Monthly Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Equity Monthly Market Outlook April 2018 Growth could come back to its Long-term Average Fixed Income Relief for Government Bonds, Continued Thrust for Corporate Bonds 1

2 World Index month Return (%) Due to rising concerns regarding potential trade war impacting global economic recovery, most countries ended in the negative territory this month with Taiwan being the only country that ended higher. Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Europe - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland Swiss Market Index; Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India S&P BSE Sensex; Returns in % terms. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Feb 28, 2018 Mar 28, Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 2

3 Sector Index month Return (%) Due to subdued domestic and global cues, sectoral indices barring Consumer Durables also ended lower this month Among the market-cap based indices, the Large cap index delivered the least negative returns. Index 1 Month (%) S&P BSE SmallCap S&P BSE MidCap S&P BSE Sensex All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Feb 28, 2018 Mar 28, Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 3

4 Indian economy seems to be less susceptible to any global trade war Indian economy less dependent on export markets. India shares the lowest trade surplus with US GDP: $2.5 trillion Exports: $300 bn US trade deficit ($ bn.) with Top trading partners Exports to US: $45 bn China Mexico Japan Germany India Source: IIFL Research. Data for 2017 Calendar year 4

5 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Large-cap drawdown lower than Mid-cap S&P BSE Sensex has fallen least from its peak as compared to S&P BSE Midcap during a market correction, over a period of time 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% Drawdown % -13%, S&P BSE Midcap -9%, S&P BSE Sensex S&P BSE Sensex S&P BSE Midcap Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as on 26 March, Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 5

6 Equity Outlook Growth could come back to its longterm average 6

7 Growth could return to its long-term average GDP Growth (YoY%) 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Global Financial Crisis Policy Logjam, Stimulus withdrawal Demonetisation, GST Growth suffered a temporary setback in the previous two fiscal years due to demonetization and GST implementation. As the impact of these reforms normalizes over the period, we expect growth to rebound in FY2019. Source: Crisil Research. E: Second Advanced Estimate of Central Statistics Office. P: Projection by Monetary Policy Committee 7

8 Possible Factors for Return of Growth G D P Government Reforms Global Growth Demographic Dividend Pick-Up in Rural Consumption 8

9 Government Reforms and Measures NPA recoveries is expected to pick-up with resolution of stressed assets through the adoption of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code Government s Push on Affordable Housing through PMAY has seen strong execution momentum since its initiation in June 2015 Recoveries & Upgrades (Rs. in lakh crore) 1.8 PMAY - Urban FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Jun 2015 to Dec 2016 Jan 2017 to July 2017 Aug 2017 to Dec 2017 Investment approved per month (Rs. in cr.) Units completed per month Source: PMAY Documents, Crisil Research. E:Estimates. PMAY: Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. GNPA: Gross Non-Performing Asstes 9

10 Global growth Global growth has been flat/negative over the last decade. Global earnings is expected to revive which could support earnings growth in the Indian markets. MSCI World Index EPS (Rs) CAGR -2.5% CAGR -26% Source: Edelweiss Investment Research; The EPS for 2018 and 2019 are Estimates. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 10

11 Demographic Dividend India s Population expected to surpass China in 2025 India has the youngest population among emerging and developed economies, which may result in higher consumption rate 25% 20% Share (%) in World Population Population below 25 yrs (2017E in millions) 15% India % China 423 5% US 104 0% Brazil Japan India China Europe United States UK 19 Source: UN DESA, Population Division. E:Estimates 11

12 $ Bn. Pick-up in Rural Consumption E Axis Title Government measures focusing on rural livelihood and rural income such as increasing Minimum Support price for kharif crops, doubling farm income could boost rural consumption in the coming years. Agg. Rural Income Agg. Rural Consumption Source: Goldman Sachs. Agg. Aggregate. E: Estimates 12

13 To Summarize our Outlook on Equity Markets remained volatile on the back of renewed political uncertainty and weakness in the global markets. We continue to remain neutral on equity as valuations are not cheap. Earnings could improve over the next few months and growth could return back to its long term average. We expect growth to be more consumption-driven. Synchronised global growth and execution of various Government reforms could further support growth. Headwinds such as tightening of global monetary policy, rise in crude oil prices and events in the run-up to the 2019 elections could keep markets volatile in the medium-term. Investors who aim to benefit from volatility could consider investing in asset allocation schemes. Investors who aim to maintain asset allocation by taking adequate exposure in debt could consider investing in conservative hybrid schemes. For Investors looking for pure equity exposure, we recommend investing in largecap-oriented schemes. 13

