Damn the End of QE! Buy the Dollar and Treasurys!
|
|
- Elvin Cox
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Damn the End of QE! Buy the Dollar and Treasurys! Dr. A. Gary Shilling President A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc. A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. Economic Consultants
2 Chart 1 Historic Inflation and Deflation Period Military Engagement No. of Years Annualized Wholesale Price Change Peacetime % French-Indian War % Peacetime % American Revolution % Peacetime % War of % Peacetime % Mexican-American War % Peacetime % Civil War % Peacetime % World War I % Peacetime % World War II % Cold War % Peacetime % War on Terror % No. of Years Avg. Price Change Wartime: % Peacetime: % Years Total: %
3 Chart 2 20-Year Treasury Yield and Consumer Prices 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points - CPI 12/14: 0.8%, Treasury Yield 01/15: % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2% -4% Year Treasury Yield - left axis Consumer Price Index (Yr/Yr % Change) - right axis Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4 Chart 3 Federal Budget Balance $ Bil. Last Point 2014: Source: Congressional Budget Office
5 Chart 4 Monthly Federal Reserve QE Purchase Announcements billions of dollars /18/12 12/18/ /29/ /19/ /30/ /13/12 06/18/14 07/30/ /17/ /29/ Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 0 Source: Federal Reserve
6 Chart 5 Real GDP Growth During Expansions annualized rates of expansion from NBER trough-to-peak 8% 7% 7.6% 8% 7% 6% 5.6% 6% 5% 4.9% 5.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 5% 4% 4.0% 3.6% 4% 3% 2.8% 2.3% * 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Expansion Start Date *Through 4Q 2014 Source: BEA, NBER 0%
7 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% Chart 6 Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation as a percentage of National Income Last Points 3Q Corp. Profits: 14.3%, Employee Comp: 60.7% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 58% 1947-I 1959-III 1972-I 1984-III 1997-I 2009-III 7% Compensation of Employees - left axis Corp. Profits with IVA and CCAdj - right axis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Chart 7 Real Average Family Income by Income Bracket thous. $2012 bottom 90% top 10% to 5% % change -10.7% +2.6% top 5% to 1% % top 1%to 0.5% % top 0.5%to 0.1% % top 0.1% to 0.01% % top 0.01% % Source: Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez
9 Chart 8 Real Weekly Wages and Household Incomes year/year percent changes 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Last Points Income: 0.3%, Wages: 0.4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Avg. Real Weekly Wages of Production and Supervisory Employees Real Median Household Income -6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau
10 Chart 9 Chinese Gross Domestic Product year/year percent change 12% Last Point 4Q 2014: 7.3% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% % Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics
11 Chart 10 Chinese GDP and Electricity Consumption year/year percent change 50 Last Points - GDP 4Q 14: 7.3%, Electricity 12/14: 4.2% Jan-95 Mar-99 May-03 Jul-07 Sep-11 6 Chinese Electricity Consumption - left axis Chinese GDP - right axis Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Electricity Council
12 Chart 11 Chinese Population Aged millions Projections *Projections start after 2010 Source: United Nations
13 Chart 12 Problems in China 1. Slowing economic growth 2. Transition from export-led to domestic-driven economy 3. Rising militarism 4. Anti-corruption campaign 5. Manipulation of the yuan 6. Shadow banking risks 7. Interest rate deregulation 8. Real estate bubble
14 15% Chart 13 Japanese Real GDP Last Point 3Q Q/Q: -1.9%, Y/Y: -1.2% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% Quarter / quarter percent change SAAR Year / year percent change Source: Japanese Cabinet Office -15%
15 Chart 14 Eurozone Real GDP Growth 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% Last Point Q3 2014: Q/Q 0.6; Y/Y % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% quarter/quarter % change, seas. adj. annual rates year/year % change Source: eurostat -12.0%
16 Chart 15 Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index 450 Last Point January 2015: Jan-97 Mar-01 May-05 Jul-09 Sep Source: Haver Analytics
