Roads Economic Decision Model (RED)

Transcription

1 Roads Economic Decision Model (RED) March 2006 Rodrigo Archondo-Callao The World Bank

2 RED Objectives Simplify the economic evaluation of unpaved roads Better capture the economic benefits of a project Characterize the wet and dry seasons separately Include in the analysis the high level of uncertainty related to low volume roads (risk analysis) Produce proper sensitivity, switching values, user impacts, and distribution of benefits analyses Perform budget constraint optimization and multicriteria analysis

3 RED Development RED is being developed by the World Bank for the Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program (SSATP) RED version 1.0 was released in 1999, version 3.2 was released in 2004 RED is being used at project and network level in many countries worldwide (Nicaragua, Turkey, Ecuador, Chad, Argentina, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Lao, Cambodia, Yemen, South Africa, Benin, Rwanda, Burkina Faso and Mali, etc.) RED version 3.2, 2004, is available at the website: 32_en.htm

4 Economic Evaluation of Unpaved Roads Unpaved Road Versus Paved Roads (HDM-4 evaluation) Low Volume Roads Versus Very Low Volume Roads (< 50? AADT unpaved roads: social evaluation, maximize population served per investment, multicriteria, producer surplus) Consumer Surplus Approach Versus Producer Surplus Approach (difficult to judge the assumptions made, concern of double counting benefits) Customized Excel Model Versus HDM Models (HDM- III and HDM-4 models have unpaved roads deterioration models, but are not particularly customized to evaluated unpaved roads)

5 RED Characteristics a) Constant average level of service over evaluation period b) Three options to define levels of service c) Two periods during a year: period with and without direct passability (wet and dry seasons) d) User defined equations relating road user costs and speeds to roughness e) Generated, induced and diverted traffic benefits f) Risk analysis with triangular distributions g) Budget constraint optimization h) Multi-criteria and cost effectiveness analysis

6 a) Constant average level of service over evaluation period HDM-III Road Deterioration RED Average Level of Service Year

7 HDM-III/HDM-4 Roughness Estimates for Unpaved Roads Valid for engineered unpaved roads with good maintenance (good drainage). Therefore: Higher rainfall yields lower roughness Higher percent of trucks yields lower roughness Earth roads (finer soils) have lower roughness than gravel roads In practice, the condition of an unpaved road can be different from what is being predicted by the HDM models

8 b) Three options to define levels of service a) Roughness b) Speed of a Reference Vehicle c) Roughness & Speeds of All Vehicles a) b) c) Input Road Input Reference Roughness Vehicle Speed Input Road Roughness Estimated Road Roughness Light Heavy Light Heavy Heavy Car Utility Bus Truck Truck Car Utility Bus Truck Truck Car Truck VOC VOC VOC... VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC... VOC VOC VOC. VOC Light Heavy Light Heavy Input Speeds Car Utility Bus Truck Truck Car Utility Bus Truck Truck for All Vehicles Speed Speed Speed... Speed Speed Speed Speed Speed... Speed Speed. Equations for each vehicle type and each terrain-road type: a) Vehicle Operating Costs = a0 + a1 * Roughness + a2 * Roughness^2 + a3 * Roughness^3 b) Speed = b0 + b1 * Roughness + b2 * Roughness^2 + b3 * Roughness^3 Equation for each terrain-road type and for the defined reference vehicle: c) Roughness = c0 + c1 * Speed + c2 * Speed^2 + a3 * Speed^3

9 c) Two periods during a year Days Per Year With Direct Passability Days Per Year Without Direct Passability - Different Length - Different Roughness - Different Speeds - Different Traffic Higher Transport Costs

10 d) User defined equations relating vehicle operating costs and speeds to roughness Vehicle Operating Costs ($/veh-km) Road Type X Y Z Terrain Type A B C AZ y = -2E-05x x x R 2 = Roughness (IRI) Vehicle Type Car Utility Light Bus Medium Bus Heavy Bus Light Truck Medium Truck Heavy Truck Articulated Truck Vehicle Speeds (km/hour) y = x x x R 2 = Roughness (IRI)

11 Vehicle Operating Costs and Speeds Function of Roughness Obtained from HDM-III, HDM-4 or Other Models Flat / Paved / Car Flat / Paved / Car y = -2E-05x x x R 2 = Roughness (IRI) Roughness (IRI) HDM-III Values HDM-III Values Polynomial Results from HDM (VOC X IRI) Fitted Cubic Polynomial

12 e) Generated, induced, and diverted traffic benefits Normal traffic. Traffic without any new investment Generated traffic. Traffic associated with existing users of the road driving more frequently or driving further than before Induced traffic. Traffic attracted to the project road from other roads, changing its origin or destination, due to increased economic activity in the road s zone of influence brought about by the project Diverted traffic. Traffic that diverts to the project road from an alternative road with the same origin and destination as the project

13 Generated Traffic <> Lower Transport Costs Induced Traffic <> Local Economic Development Decrease in Transport Costs Special Local Economic Development (Induced Traffic) Transport Costs Transport Costs Consumer Surplus Consumer Surplus COST1 COST1 COST2 COST2 d2 d1 d1 ADT1 ADT2 Traffic ADT2 ADT3 Traffic Normal Generated Traffic Generated Traffic Traffic due to Decrease in due to Special Local Transport Costs Economic Development User enters: User enters: - Percent of normal traffic or - Amount of generated traffic due to special local economic development or - Price elasticity of demand = Percent Increase in Traffic Percent Decrease in Transport Cost

