Poll: Sacramento Residents Uncertain about Schwarzenegger s Political Reforms, but More Positive of the Governor than Other Californians

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1 Poll: Sacramento Residents Uncertain about Schwarzenegger s Political Reforms, but More Positive of the Governor than Other Californians Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph. D. Joseph Sheley, Ph. D. California State University, Sacramento In January 2005, Governor Schwarzenegger proposed four political reforms for California: legislative redistricting, state spending control, merit pay for public school teachers, and pension reform for public employees. Since there is not enough support from the state Legislature, Governor Schwarzenegger plans to put three of them in a special election so voters can make the decision for themselves. However, with the exception of the merit pay initiative (63% favor), the public in the Sacramento region doesn t seem to have strong support for the political reforms the governor has been advocating: 23 percent favor the legislative redistricting plan; 38 percent support the pension reform; 48 percent endorse the state spending proposal. The majority of the public in the Sacramento region (56%) approve of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as the governor, and those who support his reforms are much more positive about his job performance, with 73 percent to 66 percent approval. The governor remains more popular in the Sacramento region than in California (40%, Baldassare April 2005), even though his approval rating is 9 percent lower than a year ago (56% in 2005 vs. 65% in 2004, Liu and Meyer 2004). This is consistent with the pattern we observed in 2004 when 65 percent of the public in the Sacramento region were positive about his overall job performance whereas only 55 percent of Californians share this optimistic view (Baldassare February 2004; Liu and Meyer 2004). These are some of the findings of The 2005 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region, conducted from February 15 to March 16, 2005 by the Institute for Social Research (ISR), California State University, Sacramento. Divided on the Governor s Four Political Reforms Support for Governor Schwarzenegger s four political reforms in the Sacramento region is quite uncertain. If an election were held on the days when we asked these questions, only the merit pay initiative would pass (63% favor). The other three plans would fail, because only 48 percent favor the state spending, 38 percent endorse the pension plan, and 23 percent support the legislative redistricting. This may be because a large percentage of the public don t quite understand or have formed an opinion yet on these proposals: 52 percent for the legislative redistricting, 32 percent for the pension plan, 27 percent for the state spending, and 11 percent for the merit pay. Page 1 of 12

2 Several proposals have been made to reform California. We are interested in your opinion and you can indicate whether you don't know or have no opinion. Reform Proposals Favor Oppose Don t Know Merit pay State spending Pension Legislative redistricting Strong Support for the Merit Pay About two-thirds of the public (63%) in the Sacramento region believe that we should pay public teachers based on performance instead of years of services. An overwhelming majority of Republican voters (77%), Bush supporters (75%), and Arnold allies (75%) support this reform, while endorsement from Democrats (50%), Bush opponents (49%), and Arnold rivals (43%) is less strong. White residents (65%) are much more likely to vote yes for this reform than residents from other racial groups (56%). Income, gender and county of residence show no significant impact on the attitude toward merit pay initiative. Pay public teachers based on performance instead of years of service. Do you favor, oppose, or don't know? Comparison among Registered Voters Sacramento Region Republicans Democrats Other Voters Favor 63% 77% 50% 58% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Bush Supporters and Bush Opponents Bush Supporters 1 Bush Opponents Don t Know Favor 75% 49% 69% Oppose Don t know Bush supporters here refer to those who approve of the way that Bush is handling his job as the president of the United States, and Bush opponents represent those who disapprove of the way that Bush is handling his job as the president of the United States. Page 2 of 12

