Financial Markets and Institutional Investors in Central Asia

Transcription

1 Financial Markets and Institutional Investors in Central Asia The Sixth Conference on Financial Sector Development in the Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan and Mongolia Istanbul (29-30 April 2004) Toshiharu Kitamura Waseda University

2 Appendix (basis points) Interest Rate Spreads 1000 High Yield Spread EMBI+ (ex. Argentina) BAA spread AAA spread Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets, LP.

3 Appendix 1-2 Emerging market spreads Daily data until 20 May 2003 Emerging markets (total) Americas Asia Middle East /06/01 01/07/01 01/08/01 01/09/01 01/10/01 01/11/01 01/12/01 01/01/02 01/02/02 01/03/02 01/04/02 01/05/02 01/06/02 01/07/02 01/08/02 01/09/02 01/10/02 01/11/02 01/12/02 01/01/03 01/02/03 01/03/03 01/04/03 01/05/03 basis points Source: Thomson Financial Datastream ( Note: Lehman indices, redemption yields minus 5-year US government bond index yield.

4 Appendix 2 Issue Amount by Market Emerging Economies in International Bond Markets in 2002 Global 34.47% Yankee (NY) 0.04% Issue Amount by Currency GBP 0.4% EUR 12.0% JPY 5.2% Others 0.6% Euro (Europe) 61.64% Samurai (Tokyo) 3.85% USD 81.8% Issue Amount by Region Middle East 8% Former USSR 7% Issue Amount by Sector Financial 12% Municipal 2% Eastern Europe 14% East Asia 45% Sovereign 45% Latin America 26% Corporate 41% Source: Bloomberg, visited Oct. 20, 2003.

5 Appendix 3-1 Financial Channels of Banks and Bond & Stock Markets Outstanding of Bank Loans Outstanding of Corporate Bonds ( % share of GDP) Total Market Value of Stocks end-1997 end-2000 end-1997 end-2000 end-1997 end-2000 Thailand Indonesia Mlalaysia Korea Philippines n.a. n.a Japan United States Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank World Development Indicators and other national statistics. Note: In the Philippines, commercial papers are more common than corporate bonds, thus the amount of corporate bonds in the Philippines may be negligible.

6 Appendix 3-2 Financial Channels of Banks and Bond & Stock Markets Total Market Value of Stocks Outstanding of Corporate Bonds Outstanding of Bank Loans % share of GDP Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Korea Philippines Japan United States countries

7 Appendix 4 Gross domestic savings and financial markets Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) Out. bal. of bank loans Total markt. capitalization Out. bal. of govt. bonds (A) Out. bal. of cor. bonds (B) (A)+(B) S. Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines n.a.? 84 Thailand China East Asia LDCs Japan (1996) 30.9 (2000) USA Sources: IFS; individual countries data. (H. Yamagami, Tokyo Mitsubishi Bank, Oct. 2003)

8 Appendix 5-1 Financial Intermediation Funds Indirect Finance Financial Intermediaries Funds Institutional investors: Money Market pension funds, life insurance companies, collective investments, etc. Funds Saver-Lenders 1Households 2Business firms 3Public sector 4Foreigners Funds Financial Brokerage Direct Finance Funds Borrower-Spenders 1Business firms 2Public sector 3Households 4Foreigners Based on F.S.Mishkin and S.G. Eakins, 2003, Financial Markets & Institutions

9 Appendix 5-2 Financial Intermediation Savings? Indirect Finance Financial Intermediaries (Inter-bank Money Market) Loans (directed?)? Central Bank Government (short-term g. bonds) Saver-Lenders 1Households 2Business firms 3Public sector 4Foreigners Savings (hard currency)? Financial Brokerage Direct Finance Informal Economy? Borrower-Spenders 1Business firms 2Public sector 3Agriculture sector

10 Appendix 6 Composite Currency Practices Hard Currency Domestic Currency Wealth storage (savings) Informal economy! Reduction in tax revenue? Corruption! Unit of account (calculations) Means of exchange (payments) Effectiveness of monetary policy? Policy formation? Money supply currency depreciation only? Interest rates interbank transactions only? Devaluation limited? (because of the informal market where the devaluation has been preemptied)

11 Appendix 7 Financial markets in transition economies Financial markets in transition economies Money Market Bond Market Derivatives Structured Hybrid Securities Market Stock Market Short-term 1 year Long-term Medium-term Indefinite