14 f) Risks analysis with triangular distributions Country Africa Region Project Road Management Initiative Road Road from Point A to Point B Option 2 Upgrade to ST Internal Rate of Return Upgrade Road to Surface Treatment Standard Minimum 4.2% Maximum 22.7% Average 11.9% Standard Deviation 3.5% Median 11.7% Percentile 25% 9.4% Percentile 50% 11.7% Percentile 75% 14.1% Probability that IRR is less than 12% 50% Probability that IRR is greater than 12% 50% Upgrade Road to Surface Treatment Standard 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.1% 8.1% 9.1% 10.1% 11.2% 12.2% 13.2% 14.2% 15.3% 16.3% 17.3% 18.3% 19.4% 20.4% 21.4% 22.4% 23.5% 24.5% Frequency Distribution Normal Traffic 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Internal Rate of Return Frequency Distribution Multiplier Factor Project Investment Costs 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Frequency Distribution Multiplier Factor

15 g) Budget constraint optimization Program Net Present Value % Margin Net Present Value (M$) E D C B A U R PV Economic Agency Costs (M$) Net Internal Equivalent Modified PV Financial NPV NPV Present Rate Annual Internal Rate of Economic Investment per per Program-Alternative Value of Return Benefits of Return Agency Costs Cost PV Agency Investment Code Description (M$) (%) ($/km) (%) (%) (M$) (#) (#) U Unconstrained Budged % % A Budget Constraint A % % B Budget Constraint B % % C Budget Constraint C % % D Budget Constraint D % % E Budget Constraint E % % R Recommended Program % %

16 h) Multi-criteria and cost effectiveness analysis User Defined Financial Net NPV Internal Population Recommended Alternative Investment Present per Rate Population per Road Road Road Cost Value Investment of Return Served Investment No. ID Name Number Name (M$) (M$) (#) (%) (persons) (person/1000$) 1 R01 Road R01 with 25 AADT 0 Current Poor Condition #N/A R02 Road R02 with 50 AADT 1 Bring to Fair Condition % R03 Road R03 with 100 AADT 2 Bring to Good Condition % R04 Road R04 with 200 AADT 3 Pave with ST % R05 Road R05 with 300 AADT 3 Pave with ST % R06 Road R06 with 400 AADT 3 Pave with ST % R07 Road R07 with 500 AADT 3 Pave with ST Multi-Criteria Weights % R09 Road R08 with 600 AADT 4 Pave with AC 6m % Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Sum Weights Multi-Criteria Indicators Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Criteria Road Overall Name (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) Road R01 with 25 AADT Road R02 with 50 AADT Road R03 with 100 AADT Road R04 with 200 AADT Road R05 with 300 AADT Importance -10Rank Importance -3 Class Road R06 with 400 AADT (1-highest, 0 2-second, 0 3-third, etc.) (-10-low, 0-medium, 0 10-high) Road R07 with 500 AADT Economic 10 Population 0 Multi- Economic Population 5 Multi- Road R08 with 600 AADT Analysis -10 Served -10 Criteria Analysis Served -5 Criteria NPV Population Multi- NPV Population Multiper per Criteria per per Criteria Road Investment Investment Sum Investment Investment Overall Name (#) (#) (#) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) (-10/0/10) Road R01 with 25 AADT Road R02 with 50 AADT Road R03 with 100 AADT Road R04 with 200 AADT Road R05 with 300 AADT Road R06 with 400 AADT Road R07 with 500 AADT Road R08 with 600 AADT

17 RED Excel Software Modules Old HDM-4 Vehicle Operating Costs Module RED - HDM-4 VOC (version 3.2).XLS HDM-III Vehicle Operating Costs Module RED - HDM-III VOC (version 3.2).XLS Main Economic Evaluation Module RED - MAIN (version 3.2).XLS Risk Analysis Module RED - RISK (version 3.2).XLS Program Analysis Module RED - Program (version 3.2).XLS

18 RED Package Contents RED - Main (version 3.2).XLS RED - HDM-III VOC (version 3.2).XLS RED - HDM-4 VOC (version 3.2).XLS RED - Risk (version 3.2).XLS RED - Program (version 3.2).XLS RED - Read Me (version 3.2).XLS RED - User Guide & Case Studies (version 3.2).DOC RED - SSATP Technical Note 18.PDF

19 RED and Urban Roads Level of service defined by roughness and vehicle speeds Non-motorized and motorcycles benefits Alternative pavement options (cement blocks, cobblestones, etc.) User defined equations relating road user costs and roughness (e.g. unpaved/paved or /noncongested/congested) Generated, induced and diverted traffic benefits

20 What is Next for RED Further dissemination within the Bank and other Agencies (ongoing) Preparation of an Applications Guide presenting case studies based on real applications of the model (ongoing) Deal with cases with no passability Deal with social benefits Create a Seniors Executives Module

21 RED Related Web Sites Software Tools RANSPORT/EXTROADSHIGHWAYS/0,,contentMDK: ~menuPK: ~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSite PK:338661,00.html Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program (SSATP) World Bank Infrastructure Notes m#rural Design and Appraisal of Rural Transport Infrastructure Topic htm#aspects