Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018
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1 Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division May 2018
2 Macroeconomic Outlook
3 Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita Average GDP growth rate of 5.5% between th largest economy in the world & 6 th largest economy amongst the EU countries More than 9 mn job creation since 2005 Prudent fiscal policy since
4 ,304 7, ,656 8, ,931 10, , ,588 11,019 10,883 10,597 12,480 12, Gross Domestic Product Turkey s GDP came in at 851 billion USD in GDP (billion USD) Per capita GDP (USD) Source: Datastream, Turkstat
5 Economic Growth Growth was largely driven by private consumption and investments in Real GDP Growth (%) Contributions to Growth (2009=100 chain linked volume index % points) Stock Change Net Exports Investment Consumption -6 GDP Source: Datastream, Turkstat
6 Leading Indicators Economic activity maintained a strong performance in the first quarter. 25 Calendar Adjusted Industrial Production (yoy, % change) 120 Confidence Indices * Real sector confidence index Economic confidence index Consumer confidence index Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Source: Turkstat, Datastream 6
7 Labor Market More than 9 million new jobs were created since Labor Market Indicators* (%) Unemployment Labor Participation Rate Employment* (millions) (*) Seasonally adjusted figures. Latest figure as of February Source: Turkstat, Datastream
8 Fiscal Discipline Fiscal discipline has been the main pillar of economic policy. Budget Deficit (% GDP) General Government Debt Stock (% GDP) Maastricht criterion: 3% Maastricht criterion: 60% F* (*) Medium Term Program forecasts F* Source: Turkstat, Treasury, Ministry of Development
9 Exports Export volume reached all-time highs. Exports* (billion USD) Exports* (% of total) Motor vehicles 15.5 Boilers and machineries 9.1 Precious stones 5.8 Knitted and crocheted goods 5.6 Iron and steel 5.4 Electrical machinery and equipment 5.3 Non knitted and crocheted goods 3.8 Articles of iron and steel 3.6 Plastic and articles Edible fruits and nuts 2.5 (*) 12-month cumulative figures as of March 2018 Source: Turkstat, Datastream 9
10 Exports Turkey has been successful in diversifying export markets Top 10 export markets % of total 2018* % of total Exports* (% of total) 1. Germany Germany UK UK Italy Iraq 5.6 EU US US France Italy Spain 7. Iraq UAE 7. France Near and Middle East Netherlands Spain Russia Romania 2.4 The share of first Netherlands Israel 2.3 The share of first (*) 12-month cumulative figures as of March Source: Datastream, Turkstat
11 Imports Import volume exceeded 240 billion USD. Imports* (billion USD) Imports* (% of total) Minerals and Fuels 15.7 Boilers and machineries 11.5 Electrical machinery and equipment 8.8 Precious Stones 8.0 Iron and steel 7.4 Motor Vehicles 7.4 Plastic and articles Organic chemicals Optical products Pharmaceutical products (*) 12-month cumulative figures as of March 2018 Source: Datastream,Turkstat 11
12 Imports 27% of imports are from China, Germany and Russia Top 10 import markets % of total 2018* % of total Composition of Imports (%) 1. Germany 2. Russia 3. Italy China 2. Germany 3. Russia * China USA France Italy USA France UK Iran Switzerland 9. Spain UK 9. Switzerland Capital Goods 10.South Korea South Korea 2.9 Intermediate Goods The share of first The share of first Consumption Goods (*) 12-month cumulative figures as of March Source: Turkstat
13 Tourism Tourism sector has recovered considerably. Tourism Revenues* (USD bn) Russia The Number of Tourists (million persons) Germany Iran Georgia Bulgaria ** 2017 UK Ukraine Iraq Netherlands Azerbaijan Number of Tourists 2015: 36.2 mn 2016: 25.4 mn 2017: 32.4 mn 2018*: 33.7 mn (*) 12-month cumulative figures as of February 2018 (**) 12-month cumulative figures as of March Source: CBRT, Ministry of Culture and Tourism
14 Savings & Investments Saving-investment gap of Turkey Investments and Savings (% of GDP) Saving Gap Savings Investments Source: Turkstat, Medium Term Program ( )
