ECONOMIC DIGEST THE CONNECTICUT. State Housing Market Continued its Recovery in 2013 By Kolie Sun, Senior Research Analyst, DECD JULY 2014

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1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.19 No.7 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development JULY 2014 IN THIS ISSUE... State Housing Market Continued its Recovery in ,5 75 years of state monthly nonfarm employment statistics Economic Indicators on the Overall Economy... 5 Individual Data Items Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Help Wanted OnLine Business and Employment Changes Announced in the News Media Labor Market Areas: Nonfarm Employment Sea. Adj. Nonfarm Employment...14 Labor Force Hours and Earnings Cities and Towns: Labor Force Housing Permits Technical Notes At a Glance In May... Nonfarm Employment Connecticut... 1,665,500 Change over month % Change over year % State Housing Market Continued its Recovery in 2013 By Kolie Sun, Senior Research Analyst, DECD C onnecticut s housing market continued on the path to recovery in 2013 with many economic indicators posting strong gains over the prior year. In this article, we will examine the state s housing industry and factors that led to stronger housing performance in 2013, most notably permits rising to pre-recession levels. Housing Production According to the recent release from the U.S. Census, Connecticut cities and towns authorized 5,424 new housing units including single and multi-family homes in 2013, the highest level since This level of production represents a 16.2 percent increase compared to 4,669 in 2012 and a 3.9 percent 30,000 25,000 20,000 increase compared to 5,220 in (See chart below) In 2013, Fairfield County had the most permit activity with 2,501 new housing units authorized which accounted for nearly half of the statewide total. Windham County had the fewest with 99. The City of Stamford led all municipalities with 801 units authorized, followed by Danbury with 310, Stratford with 270, Milford with 189 and Norwalk with 187. The combined permits issued for these five communities accounted for nearly one-third of last year s total housing production. In early spring, the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) surveyed demolition activity from each municipality. One hundred CT Housing Units Authorized, United States ,463,000 Change over month % Change over year % 15,000 Unemployment Rate Connecticut % United States % Consumer Price Index United States Change over year % 10,000 5,

2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The annual subscription is $50. Send subscription requests to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT Make checks payable to the Connecticut Department of Labor. Back issues are $4 per copy. The Digest can be accessed free of charge from the DOL Web site. Articles from The Connecticut Economic Digest may be reprinted if the source is credited. Please send copies of the reprinted material to the Managing Editor. The views expressed by the authors are theirs alone and may not reflect those of the DOL or DECD. Managing Editor: Jungmin Charles Joo Associate Editor: Sarah C. Pilipaitis We would like to acknowledge the contributions of many DOL Research and DECD staff and Rob Damroth to the publication of the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor Sharon Palmer, Commissioner Dennis Murphy, Deputy Commissioner Andrew Condon, Ph.D., Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) dol.econdigest@ct.gov Website: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development Catherine Smith, Commissioner Ronald Angelo, Deputy Commissioner Christopher Bergstrom, Deputy Commissioner 505 Hudson Street Hartford, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) decd@ct.gov Website: and thirty-one cities and towns responded to the survey, an 80.5 percent response rate. In 2013, municipalities authorized 1,397 demolished housing units. The Cities of Hartford and New Britain issued the most demolition permits with 176 and 171. Greenwich and Westport tied at 106 and ranked third. The combined demolition units of Hartford and Fairfield counties accounted for almost three quarters of total demolition permits issued. Overall, the nation experienced a 19.4 percent increase in housing permit authorizations, with the New England states having 23.9 percent growth from 2012 to However, four states Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia had a percentage decrease. Connecticut ranked 28 th. Home Sales and Prices With an improved economy, higher consumer confidence and record-low mortgage rates in 2013, the Connecticut real estate market had a stronger showing in home sales and prices. According to the Warren Group, the number of single family home sales in the state rose 6.5 percent from 24,276 in 2012 to 25,859 in Last year s sales were the highest since Condominiums had a higher percentage of sales (10.5 percent) during the same period. In addition, the median single family home sales prices grew 7.9 percent from $240,000 in 2012 to $259,000 in 2013, as reported by the Warren Group. Although it is the largest year-over-year percentage gain in nearly a decade, it is still 12.2 percent lower than the peak median home prices of $295,000 in The condo median home sale prices grew at a slower pace of 4.5 percent during the same time period. The improvement in home sales and homebuilding activity had helped boost builders confidence that is measured by the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (HMI). 