expectations Index is an aggregate of the survey s measures of sales, profits employment and investment expectations. The Business Actuals Index also ticked upward for the December quarter 2016, with businesses reporting increased sales, employment numbers, selling prices and profits in Q compared to Q The actual performance of the economy continues to edge higher, which indicates that the economy has maintained reasonable momentum in the first half of 2017, Mr Koukoulas noted. The Sales Expectations Index climbed to 33.8 points: 43.9 percent of companies expect to increase sales in Q compared to Q2 2016, while 10.1 percent expect lower sales. Meanwhile, the Sales Actuals Index rose from 12.8 points in Q to 19.7 points in Q4. Some 38.1 percent of companies reported increased sales in the December quarter 2016, with 18.3 percent reporting lower sales Both expected and actual sales are rising, which bodes well for activity in the economy, even though the actual performance of the economy continues to lag otherwise optimistic expectations. The results fit the strong December quarter GDP result, Mr Koukoulas said. 1

3 Profits are also reflecting the positive sales outlook: profits expectations continue to move higher with low interest costs and weak wages growth lowering business costs, with growth in sales feeding revenue, he added. Profit expectations 37.2 % 22.6 pts 14.6% Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Expecting an increase Expecting a decrease Profits Expectations Index The Profits Expectations Index climbed to 22.6 points for the June quarter, up from 21.0 points in the March quarter and 10.2 points a year ago. The Profits Actuals Index for the December quarter was at a two-year high of 11.2 points, up from 8.3 points in the September quarter and 8.0 points in the prior corresponding quarter. Despite the optimistic outlook and results for sales and profits, the Employment Expectations Index has edged lower for Q2 2017, dropping from 14.6 points to 11.6 points. Some 20.7 percent of businesses expect to increase employee numbers in the June quarter, while 9.1 percent plan to decrease employee numbers. However, the index is 40 percent higher than the 8.3 points recorded at the same time last year. The decline in the Employment Expectations Index is consistent with the recent trends in the official labour force data which has seen weakness in jobs growth and a slight upturn in the unemployment rate, Mr Koukoulas said. Offsetting the disappointing news on employment is a further upturn in expected capital expenditure. This measure has been recovering since the middle of 2016 and it was interesting to note that one of the surprising components in the recent official GDP data was a rise, albeit moderate, in business investment. The Business Expectations Survey anticipated this over a quarter ago, Mr Koukoulas said. The Capital Investment Expectations Index is at a two-year high of 13.3 points, up from 11.8 points in Q1 and 8.7 points in the previous corresponding quarter. However, actual capital investment activity fell slightly in the December quarter, with the index slipping to 8.6 points, down from 9.1 points in the September quarter and 11.9 points in the December quarter Four of the seven industries surveyed saw an increase in business expectations; the exceptions were Manufacturing, Retail and Transportation, Communications & Utilities. The Manufacturing sector suffered a particularly sharp decline, with its Business Expectations Index falling between quarters from 24.2 points to 18.4 points. All four components of the index (sales, employment, profits and capital investment) edged lower for the June quarter, while expectations for selling prices increased marginally. Nonetheless, the Q result is substantially higher than the 13.2 points recorded at the same time last year. By comparison, the Construction sector showed a dramatic increase in expectations for the June quarter: its Business Expectations Index leaped from 5.9 points in the March quarter to 16.0 points for the June quarter. The result was driven by sharp increases in all four components of the index. In particular, the Construction industry s Profit Expectations Index was up from 3.6 points in Q1 to 16.8 points in Q2. 2

4 Index Manufacturing sector optimism wanes in Q Sales Employees Selling Prices Profits Capital Investment Business Expectations Index Some 30.6 percent of business said the current company tax rate presents no impediment to business plans. Another 30.6 percent are only slightly impeded by the tax rate, and 30.6 percent are severely impeded. The Services sector is the least troubled by the tax rate, with 50.0 percent saying they are not impeded at all, 34.0 percent impeded a little and just 16.0 percent are impeded a lot. Meanwhile, 48.0 percent of manufacturers said the current company tax rate impedes their business a lot. A significant proportion of the business sector considers the current company tax rate an impediment to their business plans, therefore the cut proposed by the government would be a welcome move, Mr Koukoulas observed. To what extent is the current 30% company tax rate an impediment to your business plans? Manufacturing Transportation, Communications, Utilities Retail Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Construction Wholesale Services All firms % 33.3 A lot A little Not at all Contacts: Bryony Duncan-Smith DuncanSmithB@dnb.com.au === 3

