Election 2016: Making Sense of Propositions

Transcription

1 Election 2016: Making Sense of Propositions Dr. Renée Van Vechten Dept. of Political Science University of Redlands

2 Direct Democracy Adopted by CA Progressives in 1911 Initiative, Referendum, Recall CA s Hybrid Political System: representative + direct democracy

3 Direct Democracy Recently defended in Supreme Ct. Case Arizona State Legislature v. AZ Independent Redistricting Commission A legislature = The power that makes laws. The people as voters are a legislature; this is consistent with the fundamental premise that all power flows from the people.

4 Initiative Process Why so long this year? Since 2011, initiatives only appear on general election ballots Lower signature requirements Based on turnout for gubernatorial elections In 2014, decreased by ~140,000 for statutes and and ~222,000 for constitutional amendments 365,880 for statutes 585,407 for amendments

5 Initiative Process: It could be worse! San Francisco: 39 ballot measures total! Not an historical record for CA

6 CA Ballot Measures (all), Primaries + General elections

7 Quirks of the Initiative Process Private citizens write them; can include provisions to protect themselves Prop 61: Author s firm is exempted from drug pricing; Prop 60, author will defend in court Titles Matter English Only or English Proficiency? (Prop 58) Dueling measures If both pass, the one with more votes wins Props 62 vs. 66 and 65 vs. 67

8 Quirks of the Initiative Process Most initiatives fail 72% didn t qualify 34% approved by voters Changes can t be addressed in law unless stipulated in the proposition; another ballot measure must fix flaws NOTE: bonds will cost about double their face value to pay off But over 30 yrs, about $1.30 per $1 adj. for inflation

9 Quirks of the Initiative Process You re not crazy this IS the most expensive bunch of ballot campaigns in CA history! (Source: AP) By mid-october:, including: - $40 million for signature-gathering - $200 million for consulting - $115 million regular TV ads

10 Proposition 51: School Construction Bond NINE BILLION DOLLARS OF BOND FUNDS FOR SCHOOL BUILDINGS TERM: 35 YEARS - DAMIAN CARROLL

11 What good are bonds? Bonds enable government to borrow money for costly infrastructure projects Like buying a house & paying off a large mortgage State borrows from investors by selling bonds Repays with interest, usually 30 yrs (this one=35) State makes annual payments The public enjoys benefits of projects: schools, roads, parks, prisons, flood control, etc. Businesses also depend on infrastructure

12 2 Types of bonds GENERAL OBLIGATION Paid through the General Fund, the state s main operating account GF = Income & sales taxes Bonds must be approved by voters REVENUE Bonds cover projects that generate revenue through fees (or tolls, etc.) Don t require voter approval unless Prop 53 passes

13 Current: $2.7billion/yr +$500m/yr. payments $31b authorized $85 billion sold Source: LAO, 7/16

14 Where would Prop 51 dollars go? $7 billion for K-12 $3 billion to build new schools $3 billion to modernize existing schools $500 million for charter schools $500 million for technical education facilities $2b Comm. College $2 billion to buy, build, and improve community colleges

15 Why is $$ needed? State coffers empty; individ. school districts must fund expensive projects Inequities exacerbated by inability of poorer districts to find funding Most money requires 50/50 split: local K-12 districts pay 50%, raised through local bonds 2014: 113 local bond measures of $11.6 billion for school construction Nov. 2016: 180 local bond measures of $24 billion more *LAT; Vincent & Jain, Going it Alone, UCB Policy Research Working Paper, Nov. 2015, Jain_2015_Going_it_Alone_final.pdf

16 Why is $$ needed? Most school districts underspend on facilities* 80% of 6.2 million students attend districts failing to meet minimum benchmarks for facilities maintenance & operations spending; drastic needs Deferred maintenance = more costly in long run Ongoing requirements statewide = $18 billion annually LA Unified: reports $40 billion to address backlog, 10x current amount Wealthy districts spend more on facilities; helps their property values; can afford grant-writers who secure $$ on first-come, first-served basis Districts serving low income students spend from operating budgets to fix facilities, leaving less for other needs *Vincent & Jain, Going it Alone, UCB Policy Research Working Paper, Nov. 2015, Jain_2015_Going_it_Alone_final.pdf

