PMP. Preparation Training. Cost Management. Your key in Successful Project Management. Cost Management Processes. Chapter 7 6/7/2005

Transcription

1 PMP Preparation Training Your key in Successful Project Management Akram Al-Najjar, PMP Cost Management Processes Chapter 7 Cost Management Slide 2 1

2 AGENDA What is Cost Management? Cost Management Processes Some terms to be familiar with! How does the PMBoK Guide describe Cost Management? Discussion Slide 3 Project Cost Management Processes required to ensure the project is completed within the approved budget Resource Planning Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control Slide 4 2

3 5.1 Overall Processes Initiation Activity Sequencing 6.4 Scope Planning Activity Definition 6.3 Schedule Development 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource Planning Activity Duration 7.2 Cost Estimating 7.3 Cost Budgeting 4.1 Project Plan Development Contract Closeout Slide Performance Reporting 10.4 Project Plan Execution 4.3 Overall Change Control Administrative Akram Closure Al-Najjar, PMP. Planned Value (PV) Slide 6 3

4 Planned Value (PV) Slide 7 Planned Value (PV) Previously (and still in many places) called Budgeted Costs for Work Scheduled (BCWS). A monetary representation of how much work was scheduled to be done at a point in time. Example: After 4 months, we are scheduled to complete Activity 1 and 75% of Activity 2 which are budgeted for a total of $32,000. The total project budget is $100,000. The Planned Value at 4 months is $32,000. Slide 8 4

5 Actual works Slide 9 Earned Value (EV) Slide 10 5

6 Actual Costs (AC) Slide 11 Actual works Slide 12 6

7 Earned Value (EV) Previously (and still in many places) called Budgeted Costs for Work Performed (BCWP). A monetary representation of how much work has been completed, using the baseline cost for that work, at a point in time. Example: After 4 months, we have completed Activity 1 and 50% of activity 2. The budgeted cost for this work completed was $24,000. The total project budget is $100,000. The Earned Value at 4 months is $24,000. Slide 13 Actual Costs (AC) Previously (and still in many places) called Actual Costs for Work Performed (ACWP). The monetary representation of the costs incurred at a point in time, regardless of how much work has been done. Example: After 4 months, we have completed Activity 1 and 50% of activity 2. The project costs at this point in time are $29,000. The total project budget is $100,000. The Actual Cost at 4 months is $29,000. Slide 14 7

8 Schedule Variance (SV) New: SV = EV PV = $24,000 - $32,000 = ($8,000) Old: SV = BCWP - BCWS The project has delivered $8,000 less work at this point in time than was planned. This project is behind schedule. This is a great way to depict ahead or behind on schedule, even though it is in monetary terms!!! Slide 15 Cost Variance (CV) New: CV = EV AC = $24,000 - $29,000 = ($5,000) Old: CV = BCWP - ACWP Slide 16 The project has cost $5,000 more to deliver the work done so far than was planned. This project is over budget. 8

9 Schedule Performance Index (SPI) New: SPI = EV / PV = $24,000 / $32,000 = 0.75 Old: SPI = BCWP / BCWS The project is delivering work slower than planned. The work is being done at 75% of the expected rate. Slide 17 Cost Performance Index (CPI) New: CPI = EV / AC = $24,000 / $29,000 = 0.83 Old: CPI = BCWP / ACWP The project is spending money faster than planned. Only 83% of work is being delivered for the amount of money being spent. Slide 18 9

10 Case 1 PV = $ 1,860 EV = $ 1,860 AC = $ 1,860 This is the ideal situation, where everything goes according to plan. Slide 19 Case 2 PV = $ 1,900 AC = $ 1,700 In this Case, without Earned Value measurements, it appears we re in good shape. Expenditures are less than planned. Spending Variance = - $ 200 Slide 20 10

11 Case 2 PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700 But with EV measurements, we see...$400 worth of work is behind schedule in being completed; i.e., we are 21 percent behind where we planned to be. SV = EV PV = - $ 400 SV % = SV / PV x 100 = - 21 % Slide 21 Case 2 PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700 In addition, we can see... Actuals exceed Value Earned (EV), i.e., $1,500 worth of work was accomplished but it cost $1,700 to do so. We have a $200 cost overrun (i.e., 13% over budget). CV = EV AC = - $ 200 CV % = CV / EV x 100 = - 13 % Slide 22 11

