Labor Market Conditions in the Region

Transcription

1 Labor Market Conditions in the Region Economic Press Briefing: December 4, 2018 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 The 2 nd Federal Reserve District Regions in the District Upstate NY Puerto Rico & Northern NJ U.S. Virgin Islands Downstate NY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1

3 Overview Job growth has been strong in New York City, moderate nearby, and sluggish in upstate New York. Puerto Rico and the USVI are still recovering from the storms. Labor markets have tightened across the region, even in parts of upstate New York with little or no job growth during the expansion. As a result, wage growth has picked up throughout the region. The types of jobs gained differ within the region. Thus, even with tight labor markets, it may still be challenging for some workers without the skills desired in their local area to find a good job. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 2

4 Job Growth in the Region

5 Job Growth in the Region Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted 121 Index (Dec2007 = 100) Downstate NY United States Northern NJ Upstate NY Oct Puerto Rico Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com; regional data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 4

6 PR and the USVI Still Recovering Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted 110 Index (Month Before Hurricane = 100) NY-NNJ Coastal Counties (Sandy Oct 2012) 100 PR (Maria Sep 2017) 90 USVI (Irma/Maria Sep 2017) 80 New Orleans (Katrina Aug 2005) Months Before Hurricane Months After Hurricane Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 5

7 NYC Remains an Engine of Job Growth Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted 121 Index (Dec2007 = 100) Oct 114 New York City 107 Long Island Lower Hudson Valley Fairfield CT Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 6

8 Sluggish Job Growth in Upstate NY Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Dec2007 = 100) Albany Oct 100 Syracuse Buffalo Rochester Utica 93 Binghamton Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 7

9 Tight Labor Markets in the Region

10 Exceptionally Low Unemployment Long-Run and Current Rates, Seasonally Adjusted 10% 8% 6% 4% United States Long-Run Average Current Lower Hudson Valley Long Island New York City Fairfield 5.1 Northern New Jersey Ithaca 4.1 Rochester Albany Syracuse Binghamton Glens Falls Buffalo Elmira Utica Watertown % 0% Little or No Job Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 9

11 Regional Labor Force Trends Indexes of Total Labor Force, Seasonally Adjusted 112 Index (Dec2007 = 100) New York City Long Island United States Northern NJ Upstate NY Metros with Some Growth 92 Upstate NY Metros with Little or No Growth Upstate NY Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Moody s Economy.com. 10

12 More Firms Increasing Wages FRBNY Business Leaders Survey 50% 40% Nov 30% % Reporting Wage Increases 20% 10% 0% Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 Jul17 Jan18 Jul18 Jan19 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; data expressed as a 12-month moving average. 11

13 Wage Growth Has Picked Up in the Region FRBNY Supplemental Survey 6% 5% 4% 3% By about what percentage, on average, has a typical worker s wage/salary (not including benefits) changed over the past 12 months? Jan Feb Nov Jan Feb Nov % 1% 0% Business Leaders Survey Empire State Manufacturing Survey Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 12

14 Types of Jobs Gained in the Region

15 Job Categories Median Annual Wages By Occupation, United States Lower Wage Middle Wage Higher Wage Below $30,000 $30,000-$60,000 Above $60,000 Healthcare Support Sales Building Maintenance Personal Care Food Preparation Education Arts & Entertainment Construction Installation & Repair Social Services Protective Services Administrative Support Production Transportation Management Computer & Math Legal Engineering Business & Finance Healthcare Practitioners Sciences 30% 50% 20% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (2017). 14

16 Recent Job Gains in the United States Net Change in Employment, 2015 to ,000 Thousands Lower Wage Higher Wage 1,500 Middle Wage 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 15

17 Recent Job Gains in the United States Net Change in Employment, 2015 to ,000 Thousands Personal Care 750 Food Prep 500 Transportation Healthcare Practitioners Business & Finance 250 Administrative Support Construction Installation Education & Repair Management Computer & Math 0 Production -250 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 16

18 The Shape of Recent Job Gains Net Change in Employment, Thousands, 2015 to ,000 United States 90 Downstate NY 1, , Lower Wage Middle Wage Upstate NY Higher Wage New Jersey Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 17

19 Recent Job Gains in Downstate NY Net Change in Employment, 2015 to Thousands Business & Finance Food Prep Personal Care Healthcare Support Transportation Protective Installation & Repair Construction Healthcare Practitioners Computer & Math Management 0 Production Education -15 Administrative Support Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 18

20 Recent Job Gains in Upstate NY Net Change in Employment, 2015 to Thousands 10 Personal Care 5 Food Prep Transportation Installation & Repair Healthcare Practitioners Computer & Math Construction 0-5 Production -10 Administrative Support -15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 19

21 Recent Job Gains in New Jersey Net Change in Employment, 2015 to Thousands 40 Transportation Food Prep Personal Care Healthcare Support Healthcare Practitioners Business & Finance 0-10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics ( ). 20

22 Summary New York City remains an engine of growth in the region, while job growth has been slower in Northern New Jersey and upstate New York. Sustained job gains through the expansion coupled with a lack of growth in much of the region s labor force has resulted in tight labor markets throughout the region. With tight labor markets, unemployment is exceptionally low in many parts of the region and there are signs that wage growth has picked up. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 21

23 Labor Market Conditions in the Region Economic Press Briefing: December 4, 2018 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.