C W S S u m m i t. Dambisa Moyo 16 May 2012 London
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1 C W S S u m m i t Dambisa Moyo 16 May 2012 London
2 Table of Contents I Global Labour Market Picture II Six Labour Market Drivers III The Challenges Ahead 2
3 Global unemployment (millions) Unemployment rate (%) Global Unemployment High For Foreseeable Future Total unemployment (millions) Unemployment Rate (%) 5 Source: ILO, Global Employment Outlook, April
4 Youth Unemployment Young People Are 3x as Likely to be Unemployed as Adults 75 MILLION Unemployed Youth Age There is unfortunately little hope for a substantial improvement in near-term employment prospects for young people. ~International Labour Organization Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends
5 Mexico Canada Canada Turkey Finland United States United Kingdom OECD Japan Spain France Germany Greece Italy Ireland Slovak Republic Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Unemployment is Lasting Longer Share of unemployed people spending at least 12 months in unemployment Mean number of weeks unemployed in the United States Source: OECD, Going for Growth 2012; Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
6 The Working Poor 900 million working for less than US$2/day working for less than US$1.25/day 456 million Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends
7 Employment Growth and Productivity Emerging Markets Are Winners in Employment and Productivity Growth Average Annual Employment Growth Average Annual Labour Productivity Growth World Developed economies East Asia South Asia Africa Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends
8 Six Key Factors Driving Labour Markets
9 Six Key Factors Driving Labour Markets Unfavorable Demographics Rebalancing From East to West Pension Dynamics and Skyrocketing Healthcare Costs Robotics and Technology Poor and Slipping Education Standards Evolving Policy Environment 9
10 (1) Unfavorable Demographics Euro Area UK US China Brazil India Africa Age 0-14 Age Age 65+ Labour Participation (millions) Age Dependency Ratio (old)* Euro Area UK US China Brazil India Africa * Proportion of dependents age 65+ per 100 members of the working age population (15-64) Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends
11 (2) Pension Dynamics and Skyrocketing Healthcare Costs Significant Unfunded Liabilities United States Around 70% of government spending will go toward Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid by 2040 The number of Americans with Alzheimer s will increase from 5.1 million in 2010 to 13.5 million in The cost of care of sufferers will reach US$1 trillion. According to McKinsey, health costs will represent 100% of U.S. GDP by 2065 United Kingdom 70% of health- and social-care costs are due to people with long-term conditions The cost of treating diabetes and heart disease will almost double by 2050, reaching 10 billion GBP per year. The IMF calculates that rising pension costs between 2010 and 2050 will increase public debt from 76% to 135% of GDP. Source: US GAO; IMF; McKinsey & Company; Alzheimer s Association; Sir John Oldham 11
12 (3) Poor and Slipping Education More Demand For Skilled Workers USA Job Growth by Category , millions Interaction Contextual, complex Transaction routinized, automated USA By 2020 short 1.5 million workers with college degrees; surplus of 6 million without high school diplomas France -2.7 Production Raw materials to finished goods short 2.3 million workers with college degrees; surplus of 2.2 million without them Source: McKinsey & Company, Help Wanted,
13 Median Weekly Earnings Unemployment Rate Percent of Workforce An Increasing Demand For Skilled Workers But Skilled Levels are Slipping USA unemployment and wage rates OECD employment Primary and lower secondary Upper secondary Median weekly earnings Unemployment rate Tertiary Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD 13
14 OECD Education Performance Poor Results in the US and Western Europe Portugal Slovenia Finland Japan United Kingdom Norway Ireland New Zealand Switzerland Israel Korea Iceland Hungary Denmark Poland Germany Czech Republic OECD Slovak Republic Italy Canada United States Spain Sweden Luxembourg Chile China Mexico Turkey Secondary School Graduation Rate OECD, 82% USA, 76% #21 UK, 92% #5 China (Shanghai) Korea Finland Canada New Zealand Japan Australia Netherlands Belgium Norway Switzerland Estonia Iceland Poland United States Liechtenstein Germany Sweden France Ireland Denmark Taiwan United Kingdom Hungary OECD Portugal Italy Slovenia Greece Spain Czech Republic Slovak Republic Israel Luxembourg Austria Turkey Chile Mexico PISA Reading USA, 500 #15 UK, 494 #23 OECD, Source: OECD