14 Valuation Index Equity Valuation Index Book Partial Profits Stay Invested EIF/BAF Dynamic/Balanced Multicap Schemes Midcap Schemes Our equity valuation index indicates that investors could consider investing in asset allocation schemes with low net equity levels. Investors looking to invest in pure equity schemes could invest in large-cap oriented schemes. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec Government Securities. GDP Gross Domestic Product; EIF ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund; BAF ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund; Dynamic Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan; Balanced -- ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund; Asset Allocation Schemes that invest both in equity and fixed income None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing. 14

15 Our Equity Recommendations These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and may be suitable for investors looking for equity exposure with relatively low risk appetite. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document; 15

16 Conservative Hybrid Equity Thematic Our Equity Recommendations ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund The scheme invests in large-cap stocks. It follows a benchmark hugging approach. The scheme invests in stocks across market capitalisations ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund This scheme is for investors looking for tactical allocation to a particular theme. ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund The scheme invests in large-cap as well as mid-cap stocks The scheme follows a value investment style. It invests in diversified portfolio that are quoting at a discount to their fair/intrinsic value. ICICI Prudential MIP 25 (An Open Ended Income Scheme. Monthly income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This scheme predominantly invests in fixed income securities and a portion in equity and equity related securities The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document; 16

17 Fixed Income Outlook Relief for Government Bonds, Continued thrust for Corporate Bonds 17

18 Checklist for Government Bonds Positives Watchlist Reduced Supply of Govt. Bonds Enhancement of FPI Limits Lowered Inflation projection by MPC Twin Deficits Volatility in Oil Prices Monsoon Impact of HRA and MSP increases MPC: Monetary Policy Committee, MSP: Minimum Support Price, HRA: House Rent Allowance. FPI: Foreign Portfolio Investor 18

19 Supply of Govt. bonds reduced for 1HFY19 The Gross market borrowing for the first half of FY19 is lower as against the usual front-loading pattern witnessed in previous fiscal years The composition of gross market borrowing is skewed towards the short-end and extreme long-end of the curve with new entrant for issuance in the 1-4 yrs space First Half Govt. Borrowing as a % of Full Year Govt. Borrowing % Composition of Gross Market Borrowing FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E 1-4 yr 5-9 yr yr yr >20 yrs Source: Motilal Oswal. E:Estimate 19

20 % of Utilisation Demand to increase with enhancement of FPI limits FPI Government Debt Utilisation status 2,00,000 1,75,000 1,50,000 1,25,000 1,00,000 Limit (Rs. In crore) Foreign Portfolio Investment in Central Government datedsecurities has been close to 100% of its utilization status. An enhancement in the FPI limit from the current Rs. 1,91,300 cr. to Rs. 2,07,300 cr in H1FY19 and Rs. 2,23,300 cr in H2FY19 could tap further demand from such Foreign investors. Central Govt. Securities FPI Limit % of Limits Utilised Source: CDSL. RBI 20

21 Inflation projection for FY19 reduced The Monetary Policy Committee has revised downward its inflation projection to % in H1FY19 and 4.4% in H2FY19. This is well within its band of 2 to 6%. CPI Inflation (YoY %) RBI s Inflation Target 2 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Source: Crisil Research. E-Estimate 21

22 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Watch out for Twin Deficits FY19 factors in a 25% growth in the GST collections which seems ambitious and could put pressure on the fiscal side. Rise in crude oil prices could impact the trade deficit and result in a higher Current Account deficit Total GST collections (Rs. in bn.) Brent Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) Source: CLSA; Crisil Research. BE: Budgeted Estimate. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 22

23 Corporate bond yields at elevated levels Corporate Bond yields have inched up in the last six months and provide a good opportunity to invest at the elevated levels. 8.2 AAA CB - 3 Yr 8.6 AA CB - 3 Yr 9.9 A CB - 3 Yr Sept Mar % 7.76% 30-Sept Mar % 8.25% 30-Sept Mar % 9.64% Source: Crisil Research. CB: Corporate bond. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 23

