Short term indicators in April 2009

Transcription

1 29:4 3 April 29.3% growth of GDP in 28.9% decrease of GDP in 4 th quarter 28 Gross Domestic Product 28 and 4th quarter 28 The present figures show Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 28 amounting to 1,465 billion ISK. In real terms, GDP grew at a rate of.3%. The growth in GDP during last year can mainly be explained by 7% growth in exports. Increase in exports together with a decline in imports by 18% resulted in considerable improvement in the external balance on goods and services. In real terms seasonally adjusted GDP in the 4 th quarter of 28 decreased by.9% from the previous quarter. Over the same period total domestic expenditure decreased by 14% in real terms, where household final consumption decreased by 15% and and gross fixed capital formation by almost 14% Exports rose by 1.5% while imports decreased by almost 33% in the 4 th quarter of 28 as compared with the 3 rd quarter 28. The CPI rose by 15.2% in the 12 months to March Prices The CPI in March 29 fell by.59% from the preceding month (rose by.16% less housing cost). Over the last 12 months the CPI rose by 15.2% (CPI less housing cost rose by 19.4%) while the change over the last 3 months is equivalent to an annual inflation of 1.9% (7.6% inflation less housing cost). In Iceland, the HICP rose by 1.26% in February and by.46% in the EEA. Over the 12 months to February the HICP in Iceland rose by 21.6% and by 1.9% in the EEA. The building cost index in March fell by.4% from the preceding month and rose by 21.7% on March 28. The producer price index in February fell by 8.3% from the preceding month and rose by 23.8% on February 28. The wage index rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to February Wages The wage index for the whole economy in February is unchanged from the previous month but has risen by 6.7% over the last 12 months. The corresponding rise in the CPI was 17.6%. Deflated by the CPI, real wages fell by 9.3% over the 12 months to February. Domestic demand decreases Domestic demand Credit card turnover of private households decreased by 14.1% in January February 29 from January February 28. Debit card turnover decreased by 4.1% during the period. Altogether domestic debit and credit card turnover by households decreased by 9.6% in January February 29 from January February 28. Debit and credit card expenditure by Icelanders abroad decreased by 25.1% and total credit and debit card turnover of foreign cards in Iceland increased by

2 2 98.1% in January February 29 from January February 28. During this period the CPI less housing cost rose by 21.2% which corresponds to a decrease of domestic debit and credit card turnover by households of 25.4% in real terms. 89.3% decrease in new car registrations New car registrations in January March 29 were 524, i.e. decreased by 89.3% from January March 28. The decrease in recent 12 months is 65.8%. Increase in fish catch Fish catch volume and export prices The total value of the fish catch in January Februrary 29, measured at constant prices, was 28.1% more than the year before. Export prices of marine products, measured in Icelandic krónur, were up by 48.9% in January February 29 from January February 28. The price of foreign exchange increased by 59.4% (krónur depreciated) between the periods. Surplus in external trade in February Surplus in external trade in March External trade in February and preliminary figures in March The balance of trade of goods in February showed a surplus of 5.9 billion ISK as compared with a deficit of 18.6 billion in February 28. The value of exports was 32.3 billion and the value of imports was 26.4 billion. The preliminary value of exports of goods in March 29 is 34.9 billion ISK fob while the value of imports is 26.6 billion ISK fob. Therefore preliminary figures show a trade surplus in March 29 of 8.3 billion ISK compared with a trade deficit 2.3 billion in March % decline in arrivals at Keflavik International Airport in January March Arrivals at Keflavik International Airport 19 thousand passengers arrived from abroad at Keflavik International Airport in January March 29 compared with 17 thousand in January March 28. This is a decline of 35.8%. The decrease in recent 12 months is 14.6%. 17.3% growth in VAT turnover 28 VAT turnover VAT turnover increased by 17.3% in 28 compared with a 1.9% increase in 27. The growth was different in various industries: Turnover in million ISK Turnover 27 Growth 27 Turnover 28 Growth 28 Total turnover 2,287, ,682, Manufacturing 45, , Construction 255, , Retail trade and sale of motor vehicles 385, , Hotels and restaurants 51, , Transport 134, , Communication 42, , Other services 226, ,

3 3 Annual Quarterly Consumer Harmonised GPD growth GPD price index of Harmonised from same growth Consumer index less consumer index of Building Producer Aluminium quarter of from prev. index housing prices, consumer cost price production, prev. year quarter s.a. price cost Iceland prices, EEA index index tonnes , ,385 Apr ,631 May ,562 Jun ,128 Jul ,7 Aug ,829 Sept ,656 Oct ,412 Nov ,493 Dec ,911 Jan ,461 Feb ,925 Mar ,55 Apr ,587 May ,92 Jun ,625 Jul ,26 Aug ,741 Sept ,413 Oct ,215 Nov ,21 Dec ,74 Jan ,73 Feb ,165 Mar GDP growth rate, % From same quarter of prev. year Quarterly growth seasonally adjusted M M J S N Producer price index Harmonised index of consumer prices Iceland EEA Consumer price index Total Less housing cost M

4 4 Milk production and sales in thousand litres Sale of meat in tonnes Electricity cons. Gwh Milk Milk Milk processing Power received sales converted by intensive General by dairies from dairies protein content Lamb Beef Pork Poultry industry use ,817 41,982 72,556 6,938 3,564 6,89 7,457 8, , ,52 43,144 73,617 7,481 3,613 6,59 7,332 12, ,633.2 Feb. 27 9,839 3,266 5, Mar ,82 3,713 6, Apr. 27 1,891 3,382 5, May 27 11,751 3,614 6, Jun ,213 3,446 5, Jul. 27 1,84 3,361 6, Aug. 27 1,688 3,77 6, Sep. 27 8,637 3,324 5, Oct. 27 9,92 3,666 6, Nov. 27 9,413 3,598 6, Dec. 27 1,7 3,232 5, Jan. 28 1,562 3,578 6, Feb. 28 1,216 3,453 5, Mar ,54 3,372 6, , Apr ,258 3,653 6, , May 28 11,819 3,686 6, , Jun ,178 3,267 5, , Jul. 28 1,834 3,598 7, , Aug. 28 1,12 3,519 6, , Sep. 28 9,727 3,69 6, , Oct. 28 9,627 4,82 7,68 1, , Nov. 28 9,176 3,568 4, , Dec. 28 1,589 3,758 5, , Jan. 29 1,766 3,836 5, Feb. 29 1,5 3,543 5, , 7, 6, 5, Milk sales - thousand litres Milk Processed milk 1,2 1, Electricity consumption - Gwh Power intensive industry General use 4, 2 3, M M J S N ,4 1,2 Sale of lamb and beef meat - tonnes Lamb meat Beef meat 1,4 1,2 Sale of pork and poultry meat - tonnes Pork meat Poultry meat 1, 1,

5 5 Import of fuel in tonnes Market prices of housing - index Cement Multi-flat Single-flat All types, All types, sales houses, houses, outside whole Petrol Gas oils Fuel oils Jet fuel index cap. region cap. region cap. region country , ,253 1,668 17, , ,245 94, , Mar ,926 44,665 15,48 13, Apr. 27 5,739 1,319 2,52 21, May 27 18,568 38,595 15, Jun. 27 3,149 11,112 2,997 32, Jul ,288 71,11 14, Aug ,189 25,793 5,32 1, Sep ,83 48,987 2,663 12, Oct. 27 7,515 13,21 4,873 45, Nov. 27 2,85 62,868 2, Dec. 27 3,827 13,912 3,396 12, Jan ,177 39,25 3, Feb. 28 7,188 24,43 1,695 32, Mar ,51 22,33 1, Apr ,37 31,936 7,934 14, May 28 13,977 24,816 11,386 12, Jun. 28 1,819 27,563 14,44 9, Jul. 28 2,637 45,917 9,31 22, Aug. 28 5,71 21,633 1,998 7, Sep. 28 2,253 39,915 15,177 1, Oct. 28 6,53 27,332 8,741 22, Nov ,987 45,226 6, 6, Dec. 28 5,314 6,58 5,79 5, Jan ,359 36,358 6,842 17, Feb. 29 9,672 22,47 7,791 5, Mar , 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Import of petrol - tonnes Cement sales - volume index Market prices of housing in the capital region - index 3 Market prices of housing - index Multi-flat houses Single-flat houses M Outside capital region Whole country M

6 6 Credit and debit card usage in million ISK Number of Number of Domestic Debit and Debit card Foreign credit Number Import of passengers overnight credit card credit card usage card usage of new cars, cif, to Keflavík stays in usage usage abroad in retail in Iceland regist. cars million ISK airport hotels 27 27,995 38, ,23 18,651 22,63 43,75 946,37 1,31, ,567 38,665 21,184 22,459 12,38 3, ,871 1,339,879 Mar ,345 2,8 16, ,619 3,16 59,144 88,162 Apr ,398 3,313 16,376 1,94 1,532 2,911 72,512 9,229 May 27 16,742 2,992 18,43 1,33 2,544 4,384 78, ,469 Jun ,874 3,192 19,113 1,861 3,3 4, , ,313 Jul ,72 2,98 19,33 2,871 2,154 3, , ,85 Aug ,594 6,75 2,56 3,72 2,141 4, ,48 186,146 Sep ,938 5,221 16,621 2,178 1,7 3,215 76,783 12,655 Oct ,432 5,431 18,788 1,423 1,97 3,833 81,267 18,791 Nov ,966 5,669 17,97 1,16 1,938 4,31 63,367 75,919 Dec ,595 5,664 22, ,42 3,299 53,57 53,637 Jan ,576 4,337 16, ,89 5,824 51,568 58,449 Feb ,682 4,775 16, ,551 3,64 52,85 77,63 Mar ,525 5,28 16,43 1,158 1,245 2,949 66,388 82,953 Apr. 28 2,17 5,449 16,418 1, ,2 62,75 91,89 May 28 18,291 5,698 17,644 1,5 1,535 3,578 74, ,925 Jun ,929 6,891 17,75 2,852 2,287 4,44 119, ,799 Jul ,81 6,618 18,17 4, ,79 13,913 22,158 Aug. 28 2,64 6,621 17,975 4, ,44 115,736 19,488 Sep ,875 6,89 17,598 3, ,85 71, ,446 Oct ,849 5,57 17,658 2, ,479 13,912 Nov ,27 3,69 15,75 1, ,647 77,495 Dec ,878 3,529 22,414 2, ,295 41,47 58,842 Jan ,4 3,297 16,65 2, ,49 31,964 54,751 Feb ,457 3,528 15,467 1, ,315 36,71 72,91 Mar ,198 25, Domestic credit card usage - million ISK 25, Domestic debit card usage - million ISK 2, 2, 15, 15, 1, 1, 5, 5, ,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Number of new registered cars M Number of passengers to Keflavík airport 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, M

7 7 Turnover by industry, based on VAT records, in million ISK Retail trade and Hotels and Communi- Other services Manufacturing Construction motor vehicles restaurants Transport cation NACE NACE NACE 45 NACE 5 & 52 NACE 55 NACE 6-63 NACE 64 & , , ,328 51, ,443 42, , ,43 25, ,465 53, ,477 46, ,554 Nov Dec 24 61,914 25,993 53,782 4,883 19,766 4,939 27,866 Jan Feb 25 49,519 15,891 41,484 3,944 17,338 4,496 19,739 Mar Apr 25 6,63 21,324 47,24 4,993 2,765 5,195 24,28 May Jun 25 64,966 25,76 55,68 6,76 25,39 5,316 26,268 Jul Aug 25 62,332 26,846 53,387 8,951 28,122 5,6 25,374 Sep Oct 25 69,493 29,52 52,256 6,144 25,494 5,477 26,54 Nov-Dec 25 8,925 34,121 6,891 5,794 22,386 5,329 3,845 Jan Feb 26 53,161 22,875 47,624 4,67 19,4 5,382 24,158 Mar Apr 26 74,133 3,32 54,19 6,83 23,242 5,663 27,946 May Jun 26 83,16 4,15 63,9 8,69 26,687 6,32 3,42 Jul Aug 26 82,149 39,984 59,57 1,391 26,391 5,614 32,258 Sep Oct 26 74,783 45,259 56,43 7,467 23,19 5,781 36,722 Nov Dec 26 76,33 43,631 65,62 6,783 21,17 6,68 39,297 Jan Feb 27 68,212 3,33 5,469 5,269 17,56 5,725 31,16 Mar Apr 27 79,358 37,123 58,298 7,332 2,193 6,536 34,33 May Jun 27 78,996 45,811 69,214 9,93 21,695 8,17 38,851 Jul Aug 27 72,878 46,794 69,791 12,385 27,728 7,36 36,356 Sep Oct 27 75,2 47,211 63,948 8,536 25,722 7,68 4,96 Nov Dec 27 75,77 48,91 73,68 7,789 21,545 7,66 44,84 Jan Feb 28 74,766 33,448 61,339 6,267 22,867 6,775 37,614 Mar Apr 28 1,625 42,22 59,949 7,43 26,553 7,86 4,616 May Jun 28 13,919 45,166 71,525 1,574 31,672 8,469 42,23 Jul Aug 28 15,52 46,221 66,672 13,394 35,355 7,697 43,29 Sep Oct ,188 44,755 61,586 8,778 35,994 7,925 45,768 Nov Dec ,43 38,552 63,394 7,51 32,36 8,432 49,36 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Turnover construction NACE 45 J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O Turnover retail tr. & sale of motor veh. NACE 5 & 52 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O , 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Turnover communication NACE 64 J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O , 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Turnover other services NACE & 9 93 J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O J-F M-J S-O