1 Last August the HMI was the highest reading since November Housing Affordability Housing affordability is generally defined as paying no more than 30 percent of household income for housing costs, including mortgages, property taxes and insurance. Based on American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates, 36.2 percent of state s households spend more than 30 percent of their household income on housing costs. According to a National Low Income Housing Coalition report 2 in 2013, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) in Connecticut for a twobedroom apartment was $1,208. In order to afford this level of rent and utilities without paying more than 30 percent of income on housing, a household must earn $4,025 a month or $48,304 annually. Assuming a 40-hour work week, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into a housing hourly wage rate of $ Or a household needs 2.8 full-time minimum wage earners in order to make the two-bedroom FMR affordable. The same report showed Hawaii had the highest two-bedroom housing hourly wage of $32.14, followed by California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Stamford-Norwalk HMFA 3 led the state with housing wage of $31.69 compared to that of Waterbury HMFA with $18.12, which was the lowest. CTfastrak and Housing CTfastrak is a 9.4-mile Bus Rapid Transit system that will provide fast and reliable services for travelers in central Connecticut. CTfastrak will have 11 stations and serve major employers on a dedicated corridor and nearby destinations will be served by feeder routes extending from Hartford to New Britain. It is scheduled to open for passenger service in early CTfastrak is a classic example of transit-oriented development that will create a vibrant mix of housing, retail and commercial -continued on page 5-2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

3 75 years of state monthly nonfarm employment statistics By Lincoln S. Dyer, Economist, DOL I n the beginning State and national nonfarm industry employment statistics officially begin their time-series in 1939 just before the start of World War II. More expanded reports on state and national employment, however, were already being called for by the late 1800 s because of rapid industrialization, and during the Great Depression for more national economic planning to emerge from that lasting downturn. By 1940, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) moved to consolidate much of the work already being performed by federal statistical agencies, cooperating state research bureaus, and statistical and industrial societies for war planning purposes before WWII and began producing a national nonagricultural employment series for all 48 states, just as the US was preparing for war. This may have facilitated the redirection and awareness of industrial planning during and after Thousands of Jobs Jan-39 CHART 1. Connecticut Nonfarm Employment (1939-May 2014, NSA) 11 employment growth cycles and 10 year moving average (120-month) 1 2 Jan-43 Jan-47 3 Jan-51 4 Jan-55 Jan-59 5 Jan-63 Jan-67 6 Jan-71 Jan-75 the second world war across the country especially as the GI s returned home looking for jobs ready with pent-up demand. (Most of the state data development, firm sampling, and nonfarm employment estimation work were performed in each individual state from about 1947 until recently States still are a big part of the process.) Update to We now have seventy-five years of unadjusted monthly state and national nonfarm industry employment statistics with the last 25 years or so that includes seasonally adjusted data (Connecticut can go back with spliced seasonally adjusted data to 1982). At the state level, nonfarm job counts have become the mosttimely, accurate (benchmarked), and one of the longest running economic time series assessing the real-time health of the individual states in relation to the nation that shows a true business/employment cycle. While GDP Gross Domestic Product addresses the nation s and 7 Jan-79 8 Jan-83 Jan-87 Jan-91 Jan-95 9 Jan-99 Jan Jan-07 Jan-11 state s domestic output only on a quarterly basis, monthly nonfarm employment tracks the most important and determinant facet of economic well being, incomeproducing jobs. A true economic recovery is jobs. State unemployment rate statistics only go back to 1976 (unadjusted) and are not truly benchmarked and are subject to large sampling error. State quarterly GDP only goes back to 1963 and is often very volatile with large revisions and leakages. One economic statistic at the state level that does go back farther is personal income PI (dating to 1929). Personal income is measured only quarterly with a long lag but PI can be a rough proxy to output in National Income and Product Accounting (NIPA) schemes. However, PI does not seem to catch the apparent coincident business/ employment cycle as well as nonfarm employment