CMP: INR224 TP: INR268 (+20%) Buy

Transcription

1 31 January QFY18 Results Update Sector: Automobiles Exide Industries BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 35,965 11,028 Bloomberg EXID IN Equity Shares (m) 850 M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) / Week Range (INR) 250/195 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -5/-11/-17 Avg Val, INRm Free float (%) 54.0 Financials & Valuations (INR b) Y/E Mar 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (INR) Gr. (%) BV/Sh (INR) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Estimate change TP change Rating change CMP: INR224 TP: INR268 (+20%) Buy Above-estimate; healthy revenue growth drives profitability Volume growth in automotive, UPS, telecom and infra segments drives revenue: Net sales grew 32.7% YoY to INR22.8b (est. of INR19.9), driven by growth in automotive, UPS, telecom and infrastructure batteries. Our channel check suggests the company took cumulative price increase of ~3% during the quarter, which also aided revenue growth. Spot lead price increased 7.7% QoQ (+11.8% YoY) to INR161.2 per kg. In January 2018, lead price has increased 7.8% YoY (up 2% from 2QFY18). EBITDA margin at 10-quarter low due to significant lead inflation: EBITDA margin contracted 90bp YoY (-10bp QoQ) to 12.4% (est. of 12%), largely led by lead inflation and product mix impact (higher proportion of OE sales in automotive segment). Other income declined 70.4% YoY/20.3% QoQ to INR0.11b (est. of INR0.25b). Despite a 40% YoY decline in other income to INR0.1b (est. of INR0.25b) and higher depreciation of INR0.63b (est. of INR0.6b), PAT grew 1.8% YoY (-5.4% QoQ) to INR1.54b (est. of INR1.35b). Management indicated that growth momentum in automotive and motorcycle batteries was good, while demand for telecom, UPS and other infrastructure segments was also good. EXID is focusing on cost-control initiatives and technology upgradation to improve profitability. Valuation and view: We raise FY19E EPS by 4.6%, while FY20E EPS remains unchanged. We keep EBITDA margin estimate unchanged at 13.9% for FY19 and 14% for FY20. We factor in revenue/ebitda/pat CAGR of 14.5%/13.8%/12.6%. The stock trades at 22x FY19E and 19.4x FY20E adj. for insurance value of ~INR39/share. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR268 (valuing core business at 20x Dec-19E EPS, at a 20% discount to 25x target multiple for AMRJ + insurance business value). S/A Quarterly Performance Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY18 (INR Million) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE 3QE Var (%) Net Sales 20,103 19,253 17,151 19,717 21,029 23,713 22,765 23,805 76,203 91,313 19, Growth YoY (%) RM(%) bp Employee cost (%) bp Other Exp(%) bp EBITDA 3,142 2,891 2,273 2,578 3,243 2,959 2,826 3,115 10,919 12,143 2, EBITDA Margin(%) bp Change (%) Non-Operating Income Interest Depreciation ,063 2, PBT after EO Exp 2,784 2,611 2,079 2,289 2,796 2,061 2,302 2,592 9,725 9,751 2, Tax ,821 3, Effective Tax Rate (%) bp Adj. PAT 1,961 1,818 1,515 1,648 1,890 1,630 1,543 1,745 6,904 6,813 1, Change (%) Jinesh Gandhi (Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); Deep A Shah (Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); Suneeta Kamath (Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

2 Exhibit 1: Growth in automotive, UPS, telecom and infra segments drives growth Exhibit 2: Gross margins improve QoQ but deteriorate YoY due to lead price inflation Net sales (INR mn) Growth (%) (RHS) Gross margin (%) 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY Exhibit 3: Other expenses increase 110bp QoQ Other exp. (%) Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin remain flat QoQ EBITDA margin (%) 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY Exhibit 5: Hardening lead prices pose challenge for battery industry; increased QoQ INR/tonne 175, , , , , ,000 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Source: Bloomberg 31 January

3 Valuation and view Industry structure remains duopoly, EXIDE is leader: While the industry structure remains largely duopoly, Exide is the largest lead acid battery manufacturer in India with leadership in the auto OEM and replacement segment. Over FY13-17, EXIDE clocked a CAGR of 5.9% and 7.3% in net sales and PAT, respectively, lower than estimates of its competitor AMRJ (15.9% and 14.3% CAGR in net sales and PAT, respectively). Exide growth over the last few years has remained subdued compared to its competitor AMRJ due to the latter's technological innovations (first to introduce maintenance-free, factory charged, extended warranty batteries), and unique distribution model (franchisee based) supported with operational efficiency-led competitive pricing. Exide to defend no.1 position: EXIDE is expected to improve its market share, as economic recovery led demand is expected to come in from the auto OEM and industrial segments. Early improvement signs are visible in the 4W replacement segment, driven by a sharp improvement in sales and service processes. Besides pick-up in 2-wheeler sales on the back of normal monsoon is also likely to aid OEM demand and replacement sales. This, in turn, should lead to better capacity utilization and margins. Management initiatives to revive market share and margins visible: Since Mr Chatterjee took over as MD & CEO of Exide since May 2016, EXID has taken several initiatives at market level and product quality level, which are now reflecting in market share recovery, product quality improvement and recovery in margins. We believe EXID is on track to reduce performance gap vis-à-vis peers like AMRJ. Valuation view: We raise FY19E EPS by 4.6%, while FY20E EPS remains unchanged. We keep EBITDA margin estimate unchanged at 13.9% for FY19 and 14% for FY20. We factor in revenue/ebitda/pat CAGR of 14.5%/13.8%/12.6%. The stock trades at 22x FY19E and 19.4x FY20E adj. for insurance value of ~INR39/share. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR268 (valuing core business at 20x Dec-19E EPS, at a 20% discount to 25x target multiple for AMRJ + insurance business value). Exhibit 6: Revised estimates (INR m) FY19E FY20E Rev Old Chg (%) Rev Old Chg (%) Net Sales 104, , , , EBITDA Margin (%) bp bp PAT 8,688 8, ,874 9, EPS (Rs) Source: MOSL 31 January

