Reliance Industries Ltd.

Transcription

1 1. RESULT UPDATE 22 nd January, 2018

2 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update Q3FY18 II 22nd January, 2018 CMP INR 929 Result highlights Target INR 1600 Potential Upside 72.2% Market Cap (INR Mn) 5,886,428 Operationally good quarter with profitable Jio business! Recommendation BUY Sector Oil & Gas 2 (RIL) reported net profit of INR 94,450 mln, above market expectation. However GRM s of $11.6/bbl were in-line with market expectations. It outperformed benchmark Singapore Complex margins by $4.4/bbl. Consolidated revenue increased by 22% YoY to INR 10,25,000 mln during the quarter ending December as against INR 8,41,890 mln in year-ago period. Net profit increased 26% YoY and 17% QoQ. Rise in PAT from previous quarter is mainly on account of stable production from refining and higher petchem segment and improved performance in the oil and gas segment. GRMs stood at $11.6/ barrel compared to $12/barrel in Q2FY18 and $10.8/bbl in Q3FY17. GRMs were marginally lower QoQ because of decrease in gasoline, diesel and fuel oil cracks. On a QoQ basis, gasoline cracks decreased 8% QoQ at$10.3/bbl as compared to Dubai Fateh Crude and diesel cracks decreased 6.8% QoQ at $12.3 as compared to Dubai Fateh crude. Petchem EBIT increased by 16.0% QoQ and 73% YoY, as product deltas held up well despite lower prices along with higher volumes. Retail business has been consolidated and posted an EBIT of INR 4,870 mln for the quarter up 46% QoQ and 111% YoY. Other income was down 4.3% QoQ and 19% YoY to INR 22,180 mln. RIL's outstanding debt stood at INR 2,132,060 mln as on Dec 31, 2017 as compared to INR 1,966,010 mln as on March 31, Cash in the books stood at INR 786,170 mln Vs INR 772,260 mln in March 31, These were in bank deposits, mutual funds, CDs and Government Bonds and other marketable securities. The capital expenditure for the quarter ended Dec 2017 was INR 173,360 mln including exchange rate difference capitalization. Capital expenditure was principally on account of Digital Services business, balance of expenditure for projects in the petrochemicals and refining business at Jamnagar and in Organized Retail business. MARKET DATA Shares outs (Mn) 6333 Equity Cap (INR Mn) Mkt Cap (INR Mn) Wk H/L (INR) 959/507 Volume Avg (3m K) Face Value (INR) 10 Bloomberg Code RIL IN SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE Reliance Inds Sensex MARKET INFO SENSEX NIFTY KEY FINANCIALS Particulars (INR mln) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales 29,54,530 34,03,800 40,51,791 49,20,097 53,14,989 EBITDA 4,34,530 4,61,470 6,67,258 8,62,869 9,03,725 PAT 2,71,630 2,99,620 3,68,181 5,14,317 5,39,597 EPS Diluted (INR) OPM (%) 14.7% 13.6% 16.5% 17.5% 17.0% NPM (%) 9.2% 8.8% 9.1% 10.5% 10.2% P/E Valuation & Recommendation: The profitability of the Reliance Jio business and a higher volume growth in the petrochemicals business were the primary reasons driving the profitability of the company. Going forward, we believe the performance of both these segments will further boost the operating income of the company. The recently commissioned off gas cracker complex will help to produce higher value-added polymer derivatives from the lowestcost fossil fuels resulting in lower costs leading to superior operating income. With the Reliance Jio business exhibiting a strong performance for the quarter, we believe the company will be able to further grow its 4G smartphone base at a robust pace, and along with its Jio services, we expect the average revenue per use (ARPU) of the business to gradually increase). Going forward, these projects are expected to generate strong free cash flows, whose full performance will be likely seen FY19 onwards. We recommend BUY with the target price of INR 1,600/share based on SOTP methodology. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Particulars Dec 17 Sep 17 Jun 17 Promoters FIIs DIIs Others Total % Revenue CAGR between FY 17 and FY 19E 23.2% EBITDA CAGR between FY 17 and FY 19E

3 Refining & Marketing Segment: GRM for the quarter stood at $11.6/bbl as against $12/bbl in Q2FY18 and $10.8/bbl in Q3FY17. The revenues were up both YoY and QoQ to INR 758,650 mln while the EBIT margins decreased 6.9% QoQ and 0.5% YoY. The higher revenues came from 24% higher Brent oil prices even though the throughput marginally decreased to 17.7 MMT. The lower GRM was attributed to the lower gasoline, diesel and fuel oil cracks. The GRM for the quarter widened over the Singapore GRM by $4.4/bbl ($3.7/bbl in Q2FY18) due to lower gasoline and diesel cracks which pushed the benchmark downwards from $8.3/bbl in Q2FY18 to $7.2/bbl for Q3FY18. Segment Revenue 7,58,650 6,97,660 6,16, % 23.0% EBIT 61,650 66,210 61, % -0.5% Crude Refined (MMT) GRM (USD/bbl) EBIT Margin (%) 8.1% 9.5% 10.0% Petrochemical business: Petrochemicals EBIT increased by 16% on QoQ basis and 73% YoY led by strong polymer deltas and healthy polyester chain deltas along with increased volumes coming from an increased demand (8 MMT vs 7.5 MMT in Q2FY18 and 6.2 MMT in Q3FY18. The increase in segment EBIT was attributed to higher margins, improved product mix and a strong volume growth aided by the recently commissioned ROGC cracker. Segment Revenue 3,37,260 2,79,990 2,28, % 47.6% Segment EBIT 57,530 49,600 33, % 73.0% EBIT Margin (%) 17.1% 17.7% 14.6% Production in India (MMT) Oil & Gas (Exploration & Production): Revenue stood at INR 16,310 up 8.5% QoQ and 34% YoY. The increase is mainly due to commencement of CBM production and higher oil and gas price realisation. Segment EBIT was at INR 2,910 mln as against INR 2,950 mln in the corresponding period of the previous year. Domestic production was lower at 19.7 BCFe, down 15% Y-o-Y whereas production in US Shale operations declined by 14% to 32.4 BCFe. Segment Revenue 16,310 15,030 12, % 34.2% Segment EBIT -2,910-2,720-2, % -1.4% EBIT Margin (%) -17.8% -18.1% -24.3% Production (BCFe) Organized Retail: Turnover in Q3FY18 stood at INR 187,980 mln, a 28% growth QoQ and 116% YoY. Retail business achieved EBIT of INR 4870 mln for Q3FY18, QoQ growth of 46%. Reliance Retail added 72 stores across various store concepts and strengthened its distribution network for consumer electronics. The business operated 3,751 stores across 750 cities with an area of over 14.5 mln sq. Ft (13.3 mln sq. Ft in Q3FY17). Segment Revenue 1,87,980 1,46,460 86, % 116.4% Segment EBIT 4,870 3,340 2, % 110.8% EBIT Margin (%) 2.6% 2.3% 2.7% Business PBDIT 6,060 4,440 3, % 82.0% 3