8 8 External trade, fob, in million ISK Fish Prices of Export Import Import of Import of catch, aluminium Oil price Balance of goods of goods consumer industrial volume (LME) (UK Brent 38) of trade total total durables supplies index USD/tonnes USD/barrel 27-9,59 35,96 395,155 18,67 155, , , ,81 472,656 17, , , Apr ,58 21,771 32,829 1,426 12, , May 27-9,486 24,23 33,715 1,595 12, , Jun. 27-9,522 23,15 32,627 1,384 1, , Jul. 27-1,951 21,719 32,67 1,488 14, , Aug ,25 17,836 3,861 1,314 11, , Sept. 27-9,57 2,992 3,562 1,61 11, , Oct. 27-8,566 33,472 42,39 1,926 13, , Nov. 27 2,612 36,3 33,419 2,142 13, , Dec. 27-9,31 25,524 34,825 1,65 17, , Jan. 28-9,411 24,214 33,625 1,581 13, , Feb ,438 19,51 31,939 1,484 14, , Mar. 28-2,346 34,286 36,631 1,664 15, , Apr ,841 4,685 2,239 2, , May 28-2,522 47,571 5,93 1,522 21, , Jun. 28 2,252 41,349 39,97 1,254 2, , Jul ,867 34,171 57,39 1,431 32, , Aug. 28-3,182 31,324 34,56 1,83 2, , Sept. 28 7,877 5,236 42,359 1,569 24, , Oct ,177 47,416 36,239 1,175 21, , Nov. 28 2,551 43,181 4,63 1,452 25, , Dec ,177 53,991 29,814 1,21 17, , Jan ,568 33, , , Feb. 29 5,941 32,35 26, , , Mar. 29 8, , , , ¹ Preliminary figures. 24, 18, 12, 6, -6, -12, -18, -24, Balance of trade - million ISK M ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Import - consumer durables, fob, million ISK Fish catch - volume index ,4 3, 2,6 2,2 1,8 1,4 1, Prices of aluminium (LME) - USD/tonnes M

9 9 Quarterly average (from 23) Real Labour force Unemploy- Number of Central government finance, million ISK Wage wages, participation ment employed Total Total Revenue index index % % persons revenue expenditure balance , ,66 369,583 84, ,6 444, ,75-6,999 Feb ,8 35,811 28,689 7,122 Mar ,64 27,794 3,811 Apr ,73 29, May ,1 38,212 31,32 6,99 Jun ,797 3, Jul ,965 28,61 5,94 Aug ,9 33,218 34,915-1,698 Sep ,481 29,39 5,92 Oct ,373 27,982 6,391 Nov ,3 34,541 31,68 3,473 Dec ,575 42,658 22,917 Jan ,587 31,597 24,99 Feb , 39,235 28,837 1,48 Mar ,13 33,143-1,139 Apr ,953 31,631 1,322 May ,5 33,668 33, Jun ,117 38,631-7,523 Jul ,59 39, Aug ,8 3,163 44,823-14,66 Sep ,8 36,684 1,396 Oct ,991 37, Nov , 23,336 36,76-13,37 1 Dec ,18 59,231-7,213 Jan ,117 38,916 16,21 Feb ,47 41,534-6,65 1 Figures without the central government s debt assumption of billion ISK Wage index Real wages - index Central government, total expenditure - million ISK 7, See footnote 1 above for 6, December 5, 28 4, 3, 2, 1, , 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, Central government, revenue balance - million ISK See footnote 1 above for December