12 Case 2 PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700 This means only 79 cents worth of work was done for each $1.00 worth of work planned to be done. And, only 88 cents worth of work was actually done for each $1.00 spent SPI = EV / PV = $ 0.79 CPI = EV / AC = $ 0.88 Slide 23 Case 2 PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700 This is the worst kind of scenario, where all performance indicators are negative. SV = - $ 400; SPI = 0.79 CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.88 Slide 24 12

13 Case 3 PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200 In this case there is bad news and good news. Slide 25 Case 3 PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200 The bad news is that our work efficiency is a bit low; we re getting only 92 cents of work done on the dollar. As a result, we are behind schedule. SPI = 0.92 SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 8 % Slide 26 13

14 Case 3 PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 The good news is that we re under-running our budget. We re getting $1.09 worth of work done for each $1.00 we re spending. AC = $ 2,200 CV = + $ 200; CV % = + 8 % CPI = 1.09 Slide 27 Budget At Completion (BAC) This is the baseline cost of the total project. How much we planned to spend by the time we finished. Example: After 4 months, we have completed Activity 1 and 50% of Activity 2 The project costs at this point in time are $29,000. The total project budget is $100,000. The Budget At Completion is $100,000. Slide 28 14

15 Estimate At Completion (EAC) Based on where we are now, how much will it cost when the project is done? The answer depends on whether your past performance is a good indicator of expected future performance more Slide 29 Estimate At Completion (EAC) (1 st of 3 methods) If we know that we can finish the rest of the work as it was originally planned Use actual to-date plus budgeted amount for the rest of the work EAC = AC + BAC EV = $29,000 + $100,000 - $24,000 = $105,000 Slide 30 15

16 Estimate At Completion (EAC) If the original estimates were flawed, we should build new estimates for all the remaining work ETC is the Estimate to Complete the remaining work. EAC (2 nd of 3 methods) = AC + ETC = $29,000 + $120,000 = $1,49,000 Assume this was the total ETC from a completely rebuilt estimate Slide 31 Estimate At Completion (EAC) (3 rd of 3 methods) If we assume that past performance is a good indicator of future performance Use actual to-date plus budgeted amount for the rest of the work, modified by a performance factor, such as CPI EAC = AC + ((BAC EV)/CPI) = $29,000 + (($100,000 - $24,000)/0.83) = $126,506 (rounded off) Slide 32 16

17 EVM Performance Measures Slide 33 EVM and Basic PM Questions Slide 34 17

18 Present Value Budgeting technique that debates the future value of money based on inflation, etc. PV = FV (1 + r) t FV = amount of money t years from now r = interest rate (also called discount rate ) t = time period Slide 35 Present Value Year FV PV 0 $50,000 $50,000 1 $35,000 $31,819 2 $15,000 $12,397 Assume a 10% interest (or discount) rate PV (Year 1) = FV / (1 + r) t =$35,000/( ) 1 = $31,819 Slide 36 18

19 (NPV) Net Present value This Means the total benefits (income or revenue) less the cost. To calculate NPV you need to calculate the present value of each of the income and revenue figures then add up the present values. Time Period Income or revenue Present Value at 10% interest rate Costs Present Value at 10% interest rate Total NPV = =62 Slide 37 Payback Period The exact length of time needed to recover an initial investment as calculated from cash inflows. Month Costs Total Cost Benefits Total Benefits 1 $5000 $5000 $0 $0 2 $5000 $10000 $0 $0 3 $8000 $18000 $0 $0 4 $5000 $23000 $5000 $ $2000 $25000 $10000 $ $0 $25000 $10000 $ $0 $25000 $10000 $35000 PAYBACK PERIOD is 6 MONTHS Slide 38 19

20 Internal Rate Of Return (IRR) The interest (discount) rate where the present value of the benefits exactly equals the costs. The higher the rate, the better the project. An IRR of.15 means that you expect the project to return an average of 15% on your investment over a given time period (usually a number of years). Slide 39 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) Compares the cost to the benefits of different projects. A BCR of > 1 means the benefits are grater than the costs. A BCR of < 1 means the costs are grater than the benefits. A BCR =1 means the costs and benefits are the same. If the BCR of project A is 2.3 and BCR of project B is 1.7 which project would you select? The answer is A. the project with the higher BCR Slide 40 20

