Houston Economic Outlook. Patrick Jankowski

Transcription

1 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski

2

3 Working Rigs U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan '14 Jun '14 Jan '15 Jun '15 Jan '16 Jun '16 Jan '17 Jun '17 Jan '18 Source: Baker Hughes 3

4 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Average Weekly Spot Price Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun '17 Aug '17 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 4

5 Jobs, 000s Regional Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '18-20 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

6 Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 6

7 $ Billions City of Houston Building Permits Month Total '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: City of Houston Residential Nonresidential Total 7

8 Then Hurricane Harvey Hit 8

9 Pinwheel vs. Waterwheel

10 Hurricane Harvey s Path

11 Harvey Rainfall Summary - Inches Cedar Bayou 51.9 Beaumont/Port Arthur 47.4 Pasadena 45.7 Friendswood 44.1 First Colony 36.3 Baytown 35.6 Bush Intercontinental 31.3 Galveston 22.8 Victoria 15.6 Corpus Christi 6.2 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 11

12 Rain Event vs. Wind Event

13 Hurricane Impacts Hurricane/Storm Economic Losses - $ Billions Total Property Output Deaths Katrina ,836 Harvey Sandy Irma Andrew Source: Moody s Analytics 13

14 During the Storm Rescues/Evacuations People: 122,331 Pets/Animals: 5,249 Shelter Population 34,575 at peak Death toll 36 in Harris County 14

15 Flooding 50% areas that flooded in Harris County were outside 100- and 500-year floodplains 15

16 Housing Damage Significant Single-family: 103,500 Multi-family: 13,200 Minor Single-family 66,000 Multi-family: TBD 16

17 Vehicle Damages Vehicles flooded 300,000

18 Requests for FEMA Aid County Registrations Austin 446 Brazoria 33,494 Chambers 5,192 Fort Bend 48,358 Galveston 37,303 Harris 360,573 Liberty 8,323 Montgomery 14,082 Waller 1,522 Metro Houston 509,293 18

19 Peak Offline 20 refineries, 25% of U.S. capacity 50% U.S. olefin capacity 13 Texas Gulf Coast ports Bush, Hobby Airports 19

20 Wind event vs. Water event Hurricane Ike Hurricane Harvey 20

21 Preliminary Numbers: CRE Office CBRE: 40 bldgs, 9 msf (out of 1,200 bldgs, 214 msf) NAI: 60 bldgs along Buffalo Bayou

22 Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 22

23 August Home Sales CATEGORIES AUGUST 2016 AUGUST 2017 CHANGE Total Sales 9,335 7, % Total Volume $2,562,458,783 $1,993,970, % Single-Family Sales 7,927 5, % Single-Family Average Price $288,920 $296, % Single-Family Median Price $225,000 $231, % Source: Houston Association of Realtors

24 Pause, not rewind. 24

25 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

26 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

27 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

28 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

29 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

30 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Impact on real estate development TBD

31 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Long-term impact on real estate TBD

32 90% firms opened Tuesday after Labor Day One-in-ten workers impacted Significant job losses in September Construction to pick up in October Impact on energy prices beginning to fade No significant impact on long-term population growth Long-term impact on real estate TBD No significant impact on business infrastructure

33 ... singled out moments of grace as inspiration for this week s cover... 33

34 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski