OI Soybean. Chg Chg. Spread Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Mar Apr May Jun OI Soyoil.

Transcription

1 Soybean Complex Recap Indian Soybean Complex NCDEX % % Vol OI PCP Close Open High Low Volume OI Soybean Chg Chg Chg Chg Mar Apr May Jun Jul Spread Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Mar Apr May Jun-13 3 NCDEX % % Vol OI PCP Close Open High Low Volume OI Soyoil Chg Chg Chg Chg Mar Apr May Jun Jul Spread Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Mar Apr May Jun-13-4 Indian soyoil futures fell on Thursday on sluggish demand concerns and a drop in edible oil prices overseas. Losses were limited after India's national budget made no immediate decision on an import tax hike. India last month slapped a 2.5% import tax on crude palm oil and lifted a six-year-old freeze on base import prices, the benchmark to calculate import taxes on edible oils. Meanwhile, the government has introduced a widely-expected commodity transaction tax (CTT) of 0.01% on non-farm futures like Gold, Silver and Crude Oil etc. Meanwhile, India s GDP in the October-December period of the current financial year slipped to 4.5% - decade's lowest quarterly growth. NCDEX Spot Soybean prices on 26 February 2013:- Indore Rs. 3384/100 Kg, Nagpur-Rs. 3315/100 Kg, and Kota Rs /100 Kg. Stock position of commodities at NCDEX accredited warehouses as on 27 February 2013: - Dematted stock- 9,330 MT and Quantity in process-150 MT. 1

2 International Markets CBOT Soybean Previous Close Open High Low Chg % Chg. Mar May Jul Aug Sep CBOT Soy meal Previous Close Open High Low Chg % Chg. Mar May Jul Aug Sep CBOT Soy oil Previous Close Open High Low Chg % Chg. Mar May Jul Aug Sep U.S soybeans traded higher on the day after positive export demand data was reported this morning. weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 689,000 MT for the current marketing year and 482,000 MT for the next marketing year for a total of 1,171,000 MT. meal sales came in at 250,300 MT for the current marketing year and 24,300 MT for the next marketing year for a total of 274,600 MT. oil sales came in at 4,800 MT and as of February 21 st 2013, cumulative oil sales stand at 78% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 57%. The USDA also flashed a new sale for 123,000 MT of US soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year. The Rosario Chamber of Commerce in Santa Fe province estimated Argentina will produce 48 million MT of soybeans in the season taking into account an average yield of 2.5 kilos/hectare. Rosario's estimate is at least 9.4% below an earlier estimate of Argentina's harvest, which put the yield at 53 million MT. Oil World forecasting service said Argentine and Brazilian grain and oilseed production prospects deteriorated in recent months. They added that there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million MT or 13% will not fully materialize, partly because the anticipated increase in the area will not be accomplished. 2

3 Commitment of Traders - 2/12/2013-2/19/2013 Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Position Position Change Change Change Soybeans Futures 111,708-13, ,375 14,378-4,333-1,001 and Options 139,694-2, ,882 4,826-6,812-2,815 and Options - CIT 101,248 4, ,685 5, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN Soymeal Futures 56,027-2,413-70,089 1,504 14, and Options 49,957-4,092-64,896 3,268 14, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN Soyoil Futures -13, ,448-5,323 6,353 6,047 and Options -8,702 1,836 1,809-7,792 6,892 5,955 and Options - CIT -26,450 5,563-70,033-4, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN Arrivals of Soybean in India Arrivals (in MT) for 28 February 2013 Bhatapara 0.40 Dahod Bangalore 2.00 Hubli 2.00 Biaora Chhindwara Gadarwada Harsood 3.68 Katni Khargone Loharda 2.40 Mandsaur Momanbadodiya 3.50 Sagar Seoni Shivpuri Baran Itawa Khanpur Source: Government of India (GoI) 3

4 Charts & Outlook NCDEX-Soybean NCDEX Soybean April (3259) 4

5 NCDEX-Soyoil NCDEX Soy Oil April (676.65) NCDEX Outlook: Indian soy complex may trade range bound with soybean trading higher supported by a depreciating Rupee and Soy oil trading lower on ample supplies and weak demand. Key supports are at 3224/ and 3190/ Resistances are at 3280/ and at 3302/

6 CBOT-Soybean CBOT Soybean May ( ) 6

7 CBOT-Soymeal CBOT Soymeal May (428.6) CBOT-Soyoil CBOT Soy Oil May (49.12) CBOT Outlook: - Soy complex market may be influenced by Brazil's soybean crop progress. A strong Dollar may also support restrict upside. Key supports are at /419.4/ Key resistances are at /445.4/

8 DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent. 8