Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

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1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 3 JANUARY 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON JANUARY 8) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group. Indonesia CPI accelerated to +3.6% YoY in December 7 Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted +3.6% YoY in December 7, accelerated from the previous month (+3.3% YoY). Looking at the breakdown, while Housing, Electricity, Gas and Fuel and Transportation, Communication and Finance (accounts for around % of total respectively) maintained roughly same rate of increase as previous month, Food (accounts for around %) accelerated. Inflation rate has remained within Bank Indonesia (BI) s targeted range (3-% YoY). Fitch Ratings upgraded Indonesia to BBB Fitch Ratings upgraded Indonesia s credit rating by a notch to BBB from BBB- in December, 7. Fitch had raised its outlook to positive in December 6. Fitch said in the statement that solid GDP growth and the government s structural reform were among the key rating drivers. Indonesia s credit rating is rated investment grade by all top three agencies after S&P raised the country s rating in May 7, and the upgrading by Fitch this time is expected to contribute to attract more investment inflow to the country (YoY, %) Others Chart: Consumer Price Transportation, Communication & Finance Housing, Electricity, Gas & Fuel Foods Former Policy Rate Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), BTMU CPI Current Policy Rate (Year) BBB+ 9 BBB8 BB+ 6 BB BBB- 7 BB- B+ 3 B B- Chart: Credit Rating Investment grade rating Fitch (left axis) Moody's (right axis) Upgraded rating Fitch: Dec 7 S&P (left axis) Changes in the last twelve months Upgraded outlook to positive Fitch: Dec 6 Moody's: Feb 7 Upgraded rating S&P: May (Year) Source: Bloomberg, BTMU Economic Research Office Baa Baa Baa3 Ba Ba Ba3 B B B3 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

2 . Malaysia Exports recorded high growth of +.% YoY in November 7 Exports (in MYR) recorded +.% YoY in November 7, maintained high growth. Looking at the breakdown, while Mineral Fuels, which accounts for around % of total, remained weak at.3% YoY, Machinery and Transport Equipment, which accounts for around % of total, showed solid growth of +.6% YoY. Looking at the breakdown by destinations, increase in exports to Asian region such as China, NIEs, ASEAN, lead the overall growth. CPI slowed to +3.% YoY in November 7 Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted +3.% YoY in November 7, decelerated from the previous month (+3.7% YoY). Core CPI was +.% YoY, also slowed down slightly from the previous month (+.3% YoY). Although consumer price has remained within the targeted range (3-% YoY), Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), in a statement at Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in November, referred to the possibility of considering reviewing the current degree of monetary accommodation given the strength of the global and domestic economic conditions as well as the current level (negative real interest rate) of Overnight Policy Rate (OPR). BNM had announced a similar statement prior to a rate hike in the past, which raised expectations of a rate hike in financial market. (YoY, %) Chart:Exports Others Misc Manufactured Articles Machinery and Transport Equipment Chemicals Mineral Fuels Food and Live Animals Total 6 3 (YoY, %) Chart : Consumer Price and Policy Rate Services (left axis) Fuels (left axis) Goods exc Fuels (left axis) CPI (Overall) (left axis) CPI (Core) (left axis) Policy Rate (right axis) (%) (Year) Note: The latest figure represents the average of Oct-Nov 7 Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, BTMU Economic Research Office (Year) - Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, BTMU Economic Research Office 3. Philippines FY8 Budget and tax reform bill enacted President Rodrigo Duterte signed the PHP3.767 trillion (+.% YoY) FY8 proposed budget and a tax reform bill on December 9, 7. The government continues to prioritize budget allocation in areas such as education and infrastructure, and aims to curb fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, the same level as the previous year, in prospect of tax revenue increase due to the tax reform. The tax reform bill, one of the comprehensive tax packages to secure state revenues for infrastructure investments, will offset the reduced tax revenue by lowering personal income taxes for lower-income group with raising taxes on automobiles, petroleum products and sugar-sweetened beverages, among others. The government has set the target of real GDP growth as +7-8% YoY prior to planning the budget, and it should be noted that budget Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