4 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update Q3FY18 II 22 nd January, Media Business: Turnover in Q3FY18 stood at INR 3,660 mln, 12% growth QoQ but down 1.9% YoY due to reduced revenues from TV shopping business. However, EBIT turned positive to INR 570 mln with cost-control measures across verticals amidst a recovering advertising environment. News cluster performed as the #1 network in viewership as well as reach while entertainment cluster under JV Viacom18 also witnessed a revival in growth. Segment Revenue 3,660 3,270 3, % -1.9% Segment EBIT EBIT Margin (%) 15.6% -13.8% -20.1% Digital Services: The Q3FY18 numbers for Jio have been better than expected with a first-positive PAT contribution to the consolidated performance. Jio reported revenues of INR 68,790 mln on a subscriber base of million at the end of December, a net subscriber addition of 21.5 mln. This translated into an average rate per user (ARPU) of INR 154 per month, which is comparable toother players in the industry. Network charges were down to INR Mn as compared to INR Mn boosted profit as well. (INR Million) Q3FY18 Q2FY18 QoQ (%) Gross Revenue 68,790 61, % PBDIT 26,280 14, % PAT 5,044-2,706 PBDIT Margin (%) 38.2% 23.5% PAT Margin (%) 7.3% -4.4% Reliance Jio Performance Q3FY18 Q2FY18 Net Subscriber addition during the quarter (mln) Total number of Subscribers (mln) Average Revenue per User (INR per month) Wireless data traffic (crores GB) Video Consumption (crore hours per month) Analysis: Total revenues grew significantly to INR 1,025,000 mln up 22% YoY and 8% QoQ. The increase in revenue is primarily on account of increase in prices and volumes in the refining, petrochemicals and retail business. The consolidated revenues also reflect the positive performance of Reliance Jio business with a first time positive PAT contribution. The company posted a consol net profit of INR 94,450 in Q2FY18 as against INR 80,970 in Q2FY18 and INR 75,240 in Q3FY17 (PAT Margin at 9.2%) benefitting from a lower interest expense sequentially. RIL s telecom arm, Reliance Jio, reported a first time positive PAT of INR 5,040 mln as against a loss of INR 2,706 mln in Q2FY18, while revenues from Reliance Jio came in at INR 68,790 mln. Its subscriber base as of 31 Dec, 2017 stood at mln (net subscriber addition of 21.5 mln). This quarter also marked the successful launch of the Jio phone. Based on the business model of Jio and its robust subscriber addition, we expect the Jio to continue growing fast as a digital services company and significantly contribute to the consolidated PAT going forward. The revenues from the refining segment came in at INR 758,650 mln up 9% QoQ and 23% YoY. The Gross Refining Margins stood at at $11.6/bbl lower than its previous GRMs at $12/bbl in Q2FY18 and $10.8/bbl in Q3FY17. while outperforming the benchmark Singapore complex margins by $4.4/bbl. We expect the GRM in the coming quarters to be between $12-13/bbl supported by improved product cracks and increasing volumes.

5 QUATERLY PERFORMANCE INCOME STATEMENT 5 Particulars (INR Million) Q3FY18 Q3FY17 Q2FY18 Y-o-Y (%) Q-o-Q (%) Revenue from operations 10,25,000 8,41,890 9,50, % 7.8% Cost of Materials Consumed 5,48,640 4,67,740 4,76, % 15.1% Purchases of Stock-in-trade 1,74,890 1,07,100 1,38, % 25.9% Changes in inventories of FG, WIP and SIT -66,330-17,800-2, % % Excise Duty & Service Tax 26,900 47,810 36, % -25.4% Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) 6,84,100 6,04,850 6,49, % 5.3% Gross Profit 3,40,900 2,37,040 3,01, % 13.1% Gross Profit Margin (%) 33.3% 28.2% 31.7% Employee benefit expense 23,330 18,940 22, % 3.2% Other expenses 1,41,690 1,02,360 1,23, % 15.0% Total Operating Expenditure 1,65,020 1,21,300 1,45, % 13.2% EBITDA 1,75,880 1,15,740 1,55, % 13.0% EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2% 13.7% 16.4% Depreciation and Amortization Expense 45,300 27,930 42, % 5.7% EBIT 1,30,580 87,810 1,12, % 15.8% Finance Cost 20,950 12,040 22, % -7.8% Other Income 22,180 27,360 23, % -4.3% Share of Profit/(Loss) of Associates & Joint Ventures % 178.6% Profit before exceptional items and tax 1,32,200 1,02,400 1,13, % 16.6% Exceptional Items Profit before Tax (PBT) 1,32,200 1,02,400 1,13, % 16.6% Tax Expense 37,750 27,160 32, % 16.5% Profit after Tax (PAT) 94,450 75,240 80, % 16.6% Net Profit Margin (%) 9.2% 8.9% 8.5% EPS Basic (INR) EPS Diluted (INR)

6 INCOME STATEMENT 6 Particulars(INR Mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Turnover 29,54,530 34,03,800 40,51,791 49,20,097 53,14,989 Excise Duty / Service Tax recovered 1,94,890 2,38,270 2,11,582 3,27,770 3,54,078 Net Turnover 27,59,640 31,65,530 38,40,209 45,92,326 49,60,912 Expenses: (Increase)/decrease in stock in trade 25,780-27,850-1,38,920-2,65,320-2,65,320 Consumption of raw materials 15,81,990 18,07,520 20,38,986 24,28,862 26,56,036 Purchases 2,82,230 4,51,810 6,14,113 6,56,882 7,09,604 Staff costs 76,260 82,940 94,043 96,633 1,00,557 Other expenditure 3,58,850 3,89,640 4,98,399 5,47,080 5,90,989 Total Expenses: 23,25,110 27,04,060 31,72,952 37,29,457 40,57,187 EBITDA 4,34,530 4,61,470 6,67,258 8,62,869 9,03,725 EBITDA Margin (%) 14.7% 13.6% 16.5% 17.5% 17.0% Other Income 78,070 94,580 89,760 94,704 94,924 Depreciation 1,24,550 1,16,950 1,61,410 2,09,087 2,45,563 EBIT 3,88,050 4,39,100 5,95,608 7,48,486 7,53,086 Interest and finance charges 36,370 35,360 77,580 68,160 51,120 Profit before tax 3,51,680 4,03,740 5,18,028 6,80,326 7,01,966 Exceptional item 3, , PBT after exceptional item 3,54,920 4,03,740 5,07,158 6,80,326 7,01,966 Tax Expense 84,470 1,03,280 1,41,396 1,85,750 1,91,658 Net Profit 2,70,450 3,00,460 3,65,762 4,94,577 5,10,308 Share of profit /(loss)of associates 2,170-1,140 2,216 6,271 6,470 Minority interest Net profit after minority interest 2,71,630 2,99,620 3,68,181 5,01,050 5,16,981 NPM Margin (%) 9.2% 8.8% 9.1% 10.2% 9.7%

7 BALANCE SHEET 7 Particulars (INR Mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E LIABILITIES Equity Share Capital 29,480 29,590 59,200 59,200 59,200 Reserves and Surplus 22,86,080 26,07,500 29,75,681 34,89,998 40,29,595 Minority Interest 33,560 29,170 29,170 29,170 29,170 Total Equity 23,49,120 26,66,260 30,64,051 35,78,368 41,17,965 Non-Current Liabilities Long Term Borrowings 14,16,470 15,21,480 18,95,600 16,11,260 13,69,571 Deferred Payment Liabilities 1,33,100 2,01,370 2,81,288 3,92,922 5,48,861 Deferred Tax Liability (net) 2,04,940 2,11,980 2,19,077 2,26,411 2,33,990 Other Financial Liabilities - LT 22,490 90,250 1,09,485 1,30,928 1,41,437 Long Term Provisions 12,310 23,510 28,521 34,107 36,844 Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,89,310 20,48,590 25,33,970 23,95,628 23,30,704 Current Liabilities Short Term Borrowings 2,35,450 3,15,280 2,36,460 1,77,345 1,33,009 Trade Payables 6,02,960 7,65,950 8,64,035 10,29,248 11,25,515 Other Current Liabilities 1,00,050 2,08,820 2,53,326 3,02,941 3,27,256 Short Term Provisions 17,750 17,690 21,460 25,663 27,723 Other Financial Liabilities 8,95,330 10,45,430 12,68,246 15,16,636 16,38,363 Total Current Liabilities 18,51,540 23,53,170 26,43,528 30,51,833 32,51,865 Total Liability 36,40,850 44,01,760 51,77,498 54,47,461 55,82,569 SOURCES OF FUNDS 59,89,970 70,68,020 82,41,549 90,25,830 97,00,534 ASSETS Non-current Assets Tangible Assets 15,78,250 16,88,220 25,98,661 31,68,568 37,21,332 Intangible Assets 2,28,310 2,48,120 8,66,220 10,56,189 12,40,444 Capital Work-in-Progress 17,03,970 24,89,290 19,91,432 15,93,146 12,74,516 Intangible Assets under Development 5,83,000 7,59,080 7,59,080 7,59,080 7,59,080 Goodwill on Consolidation 42,540 48,920 48,920 48,920 48,920 Non-Current Investments 4,15,120 2,56,390 2,69,210 2,82,670 2,96,803 Long Term Loans and Advances 20,320 27,080 32,852 39,286 42,439 Other Non-Current Assets ,790 1,00,435 1,20,106 1,29,746 Total Non-Current Assets 47,12,120 55,99,890 66,66,809 70,67,965 75,13,280 Current Assets Current Investments 4,25,030 5,27,510 6,33,012 7,59,614 9,11,537 Inventories 4,64,860 5,34,600 6,03,059 7,18,371 7,85,561 Trade Receivables 44,650 81,770 99,198 1,18,626 1,28,147 Cash and Bank Balances 1,10,280 30,230 87,174 1,79,129 1,65,266 Short Term Loans and Advances 8,410 9,960 36,673 43,856 47,375 Other Current Assets 1,63,450 1,98,710 12,083 14,449 15,609 Other Financial Assets - ST 61,170 85,350 1,03,541 1,23,820 1,33,758 Total Current Assets 12,77,850 14,68,130 15,74,740 19,57,865 21,87,254 APPLICATION OF FUNDS 59,89,970 70,68,020 82,41,549 90,25,830 97,00,534

