Implementing the MTO s Priority Economic Analysis Tool

Transcription

1 Implementing the MTO s Priority Economic Analysis Tool presented at 6th National Conference on Transportation Asset Management presented by Alison Bradbury Ontario Ministry of Transportation November 2,

2 Agenda Background PEAT Overview Implementation Moving Forward 2

3 Background The Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) has been developing an Asset Management Business Framework (AMBF) for the last 3 years. The framework includes all aspects of the Ministry s Provincial Highways Management. The backbone of the AMBF are the Corridor Investment Plans. 3

4 Asset Management Business Process Draft TO-BE AMBF - Annual Investment Planning - Business Process Level 1 (March 28, 2003) Central Agencies Award Budgets PP&S/ Fin Branch 1. Setting the Context and Providing Direction 4. Pursuing Funding PMB/ COB 2. Identifying Needs 3. Generating Alternatives and Evaluating Solutions 6. Feedback and Oversight 5. Delivering Programs 4 Regions

5 Corridor Investment Plans (CIP) Identify and define deficiencies within corridors Report on Performance Measures Condition (pavements and bridges) Mobility and Safety (future considerations) Infrastructure Debt Analysis of of different long term management alternatives including changes in condition or functionality. Assets: Pavement sections Bridges Intersections/Interchanges Facilities Furniture Improvement Types Rehabilitation Reconstruction Expansion Preservation Maintenance 5

6 Introduction to PEAT PEAT: Priority Economic Analysis Tool Project-level economic analysis that fills gaps in the MTO s existing management systems Provides a consistent framework for analyzing Highway projects Bridge projects Intersection projects Expansion projects 6

7 Introduction to PEAT PEAT was designed to help answer two basic questions Is a project a good investment? If so, should it be implemented now or later? 7

8 MTO s Requirements for PEAT The economic analysis tool had to be: Built on the existing AMBF Easy to use, built in either Excel or Access Based on economic analysis best practices Use available models Utilize currently available MTO data Calibrated to Ontario conditions (use Ontario parameters and MTO costs) 8

9 Approach to PEAT Development Available Models Best Fit Models Model Screening Process Working Prototype (Excel) Production System 9

10 Approach to Tool Development NBIAS HERS Best Fit Models HDM 4 NBIAS Available Models Caltrans B/C Transfund WSDOT RealCost Model Screening Process HERS Caltrans B/C Transfund WSDOT PEAT Excel Workbook AASTO RealCost NYSDOT QUEWZ 98 10

11 PEAT Analyzes Highway projects Bridge projects Intersection projects 4 step transportation model results (planning tool) PEAT estimates: Immediate agency costs (3 levels) Future agency costs Road user costs 11

12 PEAT INPUTS Highway Project Highway Economic Analysis Project Setting Short Project Name First Year of Analysis Period Highway Example 2005 Project Length (kilometres) 4.0 Type of Pavement Treatment Reconstruct Type of Area Urban Terrain Flat Functional Class Freeway Physical Characteristics Existing Improved Number of Through Lanes (total) 2 4 Right Shoulder Width (metres) 1 3 Left Shoulder Width (metres) 1 3 Type of Pavement Flexible Flexible Initial Pavement Condition (IRI) No. of Signalized Intersections 0 0 No. of Intersections with Stop Signs 0 0 Speed Limit (kilometres per hour) $ 6,442 12

13 PEAT INPUTS - Highway continued Construction of Improved Highway Section Year Construction Begins 2005 Duration of Construction (years) 0 Decision Period (years) 5 Traffic AADT for Recent Year 25,000 Recent Year for which AADT is given 2004 AADT for Future Year 50,000 Future Year for which AADT is given 2024 Initial Percent Trucks 7.0% Safety Characteristics Number of accidents per year Existing Improved Fatal Non-Fatal Injury Property Damage Only Base Year for Accident Estimates