3 Comparison between Arnold Supporters and Arnold Opponents Arnold Supporters 1 Arnold Opponents Don t Know Favor 75% 43% 63% Oppose Don t know Arnold supporters here refer to those who approve of the way that Arnold is handling his job as the governor of California, and Arnold s opponents represent those who disapprove of the way that Arnold is handling his job as the governor of California. Comparison between Whites and Other Racial Groups Whites Other Racial Groups Favor 65% 56% Oppose Don t know Split over the State Spending Proposal Less than half of the public (48%) in the Sacramento region think that we should impose automatic cuts on state spending that exceeds revenues. However, opinions on this issue vary dramatically between Democrats and Republicans. An overwhelming majority of Republican voters (65%), Bush allies (60%), and Arnold supporters (60%) endorse the state spending control. In contrast, only 38 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Bush rivals, and 32 percent of Arnold opponents favor this proposal. Those whose households make $30,000 and $99,999 a year (50%) or earn $100,000 or more (58%), white residents (51%), and men (52%) are much more likely to vote yes on this initiative than residents with household income less than $30,000 (34%), people from other racial groups (41%), and women (46%). About one third of lower income people (35%), people from other racial groups (31%), and women (30%) don t know this reform proposal or haven t formed their opinions on this issue yet. Impose automatic cuts on state spending that exceeds revenues. Do you favor, oppose, or don't know? Comparison among Registered Voters Sacramento Region Republicans Democrats Other Voters Favor 48% 65% 38% 48% Oppose Don t know Page 3 of 12

4 Comparison between Bush Supporters and Bush Opponents Bush Supporters Bush Opponents Don t Know Favor 60% 37% 33% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Arnold Supporters and Arnold Opponents Arnold Supporters Arnold Opponents Don t Know Favor 60% 32% 41% Oppose Don t know Comparison among People with Different Household Income Less than $30,000 $30,000-99,999 $100,000 Or More Favor 34% 50% 58% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Whites and Other Racial Groups Whites Other Racial Groups Favor 51% 41% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Men and Women Men Women Favor 52% 46% Oppose Don t know Page 4 of 12

5 Tepid Support for Pension Reform Support for pension reform is not strong in the Sacramento region, with only 38 percent of the public endorsing replacing state pension programs with a 401k-like system for new employees. About one-third (30%) oppose it, and another one-third (32%) don t understand or have no opinion on this reform. Republican voters (49%), Bush supporters (51%), Arnold supporters (50%), those whose households make $30,000 to $99,999 a year (40%) or earn $100,000 or more (43%) endorse the pension reform more than Democrats (31%), Bush opponents (26%), Arnold opponents (22%), and people with household incomes less than $30,000 a year (30%). Unfortunately, 45 percent of residents from the lower income households don t understand or have no opinion about this political reform. Replace state pension programs with a 401K-like system for new employees. Do you favor, oppose, or don't know? Comparison among Registered Voters Sacramento Region Republicans Democrats Other Voters Favor 38% 49% 31% 35% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Bush Supporters and Bush Opponents Bush Supporters Bush Opponents Don t Know Favor 51% 26% 23% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Arnold Supporters and Arnold Opponents Arnold Supporters Arnold Opponents Don t Know Favor 50% 22% 29% Oppose Don t know Comparison among People with Different Household Income Less than $30,000 $30,000-99,999 $100,000 Or More Favor 30% 40% 43% Oppose Don t know Page 5 of 12

6 Uncertain about the Legislative Redistricting Proposal More than half of the public (52%) in the Sacramento region don t know too much about the political redistricting plan. This is especially the case for those whose households make less than $30,000 a year (63%), women (60%), and people from other racial groups (60%). Twenty-five percent of the public oppose this reform, and 23 percent support it. Republican voters (31%), Bush supporters (28%), Arnold allies (29%), those whose households make $100,000 or more (31%), men (35%), and white residents (26%) are much more likely to favor this reform than other groups. Shift the drawing of political districts from the Legislature to a panel of judges. Do you favor, oppose, or don't know? Comparison among People with Different Household Income Sacramento Region Less than $30,000 $30,000-99,999 $100,000 Or More Favor 23% 18% 23% 31% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Men and Women Men Women Favor 35% 15% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Whites and Other Racial Groups Whites Other Racial Groups Favor 26% 16% Oppose Don t know Comparison among Registered Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters Favor 31% 21% 22% Oppose Don t know Page 6 of 12

7 Comparison between Bush Supporters and Bush Opponents Bush Supporters Bush Opponents Don t Know Favor 28% 18% 14% Oppose Don t know Comparison between Arnold Supporters and Arnold Opponents Arnold Supporters Arnold Opponents Don t Know Favor 29% 16% 15% Oppose Don t know Strong Connection between Support for the Reforms and Approval of the Governor People s attitude toward Governor Schwarzenegger s four reforms is related to their perception of Arnold as Governor of California. An overwhelming majority of those who support the pension reform (73%), the political redistricting (70%), the state spending (69%), and the merit pay (66%) approve of his job performance as the governor. On the contrary, the majority of those who oppose the merit pay (61%), the pension reform (57%), and the state spending control (54%) disapprove of his job performance. Those who oppose his redistricting reform are also more likely to disapprove his job performance (46%) than to approve of him (43%). Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as the governor of California Comparison between Those Who Support the Pension Reform and Others Governor s job performance Favor Pension Oppose Pension Don t Know Approve 73% 33% 55% Disapprove Don t know Comparison between Those Who Support the Redistricting and Others Governor s job performance Favor Redistricting Oppose Redistricting Don t Know Approve 70% 43% 55% Disapprove Don t know Page 7 of 12

8 Comparison between Those Who Support the Spending Control and Others Governor s job performance Favor Spending Oppose Spending Don t Know Approve 69% 36% 49% Disapprove Don t know Comparison between Those Who Support the Merit Pay and Others Governor s job performance Favor Merit Pay Oppose Merit Pay Don t Know Approve 66% 31% 51% Disapprove Don t know Support for Governor Schwarzenegger in the Sacramento Region Decreased but Still Strong Fifty-six percent of the public in the Sacramento region approve of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job, 34 percent disapprove, and 10 percent haven t formed their opinion yet. Although the approval rating is 9% lower than a year ago (56% in 2005 vs. 65% in 2004, Liu and Meyer 2004), he is still more popular in the Sacramento region than he is in California (40%, Baldassare April 2005), with a 16 percent gap in approval of Governor Schwarzenegger s performance between Sacramento area residents and other Californians (56% in the Sacramento region vs. 40% in California). This is consistent with the pattern we observed in 2004 (65% in the Sacramento region vs. 55% in California). His approval rating, however, varies significantly along party lines and among registered voters in the Sacramento region. The governor is more popular among Bush supporters (77%) than among Bush opponents (34%). Republicans (85%) are much more likely to regard his job performance favorably than Democrats (36%) and other voters (56%). Compared to a year ago, he maintains his popularity among Republicans (85% in 2005 and 88% in 2004) and other voters (56% in 2005 vs. 59% in 2004), but his approval rating among Democrats has eroded 12 percent to 36 percent in 2005 from 48 percent in Race, income, gender and county of residence also affect how the public in the Sacramento region view the governor s overall job performance. White residents (61%) and those whose households make $100,000 or more (62%) or make $30,000 to $99,999 a year (57%) are much more likely to consider his job performance positively than residents from other racial groups (41%) and those with household income less than $30,000 (42%). Men (61%) and people from El Dorado (60%) and Placer (65%) counties are more likely than women (52%) and the public from Sacramento (53%) and Yolo (56%) counties to find the governor s leadership exemplary. Page 8 of 12

9 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as Governor of California Comparison between California and the Sacramento Region in 2004 and 2005 Sacramento (2005) California 1 (April 2005) California 2 (Jan. 2005) Sacramento 3 (2004) California 4 (2004) Approve 56% 40% 60% 65% 55% Disapprove Don t know Baldassare, Mark. April Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Education. San Francisco, CA. 2 Baldassare, Mark. January Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Special Survey on the California State Budget in collaboration with the James Irvine Foundation. San Francisco, CA. 3 Liu, Amy Qiaoming and Jim Meyer. March One Year Later: Sacramento Residents More Optimistic about the Governor and the Economy than Other Californians. California State University, Sacramento. Sacramento, CA. 4 Baldassare, Mark. February Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government. San Francisco, CA. Comparison between Bush Supporters and Bush Opponents Bush Supporters Bush Opponents Don t Know Approve Arnold 77% 34% 40% Disapprove Arnold Don t know Comparison among Registered Voters in 2004 and 2005 Republicans Democrats Other Voters 2005 Approve 85% 36% 56% Disapprove Don t know Approve 88% 48% 59% Disapprove Don t know Comparison between Whites and Other Racial Groups Whites Other Racial Groups Approve 61% 41% Disapprove Don t know 9 12 Page 9 of 12