8 8 CASH FLOW STATEMENT Particulars (INR million) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Profit before Tax (PBT): 3,87,370 4,00,340 5,07,158 6,98,348 7,32,687 Operating profit before working capital changes 3,88,870 4,41,700 7,59,934 9,35,720 9,81,042 Cash Generated from/(used in) operations 4,67,160 5,96,330 11,67,289 12,31,864 11,46,130 Less: Income Tax Paid (net of refunds) -85,820-1,00,830-1,41,396-1,90,670-2,00,046 Net Cash generated from/(used in) operating activities 3,81,340 4,95,500 10,25,894 10,41,193 9,46,085 Net Cash Used In Investing Activities -3,61,900-6,62,920-12,16,280-5,29,544-6,09,874 Net Cash Used in Financing Activities -32,100 86,170 2,47,330-4,19,695-3,50,073 Net Increase/( Decrease ) in Cash and Cash Equivalents -12,660-81,250 56,944 91,955-13,863 Cash and Cash Equivalents at the beginning of the year 1,22,850 1,10,230 30,230 87,174 1,79,129 Add: Upon addition of Subsidiaries Cash and Cash Equivalents at the end of the year 1,10,230 29,890 87,174 1,79,129 1,65,266 KEY RATIOS Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Adjusted EPS (INR) EBITDA Margin (%) 14.71% 13.56% 16.47% 17.54% 17.00% EBIT Margin (%) 13.13% 12.90% 14.70% 15.74% 14.99% RoCE (%) 9.70% 9.75% 11.46% 14.43% 14.18% RoE (%) 11.56% 11.24% 12.02% 14.37% 13.10% Debt/Equity (x) EV/EBITDA P/E

9 9 Rating Legend Date CMP (INR) TP (INR) Recommendation 22-Jan BUY 16-Oct BUY 17-Jan BUY 24-Oct BUY 18-July BUY 25-Apr BUY 20-Jan BUY 19-Oct BUY 27-July BUY 14-Oct BUY Our Rating Upside Buy More than 15% Accumulate 5% 15% Hold 0 5% Reduce -5% 0 Sell Less than 5% CERTIFICATION: We, Vaibhav Chowdhry (B.Com, MBA), research analyst and Neha Raichura (CFA Level III Cleared, M.Com), research associate, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & Conditions and other disclosures: KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd (hereinafter referred to as KRCSSPL) is a registered member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. 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