Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 2012

Transcription

1 Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 01

2 1.0 Economic performance Kenya s economy exped by.7 per cent in the third quarter of 01 compared.0 per cent growth recorded in the same quarter of 011 (see Figure 1 Tables 1 for details). The expansion was more robust in comparison to the preceding quarters of 01 primarily due to strong performances of the Agriculture forestry, Fishing, Manufacturing, Transport communication a turnaround in the performance of the Electricity industry. On the other h, Construction, Hotels restaurants, Mining quarrying experienced decelerated growths over the same period. Wholesale retail trade registered a strong growth despite being a deceleration compared to the corresponding quarter of 011. Seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product, which compares consecutive quarters, exped by. per cent in the third quarter of 01, which was significantly better than the 0.5 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 01. The period under review was characterized by low inflation rate, high interest rates stable exchange rate of the shilling against major world regional currencies. Inflation averaged at 6. per cent during the review period from a high 16.5 per cent experienced during the third quarter of 011. The ease in the inflationary pressures was mainly on account of lower food fuel prices. During the review period the exchange rate averaged at KSh 8.60, KSh 106. KSh against the US Dollar, Euro 100 Japanese Yen, respectively. Regionally, the Kenya Shilling exchanged at Tanzania Shilling 18.6 Uga Shilling 9.6 while the South African R averaged at KSh 10.. During the third quarter of 011, the exchanges rates were KSh 9.6, KSh 1.5 KSh1.9 against the US Dollar, Euro 100 Japanese Yen, respectively. High interest rates that prevailed during the quarter under review were on account of the Central Bank s sustenance of a tight monetary policy stance. Expansion in broad money supply slowed to 1.6 per cent during the review period compared to a growth of 18.0 per cent during a similar period of 011. Weighted interest rates on commercial banks loans advances rose significantly from an average of 1.1 per cent during the third quarter of 011 to 0.0 per cent in corresponding period of 01. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release

3 Figure 1: Third quarter growth rates.0 Sectoral analysis.1 Agriculture Forestry Agriculture sector started the year with poor prospects after a number of parts of the country suffered severe frost during the first quarter which negatively impacted on production of tea other vulnerable crops, while the delay in the onset of long rains led to suppressed agricultural activities. Consequently, the sector only managed a moderate growth of around.0 per cent during the first half of 01. During the third quarter of 01, however, the sector s performance improved substantially to 6.9 per cent compared to a paltry growth of 0. in the same quarter of 011. The remarkable growth was largely supported by improved well spread rains during the second third quarters of the year. Negative effect of the maize disease, mainly experienced in parts of the South Rift, were more than offset by the good rains in most parts of the country. Consequently, production of key crops including maize, beans, sugar cane fruits increased significantly. However, production of cut flowers vegetables declined during the review period. Over the same period, milk intake to the formal milk sector also declined. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release

4 . Manufacturing During the third quarter of 01, the sector is estimated to have exped by.8 per cent compared to a growth. per cent during the same quarter of 011. The growth in the sector was largely supported by strong expansion in the manufacture of foods mainly buoyed by a rebound in processing of sugar which exped by 8.7 per cent during the third quarter of 01 compared to a contraction of 8. per cent in a similar quarter of 011. Other food products whose processing increased significantly include beer, wheat flour maize meal which grew by 17.1, per cent, respectively. However, soft drinks dairy products declined considerably by per cent, respectively. Manufacture of motor vehicle tyres, laundry toilet soaps recorded the highest growths in the non-food category over the same period.. Electricity Water Electricity water supply recorded 1.7 per cent growth in the third quarter of 01 compared to a contraction of 11.1 per cent over a similar period in 011. The turnaround was primarily due to high level of rainfall experienced in the water catchment regions for electricity generation. Hydro electricity generation exped dramatically by 9.0 per cent during the third quarter 01 compared to the corresponding quarter of 011. However, generation of power through geo-thermal thermal declined by. 5. per cent, respectively. Consequently, contribution to the Gross Domestic Product of the resulting production mix of electricity was much higher due to reduced thermal generation which requires more expensive intermediate inputs compared to hydro power generation. Electricity production increased to 511. million KWh during quarter under review compared to 89.9 million KWh in the same period of Construction The construction industry is estimated to have exped by 0.6 per cent during the third quarter of 01 compared to a growth of.6 per cent in a similar period of 011. The considerable slowdown in the activities of this sector was mirrored in the production consumption of cement whose growths slowed to 0.6 per cent 1.5 per cent during the third quarter compared to expansions of per cent, respectively over a similar period in 011. The slowdown in the activities of the construction sector is attributable to the prevailing high interest rates. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release