4 Exhibit 7: Valuations P/E and P/B trading band Jan-08 P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x) Min (x) +1SD -1SD Apr-09 Jul-10 Oct-11 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan-08 P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) Min (x) +1SD -1SD Apr-09 Jul-10 Oct-11 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan-18 Exhibit 8: Comparative valuations CMP Rating TP P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div Yield (%) EPS CAGR (%) (INR)* (INR) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY18-20E Auto OEM's Bajaj Auto 3,339 Buy 4, Hero MotoCorp 3,692 Neutral 3, TVS Motor 695 Neutral M&M 763 Buy Maruti Suzuki 9,514 Buy 10, Tata Motors 399 Buy Ashok Leyland 126 Buy Eicher Motors 26,949 Buy 34, Auto Ancillaries Bharat Forge 717 Buy Exide Industries 224 Buy Amara Raja Batteries 808 Buy BOSCH 19,344 Neutral 20, Endurance Tech 1,196 Buy 1, Motherson Sumi 365 Buy Mahindra CIE 222 Buy Source: MOSL 31 January

5 Exide Ind. Story in Charts: 13% EPS CAGR over FY17-20E Exhibit 9: Demand recovery to drive revenue growth Net sales (INR m) Growth (%) Exhibit 10: Operating leverage to drive margin improvement EBITDA (INR m) EBITDA margins (%) ,714 59,707 68,714 68,622 76,378 91, , ,558 7,841 8,210 9,135 10,246 10,919 12,143 14,602 16,070 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 11: Expect PAT CAGR of 12.6% over FY17-20E PAT (INR m) Growth (%) Exhibit 12: Strong FCF driven by healthy CFO CFO (INR m) Capex (INR m) FCF (INR m) ,476 2,133 3,245 1,115 13,398 1,938 4,311 1,239 8,829 1,829 10,505 6,005 12,317 7,817 5,228 4,871 5,459 6,242 6,904 6,813 8,688 9,874 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E -1,346-3,050-3,948-4,158-4,500-2,000-2,000 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 13: Return ratios to improve RoCE (%) RoE (%) Exhibit 14: Div. Yield and Div. Payout (%) Div. Yield Payout FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E 31 January

6 Financials and Valuations Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Gross Sales 68,622 67,548 76,468 77,276 85, , , ,910 Less: Excise 7,908 7,905 7,812 8,799 9,703 11,597 13,333 14,527 Net Sales 60,714 59,642 68,655 68,477 76,203 91, , ,383 Change (%) Operating Other Income Total Income 60,714 59,707 68,714 68,622 76,378 91, , ,558 Change (%) Total Expenditure 52,873 51,497 59,579 58,376 65,459 79,345 90,555 98,488 EBITDA 7,841 8,210 9,135 10,246 10,919 12,143 14,602 16,071 EBITDA Margins (%) Change (%) Depreciation 1,135 1,256 1,395 1,579 2,063 2,453 2,622 2,832 EBIT 6,706 6,954 7,740 8,666 8,856 9,690 11,979 13,239 Interest & Finance Charges Other Income ,132 Non-recurring Exp/(Inc) Forex Gain / (Loss) PBT 7,423 7,231 7,985 9,080 9,725 9,751 12,776 14,310 Tax 2,195 2,360 2,526 2,837 2,821 3,218 4,088 4,436 Effective Rate (%) Rep. PAT 5,228 4,871 5,459 6,242 6,904 6,533 8,688 9,874 Change (%) % of Net Sales Adj. PAT 5,228 4,871 5,459 6,242 6,904 6,813 8,688 9,874 Change (%) Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Share Capital Reserves 33,386 36,465 39,696 44,264 48,786 53,131 59,631 66,295 Net Worth 34,236 37,315 40,546 45,114 49,636 53,981 60,481 67,145 Loans ,025 1,702 1,702 1,702 1,702 Deferred Tax Liability 977 1,051 1,259 1,270 1,552 1,844 2,228 2,657 Capital Employed 35,284 38,423 41,981 47,409 52,890 57,528 64,411 71,505 Application of Funds Gross Fixed Assets 19,002 20,145 22,261 14,206 19,058 23,972 25,972 27,972 Less: Depreciation 9,058 10,164 11,359 1,551 3,598 6,051 8,673 11,505 Net Fixed Assets 9,944 9,980 10,902 12,654 15,460 17,921 17,299 16,467 Capital WIP ,002 1,858 1,414 1,000 1,000 1,000 Investments 16,401 19,670 18,957 26,978 26,755 29,255 31,755 34,255 Curr.Assets, L & Adv. 18,550 19,406 23,166 20,680 24,128 27,246 34,603 42,980 Inventory 11,671 11,856 15,228 11,335 15,274 17,762 20,133 22,250 Sundry Debtors 5,092 5,166 5,550 6,039 6,217 6,781 7,571 8,983 Cash & Bank Balances 748 1, ,534 8,081 Loans & Advances 998 1,173 2, Other Current Assets ,340 2,207 2,645 3,041 3,313 Current Liab. & Prov. 10,200 11,143 12,046 14,762 14,866 17,893 20,244 23,197 Sundry Creditors 5,604 6,530 6,479 7,449 7,679 9,201 10,578 11,526 Other Liabilities 2,625 2,485 2,740 4,184 4,541 5,504 6,328 6,894 Provisions 1,971 2,129 2,827 3,129 2,647 3,189 3,338 4,776 Net Current Assets 8,351 8,263 11,121 5,918 9,262 9,353 14,358 19,784 Application of Funds 35,284 38,423 41,980 47,409 52,890 57,528 64,412 71,505 E: MOSL Estimates 31 January

