TRIM Daily. TRIM Highlights

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1 TRIM Daily MARCH 12, 2014 TRIM Highlights Market has strengthened further buoyed by regional optimism and Jokowi euphoria, given rising expectation that Jokowi s candidacy could be announced by PDIP ahead of 9 April election, which would be positive for market overall but particularly construction and industrial property. Within construction sector our top picks remain WIKA Buy, TP 2850) and PTPP Buy, TP 1800). We have HOLDs on all industrial properties, of which we prefer KIJA TP 250) as big laggard up only 16.6% versus BEST 48% and SSIA 57% YTD). We think there could also be some profi t taking in CPO sector given concerns over India reducing palm oil imports due to high prices India is second largest palm oil consumer). Market View Jakarta Composite Index JCI) increased by 27.0 points or 0.6% to 4,704.2 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by Property +2.46%), Trading & Investment +1.07%), and Finance +0.77%). Total transaction value reached Rp6.0tr. Regular market transaction was Rp5.7tr. IDX recorded Rp105bn net sell by foreign investors. We expect JCI to further strengthen, with today s trading range of Global Wrap In U.S., the U.S. NFIB small business optimism downed to 91.4 in February vs market consensus: 93.8). The U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.6% MoM in January vs market consensus: +0.4%). In Europe, the German trade balance surplus narrowed to EUR 17.2 bn vs market consensus: EUR 19.3 bn) in January as imports rose 4.1% on the month while exports rose 2.2 %. Trader s Pick STOCK PRICE Rec Details UNVR Buy CPIN 4205 Buy KLBF 1420 Buy MPPA 2225 Buy MAPI 6900 Buy BWPT 1380 Spec Buy WIKA 2280 Sell PTPP 1645 Sell With stochastic indicator formed a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for UNVR today in the range of We expect CPIN to further strengthen, with today s trading range of KLBF remains strong with potential upside in the range of for today. After broke the resistance level of 2185 MPPA will further increase today, in our view. MPPA s today trading range are between MAPI is expected to continue its strengthening within the support and resistance levels of BWPT formed a doji candle, yesterday. With stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a technical rebound for BWPT today in the range of Spec Buy BWPT at level 1360 with target price today at level Stochastic oscillator formed a dead cross. We expect downward movement for today in the range of PTPP formed a Overbought, we expect a technical correction for PTPP today in the range of JCI 4,704.2 Change : 0.58% Transaction Volume m) : 5,347.7 Transaction Value Rpbn) : 5,971.2 Mkt Cap Rptr) : 4,656.2 Market P/E x) : 14.7 Market Div. Yield %) : 2.1 GLOBAL INDICES Price Chg % Dow Jones 16, Nasdaq 4, Nikkei 15, ST Times 3, FTSE 6, Hang Seng 22, REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT NAB Chg % Trim Kapital 7, Trim Kapital + 2, Trim Syariah SHM 1, Tram Consumption + 1, Trim Komb 2 1, Trim Syariah B 2, Trim Dana Stabil 2, Trim Dana Tetap 2 1, Tram PDPT USD Tram Reguler INC Tram Strategic Fund 1, Trim Kas 2 1, DUAL LISTING NYSE ) USD) Rp) Chg % TLKM , OTHERS Chg % USD IDR 11, yr Indo Govr bond %) yr US govt bond %) Spread %) EIDO Foreign YtD USDmn) PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - DAILY 1

2 News of the Day 28 days to legislative election - Jokowi to be PDIP s presidential candidate? Various surveys and our own analysis of local elections in recent years suggest that PDIP and Golkar are likely to gain ~20% of the seats, with either Demokrat, Gerindra, PKB, or PAN a distant third at 10%. A party requires at least 20% of seats or 25% of popular vote to have its own presidential candidate, implying that PDIP and Golkar are the only two that could pass the presidential threshold on their own other parties need to form coalitions to fi eld their candidates). The most recent development is mounting rumors that Megawati who has fi nal say on PDIP s presidential candidate) has fi nally decided to support Jokowi as PDIP s presidential candidate, which could boost PDIP s seats by approximately 10% from 20% to 30%) IF announced before the 9 April voting for legislative election. Jokowi has also been reported by Detik.com to have said his goodbye to Jakarta civil servants Jokowi is currently governor of Jakarta). A Jokowi candidacy confirmation will be positive for the overall market currency, bonds, equity), particularly on contractors, property particularly industrial property and low end housing), cement, and BBTN which focuses on low-end housing loans). Heavy equipment distributors UNTR sells 23% of total volume to construction sector in FY13, 28% in Jan14) will also benefi t, although to a lesser extent. The positive reaction to Jokowi candidacy rumors is already evident yesterday, as Jakprop sector which includes property and construction) up 2.5%, higher than index 0.6% rise. Within construction sector, our top picks are WIKA Buy, TP 2850) and PTPP Buy, TP 1800). We have HOLDs on all industrial properties, of which we like KIJA best as the laggard in the sector, up only 16.6% YTD versus BEST 48% and SSIA 57%. Legislative election schedule: 16 March - 5 April Campaigning 30 March - 6 April Voting overseas 9 April Voting in Indonesia 7-9 May Determining parties that pass the parliamentary threshold 3.5% of national vote) May Allocation of parliamentary seats May Submission of disputes to Constitutional court Current Px PE2014 PE2015 Rec. Target Px WIKA 2, Buy 2,850 WSKT Buy 690 PTPP 1, Buy 1,800 ADHI 2, Buy 2,550 2 DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk -

3 News of the Day ASII: Agya and Ayla sales above target In 2M14, Astra-Toyota Agya sales reached 13,983 units, above company s target of 5,000 units per month. Astra-Daihatsu Ayla sales in 2M14 reached 8,408 units, also above monthly target of 4,000 units per month. Honda Brio Satya booked the third largest 2M14 sales volumes of 5,358 units. Source: Bisnis Indonesia Comment: This is positive for ASII. However, we remains reviewing ASII s forecasts and recommendation. EXCL: New Loan USD365mn EXCL will receive new loan worth of USD365mn from foreign banks to be used to partially repay PT Axis Telecom Indonesia s liabilities to specifi c creditor. Previously, EXCL already received loan from their parent company of USD500mn or around Rp5.7tr. EXCL liabilities FY2013 was Rp24.98tr, with equity Rp15.3tr DER 1.36x). The new loan of Rp5.7tr will increase DER to 2.01x. Source: Bisnis Indonesia JSMR: Will distribute cash dividend amounted to Rp78.6/sh JSMR will distribute Rp532bn as cash dividends translated to Rp78.6/sh or 1.4% dividend yield. Hence, the dividend payout ratio is 40%. JSMR targets 2014 earnings to drop by 9.8% YoY to Rp1.2tr due to higher expansion cost, while 2014 revenues is targeted to up by 20.3% YoY to Rp7.0tr. Source: Kontan Demand on Sukuk auction dropped 51.5% from previous auction Yesterday, auction of Sukuk managed to collect funds amounted to Rp2.8tr or 51.5% lower than previous auction held on 24 Feb, which reached Rp5.7tr. Government offered 4 series of Sukuk, while SPN-S is the most salable Sukuk with demand of it reached Rp1.5tr or 55.4% of total offered. The Sukuk has 6.04% % yield range. However, the government only absorbs funds worth Rp1.3tr or 46.0% of total deals. Source: Bisnis Indonesia KIJA: Despite slowdown in industrial land sales, KIJA is set for expansion by establishing a JV Company with Sembawang Corporation Sembcorp) and Plaza Indonesia PLIN). As with Sembcorp, KIJA is set for development of 860ha of industrial land in Kendal, Central Java by next year, whereas JV with PLIN should start by end of this year, in which it will develop prime residential and commercial area in Jababeka, Cikarang. Additionally, the strengthening IDR against USD should lead the Company to post forex gain this year. KIJA is currently traded at 70% discount to its RNAV vs. our property counters average at 50%). We currently have a Hold at TP of Rp250/share. Source: Bloomberg PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - DAILY 3

4 Statistics * -./ / 0167 ;=/404 +%=)%D& $%&'$')* # BE)E $%&'$')* )B0E!C.8 $%&'$')* # )B0E%$%0= INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- %) YTD%) &&0,%) # 3 # 25 # 371+& &08 # 37+.&08 37+&08 # 37&08 ## 37+&08 # # ## 37:+&08 # 37!!&08 # 37A&08 # # COMMODITIES +/- %) YTD%) :&08 ##!"# /0%=CDD= # +)E/)=A), ## 2)%=* 2/,E)=%)9B "&" =/4/&%/4CE&&0 +%6B0=CE&&0 # %&CE&&0 # '&" A=CE< %=$0CE< # )!)=)*,%)4CE&&0 # # /DD03!CB' &CD/ #?0)ECD/ # # ### *D0)&,CD/ # %60&&0,%)CB' # INDICES REGION +/- %) YTD%)! "! # 93&0,&/,E%)= +),)-../0 # 1. 2&& # 304)& # 1)&60 # 9%,, # # :;.! :)<%= #. /,,%) #.+. &%) # # +1 &%) +%BB0% 3))&! 3))& > >&'B&' # 7! 70) #. )%9)& # 1 %&')0 $$%.?)%=)&!!!?%=%%&0, # 72 )=)*,%) ## ;++. ;%0E&)4 ## # # KURS REGION +/- %) YTD%)../ A:! &%E07%&'4 >1 9%E<0=)& ## )&)) /,E)=%) # +@ +09@0)=)& # 3! 3))& +?%&) >7 >&'B&' A %&')0 # /%)? &&0,%) JCI WINNERS %) JCI LOSERS %) JCI VALUE Rpmn) JCI VOLUME Lot) JCI FREQ X) & *; : $& # : ! / &%% *':$ '% % %: &# %< 61/ / $! 9'': $ '#$ ##& %' $ 9& ::!! :: +1 2/ /2.-8/ /4/ 3/ / / /! ! + 66/.-5/ / :72 72:1 ++!2+ :: / /-- 8.4/ DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk -

5 World Economic Calendar Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior 4-Mar-14 US ISM New York Feb US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Mar Mar-14 US ADP Employment Change 000's) Feb US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb CH HSBC/Markit Services PMI Feb EC GDP SA QoQ %) 4Q P EC GDP SA YoY %) 4Q P EC PMI Services Feb F EC PMI Composite Feb F EC Retail Sales MoM %) Jan GE PMI Services Jan Mar-14 US Initial Jobless Claims 000's) 1-Mar US Factory Orders %) Jan EC ECB Announces Interest Rates 6-Mar GE Factory Orders MoM %) Jan Mar-14 ID Foreign Reserves USD bn) Feb US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 000' s) Feb US Trade Balance USD bn) Jan US Unemployment Rate %) Feb Mar-14 CH Trade Balance USD bn) Feb CH Exports YoY %) Feb CH Imports YoY %) Feb Mar-14 CH PPI YoY %) Feb CH CPI YoY %) Feb Mar-14 JN GDP SA QoQ %) 4Q F JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ %) 4Q F Mar-14 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb US Wholesale Inventories MoM %) Jan GE Exports SA MoM %) Jan GE Imports SA MoM %) Jan Mar-14 EC Industrial Production SA MoM %) Jan Mar-14 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate %) 13-Mar US Initial Jobless Claims 000's) 8-Mar US Retail Sales Advance MoM %) Feb US Import Price Index MoM %) Feb US Import Price Index YoY %) Feb US Business Inventories %) Jan CH Retail Sales YTD YoY %) Feb CH Industrial Production YTD YoY %) Feb JN Machine Orders MoM %) Jan JN Machine Orders YoY %) Jan Mar-14 US PPI Final Demand MoM %) Feb US PPI Final Demand YoY %) Feb US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Mar P GE CPI MoM %) Feb F GE CPI YoY %) Feb F Mar-14 US Empire Manufacturing Mar US Industrial Production MoM %) Feb EC CPI MoM %) Feb Mar-14 US CPI MoM %) Feb US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM %) Feb US CPI YoY %) Feb US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY %) Feb US Housing Starts 000's) Feb US Building Permits 000's) Feb US Building Permits MoM %) Feb GE ZEW Survey Current Situation Mar PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - DAILY 5