17 Pros & Cons of Prop 51 PROS *School infrastructure is badly underfunded *Low-income students experience disparities disproportionately (kids in lowest quintile outspent 3x than kids in top quintile) Asthma, absenteeism, lower academic performance, negative teacher attitudes/retention, lower home prices CONS Boon to construction industry (bankrolled/placed on ballot): big developers are required to pay fees (up to 100%) if no state $$ available Pay 50% of costs otherwise Will contribute to sprawl * Not the most adequate, equitable, or cost-effective option available *Jeffrey Vincent & Liz Jain, UC Berkeley s Institute of Urban & Regional Development

18 Prop 51 would continue current system LAO on current school construction funding program: Doesn t treat facility costs as an ongoing expense Doesn t fund according to greatest need Administratively complex & accountability is lacking

19 How to fix system? Suggestions Re-establish competitive state grants for construction with Prop 51 funds State approves some amount ($3b?) to target high-need districts Set up equity-focused state grant formula with adjustments for relative wealth of districts

20 Proposition 52: Medi-Cal Hospital Fee Program A HOSPITAL FEE MATCHED WITH FEDERAL DOLLARS FUNDS MEDI-CAL BOOST - DAMIAN CARROLL

21 Key points of Prop 52 To receive federal Medicaid funding (matching funds), since 2009 CA has imposed a fee on hospitals; generates $4.6 billion Money goes towards Medi-Cal reimbursements, covering 13 million residents Hospitals receive net benefit

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23 Key points of Prop 52 Why on ballot? Set to expire in 2018 has been extended 4 times already Community hospitals fear the legislature will continue to raid funds Coalition of hospitals put onto ballot Opponents say reimbursements can be used for any purpose

24 Key questions, Prop Should the fee become permanent? * Set to expire 1/18 2. Should voters be in control of the hospital fee? * 2/3 of legislature could make changes * Voters could change at ballot box * Prevents them from using excess funds

25 Proposition 53: New rules for revenue bonds BONDS FOR BIG PROJECTS (LIKE HIGH-SPEED RAIL & DELTA) WOULD NEED PEOPLE S VOTE - DAMIAN CARROLL

26 2 Types of bonds GENERAL OBLIGATION Paid through the General Fund Bonds must be approved by voters REVENUE Bonds cover projects that generate revenue Don t require voter approval (legislature/governor approve)

27 /5ea10e8f be8-86a eff/

28 Origins of Prop 53 Pet project of Agribusinessman, Dino Cortopassi, who has spent $4.5m to qualify & promote it

29 Prop 53 Touchpoints Requires voters to approve revenue bonds over $2 billion Simple majority approval Should apply to state projects costing over $2 billion Can t split up projects into parts Unknown how projects will be interpreted by courts Could involve local projects Places roadblocks before huge infrastructure projects: High-speed rail and Brown s proposed Delta Twin Tunnels project; potentially prisons

30 PROS More power in voters hands Voters would probably limit state spending (and therefore debt) CONS Voters don t pay back revenue bonds w/taxes Are voters inclined to support big projects if they don t use them? Potential loss of local control More ballot measures! PROP 53

31 Proposition 54: Reform of legislative proceedings BILLS MUST BE POSTED ON THE WEB, FOR 3 DAYS STRAIGHT BEFORE THEY ARE PASSED - DAMIAN CARROLL

32 Reforming legislative procedures Bills must be posted 72 hours before passage Emergency measures excepted All public meetings to be recorded All videos to be made available to public for 20 years Post within 24 hours $1 million ongoing expenses/absorbed by budget

33 Pros & Cons, Prop 54 PROS Last-minute changes can allow mischief Typically no public comment enabled Give less time to special interests to prevail CONS Meddles with internal processes of legislature Give more time to special interests to counterattack and defeat bills? More ammo for campaign ads

