IS Morning Report Monday, March 05, 2018

Transcription

1 Global & Regional Benchmarks UAE Trading Summary Indices Close 1Day 1Mnth 3Mnth YTD 1Y (AEDm) BUY SELL NET ADX 4, % 0.5% 8.0% 4.7% 0.9% ADX DFM 3, % -4.9% -5.4% -4.7% -9.3% Local 41% 53% -13% TASI 7, % -2.9% 4.3% 2.0% 5.8% Foreign 59% 47% 13% KWSEI 6, % 0.8% 8.9% 5.6% -0.5% Institutional 58% 56% 2% EGX 15, % 3.7% 7.3% 3.3% 24.2% Retail 42% 44% -2% Dow Jones 24, % 0.8% 1.5% -0.7% 16.8% DFM S&P 500 2, % 1.6% 2.3% 0.7% 12.9% Local 55% 56% -1% Nasdaq 7, % 4.2% 7.3% 5.1% 23.6% Foreign 45% 44% 1% FTSE 100 7, % -3.6% -3.5% -8.0% -4.1% Institutional 44% 32% 12% DAX 11, % -6.1% -8.7% -7.8% -0.9% Retail 56% 68% -12% CAC40 5, % -2.8% -4.4% -3.3% 2.8% Total Nikkei225 21, % -7.1% -6.9% -7.5% 8.2% Local 50% 55% -5% HIS 30, % -6.2% 4.8% 1.1% 28.4% Foreign 50% 45% 5% Upcoming Corporate Actions & Events Date Company Event 10-March RAK Properties AGM 11-March UNB AGM 14-March RAK Bank AGM 20-March GFH AGM 21-March Ajman Bank AGM 21-March DU AGM Key Stories U.A.E. Feb. Whole Economy PMI 55.1 vs 56.8 in Jan DP World to Begin Work on Phase 1 of Berbera Free Zone Project. No talks yet about extending OPEC output cuts into 2019: UAE minister

2 Dubai orders freeze on government fees for three years. Dubai Airport Free Zone records 25% rise in registered companies. UAE s Emirates Global Aluminium well prepared following Trump threat. Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company established as public joint stock firm ORIENT AGM Approved for 20% cash DIV. Record Slide in Saudi Loans to Companies Poses Risk to Recovery. Credit issued by Saudi lenders falls for 11th month in January Fitch Downgrades Bahrain to 'BB-'; Outlook Stable. Banque Saudi Fransi fourth-quarter profit climbed 13% to 423 million riyals. Petrofac Awards Sub-Contract to Galfar (GECS OM) for About $41m. Saudi, Egypt Set up $10 Billion Fund to Develop Mega City JPMorgan, HSBC Among Banks Said to Help Manage Saudi Dollar Bond. Record Slide in Saudi Loans to Companies Poses Risk to Recovery. Egypt Feb. Whole Economy PMI 49.7 vs 49.9 in Jan. Egypt net foreign reserves rise to $42.524b after Eurobond sale. Telecom Egypt Full Year Revenue Beats Highest Estimate. Ibnsina Says Confident of Winning Antitrust Case as Shares Slump. Global Markets Wrap: Asian shares stumbled to near three-week lows on Monday amid fears of a global trade war, while the euro was unsteady in currency markets due to worries that an anti-establishment coalition government could emerge from elections in Italy. Italian voters delivered a hung parliament on Sunday, flocking to anti-establishment and far-right parties in record numbers and casting the euro zone's third-largest economy into a political gridlock that could take months to clear. The euro still found support after Germany's Social Democrat party decisively backed the renewal of an alliance with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, allowing her to form a new government more than five months since the country's inconclusive election. The single currency also got a lift from safe-haven flows, as did the yen, with risk sentiment souring on fears of a trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. Canada and Mexico have threatened retaliation, and the European Union said it would apply 25 percent tariffs on about $3.5 billion of imports from the United States if Trump carried out his threat. China said on Sunday it did not want a trade war with the United States but will defend its interests, warning that policies based on "mistaken assumptions" will damage bilateral relations. Oil prices rose early on Monday ahead of a meeting between OPEC and U.S. shale firms in Houston, raising expectations that oil producers would discuss further how to clear a global oil glut. International benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was up 44 cents, or 0.68 percent, at $64.81 a barrel by 0135 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate

3 (WTI) crude CLc1 rose 41 cents, or 0.67 percent, to $61.66 per barrel. Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other global oil players are set to gather in Houston as CERAWeek, the largest energy industry conference, begins on Monday. Rising U.S. shale oil production has been a drag on the OPEC's commitment to erode a prolonged global oil glut and prop up prices. U.S. crude oil production has already risen past that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, to million barrels per day (bpd). The number of oil rigs drilling for new production in the United States RIG/U rose to 800 for the first time since April 2015 in early March, pointing to more increases in output to come. UAE: U.A.E. Feb. Whole Economy PMI 55.1 vs 56.8 in Jan, Emirates NBD and Markit Economics release purchasing managers index for U.A.E. s whole economy in February. Index falls to 55.1 from 56.8 in Jan.; Year ago 56, Lowest reading since Sept. 2017, New Orders rise to 61.5 vs 61 in Jan. Employment falls vs prior month, Lowest reading since June DP World to Begin Work on Phase 1 of Berbera Free Zone Project The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has not discussed at this stage extending production cuts into next year, the group s president said on Sunday, adding that reducing global crude supply inventories remained its focus. Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, the United Arab Emirates oil minister and OPEC s president, said in a brief

4 interview ahead of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. We feel there is still some market overhang. The group and allies agreed last year to cut combined output by about 1.8 million barrels per day to drain a global oil glut. The agreement began in January 2017 and runs through the end of this year. Dubai orders freeze on government fees for three years. Dubai has committed not to raise government fees for the next three years to promote the emirate's competitiveness after the United Arab Emirates' introduction of a 5 percent value-added tax (VAT) this year. Dubai has a low-tax environment and raises the bulk of its revenue through fees such as business licensing, real estate approvals, parking and transport. It expects to raise 71 percent of state revenue from such fees in Dubai Airport Free Zone records 25% rise in registered companies. UAE s Emirates Global Aluminium well prepared following Trump threat, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said on Sunday it was well prepared for any market conditions should US President Donald Trump go ahead with sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Alongside Europe, Asia and the United Arab Emirates, the US is an important market for EGA, the company s spokesman told Reuters. We are well prepared for whatever market conditions may arise, he said. Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company established as public joint stock firm, UAE President Sheikh Khalifa has issued, in his capacity as Ruler of Abu Dhabi, a law to establish the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, ADDHC, as a public joint stock company. According to the law, the new company will be an independent corporate body that enjoys full legal status to practice its activities and achieve its objectives, as well as its financial and administrative autonomy, according to the state news agency WAM. The ADDHC is mandated to monitor and guide development service companies in Abu Dhabi, to enable them to achieve excellence in terms of productivity, efficiency and quality, which will help to promote their businesses and realize the future goals, as outlined in the Abu Dhabi Vision. ORIENT AGM Approved for 20% cash DIV. GCC/ MENA: Saudi bank lending to private companies shrank for an 11th month in January, the longest stretch in at least two decades, underscoring the challenge facing officials trying to boost growth in the largest Arab economy. Data released last week by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority showed total credit issued to private companies fell 1 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 41 percent jump in lending to the public sector -- the most in 11 months. That s a problem for authorities looking to bolster non-oil private industries to overhaul an economy long reliant on oil revenue and state spending. Fitch Downgrades Bahrain to 'BB-'; Outlook Stable, Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-01 March 2018: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Bahrain's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB-' from 'BB+'. The Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary. Banque Saudi Fransi fourth-quarter profit climbed 13% to 423 million riyals, missing the average analysts estimates. The board proposed 0.35 riyal per share dividend. Petrofac Awards Sub-Contract to Galfar (GECS OM) for About $41m. Saudi, Egypt Set up $10 Billion Fund to Develop Mega City. Riyadh s part of the joint investment fund will be cash to help develop the Egyptian side of Neom city, Reuters reports, citing an unidentified Saudi official. Egypt commits more than 1,000 square kilometers in south Sinai for the project JPMorgan, HSBC Among Banks Said to Help Manage Saudi Dollar Bond, Saudi Arabia selected banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc to help arrange the sale of a dollar-denominated bond, people familiar