17 Chart 16 Copper Prices nearest futures contract; dollars per pound Last Point 01/30/15: Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec Source: Thomson Reuters
18 1400 Chart 17 Real U.S. Commodity Prices CRB Index Deflated by CPI Last Point December 2014: Source: Bianco Research, BLS, Historical Statistics of the United States
19 Chart 18 Crude Oil Output for Non-OPEC and OPEC Countries million barrels per day 60 Last Points - 3Q 2014 Non-OPEC: 56.54; OPEC: Source: Energy Information Administration Non-OPEC OPEC
20 Chart 19 Brent and WTI Crude Oil dollars per barrel, nearest futures contracts Last Point 01/30/15 - Brent: 52.99, WTI: Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Dec Brent Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil Source: Thomson Reuters
21 Chart 20 U.S. Personal Saving Rate seasonally-adjusted annual rate Last Point December 2014: 4.9% Jan-59 Jan-68 Jan-77 Jan-86 Jan-95 Jan-04 Jan-13 0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
22 Chart 21 Airline Fares and Jet Fuel Prices 340 Last Points - December 2014: CPI 291.7; Jet Fuel $ Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep-09 May-11 Jan-13 Sep-14 CPI, Airline Fare ( =100) - left axis Jet Fuel Price ($/gal.) - right axis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Energy Information Administration
23 Chart 22 Junk Bond Option Adjusted Spread Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index 6.0 Last Points 01/30/ Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Dec Source: BofA Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve
24 Chart 23 Russian Central Bank Rate and Rubles per USD 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Last Points 01/30/15 Central Bank Rate: 15%; Ruble: % Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Dec Central Bank Rate Russian Rubles per U.S. dollar (right axis ) Source: Russian Central Bank, Bloomberg
25 Chart 24 Venezuelan Official and Black Market FX Rates Bolivar per USD Stronger USD Last Points 1/31/15 Black Market ; Official Stronger USD 0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 0 Source: Dolar Today Venezuela Black Market Exchange Rate Official Exchange Rate
26 Chart 25 Global Consumer Price Indices year/year percent change Country Latest Data as of: Country Latest Data as of: Greece -2.6 Dec-14 Finland 0.5 Dec-14 Spain -1.0 Dec-14 United Kingdom 0.5 Dec-14 Hungary -0.9 Dec-14 Netherlands 0.7 Dec-14 Poland -0.9 Dec-14 Iceland 0.8 Dec-14 Luxembourg -0.6 Dec-14 Korea 0.8 Dec-14 Estonia -0.5 Dec-14 New Zealand 0.8 Q4-14 Belgium -0.4 Dec-14 United States 0.8 Dec-14 Portugal -0.4 Dec-14 Austria 1.0 Dec-14 Ireland -0.3 Dec-14 Canada 1.5 Dec-14 Sweden -0.3 Dec-14 Australia 1.7 Q3-14 Switzerland -0.3 Dec-14 Norway 2.1 Dec-14 Israel -0.2 Dec-14 Japan 2.4 Dec-14 Slovak Republic -0.1 Dec-14 Mexico 4.1 Dec-14 Italy 0.0 Dec-14 Chile 4.6 Dec-14 Czech Republic 0.1 Dec-14 Turkey 8.2 Dec-14 France 0.1 Dec-14 Germany 0.2 Dec-14 G7 0.8 Dec-14 Slovenia 0.2 Dec-14 eurozone -0.2 Dec-14 Denmark 0.3 Dec-14 OECD - Total 1.1 Dec-14 Source: OECD, National Statistical Agencies
27 Chart 26 2-Year Sovereign Bond Yields 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.80% -1.00% -1.20% Last Points 01/30/15: Fin %; Jap. 0.02%; Ger %; Swiz % 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.80% -1.00% -1.20% -1.40% Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec % Source: Fusion Media Limited Finland Japan Germany Switzerland
28 Chart 27 Gold Spot Price dollars per troy ounce 2000 Last Point 01/30/15: Jan-07 Dec-08 Nov-10 Oct-12 Sep Source: Thomson Reuters
29 Chart 28 PCE Deflator seasonally-adjusted 1.0% Last Point December M/M: -0.2, Y/Y: % 0.5% Fed Target: 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -3.0% -1.0% -6.0% -1.5% % Month/Month % Change - left axis Year/Year % Change - right axis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
30 Chart 29 Consumer Price Index ex. Energy all items ex. Energy, seasonally-adjusted 0.4% Last Point December M/M: 0.0, Y/Y: % 0.3% 3.0% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% % Month/Month % Change - left axis Year/Year % Change - right axis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
31 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Chart 30 Consumer Price Index and Crude Oil Last Points December CPI: 0.05% WTI: % 30 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 CPI (month/month % change) - left axis WTI Crude Oil ($/barrel) - right axis Source: Haver Analytics
