CMP: INR840 TP: INR941 (+12%) Neutral TRAI boost to RJio; increasing target price

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1 20 September 2017 Update Sector: Oil & Gas Reliance Industries BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 32,402 10,148 Stock Info Bloomberg RIL IN Equity Shares (m) Week Range (INR) 861 / 466 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 4/22/42 M.Cap. (INR b) M.Cap. (USD b) Avg Val, INRm 12,124 Free float (%) 55.0 Financials Snapshot (INR b) Y/E March E 2019E Net Sales 2,420 3,237 3,723 EBITDA Net Profit EPS (INR) EPS Gr. (%) BV/Sh. (INR) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Shareholding pattern (%) As On Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16 Promoter DII FII Others FII Includes depository receipts CMP: INR840 TP: INR941 (+12%) Neutral TRAI boost to RJio; increasing target price The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has reduced the interconnect usage charge (IUC) from 14p/min to 6p/min with effect from 1 st October This would be further reduced to zero from 1 st January ~40% reduction in RJio s access cost would result in the company s EBITDA increasing by 43%/31% in FY19/20. We also roll over our valuation to September 2018, and increase our target price on Reliance Industries (RIL) from INR750 to INR950, implying a 13% upside. Revising RJio s EBITDA by 43%/30% for FY19/20E led by IUC savings Based on the reduction in the IUC rate, RJio s access cost is revised down by ~INR30b (40%) to INR44b/49b for FY19/20E. Subsequently, we have revised up our EBITDA estimates for FY19/20E by 43%/31% to INR91b/INR130b. Our subscriber and ARPU estimates for FY19/20E remains intact at 132m/156m and INR215/INR229, respectively. Zero IUC by 2020 may not alter the scenario significantly. We believe that, by 2020, a significant proportion (70-75%) of subscribers would be data subscribers. In the event of complimentary voice offerings, bundled (data and voice) price plans should protect incumbents ARPUs. RJio could choose market share over profitability The key question is whether RJio will pass on the benefits to feature phone subscribers to chase market share or will focus on enhancing profitability. RJio s current active subscriber market share stands at 9.6%. We believe RJio will continue tapering freebies for smartphone subscribers, even as it may extend discounts to feature phone subscribers to accelerate market share growth. Based on 43%/31% increase in EBITDA for FY19/20E, we increase our DCFbased TP to INR190/share (ex. bonus; prior: INR130/share). Our DCF factors in 12% WACC and 2% terminal growth. Stock Performance (1-year) Reliance Inds. Sensex - Rebased Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Increasing valuation multiples; maintaining Neutral We have increased the refining and marketing multiples from 6x to 7x, driven largely by the better performance exhibited by the company in its refining segment in an adverse environment, due to its better risk and yield/crude management. Key triggers: (i) how the company further unfolds its strategy in RJio and (ii) how other core expansions take shape. The stock trades at 12.2x standalone FY19E P/E and 10.4x standalone FY19E EV/EBITDA. We roll over to September 2018, and increase our target price on RIL from INR750 to INR941, implying a 12% upside. Maintain Neutral. Swarnendu Bhushan Research Analyst (Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); Abhinil Dahiwale Research Analyst (Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

2 Exhibit 1: RIL: Key assumptions Key Metrics FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Refining Capacity (mmt) Production (mmt) Capacity Utilization (%) 107% 109% 110% 110% 110% 112% 113% 113% 113% 113% GRM (USD/bbl) Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) RIL GRM E&P Gas Production (mmscmd) Oil Production (kbd) Pricing Brent Oil (USD/bbl) Wellhead Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) Exhibit 2: RIL: Segmental EBIT break-up (INRb) Segmental EBTI (INRb) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Refining Petchem E&P Total Segmental EBIT share (%) Refining 36% 40% 55% 55% 60% 69% 66% 64% 61% 60% Petrochemicals 37% 38% 32% 36% 33% 30% 33% 34% 37% 39% E&P 26% 22% 13% 8% 6% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Exhibit 3: RIL: Sum of the parts valuation (Sep-18 TP) Core business Value Remarks/Methodology Refining 347 7x FY19 EBITDA Petchem 305 7x FY19 EBITDA E&P 33 KG D6 5 DCF PMT 6 DCF NEC-25 2 USD 5/boe CBM 4 USD 5/boe Shale (23) 7x EV/EBITDA FY19 KG basin exploratory upside 39 USD 5/boe Investments RGTIL 3 Book value Reliance Retail 49.7x FY19 sales RJio 190 As per our telecom analyst Total 928 Net debt / (cash) (13) Target price September

3 Reilance Jio: Story in charts Exhibit 4: Subscriber market share to get a fillip Exhibit 5: Data traffic to touch new highs Subsrciber base (m) Subscriber Market Share (%) Data Traffic (b Mb) 0.12 Data realizations (INR/MB) ,111 3,428 4,399 5,443 6,614 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E Exhibit 6: Subscribers (mn) across India 20 September

4 Reliance Industries: Story in charts Exhibit 7: RIL s earnings growth momentum on a recovery track 24.9 (1.2) PAT (INRb) PAT - YoY (%) Exhibit 8: Also, return ratios are expected to gradually recover RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 9: Refinery throughput to remain at 70mmt in FY18/19; GRM to stabilize Refinery Thr' put (mmt) RIL GRM (USD/bbl) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 10: Expect petchem EBITDA contribution to increase, going forward, followed by refining Refining Petchem E&P Total FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E 20 September

5 Reliance Industries: Story in charts Exhibit 11: Segmental EBIT break-up (%) - E&P a dampener, refining and petchem outshine Refining Petrochemicals E&P Exhibit 12: Expect E&P production to decline; though new policy can boost long-term production (mmscmd) Gas Production (mmscmd) FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 13: RIL refining margins improved in FY16 (USD/bbl) after staying flat in recent years Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) RIL GRM Exhibit 14: We expect petchem EBITDA to improve in FY18/19 Petchem EBITDA (INRb) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 15: Dividend payout stabilized in recent years (%) Dividend payout (%) 20 Exhibit 16: RIL 1-year forward P/E chart (last 10 years) P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x) 38.0 Min (x) +1SD -1SD FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Sep-07 Dec-08 Mar-10 Jun-11 Sep-12 Dec-13 Mar-15 Jun-16 Sep September

6 Reilance Jio - Financials and Valuations Consolidated - Income Statement (INR m) Total Income from Operations , , ,039 Change (%) NA ,733, Tower Rental Cost , , ,707 Spectrum and License Costs ,821 43,524 52,364 Access and Roaming Charge ,475 51,459 58,637 Employees Cost ,820 19,246 21,825 Subscriber Acquisition/Servicing Costs ,599 63,381 67,488 Other Expenses ,000 22,000 20,000 Total Expenditure , , ,021 % of Sales 48, , , EBITDA ,139 91, ,018 Margin (%) Depreciation , , ,274 EBIT ,846-11,794 28,744 Int. and Finance Charges , , ,559 Other Income ,075 3,957 4,760 PBT bef. EO Exp , ,397-76,055 EO Items PBT after EO Exp , ,397-76,055 Total Tax Tax Rate (%) Minority Interest Reported PAT , ,397-76,055 Adjusted PAT , ,397-76,055 Change (%) NA , Margin (%) -57, , , Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR m) Equity Share Capital 301, , , , , ,000 Total Reserves ,644 35,314-76, ,138 Net Worth 300, , , , , ,862 Total Loans 296, ,078 1,244,490 1,244,490 1,344,490 1,394,490 Capital Employed 597, ,581 1,953,134 1,929,803 1,918,407 1,892,352 Gross Block 10,256 11,825 13,606 2,048,000 2,096,000 2,120,000 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,398 2,428 3, , , ,097 Net Fixed Assets 8,858 9,397 9,744 1,939,431 1,884,177 1,806,903 Capital WIP 722,978 1,183,499 1,779, Total Investments 7,924 8,333 8,731 8,731 8,731 8,731 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 80, , ,634 82, , ,992 Account Receivables ,052 32,521 39,126 Cash and Bank Balance , , ,460 Loans and Advances 80, , ,366 31,120 59,350 71,406 Curr. Liability & Prov. 222, ,685 55, , , ,274 Account Payables ,184 37,505 42,660 Other Current Liabilities 222, ,286 55,067 51,867 98, ,010 Provisions ,747 39,567 47,604 Net Current Assets -142, , ,883-18,359 25,499 76,718 Appl. of Funds 597, ,581 1,953,134 1,929,803 1,918,406 1,892, September

7 Reilance Jio - Financials and Valuations Ratios Basic (INR) EPS* Cash EPS BV/Share DPS Payout (%) Return Ratios (%) RoE NA RoCE NA RoIC NA Working Capital Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Asset Turnover (x) Debtor (Days) Creditor (Days) Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio Interest Cover Ratio Net Debt/Equity *Based on RJio s number of shares Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR m) OP/(Loss) before Tax , ,397-76,055 Depreciation , , ,274 Interest & Finance Charges ,484 99, ,799 Direct Taxes Paid (Inc)/Dec in WC -27,827-43,454-33, ,241 31,492 14,623 CF from Operations -28,009-43,633-34, , , ,641 Others CF from Operating incl EO -28,017-43,659-34, , , ,641 (Inc)/Dec in FA -95, , , ,618-48,000-24,000 Free Cash Flow -123, , ,456-68,516 74, ,641 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -5, Others ,075 3,957 4,760 CF from Investments -100, , , ,544-44,043-19,240 Issue of Shares 70, , , Inc/(Dec) in Debt 71, , , ,000 50,000 Interest Paid -13,453-32,740-58,188-99, , ,559 Dividend Paid Others CF from Fin. Activity 128, , , ,441-3,559-59,559 Inc/Dec of Cash ,999 75,350 65,843 Opening Balance , ,617 Closing Balance , , , September