3 expenditure may be cut in case tax revenue is reduced. Current account returned to surplus in Jul-Sep 7 Current account recorded USDmillion in Jul-Sep 7, returned to surplus for the first time in six quarters. While trade deficit stayed around the same level as the previous quarter, surplus in the balance of services widened on the back of increase in credit in sectors such as Travel and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and made a positive contribution. (% of GDP) Chart:Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Chart: Current Account Balance (USD bn) (% of GDP) Current Account (right axis) Fiscal balance (right axis) Expenditures (left axis) Revenue (left axis) (Year) Note: 7 figure is a prospect, 8 onwards are proposed budgets Source: Republic of the Philippines Department of Budget and Management BTMU Economic Research Office Secondary Income Primary Income Balance on Services Trade Balance Current Account (Year) Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), BTMU Economic Research Office. Singapore Real GDP growth in Oct-Dec 7 (advance estimates) slowed to +3.% YoY, but maintained recovery trend Real GDP growth in Oct-Dec 7 (advance estimates) was +3.% YoY, slowed down from the previous quarter (+.% YoY) but maintained its recovery trend. Looking at the breakdown, Manufacturing recorded high growth of +6.% YoY mainly in Electronics sector, boosting the overall growth. Construction posted -8.% YoY, extending declines for the sixth consecutive quarter. Services was +3.% YoY, slowing down slightly from the previous quarter (+3.% YoY). Real GDP growth in full year of 7 recorded +3.% YoY, the highest level since. Employment decreased by -,3 QoQ in Jul-Sep 7 The number of employment was 3.67 million in Jul-Sep 7, decreased by -,3 from the previous quarter and contracted for the third consecutive quarter. Looking at the breakdown, Manufacturing was 89,, decreased by -, from the previous quarter and contracted for the third consecutive year as the industry showed decrease in sectors such as Transport Equipment and Materials while increased in Electronic, Computer & Optical Products and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. Construction was 6,6, decreased by -9, from the previous quarter and contracted for the fifth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, Services was.683 million, increased by +9, and maintained its increase. Looking at the breakdown of Services industry, the employment increased especially in highly specialized sectors such as Financial & Insurance Services, Education and Healthcare. 3 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

4 Real GDP Growth Annualised QoQ, % Chart : Real GDP 6 7 Q Q Q Q3 (YoY, %) Q advanced estimates (.3) (-.) (.6) (9.) (.8) 3 (QoQ, th) Chart : Employment Services Construction Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Construction Services Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) Singapore, BTMU Economic Research Office Source: Singapore Ministry of Manpower (MOM), BTMU Economic Research Office (Year). Thailand Private consumption (sa) accelerated to +.6% YoY in November 7 Private Consumption Index (PCI, seasonally adjusted) accelerated to +.6% YoY in November 7. Looking at the breakdown, Durables, such as motor vehicles, and Non-Residents Expenditure, backed by an increase in the number of international tourists, both showed high growth. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) posted 79. in December 7, rose to the highest level in around three years and the index which shows consumers readiness to spend on new cars also largely improved, suggesting that consumption will continue to increase. CPI slowed to +.8% YoY in December 7 Consumer Price Index (CPI) was +.8% YoY in December 7, decelerated slightly from the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, Tobacco & Alcoholic Beverages continued to boost the overall CPI due to a hike in retail prices as a result of the new excise tax law (took effect on September 6, 7) while Transport & Communication showed slower increase on the back of factors such as a slowdown in the pace of fuel price increase. Core inflation rate posted +.6% YoY, remained stable and low. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

