CMP: INR272 TP: INR361(+33%) Buy Production ramp-up encouraging

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1 9 February 2018 Update Sector: Metals Jindal Steel & Power BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 34,006 10,455 CMP: INR272 TP: INR361(+33%) Buy Production ramp-up encouraging Volume growth at inflection; maintain Buy Stock Info Bloomberg JSP IN Equity Shares (m) Week Range (INR) 294 / 86 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 11/105/177 M.Cap. (INR b) M.Cap. (USD b) 3.7 Avg Val, INRm Free float (%) 38.0 Financials Snapshot (INR b) Y/E Mar 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (INR) Gr. (%) BV/Sh (INR) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Shareholding pattern (%) As On Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16 Promoter DII FII Others FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) Jindal Steel Sensex - Rebased Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 We visited Jindal Steel and Power (JSP) s Angul, Raigarh and Tamnar facilities. Key takeaways from our visit: Angul crude steel production ramping up well: The newly-commissioned blast oxygen furnace (BOF) is ramping up well. Hot metal from the blast furnace (BF) is transferred to the BOF through torpedoes. The BOF is operating at 45 minutes per batch, which will be gradually optimized to minutes per batch. It has already touched a peak of 27 heats per day (against capacity of at optimized rate). Crude steel production was 165kt in January, and is likely to increase to 280kt in February, with a target of 400ktpm by May By this time, the second 2.5mtpa billet caster will have commissioned. This will take told casting capacity from 3.7mtpa to 6.2mtpa and pave the way for full ramp-up of steel-making capacity. Bottlenecks will shift to rolling capacity at Angul. However, excess semis will be rolled in Patratu site in Jharkhand. Raigarh production rate improving; awaiting approval from Indian Railways: Crude steel production was ~280kt in January. A similar production is expected in February, despite fewer days. A total production of 810kt is expected in 4QFY18. Rail production is about 200kt against nameplate capacity of 600kt. DFCC and Iran are key orders. JSP is expecting approval from Indian Railways. If successful, another 140kt of order is possible. The outlook for plate business is also improving with increasing activity in gas pipeline orders in India. Tamnar very competitive fuel cost under PPAs: The 2x250MW EUP-1 in merchant and 2x600MW in EUP-2 in PPA/merchant was operating at full capacity (~50% utilization on the 3,400MW capacity). In EUP-2, it was running 900MW under long-term PPAs, while the remaining was sold in merchant market (IEX/DEEP). The fuel cost under PPAs is very competitive at INR /kWh. Coal availability under FSA is good. E-auction coal availability remains an issue, but it is gradually improving. Prices under e-auction are high, as Coal India has stopped special e-auction for power sector. Coal supply quality under FSA has improved and grade slippage is no longer an issue. Volume growth at inflection; maintain Buy: Looking at the progress at Angul and Raigarh, we believe our volume estimates of 1.2mt for 4QFY18 (v/s 970kt in 3Q) and 5.8mt (v/s 3.8mt in FY18) for FY19 appear comfortable. Steel production is at inflection we expect 29% CAGR to 6.4mt over FY Strong long product prices in India, operating leverage, and timely volume growth augur well for earnings. Nearly 25% of raw material cost is insulated from input price risk due to captive iron ore mines and coal linkage. We remain positive on the stock Buy with a target price of INR361 (Exhibit 6). Sanjay Jain Research analyst (SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Dhruv Muchhal Research analyst (Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

2 The BOF commissioned in December has reached peak of 27 heats per day against optimum capacity of 36-41heats per day Exhibit 1: BOF at Angul in operation Two coke oven batteries of ~2mt are operating at Angul; third is under construction Exhibit 2: Coke oven batteries at Angul 9 February

3 Exhibit 3: Well established rail infrastructure at Angul to handle higher volumes Exhibit 4: Raigarh rail mill in operation 9 February

