Daily Bulletin IDX 3, Daily Wrap. January 2, 2012 IS AT , TLKM ,
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- Gervais Willis
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1 Daily Bulletin January 2, 2012 IDX 3,822.0 Change : 0.35% Transaction Volume (m) : 5,124.7 Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 2,768.7 Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 3,531.3 Market P/E (x) : 12.0 Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.8 Global Indices Chg (%) Dow Jones 12, Nasdaq 2, Nikkei 8, ST Times 2, FTSE 5, Hang Seng 18, Dual Listing (NYSE) Chg (%) IS AT , TLKM , Commodity Price Chg (%) Crude OIL (NYMEX) Gold (LME Spot) 1, Nickel (LME 3M) 18, Tins (LME 3M) 19, CPO (Rotterdam CIF) 1, Rubber (Tokyo 1M) 3, Coal (Weekly 30/12) Market Movers Chg (%) Daily Wrap Regional was closed 2011 with a worry and optimism of EU debt crisis and the US recovery in economic data. Spain already expects it budget deficit will reach as much as 8% of FY12 GDP, vs earlier gauges a 6% and China said may face downside pressure next year although 2011 GDP growth reached 9%. US -0.4% The S&P fell 0.4% to as the concern of EU debt crisis overshadowed optimism in US economy. China may face downside pressure next year even though growth in FY11 expected to be stands at 9%. EU +1.1% The European stocks rose 1.1% to as the US data showed recovery and optimism that euro-area policy makers will contain the debt crisis. Spain said its budget deficit will reach 8% of 2012 GDP, more than previous forecast at 6%. Asia +0.4% Asian stocks gained 0.4% to as the optimism toward US recovery. ID +0.3% JCI was closed gain 0.3% to Commodities +0.3% Commodities gained 0.3% to as the industrial metals post the highest gained for 2.1%. The gold increased for 1.7% to and oil lost 0.82% to TPIA 2, ADMF 12,700 1, SMGR 11, UNTR 26, UNVR 18, BBCA 8, TLKM 7, IMAS 12,800-1, SMAR 6, MAYA 1, Exchange Rate BI Rate % US$ - IDR 9, Yen - IDR SGD - IDR 6, EUR - IDR 11, Corporate Action HERO EGM 6-Jan-12 Tiphone Mobile (IPO) EGM 12-Jan-12 BNII EGM 16-Jan-12 BNGA EGM 26-Jan-12 JSMR EGM 30-Jan-12 1
2 TRADE NEWS DATA JCI (IHSG) 3, % YTD (Rp) 3.2% Volume (m) : 5,125 YTD (USD) 1.4% Nilai (Rpbn) : 3,328 Moving Avg 20day 3,776 Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 3,439 Moving Avg 50day 3,759 Market P/E (x) : 16.2 Moving Avg 200day 3,779 Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.4 Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%) YTD (%) MSCI Indonesia 4, JII LQ JAKFIN Index JAKINFR Index JAKMINE Index 2, JAKCONS Index 1, JAKTRAD Index JAKMIND Index 1, JAKBIND Index JAKPROP Index JAKAGRI Index 2, Commodities +/- (%) YTD (%) CRB Index Oil & Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas COAL (Rotterdam) COAL (Amsterdam) COAL (Australia,wk) Industrial Metals Alumunium 1, Nickel 18, Tin 19, Prescious Metal Gold 1, Silver Soft Commodities CPO (Malaysia) 3, CPO (Netherland) 1, Rubber 3, Corn Wheat Soybeans 1, Rice (Indonesia) 8, Regional Indices +/- (%) YTD (%) MXWO MSCI Word 1, SPX S&P 500 1, US Dow Jones Industrial 12, Nasdaq US 2, Europe EURO 50 Europe FTSE London 5, DAX Jerman 5, CAC France 3, SMI Swiss 5, BRIC BOVESPA Brazil 56, MICEX Russia 1, SENSEX India 15, NIFTY India 4, SHCOMP China 2, SZCOMP China Developed ASIA Nikkei Japan 8, TPX Japan HIS Hong kong 18, KOSPI S.Korea 1, TAIEX Taiwan 7, FSSTI Singapore 2, ASEAN SET Thailand 1, PCOMP Philipines 4, KLCI Malaysia 1, VNINDEX Vietnam Currency +/- (%) YTD (%) EURUSD Euro GBPUSD United Kingdom USDCHF Switzerland USDCAD Canada AUDUSD Australia NZDUSD New Zealand USDJPY Japan USDCNY China USDHKD Hongkong