5 The latest D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey shows: Expectations index for the June quarter 2017: The Employment Expectations Index has dropped to 11.6 points, down from 14.6 points in the March quarter but up from 8.3 points a year ago. The Sales Expectations Index rose to 33.8 points, up from 28.1 points in the previous quarter and 23.6 points at the same time last year. The Profit Expectations Index rose 22.6 points, up from 21.0 points in the March quarter and 10.2 points a year ago. The Capital Investment Expectations Index increased to 13.3 points, up from 11.8 points in the March quarter and 8.7 points in the June quarter The Selling Prices Expectations Index climbed to 15.4 points, up from 14.6 points in the March quarter but up from 13.7 points at the same time last year. Issues expected to influence operations in the June quarter 2017: 56.2 percent of businesses are more optimistic about growth in 2017 compared to 2016, while 26.6 percent are less optimistic and 17.2 percent are undecided. Consumer confidence (40.3 percent) is identified as the issue most likely to influence business operations in the next quarter, followed by cash flow (13.3 percent) and interest rates (8.4 percent). Weak demand for their products was identified as the biggest barriers to growth in the year ahead at 16.5 percent, followed by utilities and operational costs (16.0 percent) and access to or a shortage of skilled labour (14.0 percent) percent of businesses reported having a customer or supplier that became insolvent, or was otherwise unable to pay them in the past year percent of businesses would choose to miss payments to suppliers if unable to pay all their bills on time, followed by payments on a business loan or overdraft (22.8 percent) percent of businesses would prefer a higher Australian dollar and 13.3 percent a lower dollar, while 63.6 percent think that it doesn t matter. 4.9 percent are unsure percent of businesses intend to seek finance or new credit in the quarter ahead to help their business grow, while 77.4 percent will not, and 5.7 percent are undecided percent of businesses say the current 30 percent corporate tax rate does not impede business plans at all percent say the tax rate impedes their plans a little, and 30.6 percent say the tax rate impedes business plans a lot. Actual results reported for the December quarter 2016: The Actual Employment Index for the December quarter rose to 8.4 points, up from 4.8 points in the September quarter but down marginally from 8.5 points in December The Actual Sales Index jumped from 12.8 points in the September quarter to 19.7 points in the December quarter. However, the current figure is down from 22.4 points a year earlier. Actual profits were up: the index climbed from 8.3 points in the September quarter to 11.2 points in the December quarter. The current figure is up from the 8.0 points recorded a year ago. Capital investment activity was down, with the index falling to 8.6 points in the December quarter, down from 9.1 points in the September quarter and 11.9 points in the prior corresponding period. The Actual Selling Prices Index rose to 11.9 points, up from 10.3 points in the previous quarter and 11.2 points in the December quarter of About Dun & Bradstreet Established in 1887, Dun & Bradstreet is Australia and New Zealand's longest established credit information bureau. Backed by its extensive financial database, D&B helps businesses to make informed credit decisions, and consumers to access personal credit information. D&B works across the entire credit lifecycle to deliver data-driven solutions in sales and marketing, credit reporting and debt management. Through analysis of financial and behavioural information, D&B also provides current and predictive assessments of the economy, business conditions and credit activity. 4