21 Exercise Accounting Standards Net present V Project A $95.00 Project B $75.00 Which you Pick? A IRR 13% 17% B Payback Period 16 Month 21 Month A Benefit Cost Ratio A Slide 41 Types Of Costs VARIBLE COST Any costs that change with the amount of production or the amount of work. Examples include the cost of material supplies, and wages. Fixed Costs Nonrecurring costs that do not change as production changes. Examples include set up, rental. Etc.. Direct Costs- Cost that are directly attributable to the work on project. Examples are team travel, team wages, recognition and cost of material used on the project Indirect costs Overhead items or costs incurred for the benefit of more than one project. Examples include taxes, fringe benefits, and janitorial services. Slide 42 21

22 SUNK COST : Expended Cost You have a project with an initial budget of US $1,000,000 You are halfway through the project and have spent US $ 2,000,000. Do you consider the US $ 1,000,000 over budget when determining whether to continue the project? The answer is no! Be aware that accounting standards say that sunk costs should not be considered when deciding whether to continue with a troubled project Slide 43 DEPRECIATION STRAIGHT LINE DEPRECIATION : the same amount of depreciation is taken each year, A US $ 1,000 item with a ten year useful life and no salvage value (how much item is worth at the end of its life) would be depreciated at US $100 per year. ACCELERATED DEPRECIATION you only need to know: There are two forms of accelerated depreciation Double Declining Balance and Sum of the Years Digits. They depreciate faster than straight line. You do not have to know what these two forms means or do any calculations. Slide 44 22

23 LIFE CYCLE COSTING LIFE CYCLE COSTING : Means that the cost of operation and maintenance phase to be consider and manage with the project cost PROJECT OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE PHASE costs costs Slide 45 PMBOK Chapter 7 There are 4 major processes: 1. Resource Planning 2. Cost Estimating 3. Cost Budgeting 4. Cost Control Slide 46 23

24 Cost Management Planning Controlling 7.1 Resource Planning 7.2 Cost Estimating 7.3 Cost Budgeting 7.4 Cost Control Slide 47 Resource Planning Determining physical resources needed (i.e., material, equipment, and people) and what quantities of each should be used and when they would be needed to perform project activities Slide 48 24

25 Resource Planning Tools & Techniques Expert judgment Alternatives identification PM software Inputs Scope statement WBS Resource pool description Organizational policies Historical information Activity durations estimates Slide 49 Outputs Resource requirements Inputs Work breakdown structure (WBS) Identifies the project elements that require resources Historical information Used to identify the types of resources that were required for similar work on previous projects Scope statement Contains project justification and the project objectives, which need to be considered Resource pool description Description of resources available, if necessary, to work on a project Organizational policies Of the performing organization, regarding staffing and the rental and purchase of supplies and equipment Activity duration estimates Slide 50 25

26 Tools & Techniques Expert judgment Expertise, provided by any group or individual, used to assess the inputs to this process Other units within organization Consultants Professional and technical associations Industry groups Alternatives identification PM software Used to organize resource pools, define resource availabilities and rates, and define resource calendars Slide 51 Outputs Resource requirements Description of the types (e.g., skill levels) and numbers of resources required by each element of the WBS Slide 52 26

27 Cost Estimating Process of developing an approximation (or estimate) for the cost of the resources necessary to complete the project activities Difference between cost estimating and pricing: Cost estimating: Assessing how much it will cost the organization to provide the product or service Pricing: Assessing how much the organization will charge for the product or service Cost estimating also includes identifying and considering cost alternatives Slide 53 Cost Estimating Inputs WBS Resource requirements Resource rates Activity duration estimates Estimating publications Historical information Chart of accounts Risks Tools & Techniques Analogous estimating Parametric modeling Bottom-up estimating Computerized tools Other cost estimating methods Slide 54 Outputs Cost estimates Supporting detail Cost management plan 27

28 Inputs WBS Used to organize the cost estimates and to ensure that the cost of all identified work has been estimated Resource requirements Resource rates Unit rates for each resource Activity duration estimates Affects cost estimates if project budget includes an allowance for the cost of financing (i.e., interest) Chart of accounts Coding structure used by the organization to report financial information. Cost estimates must be assigned to the correct accounting category. Slide 55 Inputs (cont.) Historical information Information on the cost of resources Project files Records of previous project results that are detailed enough to aid in developing cost estimates Commercial cost-estimating databases Historical information available commercially Project team knowledge Estimating publications Commercially available data on cost estimating Risks Since risks can have a significant impact on cost, the effect of risk on the cost estimates for each activity must be considered Slide 56 28

29 Tools & Techniques Analogous estimating (Expert judgment) Used to estimate total project costs if there is a limited amount of detailed information Parametric modeling Using project characteristics (or parameters) in a mathematical model to predict costs (e.g., price per square foot) Bottom-up estimating Estimating the cost of individual work items and then rolling up the costs to arrive at a project total Computerized tools PM software and spreadsheets Slide 57 Outputs Cost estimates Quantitative assessments of the cost of resources (e.g., units of currency or staff hours) Types of estimates Order of magnitude (-25% / +75%) Budget estimate (-10% / +25%) Definitive estimate (-5% / +10%) Supporting detail Description of estimated scope of work Documentation of the basis for the estimate Documentation of any assumptions made Range of possible results Slide 58 29

30 Cost Estimating Outputs (cont.) Cost management plan Describes how cost variances will be managed Part of the overall project plan Slide 59 Cost Budgeting Allocating the overall cost estimate to individual activities or work packages, in order to establish a cost baseline for measuring project performance Slide 60 30

31 Cost Budgeting Tools & Techniques Cost-budgeting tools and techniques Inputs Cost estimates WBS Project schedule Risk management plan Outputs Cost baseline Slide 61 Inputs Cost estimates WBS Identifies the project elements to which the costs will be allocated Project schedule Used to assign costs to project elements for the time period when costs will be incurred Risk management plan Often includes cost contingency, which can be determined on the basis of the expected accuracy of the estimate Slide 62 31

32 Tools & Techniques Cost budgeting tools and techniques Analogous estimating Parametric modeling Bottom-up estimating Computerized tools Slide 63 Outputs Cost baseline Time phased budget that will be used to measure and monitor the cost performance of the project BCWS ($K) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Reporting Period Slide 64 32

33 Cost Control Influencing the factors that create changes to the cost baseline to ensure that changes are agreed upon Determining that the cost baseline has changed Managing the actual changes when and as they occur Includes: Monitoring cost performance to detect variances from the plan Ensuring that all appropriate changes are recorded Preventing incorrect, inappropriate, or unauthorized changes Informing the appropriate stakeholders of authorized changes Analyzing positive and negative variances and how they affect the other control processes Slide 65 Cost Control Tools & Techniques Cost change control system Performance measurement EVM Additional planning Computerized tools Inputs Cost baseline Performance reports Change requests Cost management plan Outputs Revised cost estimates Budget updates Corrective action Estimate at completion Project closeout Lessons learned Slide 66 33

34 Inputs Cost baseline Performance reports Information on cost performance Change requests Oral or written requests to change the budget Cost management plan Slide 67 Tools & Techniques Cost change control system Procedures used for making changes to the cost baseline Paperwork Tracking system Approval levels Performance measurement Assessment of the magnitude of any variation, the cause of the variance, and the corrective action needed Slide 68 34

35 Tools & Techniques (cont.) Additional planning Changes may require new or revised cost estimates or an analysis of alternative approaches Computerized tools Used for tracking the value of planned costs compared to actual costs and for predicting the effects of cost changes Earned Value Management Continuously measuring project performance by relating the planned value, the earned value for work accomplished, and the actual costs incurred Slide 69 Outputs Revised cost estimates Budget updates Corrective action Estimate at completion Forecast of most likely total project costs based on project performance and risk quantification Project closeout Processes and procedures for closing or ending a project Lessons learned Documented causes of variances Slide 70 35

36 Outputs Slide 71 Earned Value (EV) A method of measuring project performance by comparing the amount of work planned with that actually accomplished, in order to determine if cost and schedule performance are as planned Slide 72 36

37 Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) The plan against which actual performance can be compared Based on budgets assigned to scheduled segments of work Build PMB by summing the PV for all control accounts, by reporting period Budget at completion (BAC) Equal to the cumulative PV for the total project Slide 73 Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) Time-Phased Budget BCWS $K Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Reporting Period BAC Slide 74 37