5 with the matter said, as the kingdom seeks to plug its budget deficit. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. will also manage the offering that may happen as soon as this month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn t public. The Saudi Finance Ministry declined to comment. HSBC, Goldman and JPMorgan declined to comment, while Citigroup didn t immediately comment. Egypt Feb. Whole Economy PMI 49.7 vs 49.9 in Jan, Emirates NBD and Markit Economics release purchasing managers index for Egypt s whole economy in February. Index falls to 49.7 from 49.9 in Jan.; Year ago 46.7, Third consecutive month of contraction, New Orders rise to 50.3 vs 49.9 in Jan. Employment rises vs prior month, Highest reading since June 2015 Egypt net foreign reserves rise to $42.524b after Eurobond sale, Egypt s foreign reserves rose to $ billion (Dh156 billion) at the end of February from $ billion at the end of January, the central bank said on Sunday, helped by a recent Eurobond sale. Cairo s foreign reserves have been climbing since the country secured a $12 billion three-year International Monetary Fund loan programme in 2016 as part of efforts to woo foreign investors and revive its ailing economy. Reserves had dropped to about $19 billion before Egypt signed the three-year IMF deal, with Egypt floating the currency and lifting capital controls to lure back investors. Telecom Egypt Full Year Revenue Beats Highest Estimate, Telecom Egypt reported revenue for the full year that beat the highest analyst estimate. FY revenue billion pounds, estimate billion (range billion to billion), FY net income 3.15 billion pounds, High Single to Low Double Digit 2018 Rev Growth, Sees Mid to High 20s Ebitda Margin in 2018, Sees 2018 Capex to Sales Ratio at 30% to 35%. Ibnsina Says Confident of Winning Antitrust Case as Shares Slump, Ibnsina Pharma, Egypt s second-biggest pharmaceuticals distributor, denied on Sunday that its sales practices broke competition rules and said it was confident of overturning a fine imposed by a Cairo court. "The opinion of the lawyers we consulted is that our position is very strong and this is why we haven t sought a reconciliation," Co-Chief Executive Officer Omar Abdel Gawad said in a phone interview. Ibnsina shares closed 10.7 percent down at 9.46 pounds per share, their lowest level since January, after the court fined it and three other pharmaceutical companies 5.6 billion Egyptian pounds ($317.5 million) for manipulating the market. (Source: ADX, DFM, Bloomberg, Reuters, Gulf News, The National, Arabian Business) Daily Foreign Ownership Increase Company Name Foreign Ownershp (%) (%) Shares Mcap (AED) Marka 14.92% ,300, ,522 Al Khazna Ins. 4.87% , ,188 DXBE 31.45% ,599,939 3,152,422 GFH 72.52% ,430,073 2,028,129 Sharjah Cement 1.35% , ,176 Amlak Finance 20.90% , ,456 Eshraq 36.10% , ,145 RAK Properties 29.87% , ,982

6 Methaq Takaful Ins % ,000 12,299 Al Madina 24.17% ,960 15,219 Daily Foreign Ownership Decrease Company Name Foreign Ownershp (%) (%) Shares Mcap (AED) RAK Cement 29.46% (1,379,180) (1,206,234) Shuaa Capital 18.03% (532,500) (569,713) Dar Al Takaful 21.55% (75,000) (53,769) RAK Ceramics 54.53% (343,359) (1,026,533) Union Properties 18.75% (1,286,862) (1,146,469) Dubai Isl. Ins 12.21% (67,725) (52,143) DSI 16.92% (321,296) (578,270) Islamic Arab Ins % (238,060) (115,663) Gulf Cement 17.52% (164,119) (172,412) Deyaar Dev 11.07% (1,733,400) (915,235) (Source: ADX, DFM, Bloomberg, Reuters) Institutional Sales and Trading Team Harshjit Oza Direct Line: Disclaimer This report was prepared by Integrated Securities ( IS ) in and for the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). IS is a securities brokerage company regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority (and neither an investment nor a financial advisory firm). The information contained in this report is given in summary and does not purport to be complete. All securities and financial product or instrument transactions involve risks, which include (among others) the risk of adverse or unanticipated market, financial or political developments and, in international transactions, currency risk. Content of this report is provided solely for informational purposes and private circulation and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors in relation to holding, purchasing or selling securities or any other financial product or instrument, or adopting any hedging or investment strategy and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation, tax implications or any other needs. Before acting on any information you should consider and confirm the appropriateness of the information having regard to these matters, any relevant offer document and in particular, you should seek professional financial advice. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. IS has not reviewed any such site and takes no responsibility for the content of the same. Such address or hyperlink is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of any such website does not in any way form part of this document.

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