does in a timely manner. Looking at Connecticut s nonfarm jobs monthly history until now, one can discern about 11 clear up employment cycles since These job cycles are especially evident since the late 1980 s moderation of employment growth. This slowing of employment growth in the state seems to coincide with the ending of the Cold War (1990 s Peace Dividend) and the peaking of the rate of growth of woman participation in the labor force Job Cross (nod to Shiller) Connecticut nonfarm employment growth since 1989 has been modest and yet still very correlated with the overall US employment cycle. The data show that the current slow growth across the nation has been apparent in Connecticut for over 25 years now. Starting at the beginning of 2014, we have seen current Connecticut short-term nonfarm employment growth trend levels (specifically the THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 12-month moving average of nonfarm employment) exceed the longer 10 year nonfarm growth pattern level (as represented by the 120-month moving average). This applies to both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted time series (in the 2 nd chart we used seasonally adjusted data). Dr. Robert Shiller, the recent economics Nobel Prize co-winner and a behavioral economist residing in our state (New Haven Yale), used a longer term 10-year averaging of aggregated quarterly corporate earnings to assess the longer term valuation and hence future potential direction of the stock market (aka CAPE Ratio, cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which averages corporate profits in relation to stock price over ten years). Here we do a similar basic analysis by simply running an averaged short-run level of nonfarm jobs (12-month moving average) against a Shiller-like longer 10 year trend level (120-month) average of nonfarm employment. The longer 10 year average (120- month) may represent the state s current average longer run carrying capacity level for jobs. Or it could be thought of as a more recent normalized level for Connecticut s nonfarm employment within the inherent political structure (state lines) and taking into consideration density (geography), demand for money (interest rates), demographics (people), and even destiny (industry-mix). It is notable that this longer (10 year, 120-month) month trend level of nonfarm employment in the state is starting to turn up and at the beginning of this year, the current shorter term (1 year, 12-month) trend level of nonfarm employment actually crossed above this improving longer term trend level of Connecticut nonfarm jobs. This is inferring our current shorter term employment prospects are outperforming or exceeding our state s recent longer term employment trend levels (10 year). Perhaps some of the longer term down ward job prospects in the state over the last decade are slowly being alleviated and readjusted to as the younger generations get their footing and eventual opportunity in the slowly recuperating job market. Back to the future Pent up demand? There is no denying the Great Recession employment recovery in the state has been slower than some expected but no slower than the 1990 s job recovery pace or the rebound from the 2k technology bust. Our experience from the 1990 s shows that slower employment recoveries can end up lasting longer ( ). This can happen especially as the readjustments in the economy are often offsetting and worrisome in the short term but are reinforcing in the longer term. Secular shifts, like the internet emergence in the 1990 s, always happen with uncertainty. And new foundations for future growth are always uncertain. And like after WWII, society s pent-up demand from the war and from the Great Depression seemed to overcome the fears of falling back into another major depression immediately after the war s end. Today it seems apparent in some ways that pent-up demand is building from the very large millennial generation and others who are waiting out this slow recovery to fully act and maybe the rising 10-1 job cross is supporting this CHART 2. Connecticut Nonfarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) 12-month (1 yr) moving average / 10 yr (120-month) moving average Job Cross Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jobs in Thousands Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan month (1 yr) MA 120-month (10 yr) MA CT s Distinct Employment Cycle 1990-Present 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