8 Reilance Industries - Financials and Valuations Standalone - Income Statement (INR m) Total Income from Operations 3,290,760 2,331,580 2,420,250 3,236,723 3,723,331 3,827,661 Change (%) Purchases 90,770 84,120 3,220 12, Manufacturing and Other Expenses 2,883,970 1,853,990 1,984,470 2,700,792 3,158,186 3,255,739 Total Expenditure 2,974,740 1,938,110 1,987,690 2,713,212 3,158,186 3,255,739 % of Sales EBITDA 316, , , , , ,921 Margin (%) Depreciation 84,880 85,900 84, , , ,246 EBIT 231, , , , , ,675 Int. and Finance Charges 23,670 25,620 27,230 37,418 30,375 31,500 Other Income 87,210 78,210 87,090 94, , ,563 PBT bef. EO Exp. 294, , , , , ,738 EO Items PBT after EO Exp. 294, , , , , ,738 Total Tax 67,490 86,320 93, , , ,122 Tax Rate (%) Reported PAT 227, , , , , ,616 Adjusted PAT 227, , , , , ,616 Change (%) Margin (%) Standalone - Balance Sheet (INR m) Equity Share Capital 32,360 32,400 32,510 65,020 65,020 65,020 Eq. Share Warrants & App. Money Total Reserves 2,129,230 2,507,580 2,850,620 3,132,394 3,481,968 3,861,593 Net Worth 2,161,760 2,539,980 2,883,130 3,197,414 3,546,988 3,926,613 Total Loans 976, ,200 1,013, , , ,000 Deferred Tax Liabilities 126, , , , , ,660 Capital Employed 3,264,700 3,700,650 4,143,820 4,095,074 4,494,648 4,874,273 Gross Block 2,360,620 2,622,320 2,584,480 3,557,650 3,707,650 3,757,650 Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,214,990 1,146,890 1,053,180 1,362,651 1,482,529 1,620,775 Net Fixed Assets 1,145,630 1,475,430 1,531,300 2,194,999 2,225,121 2,136,875 Capital WIP 757,530 1,109,050 1,341, , , ,868 Total Investments 1,125,730 1,572,500 1,924,500 1,924,500 1,924,500 1,924,500 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 948, , ,770 1,092,010 1,835,825 2,367,472 Inventory 365, , , , , ,824 Account Receivables 46,610 34,950 54,720 70,942 81,607 83,894 Cash and Bank Balance 115,710 68,920 17, ,065 1,077,030 1,586,838 Loans and Advances 421, , , , , ,916 Curr. Liability & Prov. 713,150 1,116,090 1,323,640 1,852,303 2,126,667 2,190,441 Account Payables 650,570 1,093,730 1,289,780 1,773,547 2,040,181 2,097,348 Provisions 62,580 22,360 33,860 78,756 86,486 93,093 Net Current Assets 235, , , , , ,030 Appl. of Funds 3,264,700 3,700,650 4,143,820 4,095,074 4,494,648 4,874,273 E: MOSL Estimates 20 September

9 Reilance Industries - Financials and Valuations Ratios Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS BV/Share DPS Payout (%) Valuation (x) P/E Cash P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) FCF per share Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Working Capital Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (Days) Debtor (Days) Creditor (Days) Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio Interest Cover Ratio Net Debt/Equity Standalone - Cash Flow Statement (INR m) OP/(Loss) before Tax 294, , , , , ,738 Depreciation 84,880 85,900 84, , , ,246 Direct Taxes Paid -67,490-86,320-93, , , ,122 (Inc)/Dec in WC 174, , , , ,514 41,936 CF from Operations 486, , , , , ,798 Others 4, ,700 10, CF from Operating incl EO 491,140 1,031, , , , ,798 (Inc)/Dec in FA -476, , , ,500-50,000-50,000 Free Cash Flow 14, , , , , ,798 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -231, , , CF from Investments -707,930-1,213, , ,500-50,000-50,000 Issue of Shares ,380 70, Inc/(Dec) in Debt 36,600 31,790 89, ,030 50,000 0 Dividend Paid -35,590-37,000-41,738-52,976-58,925-63,991 CF from Fin. Activity , , ,006-8,925-63,991 Inc/Dec of Cash -216,530-46,790-51, , , ,808 Opening Balance 332, ,710 68,920 17, ,065 1,077,030 Closing Balance 115,710 68,920 17, ,065 1,077,030 1,586, September

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