Presentation on Equity Markets. 10 th Jul 18
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1 Presentation on Equity Markets 10 th Jul 18
2 Performance: Regional markets 2
3 Performance: Sectoral Indices 3
4 International: Factors influencing markets Global Growth: Trade War: EM Currency: Expected growth of ~3.2% in CY18 US & China trade war will effect global GDP growth China devaluation could be a threat to EM currencies US Fed rate: Two more rate hikes in 2018 (total 4 rate hikes in 2018) ECB Tapering: Oil prices: From 60 bn to 30 bn to future 15 bn to Zero in Dec 18 Monitor OPEC supply increase and IRAN sanctions Global PMI : JP Morgan Global Composite PMI is steady at ~54 China PMI: Bond Yields: Market Mfg PMI was 51 in Jun 18 Expect the US 10 Yr to peak out at 3.5% in future 4
5 Domestic Macros: Important Indicators Twin Deficits: Upside risk to CAD (2.9%) & Fiscal Deficit (3.5%). BoP: Captures Inflows & Outflows. Turning negative in FY19. PMI: Recovering - Mfg PMI (53); Service PMI (52.6) Credit Offtake: Currency: Inflation: RBI Rates: Monsoon: Govt. Spend: Still remains subdued in single digit Strong Dollar, High crude prices & FPI outflows = Weak INR CPI to average >4.5% in FY19 Vs. 3.6% in FY18 Look for another 25 bps rate hike in CY18. Start is poor, reservoir levels are low Strong, but could slow down 5
6 Macros: Headwinds 6
7 GST: Need monthly run rate of Rs.1.04 lakh cr 7
8 Trade Deficit: Non oil, non gold at an all time high Low Corporate profits & low savings = > CAD. CAD/GDP to go to ~2.9% in FY19E. 8
9 MSP: Impact of bps on CPI Weighted average increase in MSP is ~17.4% over FY18 season. 9
10 Flows: SIPs dominate local flows FII outflows (CYTD) S.Korea: USD 3.4 bn Taiwan: USD 10.0 bn Thailand: USD 5.9 bn Indonesia: USD 3.6 bn Phillipines: USD 1.2 bn 10
11 Q1 FY19E Earnings Preview: Aggressive future estimates 11
12 Earnings: Aggressive future estimates KIE is building in Nifty earnings growth of 23% in FY19E and 20% in FY20E. Numbers look aggressive but the base of FY18 is very low. Expect RoEs to improve to more than 15% in FY20E (from 12.7% in FY18). 12
13 Earnings: Estimates for past few years KIE EPS Estimates: Sensex FY19E: FY20E: Nifty FY19E: FY20E: Rs.1755 Rs.2180 Rs.545 Rs.670 Note: ~45% of Nifty earnings comes from Forex driven companies. 13
14 Nifty Valuations: On the higher side Nifty valuations rich at 18.8x Fw PE but not in bubble zone. Further re-rating looks difficult given macro headwinds. 14
15 Valuations: Earnings Yield Vs. Bond Yield Bond Yields are far higher then Earnings yield. This puts Equity market valuations at risk. 15
16 Mid Cap Vs Nifty Valuations Source: Kotak PCG Research 16
17 Investment Strategy Nifty FY19E EPS: Rs.545 & FY20E EPS: Rs.670 Nifty trades at 18.8x on 1 Yr Fw EPS. Hardly any scope of re-rating. Returns to be based on earnings delivery rather than PE expansion. Several midcaps have corrected in Additional Surveillance measures by SEBI, Corporate governance issues & Auditor related issues. Need to be very selective while choosing midcaps. Focus on Good management, superior earnings growth & reasonable valuations. Apportion larger allocation towards large caps (that too in safer names). Preferred Sectors: Automobiles, Pharmaceuticals, Agro Chemicals, Housing Finance, Metals and Infra & Construction. 17
18 Preferred Picks: Also add: Pharma, Housing Fin & Agrochemicals Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot 18 Kotak Securities - Institutional Equities - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > India Daily Institutional Equities Research Report
19 Ideas for this month: Source: Kotak PCG Research & Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot Kotak Securities - Institutional Equities - Path: Login to > Research > Equity Reports > India Daily Institutional Equities Research Report 19
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24 Thank You 24
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