Labor Market Trends in the Region

Transcription

1 Labor Market Trends in the Region Jaison R. Abel, Research Officer Investing in America s Workforce: Perspectives from Western New York Buffalo, NY; March 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Overview Regional economic conditions have improved noticeably in recent months, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Job growth in upstate NY has been slow and steady through the expansion, with Buffalo faring better than many of its upstate peers. As job growth has picked up, especially in the middle of the wage distribution, businesses in the region report widespread difficultly finding workers with all types of skills. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1

3 Recent Economic Performance

4 Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Regional Business Surveys 40 Diffusion Index 20 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Mar 0-20 Business Leaders Survey (Service Sector) -40 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 3

5 Regional Employment Trends Total Employment Through Jan 2017, Seasonally Adjusted 112 Index (December 2007 = 100) Dashed Line Indicates U.S. Employment Trough (February 2010) +1.9% Month Annual Percent Change +1.7% % 100 Downstate NY Buffalo +0.9% Upstate Metros 96 United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 4

6 Buffalo Job Growth by Sector 12-Month Change Through January ,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Education & Healthcare Leisure & Hospitality 1,993 1,860 Gov t Financial Activities 1,131 1, Construction 545 Professional & Business Manufacturing Trade -405 Information Transportation -1,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 5

7 Upstate Manufacturing Trends Indexes of Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted 125 Index (Jan1990=100) Albany Buffalo Jan Syracuse Rochester Binghamton Shading indicates NBER recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 6

8 The Return of - Jobs

9 Job Categories Based on 2015 Median s, United States $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 20% 50% 30% Management Computer & Math Legal Engineering Business & Finance Healthcare Practitioners Sciences Education Arts & Entertainment Installation & Repair Construction Social Services Protective Services Administrative Support Production Transportation Healthcare Support Sales Building Maintenance Personal Care Farming Food Preparation $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 8

10 Job Gains and Losses in the United States Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands 3,000 Thousands 1, ,104 1,205 2,184 1,470 2,261 1,577-1,500-3,000-4,500-6,000-7,500-6, to to to 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 9

11 - Jobs Returning Growth in traditional blue collar jobs: Construction Production Transportation Installation & Repair Education jobs growing again as local government fiscal pressures have subsided. Rebound in Administrative Support jobs. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 10

12 Job Gains and Losses in Downstate NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands 200 Thousands to to to 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 11

13 Job Gains and Losses in Upstate NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Thousands 2007 to to to 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 12

14 Job Gains and Losses in Buffalo NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands 10 Thousands to to to 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 13

15 A Shrinking Share of Jobs by Group, 2007 and % 80% 20% 22% 22% 23% 20% 22% 18% 20% 60% 52% 49% 50% 47% 54% 50% 54% 50% 40% 20% 28% 29% 28% 30% 27% 29% 28% 30% 0% United States Downstate NY Upstate NY Buffalo NY Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 14

16 Difficulty Finding Skilled Workers FRBNY Supplemental Survey Report, April 2015 Percentage Reporting Difficulty Advanced Computer Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business Leaders Survey Basic Math Basic English Basic Computer Interpersonal Punctuality/ Reliability Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 15

17 Labor Market Trends in the Region Jaison R. Abel, Research Officer Investing in America s Workforce: Perspectives from Western New York Buffalo, NY; March 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.