Markit Global Business Outlook

Transcription

1 News Release Markit Global Business Outlook EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01, 16 March 2015 Global business confidence and hiring intentions slip to post-crisis low Expectations regarding activity and employment hit new survey lows in February Softer US and UK outlooks contrast with better sentiment in Eurozone, Japan and China Outlook remains weak in Russia Global price pressures pick up from October s low, but deflation risk rises in China Data collected February 2015 Global business activity future expectations The Markit Global Business Outlook Survey, which looks at expectations for the year ahead across 6,100 companies, found optimism to have fallen to a postfinancial crisis low in February. The waning largely reflected a fading of sentiment from last year s peaks in the US and UK, and masks a welcome upturn in sentiment in the Eurozone, China and Japan. The number of companies globally that expect activity to be higher in a year s time exceeded those expecting a decline by some +27%, but this net balance is down from 28% last October and 40% a year ago. Optimism in the service sector fell to its lowest since the survey was first conducted in 2009, while manufacturing optimism remained well below par. Global hiring intentions also fell to a new survey low, and investment intentions only picked up modestly from October s trough. Price expectations edged up from the lows witnessed at the end of last year, as expectations about input cost inflation also lifted from October s survey-low. Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, says: Companies are the least optimistic about the global outlook than at any time since 2009, led down by a waning of optimism in the US. But the survey at least points to a more equal distribution of global growth. While expectations about business activity fell in the fast-growing US and UK economies, prospects have improved in the Eurozone, Japan and China. US and UK optimism wanes The main source of weakness was the US, where optimism hit a new survey low in both manufacturing and the service sector. US hiring intentions likewise fell to a new post-recession low, and capex intentions remained close to October s low. Sentiment among UK firms about both future business activity and hiring also waned, dropping further from the survey highs seen this time last year to the lowest since mid-2013, but remained elevated and the highest of all major economies 1. UK service sector confidence fell to the lowest since mid-2013 while manufacturing optimism held at October s recent low. Williamson continued: The danger is that if the US slows too sharply then the global economy loses its main growth engine. Optimism and hiring intentions among US firms hit the 1 Excludes Eurozone national results, which showed Ireland and Spain recording the strongest degrees of optimism.

2 lowest since the survey began in 2009, linked to worries about the strong dollar and rising interest rates. Companies are also signalling a slowdown in the UK economy this year. However, with the exception of Spain and Ireland, the UK looks set to be the fastest growing economy in The UK s remarkable run of strong growth therefore looks set to continue, with firms largely brushing aside worries about the euro crisis, Russia, the possibility of higher interest rates and uncertainty due to the upcoming general election. Brighter Eurozone outlook Optimism about future business activity picked up in the Eurozone, rising to one-year peaks in services and manufacturing, and pushing hiring intentions to the highest for eight and four years respectively. Within the Eurozone, Irish and Spanish companies were the most upbeat, with optimism in the latter hitting a post crisis peak. Improved confidence was also recorded in France, Italy and Germany, with the latter seeing an especially marked upturn. Post-global recession peaks in hiring intentions were seen in Ireland, Spain, Germany and Italy, but remained disappointingly weak in France. Williamson added: The outlook for the euro area is meanwhile significantly brighter, boosted by the impact of ECB stimulus and the competitive advantage arising from the euro s depreciation. Companies have lifted their hiring and investment intentions and are more positive about their business prospects. Spain and Ireland look set to continue to be the star performers, but improved optimism in Germany, France and Italy bodes well for the region s recovery to gain momentum and become more sustainable. Japan and emerging markets drag Business optimism lifted higher in Japan, but was still the lowest of all countries surveyed. Confidence was particularly weak in the service sector. Capex and hiring intentions remained largely unchanged compared to late last year. Williamson commented: The survey is signalling no swift turnaround for the Japanese economy in A slight improvement in optimism failed to prevent Japan once again seeing the weakest prospects of all countries monitored. Sentiment among exporters has been buoyed by the weaker yen, but firms remain concerned about the lack of demand in the home market. However, hiring and wage growth measures remained elevated by recent historical standards, adding hope that Abenomics is feeding through to rising core inflationary pressures. Business expectations across the main emerging markets edged up only slightly from the survey low seen late last year. Investment intentions hit a new low and hiring intentions remained close to October s low. However, there were mixed pictures among the BRICs. Optimism was the strongest in China, where expectations about business activity were the most buoyant for a year. Confidence meanwhile sank to a new survey low in Brazil and a near-record low in India. However, the darkest outlook was seen in Russia, where expectations revived from October s survey low but remained weaker than at any time seen prior to last summer, with sentiment especially weak in the service sector. Williamson said: The emerging markets also look set to continue to act as a drag on global economic growth in 2015, with business optimism across the main BRIC countries barely improved on the survey low seen late last year. Especially dark pictures are painted for Russia and Brazil, where recessions look inevitable in Even in China, where optimism rose to a one-year high, there is a growing threat of deflation, with companies expecting prices to fall for the first time in the survey s history. Price and staff cost expectations Companies expectations of their average selling prices in the year ahead moved up from October s near survey-low, but remained weak for both goods and services by historical standards of the survey. Expectations of average input costs in the year ahead also ticked higher from October s low, rising to the highest since this time last year. Expectations of raw material prices in the manufacturing sector were unchanged on late last year, but expectations of both staff costs and non-staff cost in the service sector rose slightly compared with October. The weakest price trend was seen in China, where selling price expectations went negative for the first time in the survey s history, contrasting markedly with a record peak in Brazil. Selling price expectations and expected staff costs moved higher in the US, though remained very modest. 2

