ASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack

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1 ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 austera@anz.com Internet: 1

2 Major revisions to global forecasts over the past month 2 Federal Reserve now expected to continue raising rates ¼ pc pt at each FOMC meeting for longer than previously thought implying funds rate at 4¼% by end-25 (previously 3¾%) and peaking at 5% (previously 4%) in 26 US dollar now seen as bottomed against freely-floating currencies (,, C$, A$, NZ$ etc) sooner and at lower levels than previously US will find it easier to finance its current account deficit through borrowing from foreign private sector lenders given higher interest rate profile US$- now not expected to reach low of $1.4, but instead to strengthen from mid-year onwards to $1.17 by end-25 A$ and NZ$ to fall further and sooner against US$, to US66 and 58 by end-25, and 62 and 53.5 by end-26 largely reflects much narrower interest rate differentials in these currencies favour due to higher US rate profile Australian 25 GDP growth revised from 2.25% to 2.4%, 26 down from 3.5% to 3.1% largely reflects stronger than expected employment growth

3 Hong Kong adjusts exchange rate regime by introducing two-way way peg HK$/U 7.9S$ HK$/U S$ "One-way" peg of HK$7.8/US$ moves to "two-way" with floor of HK$7.75 introduced and ceiling rising to HK$7.85/US$ by 2 June this looks suspiciously like a currency band Jan- 93 Will rate differential come back into alignment? Jul- 94 Jan- 96 Jul- 97 Jan- 99 Jul- Jan- 2 Jul- 3 Jan- 5 Spot rate Ceiling Floor HIBOR US LIBOR 3

4 Highlights of Asian forecasts 4 Growth will slow from 8.2% in 2 to 7.3% in 25 and 6.6% in 26 China is still top of the charts, but leading indicators show potential for soft landing Slowdown in US and China means growth more dependent on domestic investment and consumption, including rising services sector A$ strengthened against regional currencies in 2 but this should reverse in Our forecast is for the A$ to weaken against the US$/Asian currency crosses due to softer commodity prices and Australian growth We do not anticipate a revaluation of the CNY in 25 but possibly in 26 this week s shift in the HK$ is interesting as a trial balloon Korean official says intervention against US$ will cease but similar comments have been made before Interest rates in Asia may rise marginally more in H1, but will not keep pace with monetary tightening in G7 A reversal of foreign capital inflows will stem the extraordinary liquidity, and falling commodity prices will allow PPI to decline Loose monetary policy will help boost domestic demand, which will need to contribute more to GDP next year; some SE Asian economies also need a strong dose of investment

5 World economy is slowing but from a very fast pace to a fast pace OECD LEI monthly changes % change from previous month 3 5 OECD leading indicator fell in February, after three consecutive increases around the turn of the year We expect global growth to slow from 5% (fastest since 1976) in 2 to 4% this year and next (still above long-term trend of 3¾%) World GDP growth % change from previous year

6 Softening oil prices indicate both rising stocks in the US and declining industrial demand Mn barrels Mn barrels Crude oil prices US$/bbl US$/bbl World IP and the OECD leading indicator % change from year earlier OECD composite leading indicator, 4 months forward Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-5 Apr-5 US oil stocks (LHS) W T I US$/bbl (RHS) Sources: Bloomberg; American Petroleum Institute; ANZ World industrial production (3-mth moving average)

7 An overall slowdown reduces risks, but rebalancing would be ideal scenario Rising US interest rates will cool economy Reversal of weak US$ would dampen consumer spending US short term rates back to neutral ie 4.5% H1 26 Can Euroland step up? Leading indicators still weak but Germany avoided recession in Q1 Asia s outlook will depend on domestic demand Japan s Q1 GDP growth 5.3% YOY double consensus forecast on retail demand China s growth moderating despite headline GDP data 7Source: Datastream, ANZ Bank f 26f US Japan Asia ex-japan Euro

8 18 15 China s economy still sending mixed signals as investment and imports are down.. Contributions to Nominal GDP growth Net Exports Fixed Investment Gov't consumption Household consumption Inventories / Residual % Real GDP growth (LHS) Imports growth (RHS) e 25f f -1 8Source: Datastream, ANZ Bank

9 But energy prices are keeping PPI high Measures of inflation % CPI (qtr ave) PPI (qtr ave) GDP Deflator The CPI understates inflation pressures because of price controls and administered transport and utility tariffs Nonetheless, cheaper food pushed CPI down to 1.8% in April, well below forecasts The PPI rate of 5.8% last month is mainly due to oil prices and is a risk to the inflation outlook The implicit GDP deflator a broad measure of inflation fell from 8.7% in December to 5.6% in March New property taxes have already cooled speculation in Shanghai real estate market 9 Source: Datastream

10 Tight control of liquidity is the root cause of deceleration, and this should continue f Current account Net equity Other flows * Errors and omissions Jun-95 Sep-96 Dec-97 Mar-99 Jun- Sep-1 Dec-2 Mar- Mar International reserves US$ bn (LHS) M2/GDP 1 *Other private creditors, commercial banks, official creditors and net residential lending abroad Source: IIF Source: Datastream

11 Asia s dependence on China has grown; US + China account for 35% of export market % of total exports China's Trade with Asia Korea US 18.5 China 15.1 US 17.8 China Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Note: Exports to China include exports to Hong Kong Sources: IMF; Taiwan, ROC: Bureau of Foreign Trade Exports to Asia Imports from Asia Source: Datastream

12 China and US slowdown are affecting whole region East Asia IP and composite leading indicator % change from year earlier Industrial production (excl. Japan and China) Asian composite leading indicator* (6 mths forward) * Weighted LEI for Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia Sources: OECD; Datastream; ANZ East Asian exports % change from year earlier Exports excl China & HK 3mma % ch YOY 1 2 3

13 Despite central banks efforts to keep regional currencies in line with CNY Korean won Japanese Yen Dec- 3 Won per US$ (inverted) Apr- Aug- Dec- Mar Dec- 3 Y per US$ (inverted) Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- 5 Singapore dollar Chinese yuan S$ per US$ (inverted) Yuan per US$ (inverted) 12-mth NDF* Spot rate Dec- 3 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- 5 Dec- 3 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar Note: charts show daily data from 31 Dec 23 onwards. * Non-deliverable forward contract. Source: Datastream.