32 Chart 31 Consumer Price Index and Crude Oil 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% Last Points December CPI: 0.17% WTI: % 10 Jan-85 Jun-85 Nov-85 Apr-86 Sep-86 Feb-87 Jul-87 Dec-87 CPI (month/month % change) - left axis WTI Crude Oil ($/barrel) - right axis Source: Haver Analytics
33 Chart 32 Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie Exchange Rates 0.70 Last Points: 01/30/15 USD/AUD: USD/NZD: 0.726; CAD/USD: Stronger USD Stronger USD Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Source: Thomson Reuters USD/AUD - left axis (inverted) USD/NZD - left axis (inverted) CAD/USD - right axis
34 Chart 33 Euro and Yen Exchange Rates Stronger USD Last Points - 01/30/15 USD/EUR: 1.129, JPY/USD: Stronger USD Jul-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Source: Thomson Reuters USD/EUR - left axis (inverted) JPY/USD - right axis
35 Chart 34 Japanese Monetary Base trillion yen Last Point December 2014: Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep-09 May-11 Jan-13 Sep-14 Source: Bank of Japan
36 Chart 35 Japanese Real GDP year/year percent change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% April to 5% sales tax increase Last Point 3Q 2014: -1.2% April to 8% sales tax increase 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% % Source: Haver Analytics/Japanese Cabinet Office
37 Chart 36 Japanese Population year/year percentage change 2.5% Last Point 2013: -0.2% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% % Source: Japanese Statistics Bureau
38 Chart 37 G-7 Female Labor Force Participation Rates Canada 62.1% U.S. 59.9% U.K. 57.2% Germany 53.2% France 51.2% Japan 47.7% Italy 39.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
39 Chart 38 Asian Foreign Exchange Rates change vs. U.S. dollar since 12/31/13 Stronger U.S. Dollar 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Dec-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Source: Thomson Reuters Japanese Yen Thai Bhat Singapore Dollar Last Points: 01/30/15 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Chinese Yuan Korean Won Stronger U.S. Dollar
40 Chart 39 Eurozone Consumer and Import Prices year/year percent change 10% Last Points - Consumer 01/15: -0.6, Import 11/14: % 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Source: eurostat Consumer Prices Import Prices -4%
41 Chart and 30 Year Treasury Yields 4.00 Last Points 01/30/15: 30-year 2.25%; 10-year 1.68% Jan-13 May-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec Source: Federal Reserve 30-Year Yield 10-Year Yield
42 Chart 41 Survey of Professional Forecasters: Average 12-month Forecast for 10-Year Treasury Yield Last Point 4Q 2015: 2.98% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 10-Year Treasury Rate 12-Month Forecast
43 Chart Year Treasury Note Forecasts for January 2015 forecasts made June 8, 2014 David Blanchflower 2.00 Marc Faber 2.40 Larry Lindsey 3.05 David Rosenberg 3.25 Gary Shilling 1.80 Ed Yardeni 3.05
44 Chart Year Sovereign Bond Yields as of 01/30/15 Yield Spread vs. Treasurys Switzerland Japan Germany Denmark Netherlands Australia Finland France Belgium Ireland Norway Canada U.K Spain Italy U.S Australia Portugal Greece Source: Financial Times
45 Chart 44 Comparative Stock and Bond Performances Last Points January Stocks: 4,257; Bonds: 30, Oct-81 Oct-86 Oct-91 Oct-96 Oct-01 Oct-06 Oct Year Zero Coupon Bond (Oct-81=100) 30,851 or 18.8% Annual Return S&P 500 Total Return (July-82=100) 4,257 or 12.2% Annual Return Source: Bianco Research & Haver Analytics
46 Chart 45 Dollar Index vs. Major Currencies Last Point January 2015: Jan-73 May-81 Sep-89 Jan-98 May-06 Sep-14 Source: Federal Reserve
47 Chart S&P 500 Sector Performance S&P 500 Close 2014 % Change 12/31/ % 12/31/ S&P 500 Sectors 2014 % Change Utilities 24.3% Health Care 23.3% Information Technology 18.2% Financials 13.1% Consumer Staples 12.9% Consumer Discretionary 8.1% Industrials 7.5% Materials 4.7% Telecommunication Services -1.9% Energy -10.0% Source: S&P Indices
48 Chart 47 S&P 500 Index Last Point 01/30/15: Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 Source: Thomson Reuters
49 Cyclically Adjusted Stock Price to Earnings Ratio S&P 500 price /avg. earnings from previous 10 years Average: 16.6 Chart 48 Last Point January 2015: Source: Robert Shiller
Chart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom
Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 1 140% 130% 120%