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35 Proposition 55: Extends taxes about to expire FOR HIGH-EARNING FOLKS AN INCOME TAX THAT FUNDS SCHOOLS WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE - DAMIAN CARROLL

36 Key Points of Prop 55 Prop 30 (2012): raised marginal personal tax income rates on highest income individuals & couples (earning over $263,000/yr) Example: Extra 1% on $300k pays $370 more. 1.5% of Californians who pay more than half of the state s PIT (personal income tax) Would extend income tax rates for 12 years

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38 Key points, Prop 55: the money About $6 billion raised so far Est.: $4 to $9 billion more ( 2030; amount depends on economy) About half supports schools: 89% to K-12 schools 11% to community colleges Rest goes to health care for low-income people Supported by Democratic Party, Opposed by Republican Party

39 Bottom Line, Prop 55: Do you think high-income earners should be taxed more or not? How do you define fair share? PROS not onerous CA lags in per-pupil spending CONS unnecessary at this time (no fiscal cliff) We rely too much on high-income individuals to balance the budget; need comprehensive reform

40 Over the last 40 years, incomes of top 1% of earners in CA doubled (inflation-adjusted), whereas incomes declined for bottom 80% of households. (- CA Budget & Policy Center)

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42 THE CIGARETTE TAX WOULD GO UP, TWO BUCKS A PACK E-CIGARETTES, TOO - Damian Carroll

43 Prop 56: Cigarette Tax Raises tax from among lowest to among the highest (currently 19 th at $.87 vs. $.60 lowest) Sources: Tax Foundation 2016; Wikipedia

44 Prop 56 Applies to e-cigarettes, cigars too Revenue goes into special fund to be used by agency overseeing MediCal Can t be used for other purposes ( locked ) Not included in General Fund 4.5 million new MediCal patients since % to offset smoking-related illnesses/target youth; rest to offset MediCal costs

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46 Proposition 57: Criminal Justice System Reform EARLIER PAROLE OF PRISONERS SERVING TIME FOR NON-VIOLENT CRIMES - DAMIAN CARROLL

47 Prop 57: Key Points Hm it s complicated. CA s prison medical care still under federal receivership for chronic underfunding & related issues; addresses prison overcrowding Gov. Brown s ballot measure committee supports Increases chances non-violent felons be paroled About 120,000 total in prison 8,000 immediately eligible? Have served primary sentences in full 25,000 30,000 total possible eligible

48 Prop 57: Key Points Inmates get credit for good behavior and rehab, education More evidence-based rehab for kids & adult Shifts more responsibility to counties for parolees and juveniles Judges would decide whether to try to juveniles under age 14, not prosecutors (addresses Prop 21) Opponents say some criminals are violent, even if they were committed by kids aged Could result in higher crimes if not rehabbed

49 Proposition 58: English Proficiency KIDS LEARNING ENGLISH WON T NEED A WAIVER TO TAKE BILINGUAL CLASSES - DAMIAN CARROLL

50 Prop 58: Considerations Addresses Prop 227; a question of success 1 of 5 students is an English Language Learner Works for good portion, but The achievement gap has grown Long-term, 1.5 grade level difference by 8 th grade, in high school between ELL s and native English speakers Stanford Study (2014): better to learn one language first, then another 2006 study: 40% of students weren t fluent after 10 yrs. in school

51 Prop 58: Considerations Local control back to schools/parents? Parents can request specific instruction such as English only (20+ or 30+) Emphasis on multi-lingual options, as well as bilingual option (+ dual immersion programs) Makes bilingual programs easier to implement

52 Proposition 59: Advisory measure regarding Citizens United ASKS TO OVERTURN CITIZEN S UNITED, BUT SHUCKS, IT S NON-BINDING - DAMIAN CARROLL