USDSGD Singapore Rupiah Indonesia 9, Winners Losers Value (Rpbn) Volume (Lot) Freq (x) Stock Price (%) Stock Price (%) TPIA 2, MAYA 1, ADMF 12, SMAR 6, BTPN 3, IMAS 12, SMGR 11, CTRA ISAT 5, FASW 4, UNTR 26, INCO 3, ITMG 38, TLKM 7, BYAN 18, BBNI 3, UNVR 18, BDMN 4, BMRI 6, BBCA 8, ENRG 145,064 BMRI 114,118 TLKM 76,875 GGRM 75,614 BBRI 74,613 ITMG 68,180 SMGR 60,734 ASII 55,841 BBNI 53,626 AKRA 47,878 ENRG 1,612,818 ELTY 258,946 PNLF 251,553 DEWA 149,896 KIJA 125,518 CNKO 121,287 MYRX 113,708 BHIT 109,744 SDRA 103,132 INAF 85,384 ENRG 4,113 TMPI 3,006 BHIT 2,369 BULL 1,633 CPIN 1,609 IGAR 1,362 BMRI 1,361 ADRO 1,301 PNLF 1,214 INAF 1,156 2
3 NEWS Daily News Banking: 3 Islamic Banks Stop Gold Fiduciary Bank: BI Postpone Plan For Multiple Licensing BBTN: Need Rp5tr Capital to Reach 25% Loan Growth BORN: Revenue to Reach USD1.1bn CMNP: Move Into Mining Infrastructure CKRA: Aiming Mining Companies JSMR: Four Toll Road Groundbreaking in Early 2012 RAJA: Right Issue Rp230Bn SMGR: Propose New Cement Factory in East Kalimantan NEWS Banking: 3 Islamic Banks Stop Gold Fiduciary BRI Syariah, BNI Syariah, and Bank Syariah Mandiri (BSM) stop its gold fiduciary services for new customers due to declining gold prices. A few Islamic banks also tighten the regulation of gold fiduciary with lowering loan to value ratio, shorten the tenor, and set the gold price far below the market price. As of Dec'11, BRI Syariah gold fiduciary reaches Rp1.5tr or 16.7%. Source: kontan Bank: BI Postpone Plan For Multiple Licensing Bank Indonesia may postpone plan for multiple licensing for banks due to global uncertainty and may cause the investor turn away from Indonesia. The foreign banks such as Citibank and Standard Chartered could have a branch license while those locally incorporated could have different levels of license. Source: The Jakarta Post BBTN: Need Rp5tr Capital to Reach 25% Loan Growth BBTN will need Rp4-5tr to reach this year loan growth target which at 25%. The funding will come from bond issuance and the wholesale business. The bank is expecting Rp1tr net profit this year, compare to Rp707bn in 9M11. BBTN also prepare to spin off its sharia units before Source: Investor Daily 3
4 NEWS BORN: Revenue to Reach USD1.1bn BORN is targeting USD1.1bn revenue this year, up % compared to 2011 which estimated to reach USD mn. The sales volume target is estimated to increase 66.6% to 5mntons from 3mn tons last year, average selling price is estimated to reach USD200/ ton. BORN set aside USD300mn capex to develop AKT mines and are also a number of minerals mines owned by BRMS. Source: Investor Daily CMNP: Move Into Mining Infrastructure CMNP will invest more in the mining infrastructure as they will fund their investment through private placement of right issue possibility. CMNP already have the shareholder agreement on private placement of 10% new shares worth Rp250bn and executed in FY13. CMNP will also issue bond in FY12 to funds the Depok-Antasari toll road projects and acquire one of 24 trans-java toll road also to be involved in 6 inner toll road consortiums. Source: Investor Daily CKRA: Aiming Mining Companies PT Citra Kebun Raya Agri Tbk allocated most of the proceeds from sale of PT Horizon Agro Industry worth Rp750Bn to buy the mining company. CKRA just acquire 88% shares of iron ore mining company worth of Rp500Mn. The company stated to allocate the majority for the acquisition of mining and capex. Source: Bisnis Indonesia JSMR: Four Toll Road Groundbreaking in Early 2012 Four toll roads will begin the construction in the early 2012 with total long of 63.8km and investment for