Daily Market Update Report as on Monday, October 01, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Monday, October 01, 2018 Gold prices remained supported in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve s plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by The Fed raised interest rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in U.S. consumer spending increased steadily in August, supporting expectations of solid economic growth in the third quarter, while a measure of underlying inflation remained at the Fed s 2 percent target for a fourth straight month. The World Gold Council recently forecast an increase of demand on the yellow metal in the second half of 2018 as inflation rises and the global trade war takes firmer shape and hurts currencies. Despite similar concerns in the first half of the year, gold prices were stymied by dollar's strength as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy on the back of strong US data. Otherwise, Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed investment fund, steadied on Thursday at tonnes, the lowest since February 2016, with gold prices marking the fifth monthly decline in a row in August, the longest such streak in over five years. BSE gets Sebi s nod to launch gold, silver futures - BSE Ltd. has received the Sebi approval to launch delivery based futures contract in gold for 1 kg and silver for 30 kg, the exchange said in a filing late on Wednesday. Trading of these contracts will be launched on 1 October, and contract start day will be sixth day of contract launch month and last trading day will be fifth day of contract expiry month. The commodity trading session will be from Monday to Friday 10.00am to 11.30/11:55pm. Delivery center of gold and silver futures contract will be exchange-designated vaults at Ahmedabad initially and then expanding it pan India in the second phase. China's Aug net gold imports via Hong Kong hit 2018 low - China s net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell to their lowest this year in August, as Beijing curbed import quotas for banks amid a trade tussle with the United States. Imports via Hong Kong to China, the world s top consumer of the metal, decreased by 29 percent to tonnes in August from tonnes in July, according to data mailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. That is the lowest since December 2017, when imports were at tonnes. Total gold imports via Hong Kong fell 30 percent to tonnes in August from tonnes in July. IGPC for responsible sourcing of gold in India through certification - To ensure responsible sourcing of gold into the country, India Gold Policy Centre (IGPC) has suggested certification as a remedial measure. IGPC was set up at the IIM-A as the result of an agreement with the World Gold Council, the market development body of the global gold industry. The aim was an research and analysis institution on gold and related policies. Responsible sourcing of gold is being championed by the OECD, the 36-nation inter-government body. This followed reports of gold being sourced from mines in nations that are allegedly involved in funding of terrorism. The issue also covers sourcing of unrefined or dore gold. Terrorism apart, the idea is to avoid importing from places which cannot guarantee mining or pduction in a socially responsible way. Date Gold* Silver* 28 Sep 2018 (Friday) Sep 2018 (Thursday) Sep 2018 (Wednesday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 28 Sep 2018 (Friday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices remained supported in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve s plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread FEB - DEC APR - FEB Gold ended with gains but dropped on weekly basis as the greenback continued to rally from the Federal Reserve s interest rate hike and strong economic data. The Fed raised interest rates and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before. Physical demand saw an uptick in the world's biggest gold consumer, China, after prices fell to six-week lows in the week, while discounts narrowed in India as buyers postponed purchases, awaiting a bigger fall. Premiums in China strengthened to $6.5-$8 an ounce from last week's $4-$6. Buying remained subdued in India, the second biggest buyer of the precious metal, as buyers delayed purchases. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared to discounts of $5 last week, the highest in three months. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.58% to settled at while prices up 161 rupees, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30881, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price returns to rise after reaching our first target at , to move above , but we notice that the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price, to keep the bearish trend scenario active conditioned by the price stability below , reminding you that our extended target reaches Gold ended with gains but dropped on weekly basis as the greenback continued to rally from the Federal Reserve s interest rate hike and strong economic data. The Fed raised interest rates and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before. Physical demand saw an uptick in the world's biggest gold consumer, China, after prices fell to six-week lows in the week, while discounts narrowed in India as buyers postponed purchases, awaiting a bigger fall. Premiums in China strengthened to $6.5-$8 an ounce from last week's $4-$6. Buying remained subdued in India, the second biggest buyer of the precious metal, as buyers delayed purchases. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared to discounts of $5 last week, the highest in three months. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, the data showed.technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee traded higher on buying by exporters as hike in customs duty on several products by government is expected to support the local currency. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.39% to settled at while prices down rupees, now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 72.94, a move above could see prices testing USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread NOV - OCT DEC - NOV Rupee traded higher on buying by exporters as hike in customs duty on several products by government is expected to support the local currency. Meanwhile, the dollar rose to two-week high against major currencies after the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates as expected for the eighth time and signalled a faster tightening path ahead. Expectation of robust US economic growth is further supporting sentiments for dollar. The finance ministry wants the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider more steps to improve liquidity in the system, including reducing the amount of funds banks must set aside with it, a senior ministry official said on Tuesday, amid a bubbling credit crunch in the Indian shadow banking industry. Prime Minister Narendra Modi s government faces a new challenge that could derail growth at a time when surging fuel costs and a slumping rupee are buffeting the world s fastest growing major economy. The RBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the proposed ideas. The finance ministry, RBI and India s markets regulator have this week all said they all are closely monitoring the liquidity crunch that has hit non-banking financial companies (NBFC), and they stand ready to intervene. As far as the government is concerned, we are closely in touch with the situation and monitoring the situation, he said, adding banks were confident of maintaining liquidity for various sectors as required. Technically now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 29JAN CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN DGCX SILVER 28NOV Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6