10 Comparison among People with Different Household Income Less than $30,000 $30,000-99,999 $100,000 Or More Approve 42% 57% 62% Disapprove Don t know Comparison between Men and Women Men Women Approve 61% 52% Disapprove Don t know 9 11 Comparison between Sacramento Region Counties El Dorado Placer Sacramento Yolo Approve 60% 65% 53% 56% Disapprove Don t know Survey Methods The above results are based on our fourth annual survey, The 2005 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. This study is a computerassisted telephone interview of 1002 randomly selected adult residents age 18 or over in the Sacramento region, which includes Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, and El Dorado counties. The objective of this project is to assess quality of life and public opinion regarding a wide range of important local and national issues in the Sacramento region. More than 20 students conducted phone interviews in English and Spanish from February 15 to March 16, 2005, at the Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento. The sample is representative of the four counties in the Sacramento region and comparable to the 2000 U.S. Census (68% residents in the Census vs. 66% in the sample in Sacramento County, 14% in the Census vs.15% in the sample in Placer County, 9% in the Census vs. 9% in the sample in Yolo County; and 9% in the Census vs. 10% in the sample in El Dorado County). The margin of error for the survey is approximately ± 3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The error for group comparisons in the Sacramento region would be higher than ± 3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This survey has compared the Sacramento region findings with those from other California regions, the state, and the nation. Data cited regarding the state and other California regions often comes from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Surveys. Nationwide data often comes from Gallup polls. Page 10 of 12

11 The College of Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Studies (SSIS), Department of Sociology, the Office of Public Affairs, the Office of Community Collaboration at the university have sponsored this project. Dr. Joseph Sheley, Interim Executive Vice President, California State University, Sacramento, is actively involved in this project and has made great contributions. This research is directed by Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph.D., Department of Sociology and Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento. Dr. Liu is an expert in public opinion polls, and has conducted over 20 surveys in the past nine years, including: 2004, 2003, and 2002 Annual Surveys of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region Survey of Iowa Business about Eldercare and Eldercare Needs Story County Conservation Board Survey Grundy County Youth Needs Assessment Marshalltown United Way Survey Direct all correspondence to Dr. Amy Q. Liu, Department of Sociology, California State University, Sacramento, 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA ; (phone); (fax); amyliuus@yahoo.com. Please visit our web site ( for the executive summaries and full reports for the 2004, 2003, and 2002 annual surveys in the Sacramento region. References: Baldassare, Mark. April Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Education. San Francisco, CA. Baldassare, Mark. January Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Special Survey on the California State Budget in collaboration with the James Irvine Foundation. San Francisco, CA. Baldassare, Mark. February Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government. San Francisco, CA. Liu, Amy Qiaoming and Jim Meyer. March One Year Later: Sacramento Residents More Optimistic about the Governor and the Economy than Other Californians. California State University, Sacramento. Sacramento, CA. Page 11 of 12

12 Appendix I: The 2005 Annual Survey Research Team Members and Sponsors Director: Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph. D. Associate Professor, Department of Sociology California State University, Sacramento 6000 J. Street Sacramento, CA (phone) (fax) ( ) Advisor: Joseph Sheley, Ph. D. Interim Executive Vice President California State University, Sacramento (phone) ( ) Data Collection Supervisors: Laura Jones Angie Mendoza Sandra Sutherland Institute for Social Research California State University, Sacramento Editor: Britte H. Livingston California State University, Sacramento Graphic Designer: California State University, Sacramento Team Members: Manuel Barajas, Ginger Bennett, Kerby Boschee, Jacqueline Carrigan, Sarah Champany, Claudia Chavez, Katie Conner, Vera Conrad, Ernest Cowles, Ravi Dhami, Mindy Edwards, Dimari Epps, Erin Gonzales, Joe Gutierrez, Julie Harrington, Brenda Hofer, Leora Holbann, Jensen Kile, Britte H. Livingston, Annie Ly, Sharon Maher, Mazie Ngai, Veronica Perez, Jennie Reiken, Refugio Rivas, Jane Rodstein, Susan Smith, Lana Sumati, Sandra Sutherland, and Tonya Todd Sponsors: College of Social Science and Interdisciplinary Studies Department of Sociology Office of Public Affairs Office of Community Collaboration California State University, Sacramento Page 12 of 12