Trade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS)

Transcription

1

2 14,000 RM Million % change y-o-y , , , , , ,000 (10.0) 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Trade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS) (20.0) Source: DOSM

3 % change y-o-y (5.0) (25.0) Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Total Imports Capital goods Intermediate Consumption Source: DOSM

4 % of GDP (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Direct Invest Abroad FDI In Malaysia Net investment Source: DOSM

5 Sector Primary Manufacturing Services Total Jan- June Number of Projects ,974 2,294 Potential Employment ,904 39,549 61,934 Total Investment (RM Million) 7,266 17,020 41,075 65,361 Domestic Investment 4,384 7,438 33,886 45,707 Foreign Investment 2,882 9,582 7,189 19,654 Number of Projects ,369 5,143 Potential Employment ,120 88, ,064 Total Investment (RM Million) 8,229 58, , ,793 Domestic Investment 4,925 31, , ,706 Foreign Investment 3,304 27,417 28,366 59,087 Source: MIDA

6 % change y-o-y (5.0) (10.0) Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 IPI Mining Manufacturing Electricity Source: DOSM

7 USD billion As at 31 Oct International Reserves: USD101.5 Billion Retained import, (RHS): 7.6 months Reserves/Short-term external debt, (RHS): 1.1 times Months/Times Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Source: BNM

8 Index Nov. 2017: /1/17 17/1/17 2/2/17 17/2/17 3/3/17 17/3/17 31/3/17 14/4/17 2/5/17 17/5/17 31/5/17 15/6/17 3/7/17 17/7/17 31/7/17 14/8/17 28/8/17 14/9/17 29/9/17 13/10/17 30/10/17 13/11/17 Note: *CNY, SGD, JPY, USD, THB Source: BNM

9 RM SGD THB100 CNY JPY100 Index Nov /1/17 17/1/17 2/2/17 17/2/17 3/3/17 17/3/17 31/3/17 14/4/17 2/5/17 17/5/17 31/5/17 15/6/17 3/7/17 17/7/17 31/7/17 14/8/17 28/8/17 14/9/17 29/9/17 13/10/17 30/10/17 13/11/17 Source: BNM

10 % change y-o-y Ppt. contribution 26.0 Sep Non Core Inflation : 3.3% (RHS) Core Inflation : 1.0% (RHS) 16.0 Headline Inflation : 4.3% 14.0 Non-Food : 4.2% Food and non-alcoholic beverages : 4.6% Transport : 15.8% (2.0) (6.0) (4.0) (10.0) (14.0) Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 (8.0) (12.0) Source: DOSM

11 Sep persons Total labour force : 15,058.8 (LHS) % 15,200 15,100 15,000 14,900 14,800 14,700 14,600 14,500 14,400 14,300 14,200 14,100 Unemployment rate : 3.4% (RHS) Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep Source: DOSM

12 Indicator Month-on-month Sep-17 Aug-16 Change % Year-on-year Sep-16 Change % Labour Force ('000) 15, , , Employed ('000) 14, , , Unemployed ('000) (0.5) Outside labour force ('000) 7, ,138.4 (0.2) 7, Labour force participation rate (LFPR) (%) Unemployment rate (%) Source: DOSM

13 36.0% 2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 33.5% 2, % 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % , CE-GDP ratio initially is found to be extremely low. CE-GDP ratio is targeted to be at 40% by At the current growth rate of the ratio, the target won t be met. CE or workers salary needs to increase gradually. Source: DOSM

14 80, , , , , , , Productivity needs to increase gradually for CE to increase. Productivity is targeted to reach RM92K by At the current rate of change, the target won t be met. Source: DOSM

15 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Services Average productivity level RM78.2K is substantially determined by extreme value that of mining and quarrying Excluding the sector, the average productivity level is merely RM66.6 The recent stagnation may be due to non-performing of the mining and quarrying sector Source: DOSM

16 Mahir Separuh Mahir Berkemahiran Rendah Proportion of high skilled and medium skilled labor categories stagnated. But that of low skilled, which mostly unskilled, category increased. A challenging situation to improve productivity and CE. Also a challenging situation to support industrial revolution 4.0 Source: DOSM

17 2,500,000 2,300,000 2,100,000 1,900,000 1,700,000 1,500,000 1,300,000 1,100, , , , Estimated percent of the labor force are foreign workers. The exact total number of foreign workers is unknown but is estimated by more than double that of the registered. Some of them are medium skilled workers and almost all the low skilled, including the unskilled, workers are them. Source: DOSM

18 BCI and CSI: points GDP BCI CSI GDP (% y-o-y) Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

19 points BCI down from points to points Poor manufacturing sales Slowdown in production Lower domestic and export orders Higher expected export sales and production level in the next quarter 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

20 u Brighter prospects for the manufacturing outlook in the next quarter u Local sales are expected to improve in the next three months u Prices in the next quarter on the rise u Expected export orders accelerating u Production to expand in the coming months u Labour conditions to be unexciting u Wages are expected to decrease further

21 points Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 CSI retreats 3.6 points q-o-q to 77.1 Consumers remain wary on jobs and incomes