5 7 6 (YoY, %) Chart : Private Consumption and Consumer Confidence Private Consumption Index (left axis) Consumer Confidence (right axis) (Points) (YoY, %) Chart : Consumer Price Others Transport & Communication Housing & Furnishing Food & Beverages CPI (Overall) CPI (Core) (Year) Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), BTMU Economic Research Office (Year) Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic indices Ministry of Commerce (MOC) Thailand, BTMU Economic Research Office 6. Vietnam Real GDP growth accelerated to +7.7% YoY in Oct-Dec 7 Real GDP growth was +7.7% YoY in Oct-Dec 7, slightly accelerated from +7.% YoY in Jul-Sep 7 and recorded +6.8% YoY in full year of 7, managed to achieve the government s annual target (+6.7% YoY). Looking at the full year growth by main industries, Manufacturing accelerated to +.% YoY (6: +.9% YoY), Services also maintained high growth of +7.% YoY (6: +7.% YoY). Meanwhile, Mining dropped to -7.% YoY (6: -.% YoY), fell well below the level of the previous year. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) implementation capital increased to USD 7. billion in 7 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) implementation capital increased steadily to USD 7. billion (+.8% YoY) in 7. FDI newly registered capital was USD.3 billion (+.3% YoY), and FDI registered capital, including additional investments and investments into/share acquisition of Vietnamese companies by foreign capital, was USD 3.8 billion (+.% YoY) both increased substantially, and the ongoing trend of investment expansion is expected to continue. Looking at the registered capital by countries, the capital from Japan was the largest, which recorded USD 9. billion (, cases), owing to major projects such as of oil development and thermal power generation. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

6 Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec (YoY YTD, %) Chart:Real GDP 3 Chart : Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (USD bn) USD 6.3bn FDI: Newly Registered Capital FDI: Implementation Capital Real GDP Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (%) Mining (7%) Manufacturing (7%) Construction (6%) Note: Cumulative YTD. Figures in brackets represent % of GDP (7) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, BTMU Economic Research Office Service (39%) (Month) Source: Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) Vietnam, (Year) BTMU Economic Research Office 7. India Ruling BJP won state assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat Prime Minister Narendra Modi s ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority of seats both in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat state assembly elections held in November and December, according to the results announced in December 8, 7. BJP was expected to win a landslide victory in the prime minister s home state of Gujarat, however, BJP lost the number of seats though it won a majority while Indian National Congress (INC), the largest opposition party, increased the seats. Although BJP maintains high approval ratings, the possible struggle by BJP in the forthcoming state assembly elections needs to be noted. Current account deficit narrowed to -.% of Nominal GDP in Jul-Sep 7 Current account balance was USD -7. billion (-.% of Nominal GDP) in Jul-Sep 7, deficit narrowed from the previous quarter as goods deficit narrowed due to deceleration in import growth and acceleration in export growth. Looking at financial account balance, FDI and Portfolio Investment maintained surplus. (Seats) Chart:State Assembly Elections 6 (% of Nominal GDP) Chart : Balance of Payments Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Indian National Congress (INC) Himachal Pradesh Others Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Indian National Congress (INC) Gujarat Others Source: Election Commission of India, BTMU Economic Research Office Current Account Portfolio Investment Error FDI Other Investment Overrall Balance 6 7 (Year) Source: Reserve Bank of India, Government of India Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, BTMU Economic Research Office 6 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

