Bloomberg Weekly Gold Survey

Transcription

1 2009/4/6 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀자료 : Bloomberg / MarketWatch Gold May Rebound Next Week as U.S. Price Report Revives Demand By Claudia Carpenter April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rebound next week on speculation rising prices will revive demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Twelve of 17 traders, investors and analysts, or 71 percent, surveyed by Bloomberg News said gold would climb. Four people, or 24 percent, forecast lower prices and one was neutral. Gold futures for delivery in June are down 2.1 percent this week to $906.1 an ounce in New York. Prices of goods imported into the U.S. probably rose 0.9 percent in March, the first increase since July, according to the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department report is set for release on April 9. The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 151 of 255 weeks, or 59 percent of the time. This week s survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 4 Neutral: 1 To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: April 3, :13 EDT 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 1/1

2 Gold Futures Close Below $900 on Equity Rally; Silver Declines By Pham-Duy Nguyen April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices closed below $900 an ounce, capping the second straight weekly slide, on speculation that the U.S. economy will rebound, eroding the precious metal s appeal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined. U.S. stocks were poised for a fourth straight weekly gain after a government report showed the unemployment rate in March matched estimates by economists. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has been unchanged since March 27. There s just not a lot of interest in gold, and it goes back to the rally we ve seen in equities, said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. A lot of the flight-to-quality buying has come out of the market. Gold futures for June delivery fell $11.60, or 1.3 percent, to $ an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The most-active contract dropped 3 percent this week, shrinking the 2009 gain to 1.5 percent. Silver futures for May delivery declined 29 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $ an ounce. The metal dropped 4 percent this week. The price still is up 13 percent this year. The U.S. jobless rate increased to 8.5 percent from 8.1 percent in February. Stocks around the world jumped yesterday as the Group of 20 nations agreed on measures to fight the global recession. Gain in Equities The Standard & Poor s 500 Index is up 2.7 percent this week. In the previous three weeks, the gauge gained 19 percent. As people see data coming out showing improvements in the economy, interest in gold will dwindle, Zeman said. The International Monetary Fund s plan to sell gold to raise cash, announced last year, may not affect bullion prices, John Reade, a metals strategist at UBS AG, said today in a report. Revenue from proposed IMF sales will be used to help support the poorest countries, the G-20 leaders said yesterday. The IMF s board approved a proposal in April 2008 to sell metric tons of gold as part of a plan to close the Washington- based lender s annual deficit. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 2/2

3 The sale will probably be structured similar to the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which limits sales to 500 metric tons each year. This change has no impact on our gold-price forecast, Reade said. In the current environment, an additional 100 or 200 tons of gold sales per annum are almost insignificant compared to the changes taking place in investment, jewelry demand and scrap supply. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves after the U.S. and Germany. To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at Last Updated: April 3, :51 EDT Gold on Track for Second Weekly Decline as Haven Allure Fades By Glenys Sim April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traded little changed in Asia, heading for a second weekly fall, as investors shifted more funds into shares amid growing optimism that the worst of the global economic slump may be over. Asian stocks gained for a third day as leaders from the Group of 20 pledged more than $1 trillion in emergency aid to cushion the fallout from the global recession. Manufacturing in China gained last month, orders placed with U.S. factories improved, and house prices in the U.K. rose. The gold price slipped lower, with investors attracted to the equity markets, David Moore, chief commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in an today. Some investors buy gold as a store of value at times of financial crisis, selling when perceived risks have declined. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $ an ounce at 1:58 p.m. in Singapore, after declining 2.5 percent yesterday. Bullion is down 2.1 percent this week as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.7 percent. G-20 policy makers, meeting in London, called for stricter limits on hedge funds, executive pay, credit-rating firms and risk-taking by banks. They tripled the firepower of the International Monetary Fund and offered cash to revive trade to help governments weather the financial turmoil. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 3/3

4 There s growing optimism that the world economy has reached a bottom, said Yoshinori Nagano, a senior equity strategist at Daiwa Asset Management Co. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchangetraded fund backed by bullion, has been unchanged since March 27. China s manufacturing expanded for the first time in six months, according to the Purchasing Manager s Index, which rose to 52.4 in March from 49 in February. Orders placed with U.S. factories rose 1.8 percent in February, the first gain since July. U.K. house prices gained 0.9 percent in March. IMF Proposal A U.K. official said yesterday the IMF should consider selling gold reserves to raise cash. International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander said there has been discussion with South Africa about the market effects of a phased and appropriate sale of some IMF bullion reserves. The IMF s board approved a proposal in April 2008 to sell metric tons of bullion as part of a plan to close the Washington-based lender s annual deficit. We expect that the IMF will sell the gold over the next few years, but do not believe that this presents a strong negative risk to gold prices as it will be orderly and maybe even off market, Morgan Stanley analyst Hussein Allidina wrote in an today. Central banks such as those in China, Russia and Japan are obvious counter-parties to such off- market sales. The IMF is the third-largest holder of gold reserves after the U.S. and Germany, with 3,217 tons in deposits, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council. Among other precious metals for immediate delivery, silver was down 0.6 percent at $12.89 an ounce, platinum fell 1.4 percent to $1, an ounce, and palladium was 0.4 percent lower at $ an ounce as of 2 p.m. in Singapore. To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net Last Updated: April 3, :10 EDT 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 4/4