More informationCorrigendum. OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: ISBN (print) ISBN (PDF) OECD 2012
OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/9789264169401-en ISBN 978-92-64-16939-5 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-16940-1 (PDF) OECD 2012 Corrigendum Page 21: Figure 1.1. Average annual real net investment
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy and the Policies of the New President
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and the Policies of the New President Jason Furman Senior Fellow, PIIE SNS/SHOF Finance Panel Stockholm June 12, 2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics 1750
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure
More informationChapter 1 International economy
Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationStrategist s Handbook: Chart Updates
Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates February 1, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-2- eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Stock Prices 1 S&P
More informationMarket Briefing: Global Markets
Market Briefing: Global Markets July 6, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table
More informationMarket Briefing: Gold
Market Briefing: Gold January 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging
More informationPENSIONS IN OECD COUNTRIES: INDICATORS AND DEVELOPMENTS
PENSIONS IN OECD COUNTRIES: INDICATORS AND DEVELOPMENTS Marius Lüske Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD Lisbon, 28.09.2018 Marius.LUSKE@oecd.org www.oecd.org/els OUTLINE Talk based
More informationApproach to Employment Injury (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD
Approach to (EI) compensation benefits in the EU and OECD The benefits of protection can be divided in three main groups. The cash benefits include disability pensions, survivor's pensions and other short-
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 17, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 13 13 Figure
More informationPredicting the Markets Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Commodities
Predicting the Markets Chapter 15 Charts: November 2, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table
More informationC W S S u m m i t. Dambisa Moyo 16 May 2012 London
2 0 1 2 C W S S u m m i t Dambisa Moyo 16 May 2012 London Table of Contents I Global Labour Market Picture II Six Labour Market Drivers III The Challenges Ahead 2 Global unemployment (millions) Unemployment
More informationMonetary Policy Report September 2017
Monetary Policy Report September 2017 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors
More informationStrategist s Handbook: Chart Updates
Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates July 23, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-2-3 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Stock Prices 1 S&P Earnings,
More informationSources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2016
FISCAL FACT No. 517 July, 2016 Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2016 By Kyle Pomerleau Director of Federal Projects Kevin Adams Research Assistant Key Findings OECD countries rely heavily on
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing April 3, 212 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Figure 1. SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS * EXPOSURE
More informationFinancial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationHurtling Towards Financial Armageddon. Veneroso Associates April 18, 2018
Hurtling Towards Financial Armageddon Veneroso Associates April 18, 2018 SocGen shows a doubling in net debt for the S&P 1500 ex financials Figure 1: US Corporate Net Debt Has Exploded and Exceeds Earnings
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationMacroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
More informationMarket Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar
Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationLow employment among the 50+ population in Hungary
Low employment among the + population in Hungary The role of incentives, health and cognitive capacities Janos Divenyi (Central European University) and Gabor Kezdi (Central European University and IE-CRSHAS)
More informationSome Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
More informationTAX POLICY CENTER BRIEFING BOOK. Background. Q. What are the sources of revenue for the federal government?