7 Appendix: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,36 3, Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (YoY, %) (.8) (.) (.) (3.9) (.6) (7.7) (6.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),3,9,6,79 83,76 9,76 7,36 87,696 9,33 96,9 (YoY, %) (-6.) (.9) (6.) (-.7) (7.8) (-.) (.) (-.6) Consumer Price Index* (YoY, %) (6.) (3.) (3.8) (3.6) (.3) (3.8) (3.) (3.7) (3.6) (3.3) (3.6) Exports (fob) (USD mn),366,7,69 39,8 3,,6,,8 (YoY, %) (-.6) (-3.) (.) (7.9) (.) (.7) (9.6) (3.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),69 3,63 36,66 3,7,76,78,, (YoY, %) (-9.9) (-.9) (.6) (.9) (.9) (3.) (3.8) (9.6) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,67 9,,88 3,76 3,,779, 7 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -7,9-6,79 -,333 -,83 -,337 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 3,68 3,93 8,66 9,99 6,8 6,8 3,3 BI Rate day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)*,868 3,39 3,36 3,36 3,39 3,33 3,38 3,38 3,9 3,7 3,7 Stock Index,6.9,93.,96.7,68.,89.7,9.9 6,3.7,9.9 6,.8,9. 6,3.7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 9, 6. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, BTMU Economic Research Office Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC GDP Per Capita (USD) 9,3 9,39 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (.) (.) (.6) (.8) ( 6.) Industrial Production Index (YoY, %) (.7) ( 3.8) (.3) (.3) (.9) (.7) ( 3.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 666,76 8,7,8 3,6,,98 7, 9,8 (YoY, %) (.) (- 3.) (7.3) (-.) (-.) (-.8) (-.8) (.) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (.) (.) (.3) (.) ( 3.8) (.3) ( 3.7) ( 3.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 99,88 89,798,36,66 6,36 8,97 9,6,3 (YoY, %) (-.9) (-.7) (.) (.) (6.) (.) (7.) (9.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 76,3 68,3 6,9 6,79 9,88 6, 6,987 7,67 (YoY, %) (-.7) (-.3) (.) (.) (3.9) (.) (9.3) (9.9) Trade Balance (USD mn) 3,3,,,7 6,,,69,387 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,69 6,9,8,6,938 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 93,979 93,7 93,879 97,39 99,63 99,63 99,93,36 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index,69.,6.7,796.8,7.,763.7,7.6,796.8,7.6,77.9,77.9,796.8 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 93 3 Population (person mn) Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC GDP Per Capita (USD),883,93 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (6.) (6.9) (6.) (6.7) (6.9) Industrial Production Index (YoY, %) (.) (.7) (.3) (3.8) (-.) (-.) (-6.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 33, 3,688 9,6,38 6,7 3, 36,,799 (YoY, %) (9.6) (.9) (3.) (.) (3.6) (9.) (7.3) (3.8) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (.) (.8) (3.) (3.) (3.) (3.) (3.3) (3.) (3.) (3.3) (3.3) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,87 7,6,8,766 6,9,66,39 (YoY, %) (-.3) (-.) (6.3) (.7) (8.) (.9) (7.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7,67 8,8,3,9,7 7,73 8, (YoY, %) (8.7) (8.3) (.) (.) (3.9) (.) (3.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -6,7-6,3-6,8-6,87 -,77 -,89 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 73,96 73,33 73,3 73,6 73,86 7,897 73,3 7,897 7,3 7,6 73,3 TB Rate Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index 6,9. 6,8.6 8,8. 7,3.7 7,83. 8,7. 8,8. 8,7. 8,36.3 8,. 8,8. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

