Commodity Profile of Wheat for August 2017

Transcription

1 (as on ) Commodity Profile of Wheat for August 217 Contents 1. Wheat estimates for India Wheat estimates for the World India s Wheat Production, Area under Cultivation and Yield Global Production Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat India s Top 1 Export Destinations Trade flow for Wheat Domestic and International Price Movement Minimum Support Price (MSP) Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis Future prices of wheat Trade Policy Significant changes for the month C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

2 1. Wheat estimates for India(crop year and marketing year ) (Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes) Table 1: Estimated Figure of Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of India Particulars/Year June,217 Source Estimate## Opening Stock in Central Pool DoFPD 97.44** 92.8 Production N.A DES 5.75* 2.9 Total Imports.38* DoC Availability -.26* 1.26 Total Export.9* DoC Ending Stock in Central Pool DoFPD Total Availability for Domestic Consumption - Sources: Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoFPD); Department of Commerce (DoC); Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES); Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DoAC). **As per 3 rd Advance estimates for released on Availability: opening stock in central pool plus production plus Imports; Total Availability for Domestic Consumption: Availability minus (total export plus ending stock in central pool) ## For preparing estimates of , opening stock in central pool is from Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoFPD) and Production, Imports, Exports and Ending Stock is last 3 years average. *The figure of export and import is for the month of April - June, 217. It may be seen that FCI stocks ending in June, 217 is million MT against 3.18 million MT in the corresponding period of last year. 2. Wheat estimates for the World (Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes) Table 2: Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of the World Particular/Year ( Projected) Production Trade Consumption Carry Over Stock Source: International Grains Council (IGC) During and , the world production has increased by 2.16 percent (from 738 million MT to 754 million MT) and world trade increased by 5.42 per cent, (from 166 million MT to 175 million MT) respectively, and consumption has increased by 2.5 percent (from 718 million MT to 736 million MT). As a result, change in carry over stock has increased by 8.44 percent. 2 C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

3 Million Tonnes Area(in Million Hectare) 3. India s Wheat Area and Production during 26-7 to Figure1: Wheat Area and Production Production(in Million Tonnes) Area Production Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics India s wheat production has increased in last 1 years at CAGR of 2.46 percent Area under wheat cultivation has also increased in last 1 years at CAGR of.77 percent. 4. Global Production Figure 2: Major Wheat Producing Countries Source: United States Department of Agriculture Database. As a country, China was the leading wheat producing country followed by India and Russia. India s share in global wheat production was recorded at percent in the year C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

4 Million Tonnes Million Tonnes 5. Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat Figure 3 :Major Exporting Countries Source: Comtrade US was the leading wheat exporting country in the world followed by Russia and Australia in India s share in global exports was around.22 percent in the year Figure 4: Major Importing Countries Source: Comtrade As shown in the Figure 4, Egypt was the largest importing country in the world followed by Indonesia, Algeria and in Brazil C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

5 Value in Rs. Crores 6. India s Top 1 Export Destinations Figure 5: Top 1 export Destinations Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) In , India s major export destinations were Nepal, Bangladesh, UAE and United Kingdom. 7. Trade flow for Wheat (Quantity in million MT) Table 3: India s Wheat Trade During to Year Export Import (April-June).9.38 Source: Depart. Of Commerce India s wheat export in has declined by 57% over the corresponding period of the previous year in view of surplus global stocks and higher domestic prices. 5 C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

6 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 July-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Price in Rs./Tonnes 8. Domestic and International Price Movement Figure: 6 Domestic Vs International Price Movement International prices (US No 2, Soft Red Winter Wheat) Domestic Prices, All India Monthly Average(FAQ Variety) Source: Agmark database (for Domestic Price); FAO database (for international Prices) Domestic prices have been higher than that of International prices since April 215 onwards. 9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) (Price in Rs./Quintal) Table 4: The MSP of Wheat for the last 5 years Year Wheat Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) A secular increase of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat is recorded. This figure has increased by 2.4 percent in the last 5 years. 1.1 Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis Arrivals Apr-July, (Cumulative) Table 5- Wheat arrivals in Major Domestic Mundis Arrivals April- June, (Cumulative) Arrivals Apr- July, (Cumulative) 6 C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t % Change Over Previous Month) (Quantity in tons) % Change(Over Previous Year) Kanpur Mathura Bhopal Indore Khanna Nagpur Jalana Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch,

7 The cumulative figure for wheat arrival in major Mandis shows that Kanpur was leading in July 217 and Mathura in July 216. So far percentage change of wheat arrivals in major domestic mandis in July 217 over July 216 is concerned; all the above mandis (except Kanpur, Indore, Jalana) showed a negative growth. 1.2 Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis Name of market Prices June,217 Table 6: Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis Prices May,217 Prices June,216 % Change (Over Previous Month) (in Rs/Quintal) % Change (Over Previous Year) Kanpur Mathura Bhopal Indore Amritsar Khanna Nagpur Jalana Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch database 11. Futures prices of wheat Contract Month As on (7 Aug 217) Week Ago (31 July 217) Month Ago (7 July 217) Table 7: Future price 3 Month Ago (7 May 217) 6 Month Ago (7 Feb 217) 1 Year Ago (7 Aug 216) (Unit in USD/Ton) % Change over previous year Sep Dec Mar May Jul Sep Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Future price for wheat is expected to decrease over the previous year as shown in the Table 7. 7 C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t

8 12. Trade Policy 12.1 Export Policy: Export of wheat is free under the extant export policy of Government of India Import Policy: Import of seeds is restricted. Whereas, import of wheat for human consumption is permitted through State Trading Enterprises Table 8: Import Policy HS code Item description Import policy Standard Bound Duty Duty Applied duty 1111 Durum wheat: Of seed quality Restricted 1 1 5% 1119 Other Durum wheat Free* 1 1 1%** 1191 Other: Wheat of seed quality Restricted 1 1 5% Other wheat Free* 1 1 1% ** Meslin State Trading Enterprises 1 1 1% Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Revenue, and World Trade Organization (WTO) database. *Import of wheat (HS code and 11991) made free till further order vide DGFT s Notification No.35 Dated 8 th October 27 ** Import duty on wheat has been reduced from 25% to 1% vide Notification No. 51/216- Customs dt 23 rd September, 216.The Import duty on wheat was brought down to Zero vide Notification No. 6/216- Customs dt 8 th December, 216. Recently, Import duty on Wheat has been increased from Zero to 1% vide Notification No. 1/217- Customs dt 28 th March, Significant Changes for the Month: NIL Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from various sources believed to be reliable. This Department will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the uses of the information provided in the commodity profile. 8 C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r W h e a t A u g u s t