6 Methodology Each month D&B asks a sample of executives if they expect an increase, decrease or no change in their quarterahead sales, profits, employees, capital investment and selling prices compared with the same quarter a year ago. The executives are also asked for actual changes over the twelve months to the latest completed quarter. In this issue, the interim indexes for the latest quarters are based on approximately 1200 responses obtained during January, February and March Charts and tables It is common practice to present the results of business expectations surveys as indexes showing the net balance of the positive and negative responses. However, this method of aggregating responses loses relevant information about the relative proportions and rates of change of the two (positive and negative) groups. Accordingly, the detailed charts at the top of pages six to 10 in the D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey show separately the positive and negative components of each of the various indexes. These charts help provide a better insight into the expectations and performance of Australian business than that shown by movements in the simple aggregation of the positive and negative responses. The aggregate net balance indexes are shown in the charts at the bottom of pages six to 10. About Dun & Bradstreet Established in 1887, Dun & Bradstreet is Australia and New Zealand's oldest credit information bureau. Backed by its extensive financial database, D&B helps businesses to make informed credit decisions, and consumers to access personal credit information. D&B works across the entire credit lifecycle to deliver data-driven solutions in sales and marketing, credit reporting and debt management. Through analysis of financial and behavioural information, D&B also provides current and predictive assessments of the economy, business conditions and credit activity.

7 Sales outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (33.8 points, up from 28.1 points) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The June quarter 2017 Sales Expectations Index is 33.8 points, up from 28.1 points in the previous quarter and 23.6 points in the year-earlier period. The index is now 16.6 points above its 10-year average of 17.2 points percent of businesses expect an increase in their sales for the June quarter of 2017, while 10.1 percent forecast a decrease, compared to the same time in Actual performance The Actual Sales Index for the final quarter of 2016 is 19.7 points, up from 12.8 points in the September quarter but down from 22.4 points a year earlier percent of firms reported increased sales in the December quarter and 18.3 percent had decreased sales compared to the previous corresponding quarter. D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey conducted March 2017

8 Profits outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (22.6 points, up from 21.0 points) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The outlook for profits in the June 2017 quarter is an index of 22.6 points, up from 21.0 points in the previous quarter and 10.2 points last year. The outlook for profits is 14.2 points above the 10-year average index of 8.4 points percent of businesses expect an increase in their profits during the June quarter, while 14.6 percent forecast a decrease, compared to the same period last year. Actual performance The Actual Profits Index for the December 2016 quarter is 11.2 points, up from 8.3 points in the previous quarter 8.0 points in the previous corresponding quarter. During the December quarter, 30.4 percent of businesses increased their profits, while 19.3 percent experienced a decrease compared to the December quarter of D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey conducted March 2017

9 Employment outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (11.6 points, down from 14.6 points) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The employment outlook for the June quarter 2017 is 11.6 points, down from 14.6 points in the previous quarter but up from 8.3 points a year earlier. The outlook for employment is 8.0 points above the 10- year average index of 3.6 points. Some 20.7 percent of executives expect to employ more staff in the June quarter 2017 compared to the June quarter 2016, while 9.1 percent expect to decrease their staff numbers. Actual performance The Actual Employment Index for the December 2016 quarter is 8.4 points, up from 4.8 points in the previous quarter but down marginally from 8.5 points a year earlier. In the December quarter 2016, 21.0 percent of businesses employed more staff than a year earlier, compared to the 12.6 percent that reduced their employment levels. D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey conducted March 2017

10 Capital Investment outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (13.3 points, up from 11.8 points) The positive and negative components of the D&B indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The capital investment outlook for the June quarter 2017 is 13.3 points, up from 11.8 in the previous quarter and 8.7 points a year earlier. The Capital Investment Expectations Index is 6.2 points above the 10-year average index of 7.1 points percent of businesses expect an increase in their investment level, while 7.3 percent plan to decrease investment levels in Q compared with a year earlier. Actual performance For the December quarter 2016, the actual index for investment is 8.6 points, down from 9.1 points in the previous quarter and 11.9 points a year ago. Some 17.6 percent of firms increased their capital investment in Q compared to Q4 2015, while 9.0 percent decreased capital spending. D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey conducted March 2017