14 PEAT Cost Estimating Summary and Level 1 Cost Estimate Summary (000s) Override on = No Project Name Highway Example Land Year of Construction Design Acquisition Estimate Cost Cost Cost Estimate Tracking Cost Total Cost Level $ 6,442 $ 6,442 Level Level 3 Highway Example Level 1 Estimate (000s) Year of Estimate 2004 Proposed Work Unit Quantity Default Unit Cost Unit Cost Override Cost Resurface Asphalt lane-km - $ 106 Concrete lane-km - $ 365 Reconstruct Asphalt lane-km 8.0 $ 349 $ 2,796 Concrete lane-km - $ 547 Add Lanes Asphalt lane-km 8.0 $ 456 $ 3,647 Concrete lane-km - $ 729 Total Level 1 Cost Estimate $ 6,442 14

15 PEAT Cost Estimating Level 2 and 3 Highway Example Level 2 Estimate (000s) Year of Estimate 2004 Proposed Work Unit Quantity Default Unit Cost Unit Cost Override Cost Resurfacing 50 mm lane-km $ mm lane-km $ mm lane-km $ 186 Concrete lane-km $ 300 Composite lane-km $ 300 Reconstruction 90 mm lane-km $ mm lane-km $ 300 Deep Strength Asphalt lane-km $ 400 Concrete lane-km $ 450 Composite lane-km $ 500 Add Through Lanes 90 mm lane-km $ mm lane-km $ mm lane-km $ 450 Deep Strength Asphalt lane-km $ 550 Concrete lane-km $ 600 Composite lane-km $ 650 Highway Example Level 3 Estimate Use this Workspace to Develop Level 3 Cost Estimate. When complete, update cell C9 15

16 PEAT Default Parameters Economic Analysis Parameters Override On = No Highway Example Default Values Override Used in Proj. Evaluation General Discount rate 5.3% 5.3% Length of analysis period (years) Number of days per year Future Truck Percentage 7.0% 7.0% Travel Time ($/vehicle hour) Autos Value of regular travel time $ $ Value of incident delay $ $ Trucks Value of regular travel time $ $ Value of incident delay $ $ Vehicle Operating Costs ($) Autos Fuel cost / litre $ 0.82 $ 0.82 Oil cost / litre $ 5.28 $ 5.28 Tire cost / vehicle $ 377 $ 377 Maintenance & repair / 1,000 km $ 33 $ 33 Depreciable value / vehicle $ 24,601 $ 24,601 Trucks 16

17 PEAT OUTPUTS Improve by 2010 Improve by 2005 AGENCY COSTS Initial Capital Cost $ 5,000 All Other Agency Costs $ 4,500 $ 500 Total $ 4,500 $ 5,500 ROAD USER COSTS Workzone Delays $ 15,500 $ 15,000 Other Travel Time Costs $ 185,000 $ 180,000 Vehicle Operating Costs $ 165,000 $ 160,000 Accident Costs $ 10,500 $ 10,000 Total $ 376,000 $ 365,000 NET BENEFITS Agency $ 4,000 Road Users $ 11,000 Total $ 15,000 NET COST Initial Capital Cost $ 5,000 NET PRESENT VALUE $ 10,000 BENEFIT-COST RATIO

18 Implementation Training completed for all 5 regions, including structural, geotechnical, and planning and design sections. Regions to test PEAT on the Corridor Investment Plans for this year. Workshop results of PEAT and CIP s in Winter

19 Implementation Need to answer: What is sensitivity of PEAT results? What upgrades are required? What projects should PEAT be made mandatory (is there a traffic level or highway functional class at which results are not meaningful)? 19

20 Moving Forward PEAT will become an integral part of the new Integrated Highway Inventory System. Will be able to easily gather information from Pavement Management System Bridge Management System Maintenance Information Traffic and Accident Information Mapping 20

21 IHIS2 Data (High Level Model) Events Performance Targets Thresholds Results Budgets Projects Corridor Plans Traffic Safety Location Corridors LHRS Deficiencies Work Candidates GIS/Mapping Performance Condition Predictions PEAT analysis Performance Year, Cost Assets GPS Routes Pavement Bridge Others 21

22 QUESTIONS? 22