6 RESULT 4Q13 Date Ticker Net profit YoY Trimegah est Consensus % of Trimegah % of Consensus Comment 1/22/2014 BBRI 21,354 14% 20,440 20, % 105.0% 2/10/2014 ADHI % % 115.9% 2/10/2014 BBTN 1,562 15% 1,555 1, % 106.9% 2/10/2014 BMRI 18,204 17% 17,370 17, % 105.5% 2/13/2014 BDMN 4,042 75% 4,081 3, % 101.6% 2/14/2014 WSKT % % 108.8% 2/18/2014 PTPP % % 108.7% 2/19/2014 BBNI 9,054 29% 8,709 8, % 112.6% 2/20/2014 JSMR 1,336-21% 1, % 2/24/2014 SMGR 5,370 42% 5, % BBRI's growth was coming from lower provisioning expenses -15% YoY) while PPOP growing at 12%. ADHI booked lower impairment cost of Rp65.4bn vs. Rp226.5bn in FY12 BBTN 4Q13 Earnings was in-line with our estimates but beat consensus by 23%. NPL is still above our estimates BMRI expanded its NIM, with fl at NPL 1.9%) resulting in 4Q 13 beating our estimate by 18% and consensus by 21%. BDMN growth came from non mass market segments Gross margin jumped to 10.7% in 4Q13 compared to 7.4% in 3Q13 resulting higher FY13 gross margin of 9.4% FY12: 8.3%) PTPP experienced improving margins in 4Q13. Gross margin in 4Q13 increased to 12.4% from 10.4% in 3Q13. BBNI loan growth was boosted by corporate segment mostly to SOEs with government related projects. We expect further earnings estimate upgrade for earnings down 21.0% YoY due to lower revenues -12.4% YoY) and higher growth of operating expenses +25.2% YoY) SMGR FY13 in-line, sales volume in FY13 reached 27.8mn ton +27.0% YoY) 2/26/2014 MPPA % % 110.1% In-line with TRIM est, Above consensus 2/27/2014 PTBA 1,826-37% 1,800 1, % 108.7% In-line with TRIM est, Above consensus 2/28/2014 SMCB % % 2/28/2014 ASII 19,417-15% 18,040 18, % 105.3% 2/28/2014 AALI 1,801-25% 1,588 1, % 114.5% 2/28/2014 UNTR 4,834-16% 4,562 4, % 103.5% 3/6/2014 BBCA 14,254 22% 13,246 13, % 102.8% SMCB booked higher fi nance cost at Rp521bn, almost three-fold than Rp182.0bn in FY12. SMCB s interest bearings debt stood at Rp3.6tr by end 2013 compared to Rp1.6tr by end 2012 We expect a consensus 2014 earnings upgrade on ASII given this better than expected 4Q13 results. However, we believe competition will intensify on auto segment specially in MPV. This better than expected results will be positive for AALI in the short term. However, sustainability remains a concern as the company currently traded at higher than historical average forward PE 12.5x). This better than expected results mostly backed by higher than expected forex gain as the company s subsidiaries use USD as their functional currency while UNTR s consolidated financial statement were reported in rupiah. Beat estimate on higher NIM, PPOP up 29% YoY, but provisioning was high +304% YoY) to anticipate lower asset quality, resulting in 22% YoY earnings growth. 3/7/2014 TLKM 14,205 11% % In-line with expectation. 6 DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk -

7 RESEARCH TEAM Sebastian Tobing, CFA Head of Research & Institutional Sales Frederick Daniel Tanggela Robby Hafi l robby.hafi l@trimegah.com) Melvina Wildasari melvina.wildasari@trimegah.com) Maria Renata maria.renata@trimegah.com) Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA gina.nasution@trimegah.com) Hapiz Sakti Azi Research Associate hapiz.azi@trimegah.com) Paula Ruth Research Associate paula@trimegah.com) Rovandi Research Associate rovandi@trimegah.com) EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM JAKARTA Nathanael Benny Prasetyo Head of Retail ECM benny.prasetyo@trimegah.com) Ariawan Anwar Artha Graha, Jakarta ariawan.anwar@trimegah.com) Windra Djulnaily Pluit, Jakarta windra.djulnaily@trimegah.com) Musji Hartono Mangga Dua, Jakarta musji.hartono@trimegah.com) Ferry Zabur Kelapa Gading, Jakarta ferry.zabur@trimegah.com) Very Wijaya BSD, Jakarta very.wijaya@trimegah.com) EAST INDONESIA Wiranto Sunyoto Branch Area Manager wiranto.sunyoto@trimegah.com) Sonny Muljadi Surabaya, Jawa Timur sonny.muljadi@trimegah.com Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti Denpasar, Bali dwihapsari.wijayanti@trimegah.com) Ivan Jaka Perdana Malang, Jawa Timur ivan.perdana@trimegah.com) Agus Jatmiko Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur agus.jatmiko@trimegah.com) Arifi n Pribadi Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan arifi n.pribadi@trimegah.com) WEST JAVA Asep Saepudin Bandung, Jawa Barat asep.saepudin@trimegah.com) Ariffi anto Cirebon, Jawa Barat ariffi anto@trimegah.com) SUMATRA Juliana Effendy Medan, Sumatera Utara juliana.effendi@trimegah.com) Tantie Rivi Watie Pekanbaru, Riau tantierw@trimegah.com) Hari Mulyono Soewandi Palembang, Sumatra Selatan hari.mulyono@trimegah.com) CENTRAL JAVA Agus Bambang Suseno Solo, Jawa Tengah agus.suseno@trimegah.com) Andrew Jatmiko Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah andrew.jatmiko@trimegah.com) Muhammad Ishaq Semarang, Jawa Tengah muhammad.ishaq@trimegah.com) PT 7 Trimegah Securities Tbk - DAILY 7

8 PT Trimegah Securities Tbk Gedung Artha Graha 18 th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav Jakarta 12190, Indonesia t f DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affi liated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any offi cer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company s equity securities.