14 Central banks actively controlled liquidity from extraordinary inflows in 2 Capital flows to Asia, ex-china (US$ bn) f Major foreign holders of US Treasuries (US$ bn) Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Q Current account Equity flows, net Private capital flows, net Other flows* *Official creditors and net residential lending abroad Source: IIF Japan China Korea Taiwan HK Singapore Thailand Rest of world Source: Datastream

15 Allowing interest rates to remain relatively low while credit growth ticked down Weighted average 3-month interest rates (%)* Real credit growth (% YOY) Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-5 May-5 Jun- Mar-1 Dec-1 Sep-2 Jun-3 Mar- Dec- *GDP weighted average of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore China Philippines Korea Indonesia Singapore Thailand 15 Source: Datastream, ANZ Bank

16 Fiscal policy has tightened, with growth coming from private consumption and capex 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Growth rates of real GDP components Q1 2 (% YOY sa) Q1 25 (% YOY) Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore* Thailand* Gross fixed investment Government consumption Private consumption Gross fixed investment Government consumption Private consumption * Q4 2 data 16 Source: Datastream

17 Will consumption and investment drive the region forward? Motor vehicle sales (% YOY) Passenger car sales (% YOY) Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 5 Feb- 5 Mar- 5-3 Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 5 Feb- 5 Mar- 5 Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Thailand 17 Source: Local sources via CEIC

18 Forecasting what neutral rates will be for Asian economies is difficult given history Rate forecasts (nominal 3m%) 8 ANZ forecasts FX forecasts ANZ forecasts Jan- 3 Oct- 3 Jul- Apr- 5 Jan- 6 Oct- 6 3 Jan- Jul- 1 Jan- 3 Jul- Jan- 6 Jul- 7 US 3m LIBOR GDP weighted average 3m Asian rates Australia 9-day bank bill A$/Asia FX trade weighted index US Fed's major currency index 18

19 Regional growth forecasts Oil prices (US$ per barrel) World GDP growth (%)* China Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Non-Japan East Asia * Non-Japan East Asia excl. China * *weighted *weighted GDP GDP at at PPP PPP exchange exchange rates rates

20 Caveat: the CNY 1. Most likely: do nothing this year No real domestic pressures for revaluation Economy already slowing; prices under control Slowdown in global growth and rise in global inflation and interest rates should ease existing pressures 2. Possibility: widen existing band Allow widening of existing +/-.3% band Gradual revaluation of up to 1% A 26 or 27 event 3. Possibility: weighted currency basket Some combination of USD, and Makes economic sense but authorities risk averse 4. Unlikely: one-off revaluation Negative impact on the economy Insufficient magnitude to correct terms of trade Not compatible with move toward market forces 2

21 Major risks in revaluation scenario Increase in speculative flows to Asia Liquidity trap exacerbated Global imbalances worsen; US CAD widens Depends on timing and execution of revaluation Sell-off of US Treasuries China and Japan hold US$898 bn of the US$3.8 tr outstanding US Treasury stock; China s holdings increased by $2 bn this year to February while Japan s decreased by US$9 bn Disorderly correction of US CAD US dollar sells off sharply and US import demand declines rapidly China s tradeables sector experiences downturn with negative impact on commodity demand Commodity prices drop sharply Rest of Asian region experiences downturn in demand Australia experiences real negative impact of declining commodities demand and CAD correction 21

22 Implications of revaluation for A$ Short term Greater probability of some A$ weakening as Asian currencies to strengthen in line with CNY Lesser probability that A$ strengthens as long Asian currency positions are unwound Short term Greater probability of more A$ weakening than in smaller revaluation; global positions unwound but unlikely to reverse net revaluation Lesser probability of an immediate reaction to commodity price dynamics that brings shortterm weakening 5-1% revaluation Long term 2%+ revaluation Greater probability that A$ regains some strength as China s commodities buying power rises and US demand remains strong Lesser probability that CNY rise lowers demand for Chinese exports and thus commodities; A$ does not regain strength Long term Greater probability of a drop in demand for Chinese exports that would lead to decline in commodity prices; A$ would weaken Very low probability that revaluation would be absorbed by exporters and have little impact on commodity prices 22

23 Regional currency forecasts Dec 2 Jun 25 Dec 25 Dec 26 US$ US$ - Yuan US$ - Won US$ - NT$ US$ - Rph US$ - Bt US$ - HK$ US$ - M$ US$ - S$ US$ - PP US$ - Dong

24 Cross rates with A$ forecasts Dec 2 Jun 25 Dec 25 Dec 26 A$ A$ - Euro A$ - Yuan A$ - Won A$ - NT$ A$ - Rph A$ - Bt A$ - M$ A$ - S$ A$ - PP A$ - Dong

25 Summary of key market forecasts Dec 2 * Jun 25 Dec 25 Dec 26 US Fed funds rate (% pa) US 1-year bond yield (% pa) US$ US$ US$ - Yuan RBA cash rate (% pa) Australian 1-year bond yield (% pa) A$ - US$ RBNZ cash rate (% pa) NZ$ - US$ A$ - NZ$ * actual

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05