5 OCCUPATIONAL -continued from page PROFILE: 2- Physician Assistants uses in the half-mile radius surrounding the stations. CTfastrak enables riders the access to employment, education, cultural, and other destinations. It spurs economic growth along its corridor, and provides an important boost to the regional economy. The knowledge corridor which runs from New Haven to Springfield and encompasses CTfastrak, also provides housing opportunities. It is estimated that the region has the opportunity to build 9,000 to 12,000 more housing units near transit representing 15 to 20 percent of all new households to meet the growing demand for those attracted to a walkable, urban lifestyle, according to the Making It Happen report. 5 Recently, Governor Malloy announced a creation of a transitoriented development fund to encourage development in the CTfastrak and future New Haven- Hartford-Springfield rail towns. And organizations such as Young Energetic Solutions (YES) are promoting these types of transit and neighborhoods. 6 Conclusion Earlier this year, FannieMae predicted the U.S. economy in 2014 would start slow, but increase in strength with an estimated GDP annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. There are two major contributing factors to this expected economic growth: Consumer spending will rise from an estimated 1.6 percent in 2013 to about 2.0 percent in 2014; and the housing contribution to GDP growth is expected to double from 0.3 percent in 2013 to 0.6 percent in Looking back at some 2013 data can give us an idea about the year ahead. Solid housing growth (as evidenced by increased housing permits), stronger home sales, increasing home values, and improved builder confidence point to even better performance this year. Initial permit activity through April, up 15 percent from 2013 levels, and higher singlefamily home sales through the first quarter are indicators that the housing market will continue its upward trend in HMI scores range from 1 to 100, with 1 being the worst and 100 the best. HMI was 58 in August National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach HMFA=HUD Metro FMR Area. This term indicates that a portion of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defined core-based statistical area is in the area to which the income limits and FMRs apply. HUD is required by OMB to alter the name of the metropolitan geographic entities it derives from the Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) when the geography is not the same as that established by OMB. CBSA is a collective term meaning both metro and micro areas. 4 Making It Happen: Opportunity and Strategies for Transit-Oriented Development in the Knowledge Corridor, September 13, 2013, Center for Transit-Oriented Development and Jonathan Rose Companies Ibid. 6 Op-Ed: CTfastrak brings chance to re-create our downtowns, Christine Schilke, The CT Mirror, 7 FannieMae, Doug Duncan, Orawin T. Velz, and Brian Hughes-Cromwick, Economic and Strategic Research, 2014: Private Forces Move to the Fore, January 10, emma/pdf/economic_summary_ pdf GENERAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1Q 1Q CHANGE 4Q (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2013 General Drift Indicator (1986=100)* Leading Coincident Farmington Bank Business Barometer (1992=100)** Philadelphia Fed's Coincident Index (July 1992=100)*** MAY MAY APR (Seasonally adjusted) Connecticut United States Sources: *The Connecticut Economy, University of Connecticut **Farmington Bank ***Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia The Connecticut Economy's General Drift Indicators are composite measures of the four-quarter change in three coincident (Connecticut Manufacturing Production Index, nonfarm employment, and real personal income) and four leading (housing permits, manufacturing average weekly hours, Hartford help-wanted advertising, and initial unemployment claims) economic variables, and are indexed so 1986 = 100. The Farmington Bank Business Barometer is a measure of overall economic growth in the state of Connecticut that is derived from non-manufacturing employment, real disposable personal income, and manufacturing production. The Philadelphia Fed s Coincident Index summarizes current economic condition by using four coincident variables: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Total nonfarm employment increased over the year. Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased from a year ago. The production worker weekly earnings fell over the year. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,659.7 Natural Res & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government* Source: Connecticut Department of Labor * Includes Native American tribal government employment UNEMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2014 Unemployment Rate, resident (%) Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,868.6 Employed (000s) 1, , ,740.1 Unemployed (000s) Average Weekly Initial Claims 4,150 4, ,412 Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Q2014 1Q2013 4Q2013 U-6 Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY MAR (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % Production Worker Avg Weekly Hours Prod. Worker Avg Hourly Earnings Prod. Worker Avg Weekly Earnings CT Mfg. Production Index (2005=100) Production Worker Hours (000s) 3,899 4, , Industrial Electricity Sales (mil kwh)* Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Department of Energy *Latest two months are forecasted. Personal income for fourth quarter 2014 is forecasted to increase 3.5 percent from a year earlier. INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) 4Q* 4Q CHANGE 3Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 2014 Personal Income $229,172 $221,452 7, $227,214 UI Covered Wages $103,317 $101,798 1, $103,366 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor 6 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG New Housing