12 Appendix 8 Financial Reforms in Central Asia 1992 and before and later Kazakh. Banking law adopted Mass privatization First sovereign eurobond issued Stock exchange Sovereign eurobond 00:national fund tenge introduced begins First treasury bills issued begins trading restarted First municipal bond issued 01:Capital amnesty decreed First domestic corporate bond issued Kyrgyz 91:Banking laws adopted som introduced Treasury bills market initiated Stock exchange begins trading Tajik. 91:Banking legistration adopted 91:Small-scale privatization begins Tajik ruble introduced Large-scale privatization launched Treasury system reformed New banking law adopted somni introduced Turkmen. Banking law adopted manat introduced Privatization program started First treasury bills issued Uzbek. Securities law adopted sum introduced First treasury bills issued New privatization Stock exchange established Banking law adopted program for 27 large SOEs Privatization program adopted (Business Fund) Russia 88:New two-tier banking system Treasury bills market initiated Securities law adopted First sovereign eurobond issued First corporate Financial crisis Protection law for market 92:Voucher privatization begins New ruble introduced (Old ruble zone collapsed) Eurobond issued investors adopted Azer. manat introduced (Privatization started) Banking law adopted Treasury bills market initiated Voucher privatization begins

13 Appendix 9 Investors Scope of Interest and Borrowers Scope for Fund-Raising Targets International financial institutions (IFIs) (global bonds) (eurobonds) Government bonds Sovereign bonds (govt. affiliated or local governments) SMEs (venture businesses) Big corporations Financial institutions Domestic Private Public Foreign financial markets (incl. dragon markets) Euro market

14 Appendix 10 Sovereign Ratings of Local-Currency-Denominated Long-Term Debt country MOODY'S S&P FITCH R&I USA Aaa AAA AAA AAA UK Aaa AAA AAA AAA Germany Aaa AAA AAA AAA France Aaa AAA AAA AAA Japan A2 AA- AA- AAA S. Korea A3 A+ AA- NR China NR NR A NR Indonesia B2 B+ B NR Malaysia A3 A+ A NR Philippines Baa3 BBB BB+ NR Singapore Aaa AAA AAA AAA Thailand Baa1 A A- NR Argentine B3 SD C NR Brazil B2 BB B NR Poland A2 A A+ NR Czech A1 A+ A NR Hungary A1 A A+ NR Russia Baa3 BB+ BB+ NR Ukraine B2 B B+ NR Azerbaijan NR NR BB- NR Kazakhstan Baa1 BBB- BBB- NR Kyrgyz Rep. NR NR NR NR Tajikistan NR NR NR NR Turkmenistan B2 NR NR NR Uzbekistan NR NR NR NR Source: Bloomberg's website, visited Oct. 15, 2003.

15 Appendix 11 International Commitments of Transition Economies WTO membership IMFArticleVIII status Armenia --- May 1997 Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia June 2000 December 1996 Kazakhstan --- July 1996 Kyrgyz Rep. December 1998 March 1995 Moldova July 2001 June 1995 Russia --- June 1996 Tajikistan (Observer status) --- Turkmenistan Ukraine --- September 1996 Uzbekistan --- November 2003

16 Appendix EU Accession Countries (and 10 Acceding Countries) Source: ECB bond markets and long-term interest rates in EU accession countries (October 2003).

17 Appendix 13-1 Structure of Securities Business Rating institutions Supervisory authorities Needed to be smooth (STP) Analysts Banks Bond issuer Brokerage houses Investors Underwriters Fiscal agent Secondary market Private custodians The central securities depository Structure of securities business: multi-layered--with underwriter, brokerage houses, banks, and custodians for depository services between the bond issuer and the investors, and rating institutions, fiscal agents, supervisory authorities, and others for the investors benefits.

18 Appendix 13-2 Structure of the Secondary Market Investment bankers (securities house) Securities houses Market maker or Dealer/Trader Sales Inter-dealer broker Dealer/Trader Sales Investor Investor Agency broker Retail broker Investor Investor Supervisory organization, Analysts, Economists Money markets and other financial markets

19 Structure of Capital Markets in Central Asia issuers Securitized loans Structured bond Private corporate Municipal Kazakh OECD countries Russia Sovereign Uzbek Central govt. Kyrgyz Turkm. Tajik Short end Medium Long types of markets Derivatives Equity Hybrid