Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Economic and Monetary Conditions, March Real Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Transcription

1 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March Supply Farm income continued to decline from the same period last year albeit at a decelerated rate, attributed mainly to decreased agricultural prices which outweighed the expansion in agricultural production. Manufacturing production expanded from the same period last year. The overall services sector continued to expand from the same period last year, particularly in trade sector. Nominal Farm Income () H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Nominal farm income P - Agricultural productionp Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data Real Farm Income Index sa ( = ) Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma 7 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT (%YOY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 11 Food & Beverages 2.2 Automotives - Passenger Cars - Commercial Vehicles - Engine Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals 8.2 IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive 3.2 Petroleum Others 16.5 MPI MPI sa % from last period H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar P Mar P P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics (Cont) Mar P (%MoM) Index sa ( = ) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Export < 3% 3% < Export < % Export > % Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand %MoM sa.2% -1.5%.3% 1

2 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) %MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand 1.6% -2.3%.7% (%) Weight 211 Food & Beverages 2.2 Automotives Rubbers & Plastics Chemicals 8.2 IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Hard Disk Drive 3.2 Petroleum Others 16.5 CAPU sa Capacity Utilization (sa) P = Preliminary data. Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar p ( = ) 13 Trade Sector Transportation Sector Business Services Communication Sector (RHS) Registration Fee for Real Estate (RHS) Services Sector Indicators ( = ) 1 Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand. Share in GDP : Trade (15.2%), Transportation and Communication (1.3%), Real Estate and Business Services (8.2%) Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department,and Department of Land ( = ) Other Services Sector Indicators Number of Foreign Tourists Thai Visitors BTS Ridership (Sky Train) Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand, Department of Tourism, The Transport Co. Ltd., Bangkok Mass Transit System, calculated by Bank of Thailand 2

3 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area* Thousand units,sa 25 Low-rise residents Condominium Total * seasonally adjusted by BOT Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand units,sa 45 Low-rise residents Condominium Total Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT Index (29 = ) 2 Single house 1 Condominium Source BOT 213 Housing Price index Townhouse Land

4 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2.2 Domestic demand Private consumption indicators expanded from the same period last year in almost all categories, However, fundamental factors supporting the overall household purchasing power remained soft. Private investment indicators declined due to the contraction from investment in machinery and equipment, partly from last year s high base effect. Public spending decreased from capital spending, while current spending continued to expand. Private Consumption Indicators % YoY H1 Q3 Q4 P Feb Mar P Mar P (%MoM) Non-durable Index Semi-durable Index Durable Index Service Index E. E (less) Net tourist spending Private Consumption Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data Durable Index and Semi-durable Index ( = ) Semi-durable Index Durable Index ( = ) Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index ( = ) Fuel Index P (RHS) 13 Nielsen s FMCG Index excl. Alcohol and Tabacco P = Preliminary Data Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index ( = ) 13 7 Service Index Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS ( = ) 1 Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales ** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad 1 Consumer Confidence Index (Current) Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = 5) Agriculture Non-Agriculture 1 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) H1 Q3 Q4 P Feb Mar P MarP (%MoM) E.9 E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales E. E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators Private Investment Index Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Source : Bank of Thailand 4

5 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March Index sa ( =) Equipment Indicators Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand Index sa ( =) Construction Indicators Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms. Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand 1, m 2, 9mma 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 5) 5 4 BSI 3 Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Jun Central government expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht 1 1 Average Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Capital Expenditure 4 2 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Mar Billion Baht (4.3% YoY) Mar Billion Baht (-14.9% YoY) Billion Baht FY FY P FY P FY P Revenue Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Feb Mar () Expenditure 1/ () Budgetary B/L Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing Treasury B/L Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source: Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand Government Revenue (by Collection Tax Base) Share Billion Baht Fiscal Year FY FY P FY P FY P avg Year Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Feb Mar 1. Tax Income. 2 2 PIT. 2 2 CIT Consumption Tax VAT Excise Tax Int'l Trade Non-tax Total Revenue Net Revenue 2 2 Note: Net Revenue excluded Customs Refund, Allocation for Local Government, and VAT allocation for Provincial Administration Organizations. Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Revenue Department 5