What are the sources of revenue for the federal government? FEDERAL BUDGET 1/4 Q. What are the sources of revenue for the federal government? A. About 48 percent of federal revenue comes from individual
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationGlobal Economic Briefing: Global Inflation
Global Economic Briefing: Global Inflation November, 7 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-7 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson -- djohnson@ Mali Quintana -- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationJanuary 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 bn euro 14.0 bn euro deficit for EU25
42/2005-23 March 2005 January 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 14.0 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in January 2005 was a 2.2 billion euro
More informationMarch 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 bn euro 6.5 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/67 24 May 2005 March 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 6.5 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in March 2005 was a 4.2 billion euro surplus,
More informationKeynote Address: Jeff Gundlach Presenter Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer DoubleLine Capital
Keynote Address: Jeff Gundlach Presenter Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer DoubleLine Capital This Time It s Different 2 3 Past Fed Tightening Cycles Source: ValueWalk, Taking a Lesson
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More information1994- Consumer prices
Experiences in Japan: Case of Inflation Indexed Bonds Yukinobu Kitamura Hitotsubashi University 30 January 2009 First Inflation Indexed Bonds issued in 1742, Massachusetts, USA Global Markets for Inflation
More informationStock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Stock Market Briefing: S&P Revenues & the Economy December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at
More informationBank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets
Bank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for, and Amounts Outstanding as at June 30, March, 2005 Turnover data for, Table
More informationThe Case for Fundamental Tax Reform: Overview of the Current Tax System
The Case for Fundamental Tax Reform: Overview of the Current Tax System Sources of Federal Receipts Projected for 2016 Excise Taxes 2.9% Estate & Gift Taxes 0.6% Corporate Income Taxes 9.8% Other Taxes
More informationQuarterly Market Review. First Quarter 2015
Q1 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationTable 1: Foreign exchange turnover: Summary of surveys Billions of U.S. dollars. Number of business days
Table 1: Foreign exchange turnover: Summary of surveys Billions of U.S. dollars Total turnover Number of business days Average daily turnover change 1983 103.2 20 5.2 1986 191.2 20 9.6 84.6 1989 299.9
More informationSources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2017
FISCAL FACT No. 558 Aug. 2017 Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2017 Amir El-Sibaie Analyst Key Findings: OECD countries rely heavily on consumption taxes, such as the value-added tax, and social
More informationSources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2018
FISCAL FACT No. 581 Mar. 2018 Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2018 Amir El-Sibaie Analyst Key Findings In 2015, OECD countries relied heavily on consumption taxes, such as the value-added tax,
More informationFirst estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationAugust 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 bn euro 14.2 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/132 20 October 2005 August 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 14.2 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in August 2005 was a 2.6 billion euro
More informationHealth Care in Crisis
Health Care in Crisis The Economic Imperative for Health Care Reform James Kvaal and Ben Furnas February 19, 2009 1 Center for American Progress Health Care in Crisis U.S. spends twice as much per capita
More informationThe OECD s Society at a Glance Simon Chapple OECD ELS/SPD Villa Vigoni, Italy, 9-11 th March 2011
The OECD s Society at a Glance 2 Simon Chapple OECD ELS/SPD Villa Vigoni, Italy, 9- th March 2 Reconceptualisation for 2: Internal reasons OECD growth from 3 to 34 countries Other major economies (e.g.