Permits* MAY ,749 2, Electricity Sales (mil kwh) APR , ,359 9, Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) MAY New Auto Registrations MAY , ,110 79, Air Cargo Tons (000s) MAY 2014 NA NA NA NA NA Exports (Bil. $) 1Q S&P 500: Monthly Close MAY , New auto registrations fell over the year. STATE Sources: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports * Estimated by the Bureau of the Census BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MO/QTR LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG STARTS Secretary of the State APR , ,803 8, Department of Labor 4Q2013 1, ,492 7, TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State APR ,229 3, Department of Labor 4Q2013 2, ,831 8, Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State; Connecticut Department of Labor Net business formation, as measured by starts minus stops registered with the Secretary of the State, was up over the year. STATE REVENUES YEAR TO DATE MAY MAY % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG TOTAL ALL REVENUES* , , Corporate Tax Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , , Indian Gaming Payments** Total all revenues were down from a year ago. Sources: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; Division of Special Revenue *Includes all sources of revenue; Only selected sources are displayed; Most July receipts are credited to the prior fiscal year and are not shown. **See page 23 for explanation. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG Info Center Visitors MAY , ,778 52, Major Attraction Visitors MAY , , , Air Passenger Count MAY 2014 NA NA NA NA NA Indian Gaming Slots (Mil.$)* MAY , , , Travel and Tourism Index** 1Q Indian gaming slots fell over the year. Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism; Division of Special Revenue *See page 23 for explanation **The Connecticut Economy, University of Connecticut THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Compensation cost for the nation rose 1.7 percent over the year. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers MAR DEC 3-Mo MAR MAR 12-Mo (Dec = 100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. inflation rate increased 2.1 percent over the year. CONSUMER NEWS % CHANGE (Not seasonally adjusted) MO/QTR LEVEL Y/Y P/P* CONSUMER PRICES CPI-U ( =100) U.S. City Average MAY Purchasing Power of $ ( =$1.00) MAY Northeast Region MAY NY-Northern NJ-Long Island MAY Boston-Brockton-Nashua** MAY CPI-W ( =100) U.S. City Average MAY Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board *Change over prior monthly or quarterly period **The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Conventional mortgage rate fell to 4.19 percent over the month. INTEREST RATES MAY APR MAY (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2014 Connecticut 1, , ,659.7 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,395.5 New Hampshire New Jersey 3, , ,936.1 New York 9, , ,988.0 Pennsylvania 5, , ,770.2 Rhode Island Vermont United States 138, , , ,246.0 Eight of nine states in the region gained jobs over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2014 Connecticut 1, , ,868.6 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,505.6 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,482.8 New York 9, , ,628.1 Pennsylvania 6, , ,443.2 Rhode Island Vermont United States 155, , ,421.0 Five states posted increases in the labor force from last year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics UNEMPLOYMENT RATES MAY MAY APR (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 2014 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States All nine states showed a decrease in its unemployment rate over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,740 1,700 1,660 1,620 1,580 1,540 1, Jan 1, , ,652.6 Feb 1, , ,654.0 Mar 1, , ,658.0 Apr 1, , ,659.7 May 1, , ,665.5 Jun 1, ,662.1 Jul 1, ,661.1 Aug 1, ,659.7 Sep 1, ,653.1 Oct 1, ,658.8 Nov 1, ,661.4 Dec 1, ,663.5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Percent Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,940 1,900 1,860 1,820 1,780 1,740 1, Jan 1, , ,852.2 Feb 1, , ,857.9 Mar 1, , ,864.8 Apr 1, , ,868.6 May 1, , ,877.7 Jun 1, ,862.3 Jul 1, ,859.7 Aug 1, ,856.8 Sep 1, ,853.7 Oct 1, ,850.6 Nov 1, ,847.9 Dec 1, ,845.8 AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS (Seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, Jan 4,953 4,884 4,442 Feb 4,547 4,669 3,775 Mar 4,979 4,452 4,089 Apr 4,789 4,823 4,412 May 4,958 4,672 4,150 Jun 5,312 4,602 Jul 4,787 5,220 Aug 4,959 4,585 Sep 4,878 4,598 Oct 4,832 4,805 Nov 7,601 4,786 Dec 4,824 5, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS STATE REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Jan $11.17 $9.97 $9.35 Feb $11.07 $9.83 $ Mar $11.00 $9.72 $ Apr $10.94 $9.67 $ May $10.70 $9.52 $ Jun $10.61 $ Jul $10.53 $ Aug $10.37 $9.22 Sep $10.22 $ Oct $10.11 $ Nov $10.16 $ Dec $10.05 $ Dollars AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CT MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION INDEX (NSA, 12 MMA) Month = Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SECRETARY OF STATE'S NET BUSINESS STARTS (NSA, 12 MMA) Month ,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, Jan 