10 1 Explanatory notes and references References are quoted for data originating outside Statistics Iceland. GDP growth rate, %. Change in the volume of gross domestic product each quarter as compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Seasonally adjusted growth rate is also presented, showing quarterly growth on previous quarter. Consumer price index and Consumer price index less housing cost. May 1988=1. Price collection takes place for at least one week in the middle of a month (from January 28 onwards). Until year 27 the prices were collected the first two weekdays of the month. Yearly averages are converted by middle month indices. Harmonized index of consumer prices. 25=1. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is compiled for all EEA-member states. It differs in scope from the Icelandic CPI. The main difference is that imputed rent for owner occupied housing is included in the Icelandic CPI but not in the HICP. On the other hand, expenditure of foreign visitors in Iceland and expenditure of people living in hospitals and similar institutions are included in the HICP but not in the Icelandic CPI. Building cost index. June 1987=1. The index is compiled at the middle of each month. Producer price index. 4 th quarter 25 = 1. The producer price index measures changes in prices received by producers for their products. Fish catch, volume index. The volume index is an annual chain-linked index, having the monthly average of 24 as a reference period. The base year each time is T-2. Aluminium production, tonnes. Source: Producers. Milk received by dairies. Thousand litres. Milk from farmers received by dairies. Source: Icelandic Dairy Association. Milk sales from dairies. Thousand litres. Sale of milk, cream, skimmed milk and other liquid milk products. Source: Icelandic Dairy Association. Milk processing converted by protein content. Processed milk products other than milk, cream, skimmed milk and other liquid milk products converted into thousand litres on the basis of protein content. Source: Icelandic Dairy Association. Sale of meat in tonnes. Lamb, beef, pork, poultry. Includes sales of domestic produce but not imported meat nor game. Source: Association of Icelandic farmers. Electricity consumption. Gigawatt-hours. Divided into consumption by power-intensive industry which is defined as aluminium and ferrosilicon production. All other consumption is considered general use. Source: National Energy Authority. Import of fuel in tonnes. Petrol, gas oils, fuel oils and jet fuel derived from the external trade statistics. Cement sales. Index 199=1. Sale of domestic and imported cement. Source: Producers and importers. Market prices of housing. Indices, March 2=1. The indices are sub items from the CPI based on housing sales contracts collected by the Land Registry of Iceland. Credit and debit card usage. Million Icelandic krónur (ISK). The figures show total household expenditure by credit and debit cards usage. Withdrawals at ATM s and payments made in banks are not included in domestic usage but are included in usage abroad. Sources: VISA Iceland and MasterCard.

11 11 Number of new car registrations. Includes both new and used cars. Source: The Icelandic Federation for Motor Trades and Repairs. Import of cars. Cif-value, million ISK. Number of passengers to Keflavík Airport. The total number of visitors, Icelandic and foreign, arriving by air at Keflavík international airport. Transit passengers are not included in these figures. Source: Civil Aviation Administration, Keflavík Airport. Number of overnight stays in hotels. Covers hotels that are operated throughout the year. Turnover by industry. Million ISK. The figures show total turnover according to VAT returns for every two VAT-accounting months. The turnover excludes VAT. Break-down by industry is based on the Statistics Iceland activity code, ÍSAT 95 which corresponds to NACE rev. 1. External trade. Fob-value in ISK. Price index of marine products. Reference 4th quarter 25=1. Based on monthly data from a sample of producers on value and quantity of goods sold and export records from Statistics Iceland. Prices of aluminium (LME). Average montly price of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange. Source: The National Power Company. Oil price (UK Brent 38). Average monthly price of a barrel of North-Sea oil. Source: Olíufélagið hf. Wage index. December 1988=1. Refers to average wages each month. Real wages. Index 2=1. Refers to the change in the wage index deflated by the CPI converted to mid-month figures. Labour force participation, unemployment and number of employed persons. The figures show results from the labour force sample survey (LFS) of Statistics Iceland. From 23 onwards, the LFS is continuous and renders quarterly results. Sample size is 4, persons each quarter. In the period the LFS was carried out twice each year, in April and in November. Labour force participation: The total labour force (employed and unemployed) as a proportion of the total population years of age. Unemployment: The number of unemployed as a proportion of the labour force. Number of employed persons: Total number of persons engaged in any kind of work for payment, including self-employed. Central government finance. Total revenue, total expenditure and revenue balance. Million ISK. Cash basis. Source: Government Accounting Office.

12 Hagtíðindi Short term indicators Statistical Series Vol. 94, No :4 ISSN ISSN (paper) ISSN (pdf) Telephone +(354) Fax +(354) Price EUR 7 Subscription EUR 67 Supervision Guðrún Þórdís Guðmundsdóttir gudrun.gudmundsdottir@statice.is Statistics Iceland Borgartún 21a 15 Reykjavík Iceland Please quote the source.