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationFigure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors and the ability of risk-premium adjusted
More informationPotential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
More informationBank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Surveys of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2007 and Amounts
Bank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Surveys of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2007 and Amounts Outstanding as at June 30, 2007 January 4, 2008 Table
More informationAuscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund Newsletter June 2018
Auscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund Auscap Asset Management Limited Disclaimer: This newsletter contains performance figures and information in relation to the Auscap Long Short Australian Equities
More informationMarket Briefing: S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy
Market Briefing: S&P Forward Earnings & the Economy January, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationSources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2014
FISCAL FACT Nov. 2014 No. 443 Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2014 By Kyle Pomerleau Economist Key Findings OECD countries rely heavily on consumption taxes, such as the value added tax, and
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 7, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 3 3 Figure 1. S&P
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationGLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no
More informationStatistical Annex. Sources and definitions
Statistical Annex Sources and definitions Most of the statistics shown in these tables can also be found in two other (paper or electronic) publication and data repository, as follows: The annual edition
More informationJuly 2012 Chartbook The Halftime Report
Average Daily $VA LUE Traded ($Billions ) $Billions (212 ( US China Japan CHI-X London Hong Kong Germany France Canada Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan Spain India Italy $billions Switzerland Sweden Amsterdam
More informationGrowth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to 0.4% in the third quarter of 2016
Growth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to.4% in the third quarter of 26 Growth in unit labour costs (ULCs) in the OECD area slowed to.4% in the third quarter of 26 (compared with.6% in the previous quarter)
More informationThe Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
More informationEmerging Markets Outlook
Mark Mobius, Ph.D. Executive Chairman Templeton Emerging Markets Group Emerging Markets Outlook Dealer Use Only / Not for Distribution to the Public Agenda Performance Emerging Markets Equities: Demand
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 19 APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China
More informationPredicting the Markets: Chapter 9 Charts: Predicting the Fed
Predicting the Markets: Chapter 9 Charts: November, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist info@yardenibook.com Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with [insert name of Advisor]. DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company. Market
More informationReporting practices for domestic and total debt securities
Last updated: 27 November 2017 Reporting practices for domestic and total debt securities While the BIS debt securities statistics are in principle harmonised with the recommendations in the Handbook on
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation
Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation 6 Asset performance YTD Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute. Apr, 6 Note: Total return
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationVantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
More informationBurden of Taxation: International Comparisons
Burden of Taxation: International Comparisons Standard Note: SN/EP/3235 Last updated: 15 October 2008 Author: Bryn Morgan Economic Policy & Statistics Section This note presents data comparing the national
More informationHousehold Financial Wealth By Selected Country
Household Financial Wealth By Selected Country US$ Trillions 60 50-37% Indicates Projected Shortfall 40 30 20 Extrapolation of Historical Growth 2003-24 Projection (Based on Demographic Trends) -47% -34%
More information8-Jun-06 Personal Income Top Marginal Tax Rate,
8-Jun-06 Personal Income Top Marginal Tax Rate, 1975-2005 2005 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 Australia 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 48% 49% 49% Austria
More informationOUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET All photography sourced from: http://www.nzstory.govt.nz 1 The Treasury OVERVIEW 1 New Zealand Economic Outlook 2 New Zealand Government Bonds: Risk/Reward
More informationQuarterly Report January - March 2016 May 25, 2016
May 25, Outline 1 Monetary Policy 2 External Conditions 3 Inflation and its Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Inflation has registered a favorable performance, despite a challenging environment.
More informationMarket Briefing: Correlated Markets
Market Briefing: Correlated Markets September 25, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationMay 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 bn euro 3.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
108/2012-16 July 2012 May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 3.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationJanuary 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing January, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure 1.
More informationAugust 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 bn euro 12.6 bn euro deficit for EU27
146/2012-16 October 2012 August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 12.6 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationJune 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28
127/2014-18 August 2014 June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationQ2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015
Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins
More informationJune 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 bn euro 0.4 bn euro surplus for EU27
121/2012-17 August 2012 June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 0.4 surplus for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationA Glance to the Russian Finance & Economy June 04, 2007
Russian Economic Indicators Real Economy PAST ESTIMATE FORECAST 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Gross Domestic Product (growth rate) 6,7% 6,5% 6,1% 6,0% 6,2% GDP at market prices ($trillion) 1,04 1,36 1,54 1,74
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationStronger growth, but risks loom large
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Stronger growth, but risks loom large Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Álvaro S. Pereira OECD Chief Economist ad interim Paris, 3 May Global growth will be around 4% Investment
More informationMonetary Policy report October 2015
Monetary Policy report October 2015 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors
More informationAnnual Market Review Portfolio Management
2016 Annual Market Review 2016 Portfolio Management 2016 Annual Market Review This report features world capital market performance for the past year. Overview: Market Summary World Asset Classes US Stocks
More informationEmerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals
For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table
More information2018 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MUNICIPAL FISCAL HEALTH U.S. Tax Reform and Its Impact on State and Local Government Finance Presented by Jane L.
2018 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MUNICIPAL FISCAL HEALTH U.S. Tax Reform and Its Impact on State and Local Government Finance Presented by Jane L. Campbell ; Director NDC Washington Office National Development
More informationThe Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More information