11 Selling Prices outlook (Quarterly Net Index) (15.4 points, up from 14.6 points) The positive and negative components of the D&B net indexes are shown in the adjacent chart. Expectations The Selling Prices Expectations Index for the June quarter 2017 is 15.4 points, up from 14.6 points in the previous quarter and 13.7 points a year earlier. The outlook for selling prices is 9.4 points lower than the 10-year average of 24.8 points. Some 23.8 percent of firms expect to have higher selling prices in the June quarter 2017 compared to a year earlier, while 8.4 percent expect lower prices. Actual performance At 11.9 points, the Actual Selling Prices Index for the December 2016 quarter is up from 10.3 points in the previous quarter and 11.2 points a year ago. While 21.3 percent of businesses increased their selling prices compared to the same time a year earlier, 9.4 percent had decreased selling prices. D&B Australian Business Expectations Survey conducted February 2017

12 D&B Survey Quarterly Indexes Expected Quarter Ahead: Net per cent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 June 2017 Sales Profits Employees Capital Investment Selling Prices Actual Quarter Behind: Net per cent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Mar 2015 June 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2017 Sales Profits Employees Capital Investment Selling Prices Survey Months Jul Sep 2015 Oct Dec 2015 Jan Mar 2016 Apr Jun 2016 Jul Sep 2016 Oct - Dec 2016 Jan - Mar 2017 Number of Responses Quarterly Indexes: Each batch of monthly responses is given an equal weight in the calculation of the new quarterly indexes. Final indexes: Q (Expected) and Q (Actual) findings are based on the 1225 responses obtained during January, February and March 2017.

13 Expected Quarter Ahead: Net per cent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sales Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication,Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries Profits Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication,Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries Employees Expectations Manufacturers: Wholesalers: Retailers: Construction: Transport, Communication, Utilities: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: Services: All Industries

14 Expected Quarter Ahead: Net per cent of businesses expecting increases minus decreases QUARTER Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Capital Investment Expectations Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Selling Prices Expectations Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

15 Actual Quarter Behind: Net per cent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Sales Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Profits Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Employees Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

16 Actual Quarter Behind: Net per cent of businesses reporting increases minus decreases QUARTER Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Capital Investment Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries Selling Prices Actual Manufacturers Wholesalers Retailers Construction Transport, Communication, Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services All Industries

17 D&B Supplementary Questions Thinking about the quarter ahead, which issue do you think will influence the operations of your business the most? (March 2017) Wages & salary growth Level of Australian dollar Access to credit Interest Fuel Cash Consumer rates prices flow confidence All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % Don t (February Wages & Level of Access Don t 2017) Interest Fuel Cash Consumer salary Australian to credit rates prices flow confidence growth dollar All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January Wages & Level of Access Don t 2017) Interest Fuel Cash Consumer salary Australian to credit rates prices flow confidence growth dollar All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

18 Thinking about your business for the quarter ahead, are you likely to seek finance or credit to help your business grow? (March 2017) Not Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) Not Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) Not Yes No sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

19 What do you see as the biggest barrier to growing your business in the year ahead? (March 2017) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) Access/ shortage of skilled labour Access/ shortage of funding Weak demand for products Cash flow Online selling by competi tors Utilities and operating costs Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

20 Would your business benefit if the Australian dollar was higher or lower than its current level? (March 2017) Higher Lower Doesn t matter Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) Higher Lower Doesn t matter Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) Higher Lower Doesn t matter Not sure/ don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

21 In the past 12 months, have any of your customers or suppliers become insolvent or otherwise unable to pay you? (March 2017) I don t Yes No /I d rather not say All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) I don t Yes No /I d rather not say All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) I don t Yes No /I d rather not say All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

22 Are you generally more optimistic, or less optimistic, about growing your business in 2017 compared to last year? (March 2017) More optimistic Less optimistic Not sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) More optimistic Less optimistic Not sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) More optimistic Less optimistic Not sure/don t All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

23 If you find yourself unable to pay all of your bills, which of the following would you choose to pay late/miss? (March 2017) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (February 2017) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services % (January 2017) Phone Internet Utilities Suppliers Rent/m ortgage Business loan/ overdraft Business credit card All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %

24 To what extent is the current 30% company tax rate an impediment to your business plans? (March 2017) A lot A little Not at all All Firms % Manufacturers % Wholesale % Retail % Construction % Transport etc % Finance etc % Services %