30 April 2 May 2018 ICC Sydney Unlocking the Future through Systems Engineering. sete2018.com.au BRETT THIELE

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1 30 April 2 May 2018 ICC Sydney Unlocking the Future through Systems Engineering BRETT THIELE

2 A Standardised Data Set to Support Research on Earned Value and Earned Schedule Management Techniques

3 Motivation for Paper PhD Investigating Project, Program & Portfolio Control Techniques Real-life Data is required to test Research Hypotheses Publically available Project Data is limited No publically available Portfolio or Program Data Identified Gap in the Project Management Knowledge Base

4 Presentation Outline Brief History of EVM & Research prior to 1990 s Post 1990 s Research & Sources of Project Data Introduction of the Data Set & characteristics Brief Example of how it can be used Conclusion

5 Earned Value Management (EVM) Project Management Methodology that combines Scope, Budget and Schedule into the single unit of Cost Compares Actual Work against the Approved Plan Uses Historical Project Data to Estimate Cost and Duration at Completion

6 Earned Value Management (EVM) EVM and Project Management Research more broadly requires real quality project data to validate hypothesis. At present this data is not publically available which represents a Gap in the Project Management Landscape This paper introduces a Portfolio of 18 projects completed between and includes EVM Metrics PMB, EV, AC, ES plus Revenue

7 EVM Brief History 1950 s Realisation by US DoD PERT / CPM was not suitable 1960 s Cost / Schedule Control Systems Criteria Introduced 1990 s Industry led C/SCSC Review 1998 ANSI/EIA Earned Value Management Systems 1999 US DoD Adopts New EVMS Standard Abba (2000), Fleming & Koppelman (2010)

8 EVM Early Research 1960 s 1990: Predominately US DoD Researchers Seeking to Establish high level relationships between Project Cost and Time Used data from Defence Acquisition Executive Summary (DAES) Not publically available 1991: Academic Interest Piqued by US DoD A-12 Avenger Aircraft Contract Termination. $US4.5B Budget 50% Expended No Prototype Aircraft, No Firm Final Cost or Duration

9 EVM Early Research (Data Sources) Following the A-12 cancellation, EVM research escalated Studies / Reviews summarising previous 30 years research were conducted to determine the state of play Identified all studies used data from Defence Acquisition Executive Summary (DAES) Not publicly available Selected Acquisition Summary (SAR) Available but very high level detail and generally does not include final costs

10 EVM Available Data for Research Real Project Data - Ghent University Currently 51 unrelated Projects on database Cost and time information Valuable Contribution Projects do not represent a portfolio Revenue data not presented or provided

11 The Portfolio Data Set 18 Projects Completed as a Portfolio between $35.727M Final Budget $39.525M Final Revenue $33.799M Final Actual Cost 40,827 Individual Cost Records 2,326 Original Planned Project Days 4,323 Actual Project Days

12 Data Set Characteristics Total Projects 18 CPI 20% -ve variance > 10% 5 Over Budget 4 CPI 20% +ve variance > 10% 6 Under Budget 14 CPI has Worsening Trend 7 On time Completion 10 SPI (t) 20% -ve variance > 10% 6 Early Completion 0 SPI (t) 20% +ve variance > 10% 9 Late Completion 8 SPI (t) has Worsening Trend % 0.00% % CPI 20 & SPI(t) 20 Stability - P17 CPI(20%) SPI(T(20%)) % %

13 P17 PV EV AC %C CPI SPI ES SPI (t) EAC1 EAC2 EAC3 EAC (t) Revenue Apr ,234 41,854 30, % ,752,208 2,360,965 4,112, ,798 May , , , % ,982,449 2,313,982 2,573, ,205 Jun , , , % ,980,177 2,262,894 2,312, ,582 Jul ,289, , , % ,987,994 2,227,910 2,546, ,768 Aug ,529, , , % ,015,531 2,224,843 2,681, ,044,706 Sep ,713,168 1,312,374 1,099, % ,987,624 2,159,280 2,258, ,621,897 Oct ,963,699 1,590,629 1,427, % ,129,218 2,209,154 2,293, ,959,105 Nov ,371,900 1,893,625 1,728, % ,164,671 2,206,457 2,274, ,319,912 Dec ,371,900 2,017,201 1,866, % ,194,642 2,221,149 2,252, ,407,219 Jan ,371,900 2,110,333 1,921, % ,159,776 2,183,168 2,189, ,486,662 Feb ,371,900 2,185,724 1,957, % ,123,738 2,143,216 2,137, ,514,311 Mar ,371,900 2,371,900 2,037, % ,037,535 2,037,535 2,037, ,615,953

14 A Portfolio of Projects

15 Examples 20% Complete Using MAPE EAC Accuracy For data used from the start of a project: EAC = AC+(BAC-EV) performs best (11/18 occasions) From 20% Complete EAC = BAC/CPI performs best (8/18 occasions) Earned Schedule vs Earned Duration For data used from the start of a project: ES performs best (11/18 occasions) From 20% Complete ES & ED perform equally (9/18 occasions each)

16 Conclusion EVM & Project Management Research generally needs Real Project Data to Validate Hypotheses No Project Portfolio Data is currently Publically Available Paper addresses this gap in the Project Management Knowledge Base Dataset will be available from the Capability Systems Centre, UNSW website

17 THANK YOU QUESTIONS?