5 .5 Hotels Restaurants The sector s growth slowed to 1.1 per cent during the third quarter of 01 from.1 per cent in the same quarter of 011. This slowdown was primarily on account of terrorism threats posed by the political instability in Somalia a decline in the economic fortunes of major tourist sources like the USA European countries. As a consequence, tourist arrivals through Jomo Kenyatta Moi international airports declined from 8,110 visitors in the third quarter of 011 to,15 visitors during the third quarter of Transport communication The sector is estimated to have grown by 5. per cent during the third quarter 01 compared to a growth of.9 per cent in the same period of 011. The growth was mainly supported by strong expansion in the communication sub-sector which accounted for 5.5 per cent of the total growth in the industry. The sub-sector exped by 5.9 per cent during the reference period, while l transport storage activities grew by.5 per cent in the same period. Consumption of light diesel jet fuel, which reflect the activities of commercial transport, recorded mixed performances. Consumption of light diesel increased by 5.0 per cent in the third quarter of 01 compared to the same quarter of 011 while that of jet fuel decreased by.1 per cent over the same period. Port activities exped, as reflected in the increased volume of cargo hled, despite a contraction of.1 per cent in exports tonnage during the review period. Import tonnage increased by 11. per cent thereby offsetting the impact of the decline in export tonnage to result in a growth of 6.1 per cent of volume of cargo hled at the port during the third quarter of 01 compared to the same quarter of Financial Intermediation The sector overcame the bottlenecks of high interest rates to attain one of the most impressive growths during third quarter of 01. The financial intermediation sector grew by 6.8 per cent during the reference period which was slightly lower than the 7.6 per cent the sector reached in the third quarter of 011. Figure depicts the trends of the principal interest rates from the first quarter of 007 to the third quarter of 01. All the interest rates, except the commercial banks saving rates, peaked during the third quarter of 011. While overdraft rates the weighted average commercial Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 5

6 banks loans advance rates have tremendously gone down the others have remained relatively close the levels of the third quarter of 011. Figure : Trends in principal interest rates The net foreign assets of the banking system increased from a revised figure of KSh 1.7 billion in June 01 to KSh 5.0 billion in September 01 while domestic credit increased by.5 per cent from KSh 1,550.5 billion in June 01 to KSh 1,660.1 billion in September 01. Consequently, extended broad money supply M increased from KSh 1,970.5 billion to KSh,060.6 billon over the same period. Stock market performance rallied strongly in September 01, with gains in the Nairobi Stock Exchange 0 Share Nairobi All Stock Index. The NSE 0 share index rose from,70 points in June to,97 points in September 01. Trends in the NSE 0 share index up to the third quarter of 01 are shown in Figure. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 6

7 Figure : NSE 0 share Index Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 7

8 .0 Balance of Payments Summary of external sector statistics developments during the third quarter of 01 are presented in Tables. Merchise trade balance narrowed by. per cent to a trade deficit of KSh 18,77 million in the third quarter of 01 from a deficit of KSh 5,59 million in the third quarter of 011. This was due to slackening of the value of both total exports imports compared to a similar period in 011. The Kenya Shilling exchange rate to the US Dollar has remained fairly stable since January 01 averaging at KSh 8. The sluggish performance of exports may be attributed to decline of horticulture exports. Imports bill amounted to KSh 6,889 million in the third quarter of 01 while exports earnings were valued at KSh 18,61 million. The current account deficit narrowed by 1.0 per cent to a deficit KSh 105, million in the third quarter of 01 from a deficit of KSh 1,51 million recorded in similar period in 011. However, the deficit widened compared to the second quarter of 01 when it stood at KSh 6,0 million. The trade in goods deficit was due to high imports bill compared to total exports earnings. The exped deficit in the income deficit was due to a rise in foreign earnings on investment in the Kenya, particularly earnings on long term loans. The income deficit widened to KSh, 65 million in third quarter of 01, up from a deficit of KSh,171 million in similar quarter in 011. Services account increased from a surplus of KSh,967 million in the third quarter of 011 to record a surplus of KSh 6,97 million in the third quarter of 01. Current transfers inflows increased to KSh 5,7 million in the third quarter of 01 compared to KSh 50,0 million recorded in similar period in 011. Diaspora remittances as measured by the Central Bank of Kenya recorded an increase of 6.6 per cent to KSh,519 million in the third quarter of 01. The financial account covers transactions which result in a change of ownership of financial assets liabilities between Kenya residents non-residents. The capital financial account net inflows account amounted to a surplus of KSh 87,9 million in the third quarter of 01 compared to surplus of KSh 107,096 million in corresponding period in 011. Inward capital flows mainly occurred in the form long term loans short term capital inflows. Gross official reserves increased from KSh 5,05 million in the third quarter of Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 8

