Will there ever be an M in the BRICs
|
|
- Samson Peter Mosley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Will there ever be an M in the BRICs Jorge O. Mariscal Chief Investment Officer, Emerging Markets UBS Wealth Management, AG * Presentation to the Conference: U.S.-Mexico 2012: A Year of Presidential Elections UNITED STATES-MEXICO CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CÁMARA DE COMERCIO MÉXICO-ESTADOS UNIDOS The author is a Board Member of the US-Mexico Chamber of Commerce April 2012
2 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by UBS AG, its subsidiary or affiliate ("UBS"). The information is intended as a general market commentary and provided solely for marketing and information purposes. Opinions expressed herein are those of UBS Wealth Management & Swiss Bank's Chief Investment Office. The information does not constitute UBS financial research. The statutory regulations regarding independence of financial research are not applicable to this publication. The document is not to be regarded as a sales prospectus, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to enter in any investment activity or investment advice. Specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of a recipient are not considered in this document. Tax treatment depends on the individual recipient's circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. UBS does not provide legal or tax advice. Recipients should therefore obtain independent legal and tax advice in the respective jurisdiction. At any time, UBS, its directors, officers and employees' or clients may adopt long or short positions or deal as principal or agent in relevant securities or may have a relationship with and provide financial services to issuers of relevant securities that are linked to the subject matters discussed in this publication. Please note that all investments carry a certain degree of risk. The market in certain securities may be illiquid. Investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on disposition may pay back less than invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the price, value or income of an investment. If for a financial instrument a prospectus has been published, this prospectus is available free of charge via UBS. Information contained herein may refer to past performances or are simulated past performances. Forecasts may be based on prognoses. All of these are not reliable indicators of future results. Information contained herein is current as of the date of publication and are subject to change without prior notice. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information except with respect to information concerning UBS. UBS is not liable for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this document. This document is intended solely for the information of the person to whom it has been delivered and may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where such distribution is restricted or would constitute a violation of applicable law or regulations. This document is, in particular, not intended for distribution into the US and/or to US persons. UBS specifically prohibits the amendment or the redistribution of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for any actions in this respect. Where products or services are provided from outside the UK, they will not be covered by the UK regulatory regime or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. UBS The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved 1
3 Does Mexico belong with the BRICs? It could almost qualify by the size of its economy, population and GDP per capita BRICs vs Mexico (2011E values) Source: WEO and TRG calculations 2011 GDP Population GDP/ Pop Country ($bn) (mm) (usd) Brazil 2, ,917 Russia 1, ,236 India 1,843 1,207 1,527 China 6,988 1,348 5,184 BRIC Median 2, ,050 Mexico 1, ,803 Mexico/ BRIC 54% 16% 119% 2
4 But Mexico has fallen short in economic growth, especially since 2000 Historical and projected economic growth of the BRICs and Mexico Country F 2012F Brazil 8.4% 3.0% 1.7% 3.7% 2.7% 2.9% Russia % 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% India 2.7% 5.7% 5.6% 7.4% 6.7% 7.3% China 6.1% 9.7% 10.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.5% BRIC 5.2% 6.4% 5.5% 7.9% 5.7% 5.6% Mexico 6.4% 2.3% 3.4% 2.2% 3.9% 3.8% Latin America 6.6% 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% 4.8% 4.0% Emerging Asia 5.9% 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% 6.7% 6.4% EMEA 2.0% 1.5% -0.5% 4.5% 4.4% 3.1% Emerging Markets 5.2% 5.3% 4.9% 6.3% 4.0% 3.4% *GDP weighted 2011 Source: WEO, UBS Consensus Economics (2012) and TRG calculations 3