1,137 1, Feb 1,175 1, Mar 1,190 1, Apr 1,197 1, May 1,205 1,198 Jun 1,208 1,199 Jul 1,229 1,117 Aug 1,237 1,010 Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1, Dec 1, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 1,677,500 1,664,700 12, ,662,300 TOTAL PRIVATE 1,438,600 1,421,600 17, ,423,100 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 219, , ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 57,200 55,300 1, ,300 MANUFACTURING 162, ,100-1, ,600 Durable Goods 124, ,800-3, ,000 Fabricated Metal 30,500 30, ,300 Machinery 14,000 14, ,000 Computer and Electronic Product 12,200 13, ,200 Transportation Equipment ,900 41, ,900 Aerospace Product and Parts 27,900 29,100-1, ,100 Non-Durable Goods 37,800 36,300 1, ,600 Chemical 11,400 11, ,400 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 1,457,700 1,445,300 12, ,445,400 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 303, ,900 5, ,600 Wholesale Trade 64,900 63,300 1, ,200 Retail Trade 183, ,400 1, ,100 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 20,700 20, ,600 Building Material 16,800 16, ,200 Food and Beverage Stores 45,000 43,700 1, ,900 General Merchandise Stores 27,400 27, ,400 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 54,900 52,200 2, ,300 Utilities 7,500 7, ,500 Transportation and Warehousing 47,400 44,700 2, ,800 INFORMATION 31,400 32, ,400 Telecommunications 9,300 9, ,300 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 129, ,900-1, ,800 Finance and Insurance 110, ,900-1, ,800 Credit Intermediation 26,500 26, ,700 Securities and Commodity Contracts 25,200 25, ,500 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 59,100 59, ,600 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 19,000 19, ,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 208, ,500 2, ,700 Professional, Scientific 89,900 89, ,400 Legal Services 13,000 13, ,900 Computer Systems Design 23,000 23, ,900 Management of Companies 29,200 29, ,100 Administrative and Support 89,300 86,700 2, ,200 Employment Services 27,500 28, ,000 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 327, ,700 5, ,800 Educational Services 63,900 62,300 1, ,000 Health Care and Social Assistance 263, ,400 4, ,800 Hospitals 61,500 61, ,000 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 62,400 61, ,400 Social Assistance 52,500 51,200 1, ,700 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 155, ,700 3, ,100 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 26,300 27,500-1, ,900 Accommodation and Food Services 129, ,200 4, ,200 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 117, ,500 5, ,000 OTHER SERVICES 62,900 62, ,800 GOVERNMENT 238, ,100-4, ,200 Federal Government 17,300 17, ,400 State Government. 64,500 67,800-3, ,300 Local Government** 157, ,100-1, ,500 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 12 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA BRIDGEPORT - STAMFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 421, ,500 8, ,500 TOTAL PRIVATE 374, ,300 8, ,200 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 46,600 45, ,700 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 12,200 12, ,800 MANUFACTURING 34,400 33, ,900 Durable Goods 24,500 25, ,400 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 374, ,700 8, ,800 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 73,200 71,800 1, ,600 Wholesale Trade 13,700 13, ,600 Retail Trade 48,200 47, ,900 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 11,300 10, ,100 INFORMATION 12,100 11, ,000 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 41,100 41, ,400 Finance and Insurance 34,400 35,400-1, ,700 Credit Intermediation 10,000 10, ,000 Securities and Commodity Contracts 17,100 18, ,300 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 70,300 67,300 3, ,400 Professional, Scientific 28,800 29, ,200 Administrative and Support 28,600 25,200 3, ,500 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 72,200 70,600 1, ,900 Health Care and Social Assistance 60,800 59,400 1, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 41,500 40,400 1, ,000 Accommodation and Food Services 32,300 30,400 1, ,200 OTHER SERVICES 17,600 17, ,200 GOVERNMENT 46,700 46, ,300 Federal 2,500 2, ,500 State & Local 44,200 43, ,800 DANBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 69,300 69, ,800 TOTAL PRIVATE 60,400 60, ,900 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 11,700 11, ,700 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 57,600 57, ,100 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 15,800 15, ,700 Retail Trade 11,700 11, ,500 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 7,700 7, ,600 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 6,700 6, ,400 GOVERNMENT 8,900 8, ,900 Federal State & Local 8,300 8, ,300 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES HARTFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 555, ,500 4, ,200 TOTAL PRIVATE 472, ,900 5, ,700 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 75,100 75, ,400 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 19,400 18, ,300 MANUFACTURING 55,700 56,800-1, ,100 Durable Goods 46,100 47,400-1, ,600 Non-Durable Goods 9,600 9, ,500 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 