5 G20 supports IMF's plan to sell 403 tons of gold Endorsement signals plan likely to be approved by member countries this year By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch Last update: 3:30 p.m. EDT April 2, 2009 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Leaders from the Group of 20 nations Thursday endorsed the International Monetary Fund's plan to sell 403 tons of gold to raise funds to support the world's poorest countries. The announcement from G20 leaders helped add pressures to Thursday's gold trading. Gold futures fell $20.30, or 2.2%, to $ an ounce in recent trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. See Metals Stocks. The G20 vowed in its statement to "use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries." Read more on G20. The endorsement suggests that the IMF's gold sales plan is likely to be approved by its member countries later this year. The IMF has been planning to sell gold since as early as 2007 to diversify its revenues and strengthen its balance sheet. But the plan needs to be approved by an 85% majority vote from its 185 members. The U.S., which has 17% voting power in the fund, essentially holds veto power. The U.S. government has informed the IMF that Congressional authorization by law is required before it is able to support the plan. The U.S. Treasury announced last year that it will seek authority from Congress. Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note Thursday that he expects the IMF to implement the sales over the next few years, "but do not believe that this presents a strong negative risk to gold prices - as it will be 'orderly' and maybe even off market." Minimize market impact The IMF, which holds more than 3,200 tons of gold, is the third-largest holder in the world after the U.S. and Germany. Most of the IMF's gold holdings come from the fund's member countries, which are required to commit 25% of their quota in gold. The fund can't sell those holdings into the markets. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 5/5

6 But an additional tons of gold the fund acquired through off-market transactions in 1999 and such as interest payment from countries that received IMF loans - are not subject to the restriction. If member countries approved the gold sales, the IMF can find ready buyers in countries with low gold reserves, especially Russia and some Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, and India. China, with less than 1% of its $2 trillion reserves held in gold, has expressed interest in buying more gold, crude oil, and other strategic commodities. According to the IMF's plan, the gold selling will be implemented in coordination with major central banks to minimize the impact on the market. The European Central Bank said Wednesday it had completed the sale of 35.5 tons of gold. The gold sales were in full conformity with the second Central Banks Gold Agreement, which was signed in 2004 by the ECB and other European major official gold holders. The second CBGA, which caps total gold sales of the signatories at 500 tons a year, expires in September. Some analysts expect a third CBGA to be signed before September. Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York Gold Drops Most in a Week as Equity Rally Dulls Haven Demand By Pham-Duy Nguyen April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell the most in more than a week on speculation that the world economy will improve, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a haven. Silver gained. Global equity indexes rallied as Group of 20 leaders met to discuss economic stimulus plans amid mounting evidence the worst of the recession may be over. Manufacturing in China increased last month and home prices in the U.K. rose. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has been unchanged since March 27. The fear is coming down, and so is gold, said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. If gold is an indicator of fear and trepidation, as fear diminishes, people will sell gold. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 6/6

7 Gold futures for June delivery fell $18.80, or 2 percent, to $ an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since March 24. The Standard & Poor s 500 Index of equities jumped as much as 4.3 percent and the MSCI World Index climbed for a third straight day. National leaders at the G-20 meeting agreed to a regulatory crackdown to rein in excesses and pledged more than $1 trillion in emergency aid to help ease the global recession. The summit produced a call for stricter rules governing hedge funds, executive pay, credit ratings and risks taken by banks. IMF Gold Sale Gold s losses accelerated after a U.K. official said the International Monetary Fund should consider selling its gold reserves to raise cash. International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander said there has been discussion with South Africa about the market effects of a phased and appropriate sale of some IMF bullion reserves. In April 2008, the Washington-based lender s executive board approved a plan to sell metric tons of bullion to help close an annual budget deficit. President Barack Obama s administration soon will push Congress for legislation that allows the IMF to mobilize its stockpile of gold to boost its funds, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on March 11. A move to sell gold must be supported by 85 percent of the lender s executive board, and will require legislative action in most member countries, the IMF said in April The board representative from the U.S. needs congressional approval to vote in favor of any sales, the IMF said. The mere mention of the possibility of IMF gold sales making the rounds at the G-20 today is pressuring gold prices, said Ralph Preston, a commodity analyst at Heritage West Futures Inc. in San Diego. A drop below $890 may trigger more selling, he said. IMF Holdings The IMF is the third-largest holder of gold reserves after the U.S. and Germany, according to the producerfunded World Gold Council. On its Web site, the lender says it has 3,217 metric tons (103.4 million ounces) in bullion deposits. You ve got the IMF selling gold -- maybe it s not a lot, but psychologically it would weigh on the market, Prospector s Kaplan said. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 7/7