15 Current Account Balance Current account deficit to GDP ratio came in at 5.6% in Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) 100 Financing of CAD (12-month cumulative, billion USD) March Foreign Direct and Long Term Investments* Portfolio and Short Term Investments** -60 Current Account Deficit (*) Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury (**) Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credits and deposits in banks. Source: Turkstat, CBRT 15
16 Capital Flows Weaker foreign direct investments Portfolio Inflows (12-month cumulative, billion USD) Debt Securities Equity Securities Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (12- month cumulative, billion USD) -15 Jan.16 Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 0 Jan.16 Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan Source: CBRT
17 Monetary Policy Central Bank has implemented tight liquidity policy Annual CPI Inflation* (%) Interest Rates (%) Interest Rate Corridor One Week Repo Rate CBRT Weighted Average Cost of Funding Late Liquidity Window 6 Jan.17 May.17 Sep.17 Jan.18 May.18 (*) Latest figure as of April Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT, Datastream
18 Nominal depreciation in local currency Financial Markets Emerging market currencies fluctuated in the first quarter of the year. USD vs Local Currencies (Dec. 31, 2016 = 100) Equity Indices (Dec. 31, 2016 = 100) 130 Turkey 160 Turkey Brazil Russia Indonesia South Africa 140 Brazil Russia Indonesia South Africa Jan.17 Apr.17 Jul.17 Oct.17 Jan.18 Apr Jan.17 Apr.17 Jul.17 Oct.17 Jan.18 Apr.18 Latest figure as of May 15, Source: Datastream
19 Financial Markets Risk premiums of emerging markets Y Government Bond Yields (%) Turkey Brazil Russia Indonesia South Africa Y CDS Spreads (bps) Turkey Brazil Russia Indonesia South Africa Jan.17 Apr.17 Jul.17 Oct.17 Jan.18 Apr Jan.17 Apr.17 Jul.17 Oct.17 Jan.18 Apr.18 Latest figure as of May 15, Source: Datastream
20 Banking Sector Dynamics
21 Banking Sector Dynamics Increased intermediation activity by financing the growth of Turkish economy Diversification of funding sources by increasing access to international markets Shifting focus from growth to asset quality and stable funding structure Strengthened asset quality confirmed by low NPL ratios High capital adequacy ratio Strong growth potential 21
22 Basic Indicators Increase in foreign bank presence Public Foreign Domestic Private Number of Banks* Share in Total Assets (%) Public Foreign Domestic Private March March 2018 (*) Excluding the banks under the administration of the SDIF 22 Source: BRSA
23 6,521 7,256 8, , ,462 9,250 9,526 10, ,212 10,440 10, , , , ,617 11,903 12, ,745 12,185 11,664 11,508 11, , , , , , ,209 Basic Indicators Branch network and banking sector employment Number of Domestic Branches Number of Domestic Staff Latest figure as of March Source: BRSA
24 Basic Indicators Strong growth performance in the banking sector 57 Nominal GDP Growth (%) Loan Growth (%) Assets (bn USD) 856 Loans (bn USD) 557 Deposits (bn USD) 451 Equity (bn USD) 95 X3.7 X7.5 X3.2 X March March March March Source: BRSA, Turkstat
25 Balance Sheet Items Increasing financial intermediation role of banks Asset Composition (%) Liability Composition (%) 12 8 Other Assets Other Liabilities Cash+Banks Securities Shareholder's Equity Securities Issued 40 Loans 15 Banks Deposits March March Source: BRSA
26 Deposits Deposits have been the main funding source of the banking sector. Deposit Volume (annual % change) Share of TL Deposits in Total (%) TL Deposits -5 FX Deposits in USD Terms -10 Total Deposits (exchange rate adjusted) Latest figure as of May 4, Source: BRSA
27 Loans Loan growth losing momentum since the last quarter of Loan Volume (annual % change) Share of TL Loans in Total (%) TL Loans 5 FX Loans in USD Terms Total Loans (exchange rate adjusted) Latest figure as of May 4, Source: BRSA
28 Non-Performing Loans NPL ratio has remained at low level. Non-Performing Loan Ratio* (%) Greece S. Cyprus Portugal Italy Slovenia Ireland Bulgaria Hungary Romania Poland Spain Austria EU Average Malta France Turkey Belgium Latvia Denmark Germany Netherlands UK Norway Finland Luxembourg Sweden NPL Ratio (%, 2016) (*) Latest figure as of March Source: BRSA, EBA
29 Loans by Sectors Manufacturing industry has the highest share in total loans. Loans by Sectors (% share, March 2018) Manufacturing industry 18.0 Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, Gas and Water Resources 6.3 Transportation, Storage and Communication Retail trade Agriculture Research, Consulting, Advertising etc. Textile and textile products Tourism Main Metal Industry Source: BRSA