9 011 to KSh 615,9 million in the third quarter of 01 indicating improved balance of payments position. Table 1 Gross domestic product by activity Constant 001 prices KSh million Year Quarter Agriculture forestry Fishing Mining quarrying Electricty water Manufacturing Construction Wholesale retail trade Hotels restaurants Transport communication Financial intermediation ,798 5,751 5,5 115,698 7,751 5,01 106,095 15,57 1,17 5,00 1,96 6,9 5,55 1,95 7,88 7,69 118,61 17,89 16,06 7,170 0, 6,181 6,7 10,67 9,769 0,05 11,75 0,81 156,85 50,06 07,5 5,6 6,5 15,91 1,1,75 18,0 1,98 161,615 51,659 99,1 5,565 6,16 17,060 0,97 9,70 1,60 18,99 171,99 55,75 18,586 5,71 6,76 1,6,5 51,86 15,9 19,796 18,181 60,79 69,697 1,61 1,8 8,09 6,95 8,8,0 5,11 8,60 11,0 6,09 1,05 1,8 8,919 6,879 8,506 5,18,0 8,19 11,158 80,77 1,9 1, 8,59 6,96 9,600 7,50,850,590 11,16 85,165 1,655 1, 0,17 6,97 9,01 9,85,575,958 11,51 69,67 1,669 1,87 0,06 6,75 9,0 7,9 5,07,99 11,55 67,5 1,110 1,7 0,7 6,76 8,99 8,661,8,69 11,780 85,98 1,515 1,1 1,07 6,805 9,76,711,80 5,51 11,785 89,77 1,956 1,99 1,66 6,967 9,869 9,71,50,50 1,051 75,89 1,60 1,9 1,76 7,118 8,671 9,95 5,510 6,9 1,17 68,909 1,15 1,568,60 7,559 9,96,0,71 8,86 1,577 85,878 1,55 1,61,060 7,55 11,181 5,7 5,75 0,969 1,65 89,7 1,87 1,699,7 7,567 10,606,06 5,116 0,098 1,758 7,097 1,1 1,66 1,96 7,77 9,15,61,78 6,98 1,699 69, ,68,00 7,881 11,8,6,685 9,015 1,0 81,9 1,6 1,75,81 7,765 1,56 7,7,06,869 1,705 8,591 1,617 1,551,51 7,958 10,806,678,80,78 1,1 70,991 1,05 1,91,61 7,99 11,59,1 7,195 5,07 1,10 66,77 1,1 1,605,69 8,07 1,59,961,987 0,550 1,7 78,761 1,7 1,65,80 7,0 1,585 9,056,091 51,0 1,98 8,0 1,66 1,6 5,55 6,957 1,7 8,9,71,7 1,50 75,1 1,5 1,558 5,670 7,688 11,95,8 7,10 8,897 1,178 68,18 1,198 1,688 5,77 8,9 1,19,1,977,86 1,79 85,65 1,01 1,7 6,59 8,69 1,97 0,956,511 5,985 15, 89,10 1,661 1,77 5,757 8,6 1,565 5,,05 7,7 16, ,1 1,9 1,66 7,107 8,057 1,00 7,7 7,5 51, 15,970 71,18 1, 1,866 6,5 8,17 1,796 6,77,09,67 15,96 85,80 1,69 1,87 7,09 7,7 1,777,1,60 55,06 16,61 90,99 1,688 1,8 7,0 8,67 1,80 8,90,551 9,809 16, ,789 1,58 1,780 8,56 8,98 1,687 9,7 7,716 5,51 16,5 7,690 1,6 1,90 7,6 8,81 1,99 8,9,169 6,57 16,98 91,79 1,609 1,907 8,995 8,78 1,858 6,78,656 57,9 17,78 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 9

