Инвестиции и девелопмент недвижимости в России и СНГ Real Estate Investment & Development in Russia & CIS

Transcription

1 RUSSIA USS GRI 2009 РОССИЯ GRI Инвестиции и девелопмент недвижимости в России и СНГ Real Estate Investment & Development in Russia & CIS

2 GRI Summit Crisis, recession recovery? Alexander Morozov September 30, 2009

3 The Past: Boom and Bust

4 Economic boom has started since %, y-o-y y GDP grow th (lhs) Consumer inflation (rhs) %, y-o-y y Source: Rosstat 4

5 but led to economic overheating in H 2008 Positive output gap and stubbornly high inflation Construction boom Resource constraints become binding (labour, capital, infrastructure) t Wage growth exceeding productivity growth Strong imports growth, current account deterioration 5

6 Construction boom Construction boom has been the recent reality GDP grow th rate,% Brick production grow th rate, % Cement price grow th rate, Dec/Dec Cement production grow th rate,% PPI, Dec/Dec Brick price grow th rate, Dec/Dec Source: Rosstat 6

7 Productivity growth lagged behind 15 (%) Dec Real wage grow th (lhs) Productiv ity grow th (lhs) Source: Rosstat 7

8 Russia Growth Triplet Oil prices capital flows and international reserves (CBR s net foreign assets) 8

9 nicely explain Russia growth performance rices) RUB bn (constant p Q1999 1Q2000 1Q2001 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 GDP (actual, SA) GDP (fitted, SA) Source: Rosstat, HSBC estimates 9

10 Winds of fortune stopped blowing with a fall of oil prices, massive capital outflows, and decline in CBR s reserves USDb bn Q2001 2Q2002 3Q2003 4Q2004 1Q2006 2Q2007 3Q2008 USD/b bbl Q1999 1Q2001 1Q2003 1Q2005 1Q2007 1Q2009 Net capital inflows Brent price (lhs) International reserves (rhs) n USDbn Source: Rosstat, CBR 10

11 prompting a deep economic crisis in 3Q 08-2Q 09 that affected all sectors of the economy %, y-o-y Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Source: Rosstat Industrial production grow th Cargo transportation Wholesale trade 11

12 Labor costs rose sharply, so did unemployment Dec ,5 9 8,5 8 7, ,5 6 Unit Labor Costs Growth Rate (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs) Source: Rosstat, HSBC 12

13 The Present: Shaky Recovery

14 Industry and the economy started recovering slowly Mar-0 08 May-0 08 Jul-0 08 Sep-0 08 Nov-0 08 Jan-0 09 Mar-0 09 May-0 09 GDP grow th, % m-o-m SA Manufacturing PMI, SA (RHS) Jul-0 09 Source: MOED, Markit 14

15 Exports and restocking in industry lead the recovery % m-o-m, SA 1 0,5 0-0, GDP Industrial production Construction Inv estment Retail trade Real w ages Jul-09 Aug-09 Source: MOED 15

16 while weak domestic demand drags down growth % m -o-m, SA (minus GDP growt th) Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 Inv estment (lhs) Retail trade (lhs) Real w ages (lhs) GDP % m-o-m, SA Source: MOED 16

17 Inflation heads to single-digits (%, yoy) (%, yoy) May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 М2Х (13m lag, lhs) CPI (rhs) Source: Rosstat, CBR 17

18 setting the base for interest rates decrease (%) Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 MosPrime O/N 3-month MosPrime 1-month MosPrime Source: Reuters 18

19 Exchange rate has stabilized Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Source: Reuters RUB basket 19

20 Some preliminary conclusions Russia s s economy is highly dependent on global economy, financial and commodity markets Higher commodity prices, growth acceleration in China and other countries should prompt export-led GDP recovery in Russia in 2H 2009 of 2-4pp The economy has bottomed out in June, industrial output in May Inflation to decline to single-digits by the year-end 20

21 The Future: Growth Below The Trend

22 Economic overheating is a global problem (%) World GDP grow th rate Period av erage grow th rate Source: IMF, HSBC 22

23 suggesting slow recovery globally and in Russia compared to a sustainable growth path (tim es, Year 0 =100% ) 175% % % % -10 Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 Breakneck growth index (lhs) Sustainable growth index (lhs) Breakneck growth rate, yoy (rhs) Sustainable grow th rate, y oy (rhs) (% ) Source: HSBC 23

24 Tightening fiscal policy to restrain Russia growth RUB bn Revenues Expenditures Deficit % of GDP Revenues Expenditures Deficit Source: MOF 24

25 Banks curb lending , , ,35 1,25 RUB bn ,15 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Loans, lhs Deposits, lhs Loan-to-deposit ratio, rhs Source: CBR 25

26 as bad loans keep growing 1,55 5% 1,50 1,45 1, ,35 1,30 1,25 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 loan-to-deposit ratio, lhs Ov erdue Loans (% of loans, rhs) 4% 3% 2% 1% Source: CBR 26

27 Mortgage recovery to be delayed RUB bln (%) Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 4Q2006 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 Amount of new mortgages (LHS) Y-o-y grow th of outstanding mortgages (RHS) Source: CBR 27

28 Oil prices point to further decline in real estate prices USD square meter USD per Fe eb-03 g-03 Au Ja an-04 ul-04 Ja an-05 ul-05 Ja an-06 ul-06 Urals oil price (LHS) J J J Ja an-07 J ul-07 Ja an-08 J ul-08 Ja an-09 ul-09 J Residential prices in Moscow (RHS) Source: Reuters, ARN.RU 28

29 Medium-term growth outlook - part 1 Past economic overheating implies that future economic growth is likely to be below the trend Russia s banking sector will be dealing with bad assets problem for long time Fiscal stimuli used in many countries provide short-term push to growth likely prompting W-shaped global and Russia s recovery during next few quarters 29

30 Medium-term growth outlook part 2 Abundant global liquidity and low rates might spur another commodity price boom, rally in other market segments Russia s economy would benefit from high oil prices and the increased capital inflows accelerating economic growth to 4-6% p.a. 30

31 Long-term view

32 Russia long-term strategic positives Russia s s economy will remain one of the largest in the world by the market size, population, natural resources ( Too big to ignore ) The economy is likely to grow faster on average than OECD countries in the long-term (Catching up effect) Low level and quality of financial intermediation are positive for fast banking sector development, including mortgages 32

33 High potential for mortgage growth Despite fast consumer lending growth in Russia households are still net lenders Household mortgage debt s very low at c2% of GDP Economic and banking sector stabilization should resume growth of household lending, including mortgages, by well capitalized banks % of GDP USDbn 0 Source: CBR, Rosstat Other debt, lhs Other debt, rhs Mortgage loans, lhs Mortgage loans, rhs 0 33

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35 RUSSIA USS GRI 2009 РОССИЯ GRI Инвестиции и девелопмент недвижимости в России и СНГ Real Estate Investment & Development in Russia & CIS