30 Non-Performing Loans by Sectors Non-performing loans ratio by sectors NPL Ratio (%, March 2018) Wholesale trade 4.5 Retail trade 4.1 Manufacturing industry Textile and textile products Main Metal Industry Construction Tourism Agriculture Transportation, Storage and Communication 1.7 Research, Consulting, Advertising etc. 0.9 Electricity, Gas and Water Resources Source: BRSA
31 Net FX Position of NFCs Short-term FX risks have been managed carefully by the non-financial sector Net FX Position of the Non-Financial Sector (bn USD) Feb Long Term Net FX Position Short Term Net FX Position Net FX Position 31 Source: CBRT
32 FX Assets & Liabilities of NFCs Majority of FX loans of non-financial companies were raised from domestic banks. FX Liabilities of NFCs (bn USD) Import Payables External Loans Domestic Loans Feb 2018 FX Assets of NFCs (bn USD) Direct Investment Abroad Export Receivables Deposits Feb Source: CBRT
33 Public - Private Partnership Projects A total of 197 PPI projects, worth of billion USD, have been completed / under construction since Annual Infrastructure Investment Amounts and Sectoral Distribution of Projects Contracted since 2006 (bn USD) Sectoral Distribution of Total Infrastructure Investment Amount ( , bn USD) 33 Source: CBRT
34 Short Term External Debt Stock Turkey s external financing needs in the coming 12 months February 2018 (*) (bn USD) Share (%) Central Bank General Government Banks Credits FX Deposits Bank Accounts Branches and Affiliates Abroad TRY Deposits Branches and Affiliates Abroad Other Sectors Trade Credits Other Credits Public Private Total Month Long-Term Debt Roll Over Ratio (%) Banking Sector Non-banking Sector Feb 2018 (*) External debt maturing within 1 year or less regardless of the original maturity. 34 Source: CBRT
35 Breakdown of FX Loans In line with strict regulations, FX liabilities belong mostly to large-scale corporates that generate or have potential to generate FX revenues. Firm Size Breakdown of Domestic FX Corporate Loans (% share) Breakdown of Corporate FX Loans by Amounts (% share, # of companies) Large (Rha) Medium Small Micro Not: Loans extended abroad and used via the intermediacy of domestic banks are included. Source: CBRT 35
36 Non-Deposit Sources Banks have diversified their funding sources Net FX Position* (billion USD) External Borrowings of the Banks** (outstanding amount, billion USD) Eurobonds Syndication Loans Securitization Loans 40.0 Double Investment Grade (May Sep.2016) Net On Balance Off Balance (*) Latest figure as of May 4, 2018 (**) Latest figure as of March Source: BRSA
37 Capital Adequacy Ratio Turkish banks continued to be very well capitalized Target Rate of 12% Legal Limit of 8% Capital Adequacy Ratio* (%) (*) Latest figure as of March Netherlands Ireland Latvia Croatia Bulgaria Slovenia Slovakia Germany EU Average Belgium Czech Rep. Malta France Austria Greece Hungary Poland S. Cyprus Turkey Spain Italy Portugal Capital Adequacy Ratio (%, 2016) Source: BRSA, EBA
38 Alternative Banking Channels A promising innovative future for mobile banking in Turkey Internet Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons) Mobile Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons) X2 13,125 29,541 7,227 X Q Q Q Q4 38 Source: The Banks Association of Turkey
39 Profitability Net interest margin is almost 4%. NIM* Cost / Income Ratio 5.4% 4.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3,7%** 36% 41% 44% 41% 43% 45% 46% 40% 38% 35%*** (*) Net interest income / average total assets (**) 12-month cumulative as of March 2018 (***) As of March Source: BRSA
40 Profitability Profitable banking sector... ROAA ROAE 2.6% 2.5% 23% 20% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 15% 16% 14% 12% 11% 14% 16% 17% Q Q1 40 Source: BRSA
41 Stock Exchange Performance Turkish equity market has been under downward pressure in recent weeks. Stock Exchange Performance (thousands) BIST-100 Index Banking Sector Index (right axis) Latest figure as of May 15, Source: Datastream
