Monthly Market Outlook November 2017

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1 Monthly Market Outlook November 2017 Equity Fixed Income The Next Private Capex Upswing Follow Accrual or Dynamic Duration Strategy

2 World Index (1 Month Return) Month Return (%) Major World Indices ended higher this month due to strengthening economic activity and subdued geopolitical tensions Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Europe - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland Swiss Market Index; Taiwan ;India S&P BSE Sensex; Returns in % terms. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Sept 29, 2017 Oct 31, 2017.

3 Sector Index Month Return (%) Most of the Sectoral Indices ended higher this month, among which Telecom gained the most followed by Energy and Oil & Gas Among the market-cap based index, the small-cap index had given relatively higher returns during the month. Index 1 Month (%) S&P BSE SmallCap 8.94 S&P BSE MidCap 7.23 S&P BSE Sensex 5.97 All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Sept 29, 2017 Oct 31, 2017.

4 PMI - Composite Improvement in Business Indicators Enhanced Confidence in Indian economy witnessed by Rebound in PMI - Composite Ease of doing business ranking For India has improved due to health policy environment PMI Purchasing Managers Index; Source: Fixed Income Research; World Bank

5 Equity: Economic Revival Rural Recovery Setting the stage for Next Private Capex Upswing Pick-up in Credit growth Infrastructure Focus

6 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Rural Recovery Rural recovery can be seen with increasing wage growth in rural area Increasing Rural wage is driving higher consumption demand in Tractors 7 6 (% YoY) (% YoY) 28% 37% % 15% 18% 13% 8% 3-2% Source: CLSA; JMFL

7 Government s Thrust on Infrastructure Capex Outlay (Rs. in bn.) 6920 Mega Highway Project of building ~83000 km over the next 5 yrs 3500 km of Railway lines to be commissioned in FY 18 PMAY Urban: 1.02 cr units to be built PMAY Rural: 1.2 cr. Units to be built Electrification of ~40 mn. Households by FY 18 under Saubhagya Scheme Mega Highway Plan Railways PMAY Power Source: Macquerie Research; PMAY: Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana; Capex Outlay for Power is under Saubhagya scheme

8 Industrial Credit growth bottoming out %, y-o-y Industry Sevices Personal loans Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Industrial credit growth is expected to pick up with Government thrust towards Infrastructure and due to Government s PSB recapitalization program Source: Nomura Asia Insights Report October 2017; PSB Public Sector Bank

9 To Summarise Our Outlook For Equity Market sentiments were heightened this month due to multiple growth measures taken by the government: a) Recapitalization of state-owned banks; b) Announcement of Mega-Highway Plan; c) Increase in Minimum Support Price (MSP) of the rabi crop We expect the re-capitalization plan to give banks greater visibility of capital to pursue haircuts aggressively or boost the credit cycle resolution process. Also, if the targeted construction of the ambitious highway project is met, the activities in the infrastructure space could pick-up. The increase in MSP is also a meaningful positive as it could help raise the spending capacity in the rural areas. With increased business activity and improving demand scenario, we believe that capacity utilisation could improve going forward and the corporates could report better earnings. Equity market is expected to be supported further due to buoyancy in the global equity market. Rising crude prices remains a risk for Indian economy but we expect prices to remain range-bound with any sharp uptick to be arrested by shale oil supply. Investors are recommended to invest in dynamic asset allocation Schemes as they are well-positioned to benefit from market-cycles over long-term.

10 Equity Valuation Index Book Partial Profits EIF/BAF Dynamic/Balanced Stay Invested Equity Valuation Index, Multicap Schemes Midcap Schemes Our equity valuation index indicates that investors could consider investing in asset allocation schemes. Investors looking to invest in diversified equity schemes could invest in large-cap oriented schemes. Investors with high risk appetite could invest in thematic schemes encompassing infrastructure. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec Government Securities. GDP Gross Domestic Product; EIF ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund; BAF ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund; Dynamic ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan; Balanced ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund

11 Our Equity Scheme Recommendations Our Recommendations Equity Schemes Pure Equity Schemes ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund These schemes are positioned aggressively to gain from recovery in the economy. These Schemes aim to generate long term wealth creation. Asset Allocation Schemes ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and can be suitable for investors aiming to participate in equities with low volatility. Theme-based schemes ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund Investors could invest in these thematic schemes for tactical allocation. It would be a high risk investment option. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.

12 Feeling Left Out of the Bull Run? You can participate in equity through ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. S&P BSE Sensex vs. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund s net equity level LHS: S&P BSE Sensex Levels RHS: Net Equity Exposure The scheme seeks to follow dynamic asset allocation strategy based on an in-house valuation model. It aims to reduce the portion of equity assets in its portfolio when markets are expensive & vice versa Buy Low Sell High 78% 73% 68% 63% 58% 53% 48% 43% 38% % Data Source: MFI, Internal; Data As on: Oct 31, 2017: The asset allocation and investment strategies will be as per the Scheme Information Document of the Scheme. Net Equity level has been calculated by adding long positions and adjusting short positions from the net asset value. The gross equity exposure is maintained between % of the portfolio.

13 Why invest in Bharat 22 ETF Diversified with exposure capping: Sector 20% & Stock 15% Mix of leaders from different sectors representing balance between Stability & Growth Attractive Dividend yield and Earnings growth in comparison to S&P BSE Sensex/Nifty 50* Companies which can benefit from Government Reforms and Initiatives Name of the index Total Returns (CAGR %) as on Oct 26, year 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index Nifty CPSE S&P BSE SENSEX NIFTY Index Constituents as on Sept 29, 2017 Company Name Basic Industry % Wt. NALCO Basic Materials 5.13 ONGC 5.54 Indian Oil Energy 5.00 BPCL (18.80%) 4.54 Coal India 3.72 State Bank of India 7.25 Axis Bank 7.82 Bank of Baroda Finance 1.22 REC (18.67%) 1.18 PFC 0.99 Indian Bank 0.21 ITC FMCG Larsen & Toubro Bharat Electronics Industrials 3.48 Engineers India (22.52%) 1.44 NBCC (India) 0.68 Power Grid Corp of India 7.73 NTPC 7.07 Gail India Utilities 4.24 NHPC (20.63%) 1.08 NLC India 0.27 SJVN 0.23 *Data as on Sept 29, 2017; Dividend received from the scheme constituents shall be reinvested in the scheme in order to minimize tracking error. The above characteristics are in respect of S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index which is the underlying index for BHARAT 22 ETF. Data Source: AIPL, NSE. Past Performance may or may not sustain in future. S&P BSE BHARAT 22 Index: First Value Date Mar 17, 2006; Launch Date Aug 10, The performance figures pertain to the Index and do not in any manner indicate the returns/performance of the Scheme. Performance of S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index is on back tested basis.

14 Fixed Income Follow Accrual or Dynamic Duration Strategy

15 CPI is within comfort range 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17-2% CPI Combined India CPI Food & Beverages Index India s Consumer Price Index for September 2017 was unchanged at 3.28% with softening in food inflation offset by hardened fuel inflation. CPI (excluding food, fuel and light) has been relatively stable. We believe that inflation can be in line with RBI s (Reserve Bank of India) expectations with a downward bias. Source: Mospi.nic.in, CCER; CPI Combined - Consumer Price Index

16 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Real Interest Rates Real Interest Rate in Positive Territory Real Yields (%) Year G-Sec Yield (%) Real Yields Gsec-10yr Source: Mospi.nic.in, CCER; Real Yields = 10 Yr G-sec yield CPI Inflation

17 Negative Real Interest Rates Phase High Consumption High Borrowing High Investment in Physical Assets Low Savings High Inflation High CAD Negative real interest rate phase witnesses higher economic activities. Potential Gainers in this phase include investors in Physical Assets Currency Depreciati on Potential Losers in this phase include investors in Financial Assets CAD: Current Account Deficit

18 Positive Real Interest Rates Phase Low Consumption High Financial Savings Low Investment in Physical Assets Currency Appreciation % Low Credit Growth Low Inflation Lower CAD Positive real interest rate phase sees slower economic activities. Potential Gainers in this phase include investors in Financial Assets Potential Losers in this phase include investors in Physical Assets CAD: Current Account Deficit

19 Macro Indicators Improved significantly in last 5 years Indicators June 2013 June 2015 NOW CPI inflation * Fx Reserves (USD Mn) 2,80, ,55, ,99,921^ Oil Prices USD/bbl ^ RBI policy rates 7.25% 7.25% 6.00%^ 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 7.5% 7.9% 6.86^ Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)** 4.8% 4.1% 3.2% Political Scenario Uncertain Stable Stable Source: RBI, Internal, MOSPI. *Sept 2017, ^Oct 2017, ** All figures are as per respective Fiscal Year: FY13, FY15, FY18; G-Sec Government Securities; GDP Gross Domestic Product; USD/bbl USD per barrel; CAD Current Account Deficit; RBI Reserve Bank of India

20 To Summarise Our Outlook For Fixed Income Government bond prices (gilts) hardened during the month of October Yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.79% 2027 paper ended at 6.86% on October 31, 2017 compared with 6.66% on September 29, (Source: Crisil) The bond market was volatile during the month of October 2017 owing to the noise around government announcement. Government announcement to recapitalize banks with Rs 2.11 Trillion and the Rs 6.92 Trillion road construction plan also added to the negative sentiments. We believe bank recapitalization program may not be disruptive and eventually may not impact the Government securities demand-supply balance in the market. On the global front, crude oil prices also weighed on Indian yields. We believe that oil could remain range bound, as at the current level shale gas could become profitable, which in turn could result in the ramp up of production. We continue to believe that inflation could be lower as compared to the RBI projection for March 2018 and that this could provide the central bank with an opportunity for a rate cut. Having said that, the bond market will watch out for cues from the evolving fiscal condition and on the government s recapitalization program. Investors looking to benefit from this volatility could invest in ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan. Those investors looking for reasonable returns and better carry may consider accrual schemes. Investors could also choose to invest in shortmedium duration schemes for better risk adjusted returns.

21 Debt Valuation Index High Duration Moderate Duration Aggressively in High Duration 6.59 We recommend investors to invest in Dynamic Duration schemes such as ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan, a model-based scheme that has the flexibility to change duration stance Low Duration Ultra Low Duration Investors looking for reasonable returns could consider investing in schemes following Accrual strategy. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YoY Returns, Gold YoY returns and Real Estate YoY returns over G-Sec Yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI Wholesale Price Index; CPI Consumer Price Index

22 Fixed Income Schemes Fixed Income Recommendations Accrual Schemes ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus) These schemes are better suited for investors looking for accrual strategy. Dynamic Duration Schemes ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan These schemes can dynamically change duration strategy based on market conditions. Short Duration Scheme ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan This scheme maintains short duration maturity. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.

23 (% YoY) ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan: Benefit from volatility by Model-based Duration Management Year G-sec Yields Model-Based Duration Schemes 9 8 Increase Duration when yields are expected to fall 7 Volatile Phase Reduce Duration when yields are expected to move up 6 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Source: Fixed Income Research, G-Sec: Government Security, Data as on Oct 31, The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.

24 ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan: A True-to-Label Dynamic Debt Scheme ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan manages its exposure to Sovereign instruments and Corporate Securities based on the underlying interest rate scenarios. Month-end date Govt. Securities (% Exposure) Credit Papers (% exposure) 10 Yr G-sec Yield (%) Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct As expectations were built for fall in yields, the scheme increased exposure to government securities As the yields were more range-bound, the scheme had higher exposure to credit papers. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The Portfolio of the scheme is subject to change.

25 Why invest in Accrual - based schemes? Well Researched Credit Universe Based on various filters, qualitative and quantitative research Broadened Exposure Mitigating concentration risk by diversification Managing Duration Risk Clearly defined modified duration range Strict Internal Limits at Issuer Level and rating level Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund Modified Yield-To- Duration (In Yrs.) Maturity (%) The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document; Data as on October 31, 2017

26 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversifed equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and debt (for defensive considerations) *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

27 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A focused large cap equity fund that aims for growth by investing in companies in the large cap category *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversified equity fund that aims to generate returns by investing in stocks with attractive valuations *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims to provide long term capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

28 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for capital appreciation by investing in mid cap stocks. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by predominantly investing in companies belonging to the service industry. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

29 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A growth oriented equity fund that invests in equity and equity related securities of core sectors and associated feeder industries. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A Debt Fund that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term wealth creation solution A debt fund that invests in Debt and money market instruments with a view to provide regular income and growth of capital. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

30 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by primarily investing in securities of companies belonging to infrastructure and allied sectors. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety, and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open-ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

31 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A debt fund that aims to deliver consistent performance by investing in a basket of debt and money market instruments with a view to provide reasonable returns while maintaining optimum balance of safety, liquidity and yield. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

32 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them BHARAT 22 ETF is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation An Exchange Traded Fund that aims to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns provided by S&P BSE BHARAT 22 Index, subject to tracking error. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

33 Disclaimer for Mutual Funds Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as will, expect, should, believe and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. AIPL Disclaimer: The "S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index" is a product of AIPL, a joint venture among affiliates of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ( SPDJI ) and BSE Limited ( BSE ), and has been licensed for use by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited ( Licensee ). Standard & Poor s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC ( S&P ); BSE and SENSEX are registered trademarks of BSE Limited; Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ( Dow Jones ); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by AIPL and sublicensed for certain purposes by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. BHARAT 22 ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, BSE, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.

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