53 Citizen United v. FEC FEC sued Citizens United over Hillary: The Movie BCRA prevented corporations & labor unions from electioneering communications or advocacy FEC considered the movie to be form of advocacy US Supreme Court ruled this advocacy was free speech or political speech Overturned this BCRA provision as unconstitutional Led to rise of SuperPACs, independent spending committees

54 Independent Spending in Federal Elections, (excludes parties) Source: Center for Responsive Politics (Opensecrets.org)

55 Prop 59: Key Points Advisory measure asking Congress to pursue an amendment Measure is non-binding Could help boost interest/increase momentum nationwide for getting a US Constitutional Amendment to address Citizens United

56 Election 2016: Sought-After Political Gains & Inspired Losses Dr. Renée Van Vechten Dept. of Political Science, U of Redlands

57 Direct Democracy Recently defended in Supreme Ct. Case Arizona State Legislature v. AZ Independent Redistricting Commission A legislature: The power that makes laws. The people as voters are a legislature; this is consistent with the fundamental premise that all power flows from the people.

58 Initiative Process Why so long this year? Since 2011, initiatives only appear on general election ballots Lower signature requirements Based on turnout for gubernatorial elections In 2014, decreased by ~140,000 for statutes and and ~222,000 for constitutional amendments 365,880 for statutes 585,407 for amendments

59 Initiative Process: It could be worse! 789 bills went to Gov. Brown at end of August; as of last Thursday, had 151 to deal with San Francisco: 39 ballot measures total! Not a record for CA

60 CA Ballot Measures (all), Primaries + General elections

61 Quirks of the Initiative Process Private citizens write them; can include provisions to protect themselves Prop 61: Author s firm is exempted from drug pricing; Prop 60, author will defend in court Titles Matter English Only or English Proficiency? (Prop 58) Dueling measures If both pass, the one with more votes wins Props 62 vs. 66 and 65 vs. 67

62 Quirks of the Initiative Process Most initiatives fail 72% didn t qualify 34% approved by voters Changes can t be addressed in law unless stipulated in the proposition; another ballot measure must fix flaws NOTE: bonds will cost about double their face value to pay off

63 Death and taxes! It s in there! - Props 55, 56, 62, 66 SEX and DRUGS and GUN CONTROL! Prop 60 (condoms for adult film actors) Prop 61, 64 (prescriptions, marijuana) Prop 63 (ammo control)

64 Propositions 62 and 66: Death 62 VOTE FOR THIS ONE IF YOU WANT TO ELIMINATE THE DEATH PENALTY - DAMIAN CARROLL Penalty in CA 66 IF YOU WANT THE STATE TO EXECUTE MORE PEOPLE THIS ONE IS FOR YOU

65 CA: one of 30 states with death penalty In CA: 13 people executed vs. 875 convictions Los Angeles County hands down the most (267) 728 people on death row now 2013: Courts prevent CDCR from executing inmates via lethal injection; orders new regulations Violation of 8 th Amendment s cruel & unusual punishment clause

66 TEXAS: 518 Oklahoma: 112 Virginia: 110 California: 13 Source: Pricenomics & Death Penalty Information Center (Accessed 10/3/16)

67 Prop 62 vs 66 PROP 62 REPEALS Death Penalty REPLACES convictions with LIFE WITHOUT PAROLE; all new cases too Inmates work; up to 60% of earnings for restitution PROP 66 RETAINS death penalty LIMITS court time, 5 years Changes appeals process: TRIALS courts first Requires attorneys to take cases Inmate transfers okay Inmates work; up to 70% of earnings for restitution Source: Ballotpedia, CA Proposition 62, Ballotpedia.org, Accessed 10/4/16.

68 Basic Arguments PROP 62 Less expensive; big savings annually Doesn t deter crime Doesn t provide relief to families PROP 66 Justice is served Heinous criminals finally get punished Families get relief Possibly less costly; possible wash Source: Ballotpedia, CA Proposition 62, Ballotpedia.org, Accessed 10/4/16.