42 Banking Sector Comparison Despite the fast growth in the sector, penetration ratios are still low. Banking Sector s Assets in Turkey (% GDP) Banking Sector s Comparison with Euro Area (2017) (%, 2015) Assets/GDP Loans/GDP Housing Loans/GDP 6 38 EA-19 Deposits/GDP Turkey Source: BRSA, Turkstat, ECB, Eurostat
43 Banking Sector Comparison Strong and underpenetrated banking market relative to peers France Netherlands EU-28 Sweden Belgium Germany Spain Italy Portugal Greece Czech Rep. Croatia Bulgaria Turkey Hungary Slovenia Poland Slovakia Sweden Netherlands Turkey France Czech Rep. EU-28 Croatia Poland Germany Greece Italy Bulgaria Slovakia Slovenia Belgium Portugal Spain Hungary Assets / GDP 127% 127% 107% 105% 104% 99% 96% 90% 291% 283% 261% 248% 244% 235% 232% 200% Loans / Deposits 122% 119% 113% 109% 107% 106% 102% 102% 98% 98% 95% 95% 92% 88% 87% 87% 84% 374% 351% 169% France Netherlands Sweden EU-28 Germany Spain Italy Belgium Portugal Greece Croatia Czech Rep. Bulgaria Slovenia Turkey Poland Slovakia Hungary France Spain Netherlands Portugal Belgium Italy EU-28 Germany Greece Sweden Croatia Czech Rep. Bulgaria Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Poland Turkey Loans / GDP 91% 84% 72% 67% 66% 65% 63% 55% Deposits / GDP 99% 86% 77% 76% 73% 67% 66% 64% 56% 167% 159% 149% 146% 145% 133% 131% 119% 121% 206% 198% 182% 169% 162% 151% 150% 149% 148% 147% As of Source: BRSA, EBF
44 Future Prospects
45 Future Prospects inherited assets and achievements provide sufficient cushion for Turkey geographical location young population dynamic private sector sound fiscal picture strong banking sector comprehensive structural reform agenda high external financing needs geopolitical tensions main challenges should be addressed carefully 45
46 Structural Reform Agenda The transformation programs should be implemented by reprioritizing them. 1. Productivity growth in production 2. Reducing dependence on imports 14. Energy efficiency improvement 15. Effective use of water in agriculture 3. Increasing domestic savings at the national level 16. Structural transformation in healthcare industries and preventing wastefulness 17. Improvement in health tourism 4. Istanbul international financial center 18. Transition from transportation to logistics 5. Rationalization of public expenditures 19. Development of basic and occupational skills 6. Raising the quality of public revenue 20. Attracting qualified human resources from 7. Improving the business and investment climate abroad 8. Improving the effectiveness of the labor market 21. Healthy life and mobility 9. Reducing the informal economy 22. Preserving the family and dynamic population 10. Development of the statistical information infrastructure 11. Commercialization of priority technology areas 12. Technology development and local production through better public procurement 13. Energy generation based on local resources structure 23. Institutional capacity development at the local level 24. Urban redevelopment program to increase competitiveness and social cohesion 25. Improving international cooperation infrastructure for development 46 Source: Ministry of Development
47 ISBANK Forecasts 2017 (R) 2018 Real GDP Growth (%) Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) CPI (%) Banking Sector Total Assets (% of GDP) R: Realization 47
48 Our reports are available on our website LEGAL NOTICE This report has been prepared by Türkiye İş Bankası A.Ş. economists and analysts by using the information from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, solely for information purposes; and they are not intended to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or the provision of an offer to provide investment services. The views, opinions and analyses expressed do not represent the official standing of Türkiye İş Bankası A.Ş. and are personal views and opinions of the analysts and economists who prepare the report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. All information contained in this report is subject to change without notice, Türkiye İş Bankası A,Ş, accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is copyright-protected. Reproducing, publishing and/or distributing this report in whole or in part is therefore prohibited. All rights reserved.
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
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