5 Mexico has done well on the inflation front, especially in the 2000s Historical and projected inflation of the BRICs and Mexico Country F 2012F Brazil % 854.8% 6.9% 6.5% 5.4% Russia % 14.0% 8.5% 4.9% India - 9.1% 9.6% 5.5% 8.3% 6.8% China - 7.5% 7.8% 1.9% 5.4% 3.5% BRIC % 204.0% 5.2% 7.2% 5.2% Mexico % 20.4% 5.2% 3.7% 3.8% Latin America 17.2% 251.3% 456.6% 7.1% 6.4% 5.9% Emerging Asia 4.4% 11.7% 7.8% 3.1% 5.4% 3.9% EMEA 8.1% 25.5% 115.4% 11.5% 6.9% 6.2% Emerging Markets 8.1% 70.1% 133.9% 5.8% 6.2% 5.3% *GDP weighted 2011 Source: WEO and TRG calculations 4
6 Mexico s government balance sheet is solid and better than Brazil s and India s 250% Gross Government Debt (% of GDP) 200% % 100% 50% 0% 5 Japan Italy United States Singapore Canada Germany United Kingdom Hungary Israel Brazil India Poland Norway Malaysia Switzerland Philippines Denmark Venezuela Argentina Thailand Mexico Czech Republic Turkey Taiwan South Africa Sweden Colombia Hong Kong South Korea China Indonesia Australia Peru Russia Chile Source: WEO and TRG calculations
7 And external deficits are smaller than Brazil s and India s 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6 Malaysia Turkey Poland Czech Republic South Africa Peru Colombia Brazil India Mexico Argentina Chile Indonesia Israel South Korea Philippines Hungary Thailand China Hong Kong Russia Venezuela Taiwan Singapore Source: WEO and TRG calculations
8 Which has earned Mexico a stable credit rating above that of Brazil and India Credit Ratings 2012 Ratings S&P Fitch Moody's Rank Brazil BBB BBB Baa2 4 China AA- A+ Aa3 1 India BBB BBB- Baa3 5 Mexico BBB BBB Baa1 2 Russia BBB BBB Baa1 2 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of February 7,
9 How about other indicators? Mexico needs to improve quality of education and spend more on R&D Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) School enrollment, secondary (% gross) Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) Patents: Patents per capita Brazil , China , India , Mexico Russia , Source: WDI, NBS and TRG calculations. R&D data for 2006 and
10 Mexico s infrastructure base is not bad but related spending is not enough Infrastructure spending (% GDP) Vietnam 99 Internet users (per 100 people) Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) Rail/sq km Paved roads/total road Brazil % 6% China % 53% India % 49% Mexico % 35% Russia % 80% India China Thailand Turkey Poland Russia Brazil China India Russia Mexico Infrastructure (usd bn) ,505 3, Electricity 58.7% 81.2% 45.4% 32.8% 51.1% Mobile 23.8% 12.0% 44.0% 44.3% 21.0% Road 5.8% 5.2% 9.4% 14.3% 21.3% Fixed line 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% Rail 2.8% 0.3% 8.9% 8.2% 5.1% South Korea 22 Mexico 15 Brazil Source: WDI, RBC and TRG calculations. Internet user data for 2008 and mobile cellular subscriptions for
11 Mexico has 17% of China s GDP middle class but half the size of China s Country China Mexico 2011 GDP ($bn) 6,988 1,185 Population (mn) 1, GDP per capita (usd) 5,184 10,803 Middle class $19K+ per year Source: Bloomberg, Central Banks and TRG Management LP calculations 10
12 It fares poorly in crime rates and elevated corruption perceptions Homicide rate per 100, INEGI SNSP* *SNSP: Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública Homicides Rank per 100,000 (lower=worse) **Estimación 5º Informe de Gobierno Corruption Perception Index (higher=worse) Brazil China India Mexico Russia Source: WDI, Corruption Perception Index and TRG calculations. Ease of doing business rank data for 2011, Homicides for 2011 and corruption perception index for
13 Still, Mexico ranks well as a place for doing business Ease of Doing Business Rank 2011 (higher=worse) Brazil 120 China 87 India 139 Mexico 54 Russia 124 Starting a Business - Rank Dealing with Construction Permits - Rank Getting Electricity - Rank Registering Getting Credit - Property - Rank Rank Protecting Investors - Rank Paying Taxes - Rank Trading Across Borders - Rank Enforcing Contracts - Rank Resolving Insolvency - Rank Brazil China India Mexico Russia *higher rank=worse Source: World Bank Ease of doing business rank data for 2011, Homicides for 2011 and corruption perception index for
14 All good but global crisis Mexico showed greater vulnerabilities in the recent GDP Growth Country 2009 China 9.2 India 6.8 Indonesia 4.6 Poland 1.6 Colombia 1.5 Philippines 1.1 Peru 0.9 Argentina 0.8 South Korea 0.3 Brazil -0.6 Singapore -0.8 Malaysia -1.6 Chile -1.7 South Africa -1.7 Taiwan -1.9 Thailand -2.4 Hong Kong -2.7 Venezuela -3.2 Czech Republic -4.1 Turkey -4.8 Mexico -6.2 Hungary -6.7 Russia -7.8 Source: WEO 13
15 Mexico, so far from God so close to the US Mexican Remittance and US Homebuilders Mexico and US manufacturing output Mexico and US manufacturing output %3m/3m, saar Mexican Remittances rolling 12m (bn) US Homebuilders Index (rhs) Mexico US Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Source: INEGI and FRB. 20 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 0 Source: INEGI, FRB and Bloomberg. 14
16 Mexico has a low tax base and its budget depends 1/3 on oil revenues 2011 Total Revenue (% GDP) Brazil 38.5 China 21.8 India 21.3 Russia 30.9 Mexico Other 66% Mexico Oil Revenues 34% Source: Moody s and Secretaria de Hacienda y Credit Publico. 15