8 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,638,98 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (.9) (.) ( 3.) (.) ( 3.) (.) ( 3.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (YoY, %) (-.) (3.7) ( 8.) ( 8.) ( 9.) (.6) (.) (.3) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI)(YoY, %) (.6) (.) (.7) (.) (.9) (-.) (-.) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (-.) (-.) (.6) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.6) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 9,86 66,9,88 6,7 8,73,79 3,7,89 (YoY, %) (- 6.) (-.) (6.9) (8.3) (.) (3.8) (.3) (9.6) Imports (cif) (SGD mn) 3,3 3,3 9,7,8,3 3,73 39,37,79 (YoY, %) (-.) (-.7) (.) (.9) (3.) (9.) (6.) (.7) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 68, 63,67 6,63 6,66 6,968,7,393,6 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 73,96 78,9,3 9,83,689 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,3 6,36 9,6 66,93 7, 7, 7,8 Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index,88.7,88.8 3,.9 3,7. 3,6. 3,9.9 3,.9 3,9.9 3,37. 3,33. 3,.9 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 6,8 6, Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) ( 3.) ( 3.3) ( 3.3) ( 3.8) (.3) Industrial Production Index (YoY, %) (-.) (.6) (.3) (-.) (.) (.6) (-.3) (.) Private Consumption Indicator (YoY, %) (.3) ( 3.7) (.9) (.9) (.8) (.6) (.7) (.6) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799,63 768,788,9 99,9,73 77,9 68, 78,8 (YoY, %) (-9.3) (-3.9) (.9) (6.6) (.) (.9) (3.) (.6) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (-.9) (.) (.7) (.3) (.) (.) (.9) (.9) (.9) (.) (.8) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn),6, 6, 6,88 6,633,873,,3 (YoY, %) (-.6) (.) (6.8) (7.9) (.) (3.) (3.) (.3) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 87,8 77,7 7,6 9,68,9 6,73 8,386 7,9 (YoY, %) (-.6) (-.) (.9) (.) (3.) (6.) (6.6) (.9) Trade Balance (USD mn) 6,798 36,39 8,8 6,,3,,6 3,33 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 3, 8,37,7 7,8 3,7 6,76 3,3,8 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -6,799 -,3-7, -, ,8 -,8 -, External Debt (USD mn) 3,78 3,9 36,,78 8,338 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),66 66,7 96, 7,69 79,3 9,977 96, 9,977 9,37 96,769 96, One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index,88.,.9,73.7,7.,7.7,673., Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 93 Population (person mn) Q Q Q3 Q SEP-7 OCT NOV DEC GDP Per Capita (USD),9,,38 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (6.7) (6.) (6.8) (.) (6.3) (7.) (7.7) Industrial Production Index (YoY, %) (9.8) (7.) (9.) (.) (8.) (9.7) (.) (3.) (7.) (7.) (.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 8,8 7,8 9,6 6,9 9,38 9,7,6,66 (YoY, %) (3.6) (3.3) (.9) (-.) (-.3) (-.) (-7.) (-7.6) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (.6) (.7) (3.) (.) (3.3) (3.) (.7) (3.) (3.) (.6) (.6) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 6,7 76,8 3,77, 3,9 6,78 9,83 9,3,9 9,99 9,3 (YoY, %) (7.9) (9.) (.) (.8) (.) (.6) (.) (.9) (3.) (.) (6.6) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 6,776 7,8,96 6,6 3,67 3,88 7,3 8, 8, 9,39 9,8 (YoY, %) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (3.3) (.8) (6.3) (.8) (.) (8.) (6.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -3,79,777,67 -,37 -,93,77,, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 96 8,3 -,69 7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8, 36,7 37,89 39,9 Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)*,93,36,78,7,7,73,77,77,7,78,7 Stock Index Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

9 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn),3,9,6 Population (person mn),67,83,99 FY FY FY6 FY7Q FY7Q FY7Q3 FY7Q SEP-7 Oct NOV DEC GDP Per Capita (USD),66,69,7 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (7.) (8.) (7.) ( 6.) (.7) ( 6.3) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (YoY, %) (.) (3.3) (.6) (3.) (.9) (3.) (.) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV),6,7,789,8 3,6,7 83,98 77,63 93,87 39,9 79,837 7,7 (YoY, %) (3.7) (7.3) (9.) (.) (.) (3.) (.3) (-.3) (.3) Wholesale Price Index (.3) (-3.6) (.8) (.) (.3) (.8) (3.) (3.6) (3.9) (YoY, %) (6.) (.9) (.) (3.6) (.) (3.) (3.3) (3.6) (.9) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 3,3 6,9 76, 76,97 7,696 7,9 8,636 3,98 6,96 (YoY, %) (-.3) (-.) (.) (8.) (8.8) (.9) (.8) (-.) (3.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 8,33 38,7 38,6,8 3,7 7,79 37,6 37,7, (YoY, %) (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (33.7) (8.) (8.) (7.6) (9.6) Trade Balance (USD mn) -37,68-8,77-6,93-7,8 -,778-3,89-8,96 -,9-3,89 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -6,73 -,88 -,9-3,33 -, -7,3 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 33,8 3,89 3,9 3,9 366, ,77 379,77 379,33 Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index 7,97,3 9,6 9,6 3,9 3,8 3,7 3,8 33,3 33,9 3,7 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, and Real GDP Grow th Rate are at - market price base. Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, BTMU Economic Research Office 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