24 To summarize our Outlook on Fixed Income The 10-year G-Sec yield fell to levels of 7.40% in the month of March 2018 Reduction in government borrowing and RBI allowing banks to spread mark to market losses boded well for the market. Macroeconomic indicators have continued to surprise markets positively. However, downside risks to growth persists such as rising protectionism and concerns around the domestic banking sector. The Monetary Policy Committee will continue to remain watchful on inflation and growth trajectory. We expect inflation to average around 4.75% in FY19 with inflation in first half to be relatively higher. We recommend investors to invest in accrual schemes as they offer relatively higher yield-to-maturity. Investors can consider investing in ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund which focuses on accrual strategy. We recommend investors to invest in short duration schemes. Investors who aim to benefit from volatility could consider investing in ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan. 24

25 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Debt Valuation Index High Duration Moderate Duration Low Duration Aggressively in High Duration Ultra Low Duration 2.71 We recommend investors to invest in Short Duration schemes or accrual schemes such as ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund For those investors who aim to benefit from volatility we recommend investors to invest in ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI Wholesale Price Index; CPI Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing. 25

26 Fixed Income Fixed Income Our Debt Recommendations ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan The scheme invests with the aim to maintain a short duration ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan An All-season scheme which invests across duration based on an inhouse model ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund The schemes invests with the aim to maintain a medium duration with a focus on accrual income ICICI Prudential Savings Fund The scheme invests predominantly in floating-rate instruments ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) The scheme invests with the aim to maintain a low duration with a focus on accrual income ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund The scheme invests predominantly in AA and below rated credit instruments with a Holdtill-maturity approach The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 26

27 Update on Key Schemes 27

28 Sensex Levels BAF Net Equity Exposure (%) ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund: Aim to Benefit From Market Volatility S&P BSE Sensex Levels vis-a-vis ICICI Prudential BAF Net Equity Exposure (%) Stock Selection Blend of Large and Mid Cap Stocks Asset Allocation Net Equity Level Range 30-80% based on In- HouseModel Derivative Strategy Derivative Exposure for Hedging / Portfolio Rebalancing Sensex Level Net Equity Exposure % Source: BSE. ICICI Prudential BAF ICIC Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. Portfolio as on 28 March, Net Equity level has been calculated by adding long positions and subtracting short positions from the net assets value and includes foreign equity and units of mutual fund. Gross equity exposure is maintained between % of the portfolio. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 28

29 % Exposure to Sectors ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund: Benchmark Hugging ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund s, benchmark hugging strategy ensures that it is well diversified across sectors and has sectoral weightage within +/-5% of benchmark (Nifty 50) Scheme Wt. Benchmark Wt. OW/UW 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 8% Overweight/Underweight 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 0% Software Auto Oil, Gas & Petroleum Products Consumer Non Durables & Retailing Power Pharma & Healthcare Services Industrial Products & Capital Goods -8% Data Source: Valuefy Solutions; Portfolio as on March 28, 2018; Wt weight; Benchmark: Nifty 50. OW: Overweight, UW: Underweight. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 29

30 Accrual - Based Schemes Well Researched Credit Universe Based on various filters, qualitative and quantitative research Scheme Name Modified Yield-To- Duration (In Yrs.) Maturity (%) Broadened Exposure Mitigating concentration risk by diversification Managing Duration Risk Clearly defined modified duration range Strict Internal Limits at Issuer Level and rating level ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund* ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document; Data as on March 28, 2018; *ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open-ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) 30

31 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversifed equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and debt (for defensive considerations) *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 31

32 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A focused large cap equity fund that aims for growth by investing in companies in the large cap category *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversified equity fund that aims to generate returns by investing in stocks with attractive valuations *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims to provide long term capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 32

33 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by predominantly investing in companies belonging to the service industry. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A growth oriented equity fund that invests in equity and equity related securities of core sectors and associated feeder industries. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 33

34 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety, and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open-ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 34

35 Riskometers ICICI Prudential MIP 25 (An Open Ended Income Scheme. Monthly income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium to Long term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A debt fund that aims to deliver consistent performance by investing in a basket of debt and money market instruments with a view to provide reasonable returns while maintaining optimum balance of safety, liquidity and yield. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 35

36 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A Debt Fund that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 36

37 Disclaimer for Mutual Funds Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as will, expect, should, believe and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. 37