15 OECD Education Performance Poor Results in the US and Western Europe China (Shanghai) Korea Taiwan Finland Liechtenstein Switzerland Japan Canada Netherlands New Zealand Belgium Australia Germany Estonia Iceland Denmark Slovenia Norway Slovak Republic France Austria OECD Poland Sweden Czech Republic United Kingdom Hungary Luxembourg Portugal Ireland United States Spain Italy Greece Israel Turkey Chile Mexico PISA Math OECD, 496 UK, 492 #25 USA, 487 #30 China (Shanghai) Finland Japan Korea New Zealand Canada Estonia Australia Netherlands Taiwan Germany Liechtenstein Switzerland United Kingdom Slovenia Ireland Poland Belgium Hungary United States OECD Czech Republic Norway Denmark Iceland Sweden Austria Portugal France Slovak Republic Italy Spain Luxembourg Greece Israel Turkey Chile Mexico PISA Science UK, 514 #14 USA, 502 #20 OECD, Source: OECD
16 These educational gaps impose on the United States the economic equivalent of a permanent national recession. McKinsey Global Institute, 2009
17 (4) Rebalancing from East to West China (i) increasing worker pay - Average hourly wage for urban migrants up 28% in 2011 (ii) decreasing labour supply USA (i) energy costs down - natural $2 (ii) lower labour costs due to manufacturing collapse China s Position As % of US Levels Natural Gas Prices $/MMus, Henry Hub Input Cost Shares as a Percent of US Manufacturing Output value added per person compensation per person relative unit labour cost labour materials services capital energy 4 4 Source: Dragonomics, BLS, EIA, Cewlowski and Colub
18 Labour s Reduced Importance Will The Declining Labour Cost Bring Jobs Back? Declining labour share of manufacturing sector output Labour costs 6.6% of ipad retail value Source: BLS, The Compensation Productivity Gap, 2011; Economist
19 Can Tech Gains Explain Lack of Job Growth? No Net Job Creation in the Last Decade in the US US Spending on Payrolls and Equipment, Source: Wall Street Journal
20 (5) Robotics and Technology Will Robots Replace Human Labour? Germany 250 China (auto industry) Global Average 50 China (auto industry) Source: International Federation of Robotics Statistical Department
21 Percent of Workforce (6) Evolving Policy Environment Risks of Increased Government Intervention Temporary Workers (2011) Temporary Employment Protection Source: OECD, Going for Growth, 2012; Eurostat From low (0) to high (5) 21
22 Iceland Norway United States Belgium France Turkey Japan Luxembourg Netherlands EU Canada Mexico Germany Poland Czech Republic Spain United Kingdom Switzerland Hungary Italy New Zealand Denmark Sweden Portugal Korea Ireland Greece Slovak Republic Austria Australia Finland Adoption Rate Weak Policy Implementation Adoption of OECD s Labour Productivity Recommendations, OECD Average Source: OECD, Going for Growth,
23 The Challenges Ahead
24 Our Policy Challenge A Call to Action In the Next Decade, Create 600 Million New Jobs 200 million for the currently unemployed 400 million to prevent increased unemployment Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends,
25 Persistent Policy Concerns in Labour Markets Four Factors Culminating in Risk of Government Intervention (1) Lack of Aggregate Demand - Voluntary quits down 33% in USA since financial crisis (2) Risks of Hysteresis - Discouraging further government action (3) Rising Male Unemployment - 1 in 4 U.S. males age is unemployed or out of labour force million young people globally have dropped out of market (4) Sticky Unemployment Rates - Skills mismatch: 4 million vacant jobs in the EU Source: BLS; Staffing Industry Analysts Meddling in the Labour Markets 25
26 Government is A Major Employer 7 of the 10 Largest Employers are Governments United States Department of Defense People s Liberation Army, China Walmart McDonald s National Health Service (England) Chinese National Petroleum Corporation State Grid Corporation of China Indian Railways Indian Armed Forces Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) 3.2 million 2.3 million 2.1 million 1.9 million 1.7 million 1.6 million 1.5 million 1.4 million 1.3 million 1.2 million Source: BBC
27 Better Government Wages Attract Workers $8,000 Higher on Average in the United States Source: Chris Edwards; BLS 27
28 The Rise of Naked Protectionism Trade Tariffs and Quotas to Protect Workers Trade Restrictions EU documented protectionist policies between 2010 and
29 Weakening Currency To Remain Competitive Economies that issue reserve currencies are managing international liquidity without a sense of the collective good. This wave of unilateral, competitive devaluations creates a vicious cycle that leads to trade and exchange rate protectionism. ~Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff Financial Times, September 21, 2011 Western protectionist measures cast a dark shadow over world economic recovery ~Chinese premier Wen Jiabao October 14,
30 Some Policy Options And Their Effects on Growth and Equity An increase in Employment rate Earnings equality GDP per capita Tertiary education graduation rate? + + Secondary education graduation rate? + + Equality in education? + + Minimum wage?/- +? Unionization? +? Collective wage agreements -? - Employment protection legislation (EPL)?/- + - EPL gap between temporary and regular work Duration of unemployment benefits Product market regulation -?/+ - Integration of immigrants Anti-discrimination initiatives Female labour force participation Source: OECD, Going for Growth
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