3 More elevated readings for staff costs were seen in the UK and Eurozone. In Japan, where rising wage growth is widely seen as crucial to the country s hopes of beating deflation, the index of expected staff costs in the year ahead dipped only marginally from the elevated levels seen last year. However, overall selling price expectations slipped compared to the October survey. Business optimism in February How business activity expectations have changed since October 3

4 Long-term trends in expected future business activity levels in key economies Key developed economies Key emerging markets -Ends- Full data available on request from Contact Information: Chief Economist Corporate Communications Chris Williamson Joanna Vickers Telephone Telephone Notes to Editors: The Global Business Outlook Survey for worldwide manufacturing and services is produced by Markit Economics and is based on a survey of around 11,000 manufacturers and service providers that are asked to give their thoughts on future business conditions. The reports are produced on a tri-annual basis, with data collected in February, June and October. The latest survey was conducted between February 12 and 27. The countries covered by the survey are the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Austria*, the Netherlands*, Greece*, the Czech Republic*, Poland*, Brazil, Russia, India and China. (*Manufacturing only) Interest in the use of economic surveys for predicting turning points in economic cycles is ever increasing and the Business Outlook survey uses an identical methodology across all nations covered. It gives a unique perspective on future business conditions from Global manufacturers and service providers. The methodology of the Business Outlook survey is identical in all countries that Markit Economics operates. This methodology seeks to ensure harmonization of data, and is designed to allow direct comparisons of business expectations across different countries. This provides a significant advantage for economic surveillance around the globe and for monitoring the evolution of the manufacturing and services economies by governments and the wider business community. Data collection is undertaken via the completion of questionnaires three times a year at four-month intervals. A combination of phone, fax, website and are used, with respondents allowed to select which mechanism they prefer to use. The Business Outlook survey uses net balances to indicate the degree of future optimism or pessimism for each of the survey variables. These net balances vary between -100 and 100, with a value of 0.0 signalling a neutral outlook for the coming twelve months. Values above 0.0 indicate optimism amongst companies regarding the outlook for the coming twelve months while values below 0.0 indicate pessimism. The net balance figure is calculated by deducting the percentage number of survey respondents expecting a deterioration/decrease in a variable over the next twelve months from the percentage number of survey respondents expecting an improvement/increase. Questionnaires are sent to a representative panel of around 11,000 manufacturing and services companies spread across the global economy in the countries mentioned above. Companies are carefully selected to ensure that the survey panel accurately reflects the true structure of each economy in terms of sectoral contribution to GDP, regional distribution and company size. This panel forms the basis for the survey. The current report is based on responses from around 6,500 firms. 4

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