22 u Income outlook soft u Fewer job openings up for grabs u Price pressures expected to build up u No let up in shopping plans

23 u Global production is trending upwards during the 2H2017; Jan2 017: mbpd; Nov 2017: mbpd u OPEC production also rising; Jan 2017: mbpd; Nov 2017: mbpd u Non-OPEC production rising as well; Jan 2017: mbpd; Nov 2017: mbpd u Average Prices (Brent) Jan-Oct 2017: US $53/barrel u Expected prices : US$52-55/barrel ; 2018: US$55-60/barrel

24 u El Nino effect is ceased; CPO production rising in 2017; Jan-Oct 2017: 16.1 million tons; Jan-Oct 2016: 14.3 million tons u CPO prices are higher in 2017 (RM2.6K/ ton-rm3.3k/ton) compared to 2016 (RM2.2K/ton-RM3.2K/ton) u Exports (CPO + PPO): Jan-Oct 2016: 13.4 million tons; Jan-Oct 2017: 13.8 million tons u India imposing tariff on edible oils

25 % change y-o-y p 2017e 2018f DOS MIER Note: p preliminary, e estimate, f forecast Source: DOSM, MIER

26 6.0 % Inflation Unemployment Rate p 2017e 2018f Note: p preliminary, e estimate, f forecast Source: DOSM, MIER

27 u Real GDP for 3Q2017 grew by 6.2% u Growth is supported by the surge in private consumption & GFCF of the domestic demand and export demand u Private consumption grew at stronger pace, recording 7.2% in 3Q17 (1Q17: 6.6%; 2Q17: 7.1%) u Private investment in 3Q2017 expanded by 7.9% u Exports up by 11.8%; imports up by 13.4%

28 u NCAB of BOP widened to TM12.5 bil. (2Q17: RM9.6 bil.) u Unemployment rate in Sep 2017: 3.4% (Sep 2016: 3.5%) u Average Headline inflation rates in the first nine months of 2017 is 4.0%

29 u External demand is expected to improve as world trade improves u Some Major economies growing faster than expected outweigh those growing slower than expected u Commodity exporting economies are expected to grow faster as commodity prices improved u IMF forecasts world trade volume for this year to grow at 4.2% and 4.0% next year (2016: 2.4%) u World growth: 2016: 3.2%; 2017: 3.6%; 2018: 3.7%

30 u u u u u u Domestic demand will continue to be the engine of growth in 2017 Buoyant external demand boost up domestic demand Expansionary fiscal policy to boost spending in 2017 & accommodative monetary policy continues High inflation expectation due to the expansionary macroeconomic policy GFCF is expected to improve by 4.1% as both Private and public investment surge Government spending to improve production capacity

31 % growth, year-on-year DOS BNM MOF MIER p 2017 f 2017 e 2018 f 2017 e 2018 f Real GDP By Expenditure Components: Private Consumption Public Consumption (0.2) Gross Investment Private Investment Public Investment (1.1) (0.5) (3.1) Domestic Demand Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services By Economic Activity: Agriculture Sector 1.3 (5.1) Mining Sector Manufacturing Sector Construction Sector Services Sector Note: p preliminary, e estimate, f forecast Source: DOSM, BNM, MOF (*ER 2017/2018), MIER

32 Net (RM Billion) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2017* 2018* Current Account (% of GNI) Goods & Services Goods Services (5.7) (3.8) (4.2) (5.4) (19.1) (6.2) (5.0) (18.8) (22.7) Primary Income (6.4) (8.3) (10.7) (9.2) (34.6) (9.9) (8.2) (40.1) (41.0) Secondary Income (4.9) (5.0) (4.6) (4.1) (18.6) (3.9) (4.2) (17.9) (17.7) Capital Account (0.0) (0.0) Financial Account (5.8) (14.2) (1.1) (8.8) Direct Investment (7.1) - - Abroad (11.7) (4.0) (5.3) (12.0) (33.1) (8.7) (15.4) - - In Malaysia Portfolio Investment (10.6) (19.1) (15.4) (31.9) Financial Derivatives (0.1) (1.2) (0.8) 0.6 (0.3) - - Other Investment (10.7) (1.3) - - Net Error & Omissions (41.6) (5.5) (13.2) 1.7 (14.3) - - Overall Balance (27.6) (1.8) International Reserves (USD) Retained import (months) Res./S-term external debt (times) Source: DOSM, BNM, MOF (*ER 2017/2018)

33 u u u u u u u Unexpectedly aggressive monetary policy normalization Less expansionary than expected fiscal stimulus Insufficient investment among larger emerging and low income economies impedes growth potentials Larger than expected fiscal stimulus in major economies Contagious effect of Brexit The return of protectionism Slower than expected slowdown in China and emerging economies weaken global-demand

34 u u u u u u u Unresponsive/less sensitive fiscal and monetary expansionary measures in major developed economies Upward stickiness of oil prices slows down the recovery of oil-exporting countries Slower than expected recovery in the advanced economies Prolonged geopolitical conflicts Prolong undervalued ringgit Rising both public and private debts Unresponsive/less responsive fiscal and monetary expansionary policy

35