10 Table 1Gross domestic product by activity Year Quarter Real estate, renting, business services Public administration Education Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices All industries excl. agriculture Taxes on products GDP at market prices 65,88 6,7 7,999 77,017-11,61 1,00,106 70,08 15,1 1,175,8 68,7 5,97 7,188 79,980-11,85 1,088,10 775, ,67 1,9,70 70,860 5,01 76,57 8,575-1,17 1,155,991 85, ,855 1,6,86 7,50 5,17 80,771 85,10-10,8 1,168,8 861,07 188,88 1,57,6 75,67 6,01 8,95 87,850-11,95 1,198,70 898,89 196,117 1,9,87 78,089 7,085 86,651 89,77-11,60 1,66,78 98,195 07,981 1,7,76 GDP seasonally adjusted ,059 11,69 18, 19,0 -,77 6, ,6,77 81,5 8,5 16,695 11,658 18,7 19,165 -,785 1,6 177,17 6,511 77,857 9,9 16,69 11,680 18,57 19,0 -,81 67,0 186,97 6,08 0,05 95,700 16,89 11,691 18,6 19,98 -,881 7, ,61 8,7 1,00 01,97 16,888 11,68 18,90 19,79 -,89 60, ,7 8,05 98,15 0,85 16,889 11,605 18, 19,915 -,961 56,75 189,01 8,65 95,111 09,78 16,7 11,55 18,70 0,088 -,956 8, ,97,91 7,868 18,176 17,95 11, 18,96 0,7 -,0 86,01 196,58,08 8,8 18,10 17,09 11,66 19,187 0,1 -,09 76,06 00,1,6 19,89,77 17,78 11,7 18,98 0,569 -,118 75,578 06,669,118 19,696,998 18,96 11,1 18,96 0,718 -,01 01,898 16,00 6,77 8,67 6,865 17,689 10,996 19,1 0,867 -,90 0,89 1,77 6,700 9,189 0,579 17,9 11,161 0,1 1,09 -,685 76,680 0,58 6,077,757 7,758 19,960 11,0 0,11 1,19 -,67 8,197 1,0,0 6,599,085 19,6 11,85 0, 1,57 -,50 06,895 5,0 50,75 57,69,580 16,668 11,5 0,195 1,5 -,669 01,609 17,019 8,69 50,58, 18,875 11,81 0,87 1,757 -,85 95,9,50 7,9,18 7,9,18 11,9 0,66 1,916 -,00 87,96 1,686 5,9,01 9,579 18,178 11,585 0,67,0 -,059 1,088 5,7 50,6 6, 50,569 16,0 11,671 0,807,1 -,09 00,75 17, 5,508 5, 7,576 19,601 11,65 1,85,19 -,811 09,86,651 50,15 59,989 6,7,59 11,75 1,68,17 -,77 99,70 1,86 9,718 9, 67,10 18,898 11,88 1,56,505 -,80,069 7, 5,17 86,07 71,0 17,06 11,99 1,6,757 -,87,1,8 55,001 79,15 7,6 0,695 11,78,66,07 -,879,1 8,000 55,05 78,59 80,6,9 1,060,680,11 -,886 11,71 0,15 50, 61,815 81,05 19,7 1,176,75,69 -,00,68 57,68 58,19 01,661 85,86 17,517 1,50,8,58 -,07 6,579 5,586 60,89 97,7 91,985 1,6 1,077,89,7 -,017 5,60 58,81 55,58 91,187 9,569,57 1,19,89,97 -,095,1 9,51 51,57 7,778 9,665 0,78 1,,5,190 -,58 61,05 69, 59,85 0,10 0,8 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 10

11 Table Gross domestic product by activity Year Quarter Agriculture forestry Fishing Mining quarrying Electricty water Manufacturing Percentage changes at constant prices 001 Constructiosale Whole- Hotels Transport Financial com- interme- retail restaurantmunicatiodiation trade Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 11

12 Table Gross domestic product by activity Percentage changes at constant prices 001 Year Quarter Real estate, renting, business services Public administration Education Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices All industries excl. agriculture Taxes on products GDP at market prices GDP, seasonally adjusted Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 1