7 Financials and Valuations Ratios Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS EPS Growth (%) Book Value per Share DPS Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) % Valuation (x) P/E Cash P/E EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Price to Book Value Dividend Yield (%) Profitability Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Turnover Ratios Debtors (Days) Inventory (Days) Creditors (Days) Working Capital (Days) Gross Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Leverage Ratio Debt/Equity (x) (INR Cash Flow Statement Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E OP/(Loss) before Tax 7,423 7,238 7,985 9,019 9,757 9,690 11,979 13,238 Interest/Dividends Received ,132 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,135 1,256 1,395 1,579 2,063 2,453 2,622 2,832 Direct Taxes Paid -1,950-2,258-2,475-2,684-2,812-2,925-3,705-4,007 (Inc)/Dec in Working Capital -2, ,457 5,783-3, , CF from Oper. Activity 3,597 6,476 3,245 13,398 4,311 8,829 10,505 12,317 CF after EO Items 3,597 6,476 3,245 13,398 4,311 8,829 10,505 12,318 (Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP -1,587-1,346-3,050-3,948-4,158-4,500-2,000-2,000 Free Cash Flow 2,010 5, , ,329 8,505 10,317 (Pur)/Sale of Invest , ,512 1,086-2,500-2,500-2,500 CF from Inv. Activity -1,801-4,343-2,130-11,460-3,072-7,000-4,500-4,500 Interest Rec./(Paid) Dividends Paid -1,578-1,661-2,180-2,334-2,417-2,188-2,188-3,210 CF from Fin. Activity -1,625-1,675-2,016-1,497-1,782-2,248-2,248-3,270 Inc/(Dec) in Cash ,757 4,548 Add: Beginning Balance , ,534 Closing Balance 748 1, ,534 8, January

8 Corporate profile Company description Exide Industries (EXIDE) is the largest lead acid battery manufacturer in India with market leadership in auto OEM and replacement segment. Exide derives ~60% of revenues from auto segment, while balance comprises industrial revenues. The company has also recently entered into Home UPS/Inverter segment. Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased Source: MOSL/Bloomberg Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%) Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16 Promoter DII FII Others Note: FII Includes depository receipts Source: Capitaline Exhibit 3: Top holders Holder Name % Holding Hathway Investments ltd 4.3 Government Pension fund global 3.7 The New India Assurance Company Limited 1.9 Life insurance Corporation of India 1.8 ICICI Prudential value discovery fund 1.5 Source: Capitaline Exhibit 4: Top management Name Designation Bharat Shah Chairman R B Raheja Vice Chairman & Non executive G Chatterjee Managing Director & CEO A K Mukherjee Director (Finance) & CFO Jitendra Kumar Company Secretary Exhibit 5: Directors Name Mona N Desai Vijay Aggarwal Arun Mittal Name Sudhir Chand Nawshir H Mirza Subir Chakraborty Source: Capitaline *Independent Exhibit 6: Auditors Name A K Labh & Co B S R & Co LLP S R Batliboi & Co LLP Shome & Banerjee Type Secretarial Audit Statutory Statutory Cost Auditor Source: Capitaline Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS (INR) MOSL forecast Consensus forecast Variation (%) FY FY FY Source: Bloomberg 31 January

9 N O T E S 31 January

10 Explanation of Investment Rating Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month) BUY >=15% SELL < - 10% NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15% UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation *In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend. Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). Exide Industries Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. 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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai ; Tel No.: ; Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai Tel No: Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.: Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP ; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL ; Research Analyst: INH AMFI: ARN Investment Adviser: INA Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP ) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP ) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products 31 January