4 Exhibit 5: Income statement Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net sales 201, , , , , ,092 Steel business (incl. CPP) 169, , , , , ,232 Standalone 140, , , , , ,429 Steel sales (kt) 2,930 3,380 3,350 3,802 5,794 6,373 Pellet sales (kt) ,910 3,040 2,750 2,750 Oman 31,243 26,439 30,810 45,329 45,360 45,360 HBI (kt) production 1,420 1,509 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 Steel (kt) sales 534 1,050 1,330 1,640 1,650 1,650 Wollongong (GNM) 466 1,065 2,039 1,672 2,153 2,368 Coking coal (kt) Others -3, ,713 11,212-2,925-2,925 Jindal power 32,280 30,150 31,190 38,769 44,317 45,860 Sales (Mkwh) 8,969 8,730 8,442 11,454 12,164 12,639 EBITDA 54,598 34,410 46,613 63,973 94, ,575 Steel business (incl. CPP) 37,618 27,810 36,133 49,058 72,413 78,213 (a) Standalone 37,057 24,392 28,877 38,268 60,952 66,456 EBITDA/t of steel 12,646 7,216 8,620 10,065 10,521 10,428 (b) Global Venture 561 3,419 7,255 10,790 11,460 11, Oman 7,235 4,057 6,139 11,556 11,595 11,521 EBITDA/t of HBI 5,096 2,688 4,093 7,704 7,730 7, Wollongong (GNM) -2, , ,145 1,260 EBITDA/t of coal Others -3, ,600-1,280-1,024 Jindal power 16,980 6,600 10,480 14,915 22,550 22,362 EBITDA (INR/kwh) Depn. & Amortization 27,328 28,194 39,490 41,087 47,462 48,994 EBIT 27,270 6,216 7,122 22,887 47,501 51,580 Net Interest 25,837 32,808 34,240 37,552 39,039 38,251 Other income 2,256 2, PBT before EO 3,689-24,391-26,706-14,640 8,462 13,330 Adjusted PAT 6,335-16,662-19,128-10,532 6,647 10,863 Cash Profit 32,782 4,769 15,336 27,538 54,109 59,857 Exhibit 6: Target price calculation Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Steel Business A. EBITDA 37,618 27,810 36,133 49,058 72,413 78,213 B. Target EV/EBITDA(x) C. EV (AxB) 234, , , ,386 Jindal Power (JPL) D. PV of JPL's FCFF 250, , , ,096 Consolidated EBITDA 54,598 34,410 46,613 63,973 94, ,575 E. Enterprise Value (C+D) 485, , , ,481 F. Net Debt 443, , , , , ,702 G. CWIP 90, ,266 97,162 52,162 17,162 12,162 H. Discount on CWIP (%) Equity Value (E-F+G*(1-H%)) 118, , ,941 Target price (INR/share) February

5 Financials and Valuations Income Statement (Consolidated) (INR Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Net sales 198, , , , , , , ,092 Change (%) Total Expenses 132, , , , , , , ,517 EBITDA 65,685 57,764 54,598 34,410 46,613 63,973 94, ,575 % of Net Sales Depn. & Amortization 15,392 18,292 27,328 28,194 39,490 41,087 47,462 48,994 EBIT 50,293 39,472 27,270 6,216 7,122 22,887 47,501 51,580 Net Interest 7,582 15,008 25,837 32,808 34,240 37,552 39,039 38,251 Other income 1, ,256 2, PBT before EO 44,076 25,120 3,689-24,391-26,706-14,640 8,462 13,330 EO income -5, ,116-2,358-3,723-1, PBT after EO 38,335 25,120-15,428-26,750-30,429-16,137 8,462 13,330 Tax 9,218 6, ,763-5,027-3,017 2,206 2,867 Rate (%) Reported PAT 29,116 18,938-14,546-19,987-25,402-13,120 6,255 10,462 Minority interests , , Preference dividend Share of Associates Adjusted PAT 34,842 19,104 6,335-16,662-19,128-10,532 6,647 10,863 Change (%) Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (INR Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Share Capital Reserves 211, , , , , , , ,097 Net Worth 212, , , , , , , ,012 Minority Interest 5,573 10,802 8,573 8,003 6,467 5,546 5,556 5,558 Total Loans 246, , , , , , , ,672 Deferred Tax Liability 13,365 14,727 20,185 13,477 53,586 53,586 53,592 53,597 Capital Employed 477, , , , , , , ,839 Gross Block 267, , , , , , ,164 1,015,164 Less: Accum. Deprn. 74, , , , , , , ,266 Net Fixed Assets 192, , , , , , , ,898 Capital WIP 192, ,112 90, ,266 97,162 52,162 17,162 12,162 Goodwill & Revaluation 1,543 5,930 5,485 5,485 5,670-6,330-18,330-30,330 Investments 8,089 3,418 17,852 3,577 3,677 3,677 3,677 3,677 Curr. Assets 176, , , , , , , ,114 Inventory 45,242 48,812 48,487 32,360 35,993 46,007 60,014 64,525 Account Receivables 19,541 17,724 16,907 14,292 17,166 22,626 29,515 31,734 Cash and Bank Balance 2,001 10,153 11,391 6,204 4,776 7,268 29,279 34,970 Loans & advances and others 109, , , ,326 87,885 87,885 87,885 87,885 Curr. Liability & Prov. 93, ,405 61,181 62,310 85,748 86,539 95,724 98,682 Account Payables 31,360 49,192 38,391 42,186 29,378 30,169 39,354 42,311 Provisions & Others 61,724 76,212 22,790 20,124 56,370 56,370 56,370 56,370 Net Current Assets 82,962 83, ,172 96,872 60,072 77, , ,432 Appl. of Funds 477, , , , , , , ,839 E: MOSL Estimates 9 February

6 Financials and Valuations Ratios (Consolidated) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E Basic (INR) EPS (18.2) (20.9) (11.5) Cash EPS BV/Share DPS Payout (%) Valuation (x) P/E (15.0) (13.0) (23.7) Cash P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Return Ratios (%) EBITDA Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%) (8.6) (8.8) (3.8) RoE (8.5) (7.9) (3.6) RoCE (pre-tax) RoIC (pre-tax) Working Capital Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (Days) Debtor (Days) Payable (Days) Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio Interest Cover Ratio Debt/Equity E: MOSt Estimates Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (INR Million) Y/E March E 2019E 2020E EBITDA 65,685 57,764 54,598 34,410 46,613 63,973 94, ,575 Non cash exp. (income) 628-2,456-21,600-4,581-3,723-1,497 (Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap. -23,207 12,816-18,154 11,762 35,372-14,684-11,711-3,771 Tax Paid -7,884-8,337-3, ,017-2,201-2,862 CF from Op. Activity 35,223 59,786 11,451 41,422 78,261 50,809 81,051 93,942 (Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP -84, ,525-50,964-39,500-35,406-30,000-20,000-20,000 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -3,405 4,898-13,430 15,904 Acquisition in subsidiaries 120-4, , , Loans and advances -9,676-1, ,337 Int. & Dividend Income 1,068 1,805 1,003 2, Other investing activities ,341 1,699 CF from Inv. Activity -95, ,437-65,365-19,889-34,994-18,765-20,000-20,000 Equity raised/(repaid) 0-3, Debt raised/(repaid) 75, ,838 90,704 9,230-10,459 8, ,000 Dividend (incl. tax) -1,569-1,488-1, Interest paid -15,713-21,775-34,381-35,941-34,240-37,552-39,039-38,251 Other financing 3, CF from Fin. Activity 61,111 88,802 55,151-26,719-44,699-29,552-39,039-68,251 (Inc)/Dec in Cash 509 8,152 1,238-5,187-1,432 2,492 22,011 5,691 Add: opening Balance 1,492 2,001 10,153 11,391 6,204 4,776 7,268 29,279 Closing Balance 2,001 10,153 11,391 6,204 4,772 7,268 29,279 34,970 E: MOSL Estimates 9 February

7 N O T E S 9 February

8 Explanation of Investment Rating Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month) BUY >=15% SELL < - 10% NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15% UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation *In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend. Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). Jindal Steel & Power Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. 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