480, ,000 5, ,800 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 90,200 88,500 1, ,800 Wholesale Trade 18,100 18, ,000 Retail Trade 54,900 54, ,100 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 17,200 16,200 1, ,700 Transportation and Warehousing 14,500 13,400 1, ,000 INFORMATION 11,000 11, ,000 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 58,700 59, ,000 Depository Credit Institutions 6,200 6, ,300 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 38,400 39,500-1, ,500 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 64,900 64, ,300 Professional, Scientific 31,000 30, ,000 Management of Companies 7,500 7, ,500 Administrative and Support 26,400 26, ,800 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 102, ,000 2, ,600 Educational Services 14,000 13, ,900 Health Care and Social Assistance 88,100 86,300 1, ,700 Ambulatory Health Care 28,200 27, ,900 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 49,000 47,600 1, ,400 Accommodation and Food Services 40,500 39,000 1, ,500 OTHER SERVICES 21,400 21, ,200 GOVERNMENT 82,800 83, ,500 Federal 5,200 5, ,100 State & Local 77,600 78,600-1, ,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Seasonally Adjusted Labor Market Areas NO. % 2014 BRIDGEPORT-STAMFORD LMA 417, ,600 6, ,500 DANBURY LMA. 68,800 69, ,100 HARTFORD LMA. 555, ,300 6, ,900 NEW HAVEN LMA 278, ,700 4, ,700 NORWICH-NEW LONDON LMA 126, ,800-1, ,600 WATERBURY LMA 64,700 64, ,300 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA NEW HAVEN LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 280, ,500 4, ,800 TOTAL PRIVATE 246, ,900 4, ,000 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 35,300 34, ,600 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 9,800 9, ,300 MANUFACTURING 25,500 25, ,300 Durable Goods 18,700 18, ,600 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 245, ,700 3, ,200 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 51,300 50, ,700 Wholesale Trade 11,200 11, ,100 Retail Trade 29,400 29, ,200 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 10,700 10, ,400 INFORMATION 4,000 4, ,100 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 12,200 12, ,200 Finance and Insurance 8,800 8, ,800 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 27,600 28, ,000 Administrative and Support 14,300 14, ,900 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 79,400 77,200 2, ,700 Educational Services 28,900 28, ,400 Health Care and Social Assistance 50,500 48,800 1, ,300 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 25,700 24,000 1, ,300 Accommodation and Food Services 21,900 20,500 1, ,100 OTHER SERVICES 10,500 10, ,400 GOVERNMENT 34,700 34, ,800 Federal 4,700 4, ,800 State & Local 30,000 29, ,000 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Value less than 50 HELP WANTED ONLINE CT Online Labor Demand Fell 1,500 in May The Conference Board s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) data reported that there were 66,300 advertisements for Connecticutbased jobs in May 2014, a 2.2 percent decrease over the month and a 2.0 percent increase over the year. There were 3.55 advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in Connecticut s labor force, lower than a month ago but higher than a year ago. Hartford s labor demand rate of 4.45 was also lower than a month ago but higher than a year ago. Nationally, it was 3.16 percent. Among the New England states, Massachusetts had the highest vacancy rate, while Vermont had the lowest vacancy rate in May. MAY MAY APR (Seasonally adjusted) CT Vacancies (000s) Hartford Vac. (000s) Labor Demand Rate * Connecticut Hartford United States Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont * A percent of advertised vacancies per 100 persons in labor force Source: The Conference Board The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series (HWOL) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month for over 16,000 Internet job boards, corporate boards and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas. Background information and technical notes and discussion of revisions to the series are available at: THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NORWICH - NEW LONDON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 127, ,100-2, ,600 TOTAL PRIVATE 95,200 95, ,400 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 18,500 18, ,600 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 3,800 3, ,000 MANUFACTURING 14,700 14, ,600 Durable Goods 11,600 11, ,500 Non-Durable Goods 3,100 3, ,100 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 108, ,800-2, ,000 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 22,400 22, ,900 Wholesale Trade 2,600 2, ,500 Retail Trade 15,200 15, ,100 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 4,600 4, ,300 INFORMATION 1,200 1, ,200 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 3,000 3, ,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 8,700 8, ,300 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 21,000 21, ,100 Health Care and Social Assistance 18,700 18, ,500 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 16,900 16, ,900 Accommodation and Food Services 13,700 13, ,100 