38 Cost Control Planned Value (PV) Work schedule to be accomplished Performance Measurement Baseline 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY PV CURRENT BAC PV JANUARY 0 FEBRUARY 2500 MARCH 8000 APRIL MAY JUNE JULY Slide 75 Earned Value Budgeted value of completed or in-process work Performance Measurement Baseline EV PV CURRENT PV EV JANUARY 0 0 FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY Slide 76 38

39 Actual Costs (AC) Actual expenditures for completed or in- process work Performance Measurement Base CURRENT ACWP BCWS BC PV EV AC JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY Slide 77 Schedule Variance Comparing the EV, the amount originally budgeted for the work that has been completed or is inprocess, to the PV, the amount budgeted for the work that was planned to have been accomplished SV = EV PV A negative result means less work has been performed than was planned Slide 78 39

40 SV Example PV = $42,000 EV = $38,000 AC = $48,000 SV = EV PV = $38,000 $42,000 = - $4,000 SV% = SV / PV = - $4000 / $42,000 = = - 9.5% Slide 79 Cost Variance Comparing the amount originally budgeted for the work completed or in-process, the EV, to the actual costs of that work, the AC CV = EV AC A negative CV means more dollars were spent to accomplish the work than was planned Slide 80 40

41 Cost Variance Example PV = $42,000 EV = $38,000 AC = $48,000 CV = EV - AC = $38,000 $48,000 = - $10,000 CV% = CV / EV = - $10,000 / $38,000 = - 26% Slide 81 Performance Indices Dfn: Cost- and schedule-performance efficiency calculations; expressed in $ Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI = EV/AC Schedule Performance Index (SPI) SPI = EV/PV Slide 82 41

42 CPI Example PV = $42,000 EV = $38,000 AC = $48,000 CPI = EV / AC = $38,000 / $48,000 = 0.79 $0.79 worth of work was actually done for each $1.00 spent Slide 83 SPI Example PV = $42,000 EV = $38,000 AC = $48,000 SPI = EV / PV = $38,000 / $42,000 = 0.90 $0.90 worth of work has been done for each $1.00 worth of work that was planned to be done Slide 84 42

43 Estimate at Completion (EAC) Dfn: The management s assessment of the cost of the project at completion After variance analysis, the estimated cost at completion is determined Slide 85 EAC Example One methodology: EAC = BAC / CPI BAC = $80,000 CPI = 0.79 EAC = $80,000 / 0.79 = $101,265 Slide 86 43

44 Variance at Completion BAC = $80,000 EAC = $101,265 VAC = BAC EAC = $80,000 $101,265 = -$21,265 Based on past performance, project will exceed planned budget by $21,265 Slide 87 To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Work Remaining / Cost Remaining TCPI = (BAC EV) / (EAC AC) = ($ 80,000 $ 38,000) / ($ 101,265 $ 48,000) = $ 42,000 / $ 53,265 =.79 Slide 88 44

45 Earned Value Examples PV EV AC $1 $1 $1 On schedule On cost $2 $2 $1 On schedule Under cost $1 $1 $2 On schedule Over cost $1 $2 $2 Ahead of schedule On cost $1 $2 $3 Ahead of schedule Over cost $1 $2 $1 Ahead of schedule Under cost $3 $2 $1 Behind schedule Under cost $2 $1 $3 Behind schedule Over cost $2 $1 $1 Behind schedule On cost Slide 89 Example PV EV AC EAC BAC Slide 90 45

46 Sample Cost Problem BAC = $ 40k EV = $ 20k PV = $ 28k AC = $ 26k Calculate % of Work Scheduled % of Budget Spent % of Work Accomplished Cost Variance Schedule Variance Slide 91 Sample Solution Calculate % of Work Scheduled PV / BAC = $ 28K / $ 40K = 70 % % of Budget Spent AC / BAC = $ 26K / $ 40K = 65 % % of Work Accomplished EV / BAC = $ 20K / $ 40K = 50 % Cost Variance EV AC = $ 20K $ 26K = - $ 6K Schedule Variance EV PV = $ 20K $ 28K = - $ 8K Slide 92 46

47 Discussion Summary Any questions before we take a 10 minute break? Slide 93 47