8 Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, rose on speculation that growth will spark demand for raw materials. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities climbed as much as 3.1 percent, paced by gains in crude oil, gasoline and nickel. Silver futures for May delivery gained 5 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $ an ounce. Gold has climbed 2.8 percent this year while silver has risen 15 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 2, :44 EDT Gold Price Probably at Peak, Westpac s Smirk Says (Update1) By Jason Scott April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for gold are probably at their peak and may decline relative to other commodities, Westpac Banking Corp. The world deflationary spiral has and is currently keeping gold below $1,000 an ounce and I don t expect it to get back above that, or not by much, for about two years, Westpac Senior Economist Justin Smirk told a conference in Perth today. Gold mining companies are looking to increase production as prices climb on investor demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Precious metals have benefited as some investors sought to protect their wealth and hedge against inflation as governments pumped more money into economies. Gold is trading about 10 percent below last year s all-time high of $1, an ounce. It gained 4.6 percent in the quarter ended March 31. A weaker dollar is positive for gold prices, Smirk said. Gold will be outperformed by other rebounding commodities, which will move faster as economies recover, he said. Risk conditions have past their most extreme. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at jscott14@bloomberg.net Last Updated: April 1, :08 EDT 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 8/8

9 Gold Rises in London as Dollar Weakens; Set for Quarterly Gain By Nicholas Larkin March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London, heading for its best quarter in a year, as a weaker dollar boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment, and as some investors bought bullion after a twoday decline. The dollar fell as much as 0.8 percent against the euro. Bullion, which yesterday traded at its lowest since March 18, and the dollar have returned to an inverse correlation in recent weeks after moving in tandem for most of 2009 as investors sought havens from bank failures and plunging stock prices. The euro is picking up against the dollar and that s pushing gold higher, Sagiv Peretz, a senior dealer at trading- system operator Finotec Trading U.K., said by phone from London. After two days of declines, bargain hunters went back into the market. Demand for gold is still strong as a hedge against future inflation, he said. Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as $6.42, or 0.7 percent, to $ an ounce and traded at $ by 11:42 a.m. local time. It s up 4 percent this quarter. June futures added 0.2 percent to $ an ounce in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange s Comex division. The metal slipped to $ in the morning fixing in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $928 at yesterday s afternoon fixing. Spot prices reached a record $1, in March Gold has gained the past three months on concern that government stimulus packages will devalue the dollar and stoke inflation. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, reached a record 1, metric tons on March 27, according to the latest figures on the company s Web site. ETF Securities Ltd. today said its gold exchange-traded commodities attracted the most money last week. Monthly Drop Still, the metal is set for its first monthly decline since October, as higher prices deter jewelry buyers and equities climb. The MSCI World Index of shares advanced 6 percent this month while gold has dropped 2.5 percent. Some investors may view the rally in equities in the past three weeks as a sign that the global economy will start to recover faster than previously expected, and inflationary concerns will increase, Peretz said. Still, gold has suffered a bit from physical demand from jewelry, he said. 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 9/9

10 Gold imports by India, the world s biggest buyer, were near zero this month, the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd. said today. The country, which imported 21 tons of gold in March last year, may resume imports in about two weeks as stockpiles and scrap supplies recede, the association s vice president, Harmesh Arora, said. Group of 20 Leaders from the Group of 20 nations will meet in London on April 2 to discuss their response to the global economic crisis. European Central Bank officials meet the same day and will probably lower the interest rate to 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said last week the central bank may offer longer-term loans and could buy corporate debt to boost the economy. The dollar s role as a reserve currency and so-called quantitative easing by the ECB will dominate precious metals this week, Walter de Wet, a London-based analyst at Standard Bank Ltd., wrote today in a report. We do not foresee that the dollar will be toppled as global reserve currency, nor do we believe that the ECB will resort to quantitative easing yet, he said. But there will be discussion on both points, which should benefit gold. The dollar briefly plunged and gold spiked on March 25 after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner commented on China s ideas for a new international reserve currency. The U.S. currency then recouped much of its losses and bullion retreated after Geithner affirmed the dollar should remain the world s reserve currency. Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, silver rose 0.5 percent to $13.10 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.5 percent to $1, an ounce, and palladium declined 0.9 percent to $ an ounce. To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 31, :56 EDT 상품개발부골드뱅킹팀 10/10