Contents (Click on the topics)

Transcription

1 Contents (Click on the topics) 1. Soybean Complex Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Soybean Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1

2 Soybean Complex Recap India Soybean Complex NCDEX % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soybean Mar Apr May Jun Jul Spread Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Mar Apr May Jun NCDEX % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soy Oil Mar Apr May Jun Jul Spread Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 May-2013 Mar Apr May Jun Indian Soy complex prices closed lower on Tuesday following lower overseas prices. Weaker Rupee was a supportive force. Govt. data shows, area under Rape Mustard seed is 6.72 million hectares vs million hectares in corresponding period last year. According to Govt. s 2 nd Advance estimates, India will produce million MT of Soybeans & 7.36 million MT of RM Seed in These estimates are higher from market estimates. India s Solvent Extractors Association expects this year s RM Seed crop at 7.2 million MT. India's Soymeal exports rose 25.4% in January from a month ago, fuelled by improved demand from Thailand, Vietnam and Iran. India exported 619,793 MT of Soymeal in January, up from 494,456 MT in the previous month. NCDEX Spot Soybean prices on 26 February 2013:- Indore Rs /100 Kg, Nagpur - Rs /100 Kg, Kota Rs /100 Kg. NCDEX prices on 26 February 2013: Refined Soy oil Indore Rs /10 Kg, Refined Soy oil Mumbai Rs /10 Kg, Refined Soy oil Nagpur Rs /10 Kg, Soy meal Indore Rs /MT, Yellow Soy meal Export (Kandla) - Rs.29500/MT. As of 25 February 2013, NCDEX recorded 9210 MT of Soybean at its warehouses. 2

3 International Soybean Complex CBOT Soybean Previous Close Open High Low % Mar May Jul Aug Sep CBOT Soy Meal Previous Close Open High Low % Mar May Jul Aug Sep CBOT Soy Oil Previous Close Open High Low % Mar May Jul Aug Sep CBOT Soy complex closed mixed with Soy oil falling sharply lower on Tuesday on ideas of higher supplies of Soybeans. Rumors that China may have released domestic Soybeans out of reserves for domestic crushers led to bearish move. The move has not been confirmed but some suggest it was being done to bridge the supply gap until Brazilian vessels begin to show up. Reports of logistical delays holding up Soy exports from Brazilian ports are seen as a supportive force. Light buying support may be showing up on reports that Soybean yields in Mato Grosso have been coming in below year ago levels but some analysts still anticipate better yields once the harvest pace progresses further. CBOT - Commitment of Traders - 2/12/2013-2/19/2013 Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Change Position Change Position Change Soybeans Futures 111,708-13, ,375 14,378-4,333-1,001 and Options 139,694-2, ,882 4,826-6,812-2,815 and Options - CIT 101,248 4, ,685 5,651 Soymeal Futures 56,027-2,413-70,089 1,504 14, and Options 49,957-4,092-64,896 3,268 14, Soyoil Futures -13, ,448-5,323 6,353 6,047 and Options -8,702 1,836 1,809-7,792 6,892 5,955 and Options - CIT -26,450 5,563-70,033-4,629 3

4 Physical Market Rates Physical Market Rates - Soybean Date Commodity Rate Units 26-Feb-13 Brazil Soybean Feb FOB Paranagua $ / MT 27-Feb-13 China Imported Soybean Dalian CNY / MT 27-Feb-13 China Domestic Soybean Dalian CNY / MT 26-Feb-13 USA Soybean Feb FOB Gulf $ / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy meal Date Commodity Rate Units 27-Feb-13 Brazil Soy meal February FOB Paranagua $ / MT 26-Feb-13 Argentina Soy meal February FOB Up River $ / MT 27-Feb-13 China HQ Soy meal Dalian CNY / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil Date Commodity Rate Units 26-Feb-13 Brazil Soy Oil March FOB Paranagua $ / MT 26-Feb-13 Argentina Soy Oil March FOB Up River $ / MT 27-Feb-13 China Standard Soy Oil Dalian CNY / MT 26-Feb-13 India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai $ / MT Soybean Arrivals Soybean Arrivals for 26 February 2013 Location MT Bhatapara 2.40 Dahod Bangalore 2.00 Bhalki Bidar 5.00 Dharwar Hubli (Amaragol) 5.00 Savanur 1.00 Chhindwara Gadarwada Harsood 4.81 Jabalpur Khargone Mandsaur Ahmedpur Arvi Ausa 3.20 Deoulgaon Raja 9.60 Hingoli Jawala-Bajar 1.20 Jintur 7.80 Shrirampur 0.10 Kota Source - Dept. of Agriculture (GoI) 4

5 Weather INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (IMD) Satellite Picture for 27 February

6 Charts & Outlook NCDEX Charts NCDEX Soybean April ( ) Trade Recommendation: - None. 6

7 NCDEX Soy Oil March (685.25) Trade Recommendation: - None. NCDEX Outlook: - Resistance is at 3250/ 695 levels. While below resistance prices may move lower. CBOT Charts 7

8 CBOT Soybean May ( ) Trade Recommendation: - None. CBOT Soy meal May (425.40) Trade Recommendation: - None. 8

9 CBOT Soy Oil May (49.47) Trade Recommendation: - None. CBOT Outlook: - Ideas of higher supplies are bearish forces. Prices may move towards 1400/415/48.50 levels. 9

10 DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent. 10