Rp5.9tr. There are Gempol-Pandaan, Gempol-Pasuruan, Porong-Gempol, and Bogor Ring Road section IIA. Source: Investor Daily RAJA: Right Issue Rp230Bn PT Rukun Raharja Tbk will conduct a limited public offeringof Rp230bn. The company will use proceeds from the issuance of new shares to pay off the promissory notes amounting to Rp216bn. This year, the company prepared USD50mn capex, which will be used to acquire the upstream gas companies and business development. Source: Bisnis Indonesia SMGR: Propose New Cement Factory in East Kalimantan SMGR propose new cement factory in East Kalimantan, as the Tuban factory already fully loaded and the Java raw material already occupied. They begin the land acquisition by the cooperation with the regional government. Source: Bisnis Indonesia 4
5 TRIM: Coverage No. TICKER COMPANY Price (Rp.) Mkt. Cap (%) Target DIFF P/E(X) PBV(X) ROE(X) EPS g (X) D. Yield (%) 2-Jan-12 (Rpbn) to JCI Rec. Price (%) BANK 625, BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia 4,100 38, Hold 5, BBCA Bank Central Asia 8, , Buy 8, BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia 3,800 70, Buy 5, BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 6, , Buy 7, BMRI Bank Mandiri 6, , Buy 9, RETAILER 20, MAPI Mitra Adiperkasa 5,150 8, Buy 5, ACES Ace Hardware Indonesia 4,100 7, Buy 4, RALS Ramayana Lestari Sentosa 720 5, Hold HEAVY EQUIPMENT 98, UNTR United Tractors 26,350 98, Buy 31, CEMENT 147, SMCB Holcim Indonesia 2,175 16, Buy 2, SMGR Semen Gresik 11,450 67, Buy 11,000 (3.9) INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakasa 17,050 62, Buy 18, COAL 170, HRUM Harum Energy 6,850 18, Hold 8, PTBA Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam 17,350 39, Buy 22, ITMG Indo Tambangraya Megah 38,650 43, Hold 47, ADRO Adaro Energy 1,770 56, Buy 2, INDY Indika Energy 2,175 11, Buy 3, CPO 59, BWPT BW Plantation 1,120 4, Buy 1, SGRO Sampoerna Agro 2,975 5, Buy 4, AALI Astra Agro Lestari 21,700 34, Hold 23, LSIP PP London Sumatra Indonesia 2,250 15, Buy 3, METAL 55, ANTM Aneka Tambang 1,620 15, Hold 1, (1.7) TINS Timah 1,670 8, Hold 2, INCO International Nickel Indonesia 3,200 31, Hold 3, (11.8) (9.7) TRIM UNIVERSE 1,176, Source: TRIM Research 5
6 RESEARCH TEAM Michele Gabriela Equity Analyst T Heldy Arifien Technical Analyst Rovandi Research Assistant EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Nathanael Benny Prasetyo Head of Retail ECM Windra Djulnaily Ferry Zabur Ariawan Anwar Pluit, Jakarta Kelapa Gading, Jakarta Artha Graha, Jakarta (ferry.zabur@trimegah.com) Wirjawan Joesoef Very Wijaya Untung Wijaya Mangga Dua, Jakarta Kebon Jeruk, Jakarta Semarang, Jawa Tengah (very.wijaya@trimegah.com) Sonny Muljadi Juliana Effendy Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti Surabaya, Jawa Timur Medan, Sumatera Utara Denpasar, Bali (juliana.effendi@trimegah.com) Philip Fernando Suwandi Agus Jatmiko Asep Saepudin Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur Bandung, Jawa Barat (agus.jatmiko@trimegah.com) Donny Kristanto Setiadi Tantie Rivi Watie Agus Bambang Suseno Palembang, Sumatra Selatan Pekanbaru, Riau Solo, Jawa Tengah (tantierw@trimegah.com) Untung Wijaya Ariffianto Rr. Putri Ayu Erikusuma Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah Cirebon, Jawa Barat Malang, Jawa Timur (ariffianto@trimegah.com) PT Trimegah Securities Tbk 18 th Fl, Artha Graha Building Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav Jakarta 12190, INDONESIA Tel : (6221) Fax : (6221) DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company's equity securities. 6
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