10 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators 3 6 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,3,,33 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (6.) (7.) (7.3) (7.6) (7.) (6.9) (7.) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (.) (.) (.9) (.9) ( 3.9) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) , -,983 -,6 -,67 -,67 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,8 -, -,6-3,9-3,6-3,67-3, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 3, 3,,67,6,66 6,883 8,393 External Debt (USD mn) 3,68,7 6,83 7,3 7,96 9,39 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)*,8,9,33,7,38,68,9 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators 3 6 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 988,86,7,8,7,9, Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) 9.6 (.6) ( 7.3) ( 8.) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) ( 7.7) (.) (.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) ( 6.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn),963 -,633 -,8-6 -,887 -,3 -,88 Trade Balance (USD mn),8-9 -,6 -, -, -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),77 7, 6,96 8,, 3,86 NA External Debt (USD mn) 8,7 8,9 7,8 7, 6,3 6, NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* ,6.6,3.87 Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators 3 6 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,373 Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %).6 (6.) (6.) (6.) (6.) (6.6) (7.) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (7.3) (.9) (8.7) (6.8) (7.3) (6.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) 3,7 -,686-7,388,9 3,9,38 Trade Balance (USD mn) -7,8 -,6 -,7 -, -,8-9,97-9,6 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),6 8,,3 7,6,78 7,3 3,776 External Debt (USD mn) 6,88 7,77 8,9 33,997 3,66 38,6 NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators 3 6 Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),6,9,88,9,3,393, Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) (.6) (.7) (3.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) (.) (3.7) (.) (7.) (8.6) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -3,96 -,68 -,96-3,3 -,79-3,39 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,98 -, -,6-9,8 -, -,868-3,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),36,8,,6,87 7,83 9,6 External Debt (USD mn) 6,3 6, 6, 6,7 6,6 6,8 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, BTMU Economic Research Office Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

11 Appendix: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,83 7,7 9 87, ,88 8, , ,87 9, , ,3,3 9 3, ,9, , ,6,96 3 3,. Population (person mn) ,., ,3., ,., ,67., ,83., ,99., GDP Per Capita (USD) 3,78,,36,88,79,3,3,69 3,9,968,99 3,79,8,9,78 6,7,7,9 6,36 36,63,3,37 3 3,79,9,768 6,9 6,93,98,8 7, 38,3,97,9 3,8,89,89 7,7 6,7,,66 7,6,83,687 7,87 3,36 9,3,883 3,638 6,8,9,69 7,978,3,8 7,6 6 3,9 9,39,93,98 6,9,,7 8,97 3,3,6 7,7. Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY, %) Q Q Q Q Consumer Price Index (YoY, %) Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. India's Real GDP Growth Rate after FY are / and market price base. Figures before FY are - and factor cost base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, BTMU Economic Research Office Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8

12 6. Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , , Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , 38 Sep , Oct , Nov , External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78, ,383, ,, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 9, , ,7 3, , ,9, , ,3 3, , ,3 6 3, , ,6 7 3, , ,3 Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, BTMU Economic Research Office For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Chief Manager, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +8-()3-3-3 Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya<yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India 3 January 8