69 A few arguments against Prop Does nothing to reduce current backlog Population contains inmates with mental illness, etc. LONG DELAYS, expensive to address; more appeals To eliminate we would have to execute a person every day for the next two years+ 2. Shifts authority to appoint attorneys away from independent authority (HCRC) to Courts 3. Sets arbitrary filing periods & adjudication timetables Cooper, Stephen Proposition 66 Is Fool s Gold for Californians. Jurist, July 4, Accessed 10/4/16,

70 Who s executed? Racial disparities in system CA leads nation in exonerations 120 from ; +half were for murder DNA evidence (fewer than 6%) Official Misconduct by Police or Prosecutors (39%) Findings of innocence: Perjury/false accusation (42%) Ineffective defense (19%) Legal Error NOTE: excludes 53 Rampart convictions. Source: Slibert & Holloway. (2012). Berkeley Law s Warren Institute, Accessed 10/3/16.

71 Systemic Racial Disparities Q: Who has discretion over charges? A: District Attorneys About 50% of victims are White; but 80% of capital cases involve white victim Higher capital conviction rates for Blacks confirmed by numerous statistically controlled studies Source: Pokorak, J Probing the Capital Prosecutor s Perspective. Cornell Law Review 83:

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73 Prop 56: Cigarette Tax Raises tax from among lowest to among the highest (currently 19 th at $.87 vs. $.60 lowest) Sources: Tax Foundation 2016; Wikipedia

74 Prop 56 Applies to e-cigarettes, cigars too Revenue goes into special fund to be used by agency overseeing MediCal Can t be used for other purposes ( locked ) Not included in General Fund 4.5 million new MediCal patients since % to offset smoking-related illnesses/target youth; rest to offset MediCal costs

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76 Propositions 65 and 67: Plastic 65 PLASTIC BAG MAKERS PUT THIS ONE ON THE BALLOT TO PUNISH GROCERS - DAMIAN CARROLL Bag Ban 67 TO BAN PLASTIC BAGS VOTE YES ON 67 NO ON 65

77 Plastic Bags: Prop 65 A few stats Every Californian uses about 400 bags per year Equals about 15 BILLION bags 5% are recycled Break down; microplastics pollute Jam recycling machinery Est. $400m spent to clean up bags from beaches, waterways 150 cities/counties have passed local bans

78 Prop 65 vs 67 PROP 65 Contains clause possibly invalidating the Bag Ban Redirects fees from carryout bags Money into a special fund, administered by Wildlife Conservation Bd PROP 67 YES vote retains the ban passed into law Stores charge $.10 per bag; keep money they collect Could be addressed by law New standards for material content & durability of carryout bags Source: Ballotpedia, CA Proposition 62, Ballotpedia.org, Accessed 10/4/16.

79 Proposition 61: State prescription drug purchases IN THEORY, LOWERS THE COST OF SOME STATE-BOUGHT DRUGS (BUT IT COULD BACKFIRE) - DAMIAN CARROLL

80 Prop 61: Drug Pricing Drug costs are negotiated by all different agencies different costs Prop 61 Instructs state to pay no more than the V.A. pays for prescription drugs MediCal excepted (75% of enrollees) Dept. of Health Care Services to verify prices, drug by drug

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82 Prop 61: Drug Pricing UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES: V.A. negotiated prices isn t public knowledge V.A. not required to share information Probably a violation of interstate Commerce Clause Drug manufacturers could respond by raising rates for V.A. (and all) Might lead to decrease in drug prices or not

83 Proposition 58: English Proficiency KIDS LEARNING ENGLISH WON T NEED A WAIVER TO TAKE BILINGUAL CLASSES - DAMIAN CARROLL

84 Prop 58: English Proficiency Addresses Prop 227; question of success 1 of 5 students is an English Language Learner Achievement gap has grown: long-term, 1.5 grade level difference by 8 th grade, in high school between ELL s and native English speakers Local control back to schools/parents? Emphasis on multi-lingual options, as well as bilingual option (+ dual immersion programs) Bilingual programs can t be implemented unilaterally