6 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 3 The global economy and external sector The current account continued to post a surplus as contributed from the growth in the value of merchandise exports and tourism receipts. The capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the assets and liabilities positions. Diffusion index (Unchanged = 5) Source: ISM, Markit Economics G3 Manufacturing PMI US Euro area Japan ( = ) 7 Asian Export Performance Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil and gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand KR PH TH CN INDO TW MY SG Feb = 19.8 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.5 Bn USD Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical Appliances Automotive Machinery & Equipment Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold - Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related - Export Growth Share P P Mar = 22.1 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 21.7 Bn USD P P H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Mar (%MoM) Feb = 17.5 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.7 Bn USD Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Capital Others Total (BOP Basis) Ex. Gold Share P P Import Growth Mar = 19. Bn USD Ex.Gold = 17.5 Bn USD P P H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Mar (%MoM) %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis. Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data 6

7 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March Financial Account Million USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar E 1. Assets TDI - Equity Thai portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits 2. Liabilities FDI - Equity Foreign portfolio investment - Equity sec. investment - Debt sec. investment Loans Other investments - Trade credits Total financial flows (1+2) Balance of Payments Billion USD P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar E Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.) Services & income Current account Capital and financial account Government Central bank ODCs Others Net error & omissions Overall balance International reserves Net forward position Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin Inbound Tourists Index Share China Malaysia Asia ex. China & Malaysia Russia Europe ex. Russia Others 14.8 Total. (million persons) Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar P (8.8) (9.3) ( ) ) %MoM sa Index sa ( = ) Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand 7

8 -17 Apr Oct Apr Oct Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, March 2.4 Monetary and financial conditions Total corporate financing increased from the previous month, mainly from increased funding through the issuance of debt securities. New credit extended to corporates expanded at a slightly slower pace. As at end of month, the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the NEER slightly appreciated. Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % p.a. /17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 /18 2 Apr 18 2-month deposit rate Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MRR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya % p.a and ThaiBMA Government Bond Yields As of 2 Apr 18 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 1Y Billion baht Change in Total Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value, ThaiBMA, SET New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht % MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS) Household Business

9 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 9-Apr-18 3-Dec Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Apr May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun Aug-16 7-Sep Sep Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec Dec Feb-17 2-Mar Mar Apr May-17 1-Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov Nov Dec Feb Feb Mar-18 9-Apr-18 Economic and Monetary conditions, March Index (212 = ) Appreciation USDTHB (RHS) Exchange Rates 2 Apr 2 8 USDTHB = 3.32 NEER25 = NEER25 Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand USDTHB (reverse) % 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5%.5% -.5% -1.5% -2.5% Changes in Trading Partners Currencies per USD.% -.2% -.2% -.1% -1.5% %MoM ( vs Feb 18) %MTD (2 Apr 18 vs ).1%.1% -.8%.2% -1.4%.6% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand.8%.8%.9% 1.% 1.1% -.4% -.3% -1.4% -.2% -.4%.1% 1.4% 1.9% -.8% -.8% AUD PHP TWD IDR INR THB CNY JPY EUR SGD GBP MYR KRW Regional Exchange Rate Volatility % p.a. 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % THB CNY IDR KRW MYR PHP As of 2 Apr Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand 9

10 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2.5 Financial stability Headline inflation accelerated due mainly to increase in retail petroleum prices. Core inflation remained the same as the previous month. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate decreased slightly from last month. External stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets Contribution to Headline Inflation Fresh Food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core Inflation (72.56%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Headline Inflation.79% -3 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (19.62%) Food and Beverage ex. Alcohol (28.17%) Other Goods and Services (52.21%) ( ) Share in Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Core Inflation.63% % Unemployment rate 1.2 % Unemployment rate (sa) 1.1 % Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO ( =) Employment Index Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%) Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%) Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census. ( ) denotes share in total employment Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT 1

11 Economic and Monetary Conditions, March External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P P Mar18 - Feb18 Change H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar E Total 1. General government Central Bank* Other Depository Corporations (ODC) Other Sectors Other Financial Corporations (OFC) Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) Debt / GDP (%) < / Debt / XGS 1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average) Severely indebted countries Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Criteria P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar E 11