13 Table : Balance of Merchise Trade Year KSh Million Domestic Balance of Re-Exports Total Exports Imports Period Exports Trade Volume of Trade 006 Q1 5,77.7 6,68. 59, ,89.65 (5,088.86) 17,890. Q 5, ,0.0 61, ,019.0 (70,98.5) 19,110.5 Q 6, , , ,90.9 (65,867.) 01,97.55 Q 59,09.0, ,.0 1,05.7 (79,60.17) 0, Q1 6,586.99, , ,08.60 (8,0.88) 19,656. Q 65,7.87, ,5. 15,89.17 (76,96.9) 1,61. Q 65,86.7, , ,10.96 (85,7.01),9.91 Q 65,5.6, ,8. 15,5. (85,711.01), Q1 78,1.0,87.1 8, , (9,15.9) 58,786.9 Q 77,1.19 5, , ,79.58 (8,080.98) 7,78.18 Q 8, , , , (19,.59) 06, Q 8,6.5 6, , , (10,807.) 0, Q1 8,1.0 5, , ,07.11 (100,51.1) 75,5.08 Q 76,60.11, , ,09.61 (107,116.8) 67,70.8 Q 80,87.9 7, , , (10,16.1) 81, Q 8,78.96, ,9.9 19,78. (11,88.8) 08, Q1 9,65.1 6, , ,61.5 (107,767.) 05, Q 91, , ,550. 1,6.1 (1,081.88) 9,18.7 Q 95, , ,551.7,.6 (10,671.7),76.1 Q 105,69.8 6, , ,065.8 (155,07.79) 79, Q1 111, , , ,87.9 (167,78.1) 0,966.6 Q 117,7.88 6,61.1 1, ,1.6 (18,118.55),10.7 Q 18,1.8 8, ,19.5 6,7.5 (5,58.8) 99, Q 15, , , , (7,59.75) 90, Q1 1,65.6 7, , ,1.88 (197,56.5) 59,11.1 Q 11,15.8 9,5.8 1,658.,569.6 (19,911.1) 67,7.95 Q 10, , ,61.9 6, (18,76.61) 75, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Third Quarter 01 GDP Release 1

14 Table : QUARTERLY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In millions of KSh ITEM Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep 1. CURRENT ACCOUNT (9,79.6) (,88.9) (,61.7) (60,96.8) (76,0.18) (97,90.) (1,51.19) (117,917.78) (81,118.87) (6,0.1) (105,1.98) 1.1. GOODS (107,767.) (1,081.88) (10,671.7) (155,07.75) (167,687.81) (18,118.55) (5,58.8) (7,59.75) (197,56.5) (19,911.1) (18,76.61) Exports (fob) 98, , , , ,11.1 1, , , , , ,61.9 Re-exports 6, , , ,6.05 6,.60 6,61.1 8, , , ,5.8 8,75.51 Domestic exports 9, , , , , , ,1.8 15, , , ,16.78 Imports (cif) 06,61.5 1,6.1,.6 67, , ,1.6 6,7.5 58, ,1.88, , Government,71.6 1,70.77,89.1 7,96.9,71.6,65.75,65.75,65.75,65.75,78.75,70.9 Commercial 0, , ,9. 9,668. 8, , , , , ,78.88, SERVICES, , , , , ,57.55, , , ,.6 6, Credit 6, , , , ,17. 85, , , ,078. 1, ,8.89 Debit (0,00.6) (18,1.1) (1,78.69) (,67.87) (7,901.) (5,56.9) (77,989.00) (0,961.50) (6,11.6) (17,8.88) (5,77.18) of which Travel account 6,7.80 1, ,.6 10, , , , , ,1.05 1, ,98.56 Credit 11, ,67.6 1, , , , ,81.67, , , ,9.99 Debit (5,.8) (,9.96) (,85.1) (5,177.19) (,1.6) (,007.00) (5,69.61) (,7.5) (,916.5) (,.1) (,01.) 1.. Income account 1, , ,05. (657.6) 6,75.0 (7.08) (,170.75) 1,6.99 (1,91.08) (,58.1) (,6.5) Credit,1.07 5, , , ,8.7 1,86.7,55.5 7,16.70,615.87,188.0,79.8 Debit (,870.) (,5.08) (,750.) (,.8) (,68.5) (,10.80) (6,696.8) (5,51.70) (,556.9) (5,771.15) (6,6.5) 1.. Current Transfers account, , ,6.07,97.5, ,8.7 50, , ,7.98 5, ,7.5 Diaspora remittances 11, , ,05. 9, , ,09.0,06.1,0.09 5,51.98,908.69,519.. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, ,55.78,0.5 6, , , , , , , , Capital Account (capital transfers) 1,9.00, ,179.00,757.51,89.8,009.0,760.00,7.9,98.,6.05 6, Financial Account net, ,601.78, , , ,1.5 10,5.61 6, ,77.7 5, , Investments net (,61.) 1,70.59, ,0.9 6,1.56 8, , , , ,9. 96, Change in official Reserves 7,950. (,18.81) (0,85.81),7.7 (11,0.01) (85.8) 1,51.78 (,506.19) (7,017.57) (50,05.6) (16,67.01). NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS 5,06.6, ,07.7 (,89.5) 18, , , ,97. 15,5.98 6, ,09.01 Memorum items Gross Reserves 00,85. 09, , ,11. 5, , , , , , ,9.6 Official 89,08. 10,7.89 7,66.19,75.9,0.7 71, , , ,8.10, ,977. Commercial Banks 111, ,0.0 86, , , ,0.9 16, , , , ,5. End period exchange rate against US $ Average exchange rate against US $

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