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 11,500 11, ,000 OTHER SERVICES 3,500 3, ,400 GOVERNMENT 31,900 33,900-2, ,200 Federal 2,500 2, ,500 State & Local** 29,400 31,400-2, ,700 WATERBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 64,900 64, ,100 TOTAL PRIVATE 55,300 54, ,400 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 9,800 10, ,500 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 2,400 2, ,100 MANUFACTURING 7,400 7, ,400 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 55,100 54, ,600 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 12,900 12, ,800 Wholesale Trade 2,200 2, ,200 Retail Trade 8,800 8, ,800 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 1,900 1, ,800 INFORMATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 2,000 2, ,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 4,900 4, ,800 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 16,400 16, ,500 Health Care and Social Assistance 14,900 14, ,800 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 6,200 5, ,700 OTHER SERVICES 2,500 2, ,500 GOVERNMENT 9,600 10, ,700 Federal State & Local 9,200 9, ,300 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA SMALLER LMAS Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ENFIELD LMA 44,800 44, ,200 TORRINGTON LMA 36,800 36, ,400 WILLIMANTIC - DANIELSON LMA 38,300 37, ,800 NOTE: More industry detail data is available for the State and its nine labor market areas at: The data published there differ from the data in the preceding tables in that they are developed from a near-universe count of Connecticut employment covered by the unemployment insurance (UI) program, while the data here is sample-based. The data drawn from the UI program does not contain estimates of employment not covered by unemployment insurance, and is lagged several months behind the current employment estimates presented here. For further information on these nonfarm employment estimates contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) SPRINGFIELD, MA-CT NECTA** Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2014 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 300, ,100 4, ,600 TOTAL PRIVATE 250, ,200 3, ,000 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 41,400 41, ,400 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 10,400 10, ,500 MANUFACTURING 31,000 31, ,900 Durable Goods 20,900 20, ,800 Non-Durable Goods 10,100 10, ,100 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 259, ,800 4, ,200 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 58,900 57,800 1, ,000 Wholesale Trade 11,200 11, ,200 Retail Trade 35,200 34,200 1, ,600 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 12,500 12, ,200 INFORMATION 4,000 3, ,900 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 14,700 14, ,600 Finance and Insurance 11,800 11, ,800 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 7,500 7, ,500 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 24,800 24, ,100 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 67,800 66,200 1, ,000 Educational Services 10,900 10, ,800 Health Care and Social Assistance 56,900 55,700 1, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 29,000 28, ,700 OTHER SERVICES 9,400 9, ,300 GOVERNMENT 50,900 49,900 1, ,600 Federal 5,900 5, ,800 State & Local 45,000 44, ,800 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. ** New England City and Town Area THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 LMA LABOR FORCE ESTIMATES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) STATUS NO. % 2014 CONNECTICUT Civilian Labor Force 1,887,800 1,868,100 19, ,851,400 Employed 1,757,200 1,723,500 33, ,728,800 Unemployed 130, ,700-14, ,600 Unemployment Rate BRIDGEPORT - STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 484, ,400 9, ,300 Employed 453, ,900 12, ,100 Unemployed 31,400 34,500-3, ,200 Unemployment Rate DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 92,600 92, ,800 Employed 87,500 86,500 1, ,000 Unemployed 5,100 5, ,800 Unemployment Rate ENFIELD LMA Civilian Labor Force 50,700 50, ,800 Employed 47,600 46,500 1, ,700 Unemployed 3,100 3, ,000 Unemployment Rate HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 594, ,200 5, ,400 Employed 553, ,400 9, ,500 Unemployed 41,300 45,800-4, ,800 Unemployment Rate NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 318, ,500 4, ,800 Employed 295, ,300 6, ,500 Unemployed 22,900 25,200-2, ,300 Unemployment Rate NORWICH - NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 145, ,000-1, ,200 Employed 134, , ,500 Unemployed 10,400 11,700-1, ,700 Unemployment Rate TORRINGTON LMA Civilian Labor Force 54,200 54, ,400 Employed 50,900 50, ,100 Unemployed 3,400 3, ,300 Unemployment Rate WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 101, , ,300 Employed 92,100 90,400 1, ,300 Unemployed 9,300 10,300-1, ,000 Unemployment Rate WILLIMANTIC-DANIELSON LMA Civilian Labor Force 58,200 57, ,000 Employed 53,800 52,700 1, ,700 Unemployed 4,500 5, ,300 Unemployment Rate UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 155,841, ,734, , ,845,000 Employed 146,398, ,432,000 1,966, ,767,000 Unemployed 9,443,000 11,302,000-1,859, ,079,000 Unemployment Rate Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST