Russia's Economic Transformation: A Conversation With Ruben Vardanian Monday, April 26, :30 PM - 3:45 PM
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1 Russia's Economic Transformation: A Conversation With Ruben Vardanian Monday, April 26, :30 PM - 3:45 PM Speaker: Ruben Vardanian, Chairman and CEO, Troika Dialog Group Interviewer: Michael Intriligator, Senior Fellow, Milken Institute; Professor Emeritus of Economics, Political Science and Public Policy, University of California, Los Angeles Despite its abundance of natural gas, oil and precious metals, Russia has always been considered the riskiest of the BRIC countries for foreign investors. Seeking to change this image, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has laid out an ambitious plan of modernization that includes cleaning up the nation's pervasive corruption. Medvedev insists that Russia must end its overreliance on commodities, and indeed, its economy contracted sharply in 2008 as oil prices fell. Can Russia diversify and prosper by creating a more knowledge-based economy? Will the recent uptick in foreign investment gain momentum? As oil prices surge once again, is Russia in for another boom-and-bust cycle? What lies ahead for the ruble? What are the risks for foreign corporations doing business in Russia? Ruben Vardanian, chairman and CEO of Troika Dialog and a key figure in Russia's capital markets, will join us for a one-on-one interview that will shed new light on the changes under way in the Russian economy.
2 Russia country with a large span Time zone span: UTC+2 to UTC+11 Geography: lowest point -28m, highest point 5,633 m Resources: 1/6 of the world s land mass 33% of the world s proven gas reserves 16% of the world s proven coal reserves 770 mln hectares of forests (Canada mln ha) 4,312 cubic km of fresh water (Europe - 2,900 cubic km) Temperature: -68 o C in January in Oymyakon, +40 o C in July in steppe areas Diversity: over 130 nationalities and practically all religions represented Lifestyle: primitive communal in remote villages, modern urban in the capital and large cities
3 Political environment
4 Map of changes in the political landscape Golden Hundred* (3 pers.) Ex-military/ KGB officials (2 pers.) Medvedev s call (25 pers.) Putin s call (38 pers.) Exregional officials (10 pers.) Ex-federal official i (10 pers.) *Top 100 young leaders [Source: Institute for Regional Policy - Regionalistica] Political heavyweights (20 pers.)
5 Number of government employees per 1000 people in Russia [Source: Federal State Statistics Service]
6 Market share of state-owned banks, % of total AuM [Source: Higher School of Economics]
7 State bailout, % of GDP 16% 15% 12% 8% 4% 0% 5.80% 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% 0.20% China US India Russia UK Brazil [Source: The Economist]
8 Macroeconomic environment
9 GDP $,Bn F 2011F [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA] China Brazil Russia India
10 GDP per capita, $ F 2011F Russia Brazil China India [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
11 Unemployment rate % India Russia Brazil China [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
12 International reserves $, Bn [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA] China Russia India Brazil
13 CPI 16.0 % India Russia Brazil China F 2011F -4.0 [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
14 Public debt $, Bn China India Brazil Russia [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
15 External debt $, Bn Russia China India Brazil [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
16 BRIC trade balance $, Bn China Russia Brazil India [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
17 Capital market environment
18 Trading volumes, $bn (daily average) China Russia 5,316 Brazil India [Source: Bloomberg, 2009]
19 BRIC stock market growth 1600 % RTS MSCI Brazil MSCI India MSCI EM MSCI China [Source: Bloomberg]
20 BRIC market capitalization $, Bn Shanghai BOVESPA RTS SENSEX [Source: Bloomberg]
21 BRIC market capitalization growth 3500% Since 2001 Russian market has grown by 1913% 2800% RTS 2100% Chinese market 1400% SENSEX by 690% 700% 0% Shanghai BOVESPA [Source: Bloomberg]
22 Total M&A volume 200, , $, mln 120, , , China Brazil India Russia [Source: Thomson Reuters]
23 Average M&A deal volume Brazil $, mln China India [Source: Thomson Reuters] Russia
24 Total IPO volume ($mln) 160, , China $, mln 80, , Brazil India Russia [Source: Dealogic]
25 Average IPO deal volume ($mln) $, mln [Source: Dealogic] Brazil China Russia India
26 Financial market sophistication Benchmark: 1 UK Switzerland Luxemburg 10 Brazil Ranking India China Russia [Source: Global Competitiveness Report ]
27 Human capital environment
28 Population growth % 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% F 2011F India Brazil China Russia -1.0% [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, IMF, CIA]
29 Birth and death rates (pro mille) Birth rate Death rate 0 [Source: CIA 2009 World Factbook] India Brazil China Russia
30 Life expectancy China Brazil India Russia [Source: CIA 2009 World Factbook]
31 Education and healthcare expenditures % Education Expenditures / GDP Healthcare and sport/gdp [Source: Federal State Statistics Service]
32 Literacy Russia 99.50% China Brazil India [Source: CIA 2009 World Factbook] 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
33 Education Total Number of Universities (Left Axis) University Students per people of population (Left Axis) Number of Students per Professor (Right Axis) [Source: Federal State Statistics Service]
34 Quality of management schools Benchmark: 1 0 France France Switzerland 20 India Ranking [Source: Global Competitiveness Report ] Brazil China Russia
35 Brain drain Benchmark: 1 US US US Ranking [Source: Global Competitiveness Report ] Brazil China India Russia
36 Corporate spending on R&D Benchmark: 1 Switzerland China 30 Brazil Ranking [Source: Global Competitiveness Report ] 35 India Russia
37 Government spending on R&D, % of GDP 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.00% 00% [Source: OECD, 2009]
38 Innovation Benchmark: 1 Japan US US 25 China 30 India Brazil Ranking [Source: Global Competitiveness Report ] 50 Russia
39 Mobile phone subscriptions per 100 People Russia, 132 Brazil, 78 China, 47 India, 29 [Source: UNdata]
40 Investment climate
41 FDI China Russia India Brazil [Source: Troika Dialog estimates, Central Bank of Brazil, IMF]
![State Statistics Service, 2009] Agriculture 1% Other](/docs-images/82/86443205/images/42-5.jpg "1% Supply and redistribution ib ti of electricity,")
42 FDI in Russia by sector Transport and communications 3% Financial 4% Construction 5% Real estate, advertisment, etc. 17% Extraction of raw materials 20% [Source: Federal State Statistics Service, 2009] Agriculture 1% Other 1% Supply and redistribution ib ti of electricity, gas and water 1% Manufacturing 26% Retail 22%
43 Market share of foreign companies in Russia Banking Power Generation Consumer 25% 11% Over 25% Citibank Raiffeisen Bank Unicredit Enel E.ON Fortum Beer 85% Soft drinks 53% Packaged food 15% [Source: Troika Dialog estimates]
44 Russian Eurobonds compared to other countries 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: Troika Dialog. *Russian USD Sovereign Eurobonds (in euro) NB: All rating are represented in the following order: S&P/Moody s/fitch. Russia* BBB/Baa1e/B BB Spain Govt AA+/Aaa/AAA Italian Government A+/Aa2/AA- Germany Govt AAA/Aaa/AAA
45 Russian Eurobonds compared to other countries 6.40% 5.40% 4.40% Russia BBB/Baa1e/ BBB China A+/A1/A+ Brazil BBB- /Baa3/BBB- 3.40% 2.40% US AAA/Aaa/AAA 1.40% 0.40% Source: Troika Dialog NB: All rating are represented in the following order: S&P/Moody s/fitch.
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