17 While FX reserves are at historical high they are still low by BRIC standards 150,000 Mexico FX Reserves (USD mn) 140, , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 FX Reserves (bn) FX Reserves (%GDP) Country Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-07 Dec-12 China 1,530 3,181 44% 46% Russia % 25% Brazil % 14% India % 15% Mexico % 12% Mexico (FCL) % 18% Source: IMF, WEO and TRG calculations. 16
18 FX reserves look small relative to the openness of the economy FX Reserves (% Imports) Source: IMF and TRG calculations. 17 China Russia Brazil Peru Israel Philippines Thailand Singapore India Hong Kong Colombia Malaysia South Korea Indonesia Argentina Hungary Chile Poland South Africa Mexico Turkey Czech Republic Venezuela
19 Private sector external debt has declined from 2007 but it is considerable Emerging economies private sector external debt short and long term 600% 500% 2011Q2 2007Q4 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% 18 Chile Turkey Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Colombia Mexico South Africa Korea Israel Russia India Indonesia Argentina Brazil Malaysia Peru Thailand Philippines China Source: IMF and TRG calculations.
20 Exposure to global bank deleveraging is also high 600% Claims of BIS reporting banks as percent of FX reserves 500% 400% Somewhat exaggerated by presence of Spanish banks locally 300% 200% OTHER 2011Q2 US 2011Q2 EU 2011Q2 100% 0% 19 Czech Republic Chile Poland Mexico South Africa Hungary Turkey Venezuela Hong Kong Brazil Singapore Colombia South Korea Malaysia India Peru Indonesia Argentina Taiwan Philippines Thailand Russia Israel China Source: BIS
21 Encouraging news on the recovery but Mexico s economic fate is tied to the US Industrial Production (3m avg) Mexico US 5 YoY %chg Source: Bloomberg and TRG calculations. 20
22 Mexican growth will likely underperform the BRICs couple of years in the next 2010 GDP Growth Inflation Brazil Russia India China BRICs Mexico Latin America Emerging Asia EMEA Emerging Markets Source: Consensus Economics and UBS 21
23 And the government has now less room to spend than it did in % 10% Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) % 0% -5% -10% -15% 22 Singapore Sweden Korea Peru Hong Kong Chile Argentina Taiwan Canada Indonesia China Mexico Turkey Brazil Colombia Venezuela Thailand Hungary Russia Philippines Australia Germany South Africa Czech Rep. Romania Italy Malaysia Poland India UK Japan US Source: WEO
24 The peso remains susceptible to shocks ELMI+ (Jan 2005=100) ELMI+ LatAm Mexico Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan and TRG calculations Currencies Drawdown 2011 Peak to trough Peak to today Mexico -16% -9% India -13% -8% Brazil -11% -5% Russia -6% -4% China -1% 1% *5/2/11-11/25/11 *5/2/11-1/19/12 23
25 July 2012 elections: an adolescent democracy and political risk still matters Presidential race: vote intentions February % 22.2% 18.5% Source: Ipsos Bimsa 24
26 There is an interesting recent trend in the largest Latin American economies? 25
27 What about the long term? If Mexico avoids recurrent crises and continues along its current path it will be the world s 6th largest economy by 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 26
28 But Mexico would be still smaller than the BRICs Nominal GDP (USD billion) 2011 Base Growth Rate for Mexico 2050 Mexico, $6,947 India, $1,843 Mexico, $1,185 India, $24,984 Russia, $1,885 Russia, $8,011 Brazil, $2,518 China, $6,988 Brazil, $9,713 China, $52,619 Source: Goldman Sachs 27
29 So how can Mexico get the incremental growth needed? Answer: reduce vulnerabilities and bring about structural reforms! 0.5% more GDP growth per annum? 28
30 A mere 0.5% growth in GDP per year over 40 years means: Projections for Mexico in Base High Difference GDP Growth 4.0% 3.3% 3.8% 0.5% FX contribution -8.3% 1.6% 1.8% 0.2% Average Annual GDP Growth 4.9% 5.6% 0.7% GDP (USD bn 2010) 1,185 6,947 9,186 2,239 Per Capita GDP 10,803 48,268 81,003 32, % p.a. over 40 years = 2.2X a full Mexican economy of today = 3X the current per capita income Source: Goldman Sachs and TRG calculations 29
31 It also means full membership in the BRIC club $60,000 $50,000 GDP projections in 2050 (USD bn in 2010) $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 GDP per capita projections in 2050 (USD) $40,000 $30,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $20,000 $10,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $0 China US India Brazil Mexico "high" Russia Japan UK France Germany Canada Italy $10,000 $0 US Mexico "high" Canada UK France Germany Japan Russia Italy Brazil China India Source: Goldman Sachs and TRG calculations 30
32 Challenges and prognosis Mexico needs to lower vulnerabilities and increase growth External Challenges A slow protracted recovery in the US Europe s likely recession/risk aversion Internal Challenges Political resistance to structural reform Oligopolistic economies Government dependence on oil revenues Fight on crime Inequality and large poverty Prognosis The bad news is that the challenges are large The good news is Markets expect a lot from the BRICs and too little from Mexico Do not count Mexico out 31
33 One last problem: where do we put the M? CRIMB BRICM? BRIMC? CRIBM? MICRB???? RICMB? Ok, we will leave it to the marketing geniuses of Goldman Sachs to come up with a new catchy name. 32
Financial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationCharting Brunei s Economy
Charting Brunei s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationLatin America Equities
Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12
More informationSan Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity
M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index
More informationThe Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index Rules. PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index Fine Specifications
PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index Fine Specifications July 2017 1 Index Overview The PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index history starts on December 31, 2003. The index has a level of
More informationCharting Mexico s Economy
Charting Mexico s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationUS Economic Indicators: Import Prices, PPI, & CPI
US Economic Indicators: Import Prices, PPI, & CPI December 1, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-97-73 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson --1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box Table Of
More informationGlobal Economic Indictors: CRB Raw Industrials & Global Economy
Global Economic Indictors: & Global Economy December 14, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator February 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Charles Waters cwaters@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator February
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging
More informationCOUNTRY COST INDEX JUNE 2013
COUNTRY COST INDEX JUNE 2013 June 2013 Kissell Research Group, LLC 1010 Northern Blvd., Suite 208 Great Neck, NY 11021 www.kissellresearch.com Kissell Research Group Country Cost Index - June 2013 2 Executive
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 7, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 3 3 Figure 1. S&P
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator July 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Allison Hay ahay@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator July 2018 A
More informationCharting Myanmar s Economy
Charting Myanmar s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationMarket Briefing: S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy
Market Briefing: S&P Forward Earnings & the Economy January, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationGLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with [insert name of Advisor]. DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company. Market
More informationMarket Correlations: CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index
Market Correlations: Spot Price Index December 15, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationNORTH AMERICAN UPDATE
NORTH AMERICAN UPDATE December 6 th, 2018 INNOVATION INSIGHT GROWTH SINCE 1968 TOUGH YEAR FOR RETURNS AROUND THE WORLD Index Year-to-date Performance MSCI World -1.2% MSCI USA 3.9% MSCI Canada -3.9% MSCI
More informationMarket Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World
Market Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World January 29, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-530 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 0--1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites
More informationDIVERSIFICATION. Diversification
Diversification Helps you capture what global markets offer Reduces risks that have no expected return May prevent you from missing opportunity Smooths out some of the bumps Helps take the guesswork out
More informationEQUITY REPORTING & WITHHOLDING. Updated May 2016
EQUITY REPORTING & WITHHOLDING Updated May 2016 When you exercise stock options or have RSUs lapse, there may be tax implications in any country in which you worked for P&G during the period from the
More informationGlobal Select International Select International Select Hedged Emerging Market Select
International Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Managed Strategies ETFs provide investors a liquid, transparent, and low-cost avenue to equities around the world. Our research has shown that individual country
More informationMarket Correlations: S&P 500
Market Correlations: S&P 500 September 25, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationMarket Correlations: Expected Inflation in TIPS
Market Correlations: in TIPS April, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni 56-97-768 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 7-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationStock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Stock Market Briefing: S&P Revenues & the Economy December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at
More informationGlobal Emerging Markets. Outlook March 2006
Global Emerging Markets Outlook Market Performance from 31.12.1998 to 31.01.2006 360 310 260 210 160 110 60 98 Jun-99 99 Jun-00 00 Jun-01 01 Jun-02 02 Jun-03 03 Jun-04 04 Jun-05 05 MSCI World MSCI EM S&P500
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationMarket Correlation: Emerging Markets MSCI
Market Correlation: MSCI March 2, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside
More informationMarket Correlations: Brent Crude Oil
Market Correlations: Brent Crude Oil March 6, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog.
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure
More informationReporting practices for domestic and total debt securities
Last updated: 27 November 2017 Reporting practices for domestic and total debt securities While the BIS debt securities statistics are in principle harmonised with the recommendations in the Handbook on
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 12, 219 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box 25 Figure
More informationGlobal Business Barometer April 2008
Global Business Barometer April 2008 The Global Business Barometer is a quarterly business-confidence index, conducted for The Economist by the Economist Intelligence Unit What are your expectations of
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationChile: Business Environment and Investment Opportunities
Chile: Business Environment and Investment Opportunities Guest Speaker 14:00 15:00 GUEST SPEAKER Martin Pathan Investment Officer Foreign Investment Committee Chile: business environment and investment
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds.
More informationChina: Beyond the headlines. Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management
China: Beyond the headlines Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management Are you a China Bull or a Bear? Source: Various news publications 2 Bear myth #1: Hard landing? GDP: Growth is slowing, but it s
More information% 38, % 40, % 2,611 2,
3 DECEMBER 6 OPEN ENDED Number of Net Value of Number of Total Value Total Value Net New Date Authorised/Registered Schemes Registered of Sales of Repurchases Investment Schemes ( mn) Holders ( mn) ( mn)
More informationFrontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come. Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner
Frontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner The Frontier Markets Have the good old Emerging Markets lost their appeal? We remain convinced that Emerging
More informationSTOXX EMERGING MARKETS INDICES. UNDERSTANDA RULES-BA EMERGING MARK TRANSPARENT SIMPLE
STOXX Limited STOXX EMERGING MARKETS INDICES. EMERGING MARK RULES-BA TRANSPARENT UNDERSTANDA SIMPLE MARKET CLASSIF INTRODUCTION. Many investors are seeking to embrace emerging market investments, because
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationThe Chilean economy: Institutional buildup and perspectives
The Chilean economy: Institutional buildup and perspectives Vittorio Corbo Governor 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Chile s economic reforms and institutional buildup 3. Performance of the Chilean economy
More informationEmerging market equities
November 22, 2010 Emerging market equities Jean-Pierre Talon, FSA, FICA Introduction Focus of this presentation is to set out the rationale for a strategic bias toward emerging market equities Consider
More informationGlobal Consumer Confidence
Global Consumer Confidence The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen 4TH QUARTER 2017 RESULTS CONTENTS Global Highlights Asia-Pacific Africa and
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationTrends and opportunities across regions: Europe
Trends and opportunities across regions: Europe Monday, 6 June 2011 Head of Institutional Fixed Income Europe Three themes shaping global opportunities I. Long term: Spheres of influence are shifting among
More informationGlobal Economic Briefing: Global Inflation
Global Economic Briefing: Global Inflation November, 7 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-7 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson -- djohnson@ Mali Quintana -- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationMarket Briefing: Global Markets
Market Briefing: Global Markets July 6, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are
More informationPresentation The role of fixed income today. Quentin Fitzsimmons. Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income T. Rowe Price
Presentation The role of fixed income today Quentin Fitzsimmons Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income T. Rowe Price THE ROLE OF FIXED INCOME TODAY Quentin Fitzsimmons Global Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
More informationA short history of debt
A short history of debt In the words of the late Charles Kindleberger, debt/financial crises are a hardy perennial we have been here many times before. Over the past decade and a half the ratio of global
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 19, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 38 36
More informationFTSE Global All Cap Index
FTSE Russell Factsheet FTSE Global All Cap Index bmktitle1 The FTSE Global All Cap Index is a market-capitalisation weighted index representing the performance of the large, mid and small cap stocks globally.
More informationMarket Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar
Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 17, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 13 13 Figure
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More informationFTSE Global All Cap Index
FTSE Russell Factsheet FTSE Global All Cap Index bmktitle1 The FTSE Global All Cap Index is a market-capitalisation weighted index representing the performance of the large, mid and small cap stocks globally.
More informationFOREIGN ACTIVITY REPORT
FOREIGN ACTIVITY REPORT SECOND QUARTER 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents... i All Securities Transactions... 2 Highlights... 2 U.S. Transactions in Foreign Securities... 2 Foreign Transactions in
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationPerformance Derby: MSCI Regions & Countries STRG, STEG, & LTEG
Performance Derby: MSCI Regions & Countries STRG, STEG, & LTEG February 7, 2018 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@yardeni.com Please visit our sites at blog.yardeni.com
More informationEmerging Market Debt Outlook
Emerging Market Debt Outlook Live Webcast hosted by: Luz Padilla Portfolio Manager Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DBLEX/DLENX) June 15, 2010 Fund Offerings Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund Retail
More information2017 Global Trends in Investor Relations
0 2017 Global Trends in Investor Relations Primacy of Geopolitical Risk Geopolitical risk is still the number one concern for companies globally. Concern is increasing regarding the impact of emerging
More informationAddress City State Zip Phone Fax. First Name Last Name Suffix. Address City State Zip Phone Fax
Assumptions Plan Date Schedule Plan Review 6 months 1 year Other Client Marital Status Single Married Domestic Partner Long-term inflation rate Social Security increase rate Personal Data Client A Information
More informationKPMG s Individual Income Tax and Social Security Rate Survey 2009 TAX
KPMG s Individual Income Tax and Social Security Rate Survey 2009 TAX B KPMG s Individual Income Tax and Social Security Rate Survey 2009 KPMG s Individual Income Tax and Social Security Rate Survey 2009
More informationGuide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates. January 2018
Guide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Aims of the Guide 1 1.2. Withholding Tax Definition 1 1.3. Double Taxation Treaties 1 1.4. Information Sources 1 1.5. Guide Upkeep
More informationMarket Briefing: News Events & Key Markets
Market Briefing: News Events & Key Markets August 5, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at
More informationJuly 2012 Chartbook The Halftime Report
Average Daily $VA LUE Traded ($Billions ) $Billions (212 ( US China Japan CHI-X London Hong Kong Germany France Canada Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan Spain India Italy $billions Switzerland Sweden Amsterdam
More informationFTSE All-World High Dividend Yield
FTSE Russell Factsheet High Dividend Index Data as at: 31 August 2018 bmktitle1 The High Dividend Index comprises stocks that are characterized by higherthan-average dividend yields, and is based on the
More informationCorrigendum. OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: ISBN (print) ISBN (PDF) OECD 2012
OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/9789264169401-en ISBN 978-92-64-16939-5 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-16940-1 (PDF) OECD 2012 Corrigendum Page 21: Figure 1.1. Average annual real net investment
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for July 2011 All data are as of Friday, July 29, 2011. The regional indices are based
More informationDate of Latest Changes
Emerging Capital Markets Update for May 2011 All data are as of Tuesday, May 31, 2011. The regional indices are based on an average of major EM countries in each region where the data are available. Summary
More informationFinancial Crisis What do we know?
Financial Crisis What do we know? Pedro Videla IESE Global Propagation of the Financial Crisis United Kingdom Ireland Iceland United States Spain January 2008 March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 January
More informationVantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
More informationInvestment Theme 3Q18. Ageing Population. Source: AFP Photo
Investment Theme 3Q18 Ageing Population Source: AFP Photo 91 Investment Theme III: Ageing Population Jason Low, CFA Strategist The global population is growing older and people are living longer. Demographics
More informationMarket Briefing: MSCI Stock Market Indexes
Market Briefing: MSCI Stock Market Indexes September 7, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationThis statistical appendix presents data
This statistical appendix presents data on financial developments in key financial centers and emerging markets. It is designed to complement the analysis in the text by providing additional data that
More informationCapital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF
Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation
More informationCapital Account Management in Brazil
RETHINKING MACRO POLICY II: FIRST STEPS AND EARLY LESSONS APRIL 16 17, 2013 Capital Account Management in Brazil Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil Paper presented
More informationWhat is driving US Treasury yields higher?
What is driving Treasury yields higher? " our programme for reducing our [Fed's] balance sheet, which began in October, is proceeding smoothly. Barring a very significant and unexpected weakening in the
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationInvesco Indexing Investable Universe Methodology October 2017
Invesco Indexing Investable Universe Methodology October 2017 1 Invesco Indexing Investable Universe Methodology Table of Contents Introduction 3 General Approach 3 Country Selection 4 Region Classification
More informationDeveloping Housing Finance Systems
Developing Housing Finance Systems Veronica Cacdac Warnock IIMB-IMF Conference on Housing Markets, Financial Stability and Growth December 11, 2014 Based on Warnock V and Warnock F (2012). Developing Housing
More informationMarket Briefing: Gold
Market Briefing: Gold January 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table
More informationFTSE Global Small Cap Index
FTSE Russell Factsheet FTSE Global Small Cap Index bmktitle1 The FTSE Global Small Cap Index is derived from FTSE's flagship Global Equity Series universe, which comprises around 7,000 securities worldwide,
More informationCapital Account Controls and Liberalization: Lessons for India and China
UBS Investment Research Capital Account Controls and Liberalization: Lessons for India and China Jonathan Anderson November 2003 ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 50 UBS does
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationMarket Briefing: MSCI Stock Market Indexes
Market Briefing: MSCI Stock Market Indexes February 1, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationQuarterly Market Review. First Quarter 2015
Q1 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with
More informationGMO. CFA Society, Victoria. September 30, Arjun Divecha. North America Europe Asia-Pacific
North America Europe Asia-Pacific CFA Society, Victoria September 30, 2010 Arjun Divecha Proprietary information not for distribution beyond intended recipient. Overview San Francisco Boston London Zurich
More informationMarket Briefing: Currencies
Market Briefing: Currencies December 6, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents
More informationFTSE Global Equity Index Series
Methodology overview FTSE Global Equity Index Series Built for the demands of global investors Indexes for a global market The FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS) includes objective, rules-based
More informationFreedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018
ASSET MANAGEMENT SERVICES Freedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018 SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS U.S. economic growth and earnings lead the world The value of the dollar rises, affecting currency exchange
More informationGlobal Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile. 4-6 October 2017
Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile 4-6 October 2017 Graham Robinson Global Construction Perspectives Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of global studies of the construction
More information